WGBH TEST >> TONIGHT ON GREATER BOSTON REPUBLICANS ARE NO CLOSER TO ELECTING A SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE.

HOW LONG WILL THIS LAST, HOW DAMAGING IS THIS DYSFUNCTION AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE HEALTH OF DEMOCRACY.

NEW YORK TIMES THOMAS JOINS ME WITH THIS TAKE AWAY FROM ALL THE CHAOS.

RETIRED ARMY SPECIAL FORCES COLONEL AND EXPERT ON URBAN WARFARE JOINS ME ON WHAT A GROUND INVASION WOULD LOOK LIKE IN GAZA IF THE WAR ESCALATES.

♪ HERE WE GO AGAIN.

IT TOOK KEVIN MCCARTHY FOR DAYS AND 15 VOTES TO BECOME SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE IN JANUARY.

NOW, TWO WEEKS AND TO FEEL -- FAILED VOTE SINCE HE WAS REMOVED, REPUBLICANS ARE NO CLOSER TO FINDING A REPLACEMENT.

AFTER TRYING AND FAILING TO WIN THE SUPPORT OF NEARLY TWO DOZEN REPUBLICAN HOLDOUTS, CONGRESSMAN JIM JORDAN SPEAKER HOPES ARE NOW UP IN THE AIR.

HE ANNOUNCED PLANS FOR A PERIOD VOTE AT THE TIME OF THIS TAPING.

SEEMING TO BACK OFF OF THE PLAN FOR THE TEMPORARY SPEAKER TO DO MORE AT THE TIME.

SORTING THIS OUT IS NO EASY FEAT FOR THE GOP.

AS ILLUSTRATED IN A REPORT FROM REUTERS THAT DETAILED, "ONE SMALL SIGN OF THE UNCERTAINTY LEGGING THE REPUBLICANS PLAYED OUT IN THE ROOM.

STAFF AND ORDERED PIZZA FOR A PARTY THAT NEVER OCCURRED, LEAVING THEM TO HAND IT OUT TO WORKERS HOW LONG CAN WE EXPECT THIS TO PLAY OUT AND WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE COUNTRY IN THE MEANTIME?

I'’M JOINED NOW BY THOMAS, OPINION COLUMNIST FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES AND FORMER POLITICAL REPORTER FOR THE WASHINGTON POST.

THINK YOU FOR BEING WITH US TODAY.

I GUESS I JUST HAVE A SIMPLE QUESTION.

A PARTY THAT CAN'’T GET 217 VOTES FOR SPEAKER IS TRYING TO GOVERN THE HOUSE OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

HOW IS THAT GOING?

>> THEY ARE IN A REAL CRUNCH AND CLEARLY -- I THINK IT'’S MORE COMPLEX THAN JUST THEY CANNOT GET TO 217.

YOU DO HAVE A PARTY THAT PRODUCES 200 VOTES FOR VERY RIGHT WING SPEAKER CANDIDATES, BOTH SCALISE AND JORDAN ARE FAR TO THE RIGHT COMPARED TO THE MEDIUM BORDER IN AMERICA, COMPARED TO EVEN THE MEDIAN BORDER IN CONGRESS.

SO, IF ANYTHING, WHAT HAS HAPPENED DEMONSTRATES THE POWER OF THE RIGHT IN CONGRESS, BUT IT'’S NOT ENOUGH POWER TO WIN.

THAT'’S LEFT THE CONGRESS BASICALLY LEADERLESS.

THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT MAKING PATRICK MCHENRY A SLIGHTLY EMPOWERED SPEAKER, TEMPORARY.

BUT EVEN THAT, IT FACES A REAL HURDLE GETTING SUPPORT.

SO, AT A TIME WHEN WE HAVE A BUDGET SHUTDOWN COMING TOWARD US , SO HOLE IS REALLY-GAZA CONFLICT AS A MAJOR ISSUE, AND THE FUNDING OF THE UKRAINE WAR AT STAKE, THE HOUSE LEADERSHIP IS REALLY NOT IN A POSITION TO PORTION AN AGENDA EITHER FOR OR AGAINST THOSE POLICIES AND IT'’S LEAVING THE COUNTRY IN A STASIS THAT IS PRETTY DANGEROUS.

IF THE COUNTRY DOES SHUT DOWN, IF THERE IS A BUDGET FAILURE AND THE GOVERNMENT SHUTS DOWN, SHUTDOWNS LIKE THIS ALMOST INVARIABLY WORK TO THE DISADVANTAGE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

AND I THINK IN THIS CASE IT WOULD BE CLEARLY TO THE DISADVANTAGE BECAUSE THERE'’S NO QUESTION WHERE THE BLAME WOULD FALL, GIVEN FOR CHAOS WITHIN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY RANKS.

>> WHEN WE LOOK AT THE TWO LEADING CANDIDATES THE SPEAKER OF THE REPUBLICANS HAVE PUT UP SO FAR, ONE IS JIM JORDAN, WHO MIGHT BE POPULAR WITH THE REPUBLICAN BASE BUT IS NOT POPULAR WITH THE PUBLIC AT LARGE AND HAS BEEN ACCUSED OF COVERING UP SEXUAL ASSAULT BY MORE THAN SIX PEOPLE UNDER OATH.

STEVE SCALISE SELF-DESCRIBED AS DAVID DUKE WITHOUT THE BAGGAGE.

WHAT DOES IT SAY ABOUT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY THAT NOT ONLY ARE THESE THE LEADING CANDIDATES, BUT THEY CANNOT COMMAND A MAJORITY OF THE HOUSE?

>> WHAT IT SAYS IS THAT THESE TWO PEOPLE CAN COMMAND A MAJORITY OF THEIR OWN PARTY, BUT THEY CAN'’T COMMAND ALL OF THEIR PARTY.

BUT IT DOES SUGGEST A WHITEBOARD SHIFT WITHIN THE RANKS OF THE HOUSE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

THAT RIGHT WORD SHIFT IS NOT ADEQUATE TO PUT IT OVER THE TOP AND GET, REALLY THEY NEED 217 VOTES TO GET THERE, BUT IF THEY ARE VERY CLOSE -- WHAT YOU HAVE IS A REPUBLICAN PARTY THAT HAS SHIFTED DECISIVELY TO THE RIGHT IN THE HOUSE, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO FORWARD A SPEAKER THAT CAN WIN THE VOTES NECESSARY TO BECOME SPEAKER.

SEE YOU HAVE -- I DON'’T KNOW HOW TO DESCRIBE THIS, A MALFUNCTION IN THE MAJORITY, THAT THE MINORITY CAN BLOCK.

IT HAS USUALLY BEEN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION WHERE THE MINORITY HAS BEEN THE FREEDOM CAUCUS AND THEY HAVE BLOCKED ACTION.

THEIR FREEDOM CAUCUS BEING VERY RIGHT WING.

NOW IT'’S REALLY MODERATES AND INSTITUTIONALISTS PEOPLE WHO SUPPORT TRADITIONAL HOUSE RULES AND SO FORTH THAT JORDAN WOULD OVERRIDE.

THOSE ARE THE FORCES NOW THAT ARE THE MINORITY BLOCKING REPUBLICAN PARTY.

GO AHEAD.

>> THIS IS THE FIRST TIME I CAN THINK OF THAT HOUSE MODERATES HAVE HELD THE LINE AND NOT CONCEDED CONTROL OF THE REPUBLICAN CAUCUS.

>> THAT'’S TRUE, THERE ARE NOT THAT MANY OF THEM.

SOME OF THE PEOPLE OPPOSING JORDAN ARE ACTUALLY SENIOR MEMBERS OF THE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE, WHO ARE NOT REALLY MODERATE, BUT THEY REALLY OPPOSES EFFORTS TO ADJUST SPENDING IN WAYS THAT ARE NOT FOLLOWING THE GUIDELINES SET BY THE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE.

BUT THERE IS A BLOCK OF MODERATE REPUBLICANS THAT ACTUALLY SHOWED SOME SPINE.

CLASSICALLY KNOWN AS THE PARTY SQUISHES, THE PEOPLE THAT DON'’T HAVE BACK LOANS.

SOME OF THEM HAVE SHOWN, IN THIS CASE, THAT THEY DO HAVE A BACKBONE AND THEY HAVE STUCK WITH IT THROUGH TO VOTES.

SOME HAVE NOT, SOME DID CAVE, LIKE TOM KEENE OF NEW JERSEY, WHOSE FATHER WAS A GOVERNOR AND A CLASSIC CENTER RIGHT REPUBLICAN, BUT STILL CENTRIST.

HE CAVED AND VOTED FOR JORDAN, AND HE'’S NOW FACING REAL PROBLEMS IN HIS DISTRICT BECAUSE OF THAT.

>> STRUCTURALLY, THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT IS DESIGNED TO PROTECT MINORITY RIGHTS.

BUT YOU HAVE WRITTEN IN YOUR LAST FEW COLUMNS THAT WHAT WE ARE ACTUALLY SEAHAM -- SEEING AS MINORITIES USING THOSE STRUCTURES TO EXACT MINORITY RULE, WHERE THE HOUSE REPUBLICAN CAUCUS MAY OR MAY NOT REPRESENT A MAJORITY OF REPUBLICANS AND CERTAINLY DOES NOT REPRESENT THE MAJORITY OF AMERICANS, IS TRYING AND SOMETIMES EXCEEDING TO CONTROL THE GOVERNMENT.

DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT EXCEPT -- DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT ASSESSMENT?

COULD YOU EXPAND?

>> THERE IS A PROBLEM THAT THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT WAS DESIGNED TO PROTECT AGAINST THE TIERNEY OF THE MAJORITY.

THE FOUNDERS WERE WORRIED THAT PEOPLE WHO DIDN'’T OWN PROPERTY WOULD OVERRUN PEOPLE WHO DID OWN PROPERTY AND THEY WOULD BECOME, BASICALLY REDISTRIBUTIVE IN A FASHION THAT WOULD TAKE PROPERTY AWAY FROM THE PROPERTY HOLDERS.

AND OTHER UPHEAVALS OF THE MASS MAJORITY VERSUS THE BETTER OFF MAJORITY.

SO, THERE ARE ELEMENTS OF THE CONSTITUTION, AND THERE ARE ELEMENTS IN THE CONGRESSIONAL RULES PROCEEDINGS IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE DESIGNED TO PROTECT MINORITIES FROM THE TIERNEY OF THE MAJORITY.

THE PROBLEM IS THAT, YOU REACH THIS STAGE WHERE THINGS BECOME SO HIGHLY POLARIZED AND SO EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES THAT A MINORITY CAN NOW REALLY PREVENT A MAJORITY FROM ACTING.

THIS HAS BECOME WHAT'’S KNOWN AS GRIDLOCK, TO SOME EXTENT, BUT THERE IS A GROWING BODY OF OPINION THAT THIS IS A REAL SOURCE OF CRISIS IN AMERICA FOR WHERE THE COUNTRY CANNOT DEAL WITH THE ISSUES THAT ARE BEFORE IT BECAUSE THE MAJORITIES ARE BLOCKED AT EVERY STEP.

>> THERE IS A STRIKING ASYMMETRY BECAUSE NANCY PELOSI HAD AN EQUALLY SMALL MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE WHEN SHE WAS THE MAJORITY LEADER A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO.

WHETHER OR NOT YOU AGREE WITH THE LAWS THAT WERE PASSED AT THAT TIME, THE HOUSE WAS EXTRAORDINARILY PRODUCTIVE WITH SEVERAL HISTORIC BILLS PASSED.

WHERE DOES THAT ASYMMETRY COME FROM?

>> THE HARD LEFT IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, WHICH YOU MIGHT CALL THE SQUAD, OR OCASIO-CORTEZ AND HER COLLEAGUES, THEY DON'’T PLAY HARDBALL IN THE SAME WAY THAT THE FREEDOM CAUCUS PLAYS.

THEY ARE MUCH MORE PARTY ALIGNED AND SUPPORTIVE OF LEADERSHIP, IN MANY CASES.

WHEREAS THE FREEDOM CAUCUS IS REALLY DEVOTED TO CHALLENGING THE LEADERSHIP.

SO MUCH MORE EXTENT THE FREEDOM CAUCUS, WHICH IS REPUBLICAN, IS INSTITUTIONALLY DESIGNED OR ITS PARTICIPANTS ARE ALL COMMITTED TO MAKE THE HOUSE TO AN EXTREME POSITION, AND IF IT DOESN'’T GO THERE, THEY WILL VOTE AGAINST IT.

SO THEIR FREEDOM CAUCUS AND ITS ALLIES HAVE REALLY EXERCISED VETO POWER IN A MUCH MORE EFFECTIVE AND STRONGER FASHION THEN IN THE HOUSE, WHERE THE LEFT WING IS REALLY NOT AS COMMITTED TO DESTRUCTION AS IT IS THE CASE ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE.

>> THIS IS A HUGE SHIFT IN THE PARTIES.

WILL ROGERS SAID HE'’S A MEMBER OF NO ORGANIZED PARTY, HE'’S A DEMOCRAT.

IN REPUBLICAN SAID, DEMOCRATS FALL IN LOVE AND REPUBLICANS FALL IN LINE.

NOW WE SEE IT IS THE REPUBLICAN PARTY THAT HAS REACHED LEVELS OF DISORGANIZATION THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE THE 1850'’S.

WHY THE CHANGE?

>> THAT'’S A GOOD QUESTION.

IF ANYTHING, THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS MORE HOMOGENEOUS THAN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, EVEN NOW.

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY RUNS FROM BASICALLY UPSCALE, COLLEGE-EDUCATED WHITE LIBERALS TO MILLIONS OF WORKING CLASS BLACKS, WHITES, AND HISPANICS.

THE ECONOMIC DIVIDE IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS A GULF.

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY HAS REAL PROBLEMS WITH THIS SURGE, BASICALLY, FIRST OF THE TEA PARTY, AND THEN, WITH TRUMP.

TRUMP LED WITH AN INSURGENCY WITHIN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY TRADITIONALLY HAD ALWAYS NOMINATED THE NEXT IN LINE, THEY CROWNED THEIR PRINCES.

AT THE BUSINESS ENTRY LOBBY AND PARTY LEADERS HAVE PICKED THE NOMINEE.

TRUMP VIOLATED THAT WHOLE TRADITION.

IN DOING SO, HE REVEALED HOW ANGRY ONE KEY SEGMENT OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS, THE WHITE WORKING CLASS.

THEY REALLY HAD FELT THEY HAD BEEN PROVIDING CRUCIAL VOTES FOR REPUBLICAN VICTORIES, BUT THEY HAD BEEN GETTING MOST NOTHING ON POLICY, ESPECIALLY ON TRADE, ON THE CULTURAL VALUES THAT THEY WERE PUSHING.

AND ON IMMIGRATION, PARTICULARLY ON IMMIGRATION.

SUDDENLY YOU HAD AN INSURGENCY WITHIN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IN 2015-2016, AND THAT INSURGENCY HAS REMAINED, BUT IT HAS CAUSED A GULF BETWEEN, BASICALLY, THE POPULIST WING, WHICH JIM JORDAN REPRESENTS, AND THE MORE ESTABLISHMENT WING, WHICH KEVIN MCCARTHY WAS CLOSER TO, AND THE BUSINESS WING, WHICH IS ALSO A CRUCIAL PART OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

SO THE DIVIDES IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY HAVE BECOME OPEN SORES.

WHICH, THEY HAD NOT BEEN.

THERE HAD BEEN A LOT OF EFFECTIVE COALITION MANAGEMENT ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, BUT THAT MANAGEMENT HAD MASKED A VERY DIS-CONTEMPT CONSTITUENCY, THE WORKING-CLASS VOTERS WHO WERE NOT PLEASED WITH HOW THE REESTABLISHMENT WAS RUNNING THINGS.

>> -- ESTABLISHMENT WAS RUNNING THINGS.

QUEX I GUESS WE WILL BE HERE FOR A WHILE.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING ME TODAY.

>> SIX JEWISH PROTESTERS WERE ARRESTED AFTER A LARGE GROUP DESCENDED ON SENATOR ELIZABETH WARREN'’S OFFICE BUILDING DEMANDING SHE CALL FOR A CEASE-FIRE.

THE URGENCY COMES AS ISRAEL PLANS A GROUND INVASION OF THE GAZA STRIP WERE NEARLY HALF OF THE POPULATION HAS BEEN TOLD TO FLEE EVEN AS SUPPORTERS REMAINED CLOSE.

>> YOU WILL SEE THAT THE SITUATION WILL BE PERMISSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT COMBAT OPERATIONS, THEN THEY WILL COMMENCE.

>> WHAT WOULD A GROUND INVASION LOOK LIKE IN GAZA WHERE MORE THAN 2 MILLION PALESTINIANS LIVE, NEARLY HALF OF THEM UNDER 18 PACKED INTO 140 SQUARE MILES OF LAND?

TO HELP ANSWER THE QUESTION, I'’M JOINED BY A RETIRED ARMY SPECIAL FORCES COLONEL.

HE'’S THE FOUNDING DIRECTOR IN WEST POINT AND CO-AUTHOR OF A BOOK, UNDERSTANDING URBAN WARFARE.

WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF URBAN WARFARE WITH MODERN WEAPONS AND AN AREA WITH THE POPULATION OF NEW YORK CITY.

I'’M NOT SURE WE HAVE TOO MANY EXAMPLES OF THAT, BUT CAN YOU TALK TO PEOPLE ABOUT WHAT THAT WOULD LOOK LIKE?

>> IT'’S GOING TO BE VERY DESTRUCTIVE.

YOU CAN LOOK AT WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN UKRAINE AND WHAT HAPPENED IN THE PHILIPPINES.

YOU CAN LOOK TO IRAQ.

TYPICALLY, IN CITIES WHERE YOU HAVE URBAN WARFARE LIKE THIS, IT'’S NOT UNCOMMON FOR 90% OF THE BUILDINGS TO BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

IT'’S PARTICULARLY DESTRUCTIVE.

WHY IS IT SO DESTRUCTIVE, BECAUSE THE ENEMY CAN SEEMINGLY HIDE ANYWHERE.

IT'’S HARD TO FIND THEM.

SEEMINGLY, DEFENSIVE POSITIONS ANYWHERE.

SO IT BECOMES EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO MOVE THROUGH AND ELIMINATE THOSE THREATS, OFTEN RESULTS IN A LOT OF DESTRUCTION, SO THAT'’S WHAT WE EXPECT TO SEE.

>> IN THE EXAMPLE YOU CITED, THE POPULATION OF THE CITY -- NOT ENTIRELY, BUT LARGELY EVACUATED BEFORE THE FIGHTING COMMENCED, I'’M NOT SURE THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN GAZA.

IS IT, AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN IF YOU ARE DOING IT WITH THE POPULATION?

>> THAT'’S WHY THEY MOVE THE POPULATION, IT'’S EASY TO CONDUCT THE MILITARY POPULATION AND YOU DISPLACE AS MANY CIVILIANS AS POSSIBLE.

THE GAZA STRIP HAS 2 MILLION.

WE ARE TALKING GAZA CITY WHERE THEY ARE LIKELY TO DO THE OPERATION CLOSER TO 600,000.

EVEN WHEN THEY HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL, THE SECOND BATTLE OF FALLUJAH, MAYBE 90% OF THE POPULATION LEAVES, BUT THERE'’S ALMOST ALWAYS 10% OF THE POPULATION THAT STAYS BECAUSE THEY HAVE NOWHERE ELSE TO GO.

NO MATTER HOW MANY THEY GET OUT OF THERE, WHICH IS A GOOD THING, IS REALLY WANTS TO MINIMIZE INNOCENT CIVILIANS GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE FIGHT.

YOU CAN EXPECT THEY ARE STILL GOING TO BE -- IS STILL GOING TO BE 50 TO 60,000 STUCK IN THE COMBAT ZONE.

>> WHAT ARE THE STEPS THAT YOU WOULD TAKE TO TRY TO MINIMIZE CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.

>> YOU WILL SEE THE CHOICE OF WEAPONS.

THEY WON'’T COME IN AND TRY TO DESTROY EVERY BUILDING.

THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE TO DO THAT WHEN THEY TAKE FIRE FROM SOMEWHERE, OR AS THEY ARE ADVANCING THROUGH.

YOU WILL SEE IT IN TERMS OF THAT.

IF THEY DIDN'’T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT CIVILIANS, THEY WILL BE MORE LIBERAL WITH THEIR USE OF FIREPOWER.

A TANK GROUND INTO EACH BUILDING OR ARTILLERY SHELLS OR BOMBS BECAUSE YOU ARE TRYING TO REDUCE THE RISK TO THE FORCE GOING IN THERE.

THE LAST THING YOU WANT TO DO IS DO THE HOLLYWOOD CLEAR A BUILDING AND HAVE FOUR PEOPLE GO IN.

AS SOON AS YOU ENTER, THEY ARE VULNERABLE.

YOU WANT TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT BEFORE YOU ENTER THE ROOM.

WHEN THERE ARE CIVILIANS AROUND, THEY WILL BE LESS LIBERAL WITH THE USE OF FORCE WHEN THEY GO THROUGH THE CITY.

>> I THINK IT'’S DIFFICULT FOR ANY CIVILIAN TO REALLY UNDERSTAND WHAT THIS KIND OF FIGHTING WILL LOOK LIKE.

TO THE EXTENT IT'’S POSSIBLE -- COULD YOU TALK US THROUGH WHAT AN OPERATION WOULD LOOK LIKE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE SOLDIERS INVOLVED?

>> YOU WILL SEE ISRAELI ARMS MEN.

NOT JUST INFANTRY GOING THROUGH THE BUILDINGS, IT WILL INVOLVE TANKS ON THE STREETS, ENGINEERS CLEARING OBSTACLES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT.

TYPICALLY, YOU WILL WANT TO AVOID BEING ON THE SCREEN.

THAT'’S WHERE YOU ARE MOST VULNERABLE.

YOU WILL WANT IT -- THE ISRAELIS WILL WANT TO MOVE WITHIN AND BETWEEN BUILDINGS.

THEY MAY BLOW A HOLE FROM ONE BUILDING TO ANOTHER THAT RESULTS WITH SOME DAMAGE.

AS TO AVOID PUTTING THEIR TROOPS AT RISK BY BEING ON THE STREETS WHERE THEY ARE MORE VULNERABLE.

THEY STARTED AS SOON AS THE ATTACK WAS DONE, THEY STARTED BOO BE DROPPING AND PUTTING IUD'’S IN IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES THROUGHOUT THE CITY FOR THE ISRAELIS AS THEY GO THROUGH.

THAT SLOWS THE MOVEMENT AS THEY EXPECT TO GO THROUGH THE CITY.

THEY WILL TAKE OUT VEHICLES AND TAKE OUT THEIR PERSONNEL.

>> WHEN WE WENT INTO FALLUJAH DURING IRAQ, SEVERAL OF MY FRIENDS WERE PART OF THAT BATTLE.

THEY TOLD ME THE CITY HAD ESSENTIALLY CEASED TO EXIST.

IS THAT THE KIND OF THING WE WILL SEE HERE?

>> THE SAYING GOES, SOMETIMES YOU HAVE TO DESTROY A CITY TO SAVE IT.

TO ELIMINATE THE HAMAS FIGHTERS, A GOOD CHUNK OF THAT CITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

IT JUST MEANS AFTER THE FIGHTING IS DONE, IT WILL TAKE A SIGNIFICANT REBUILDING EFFORT TO TRY TO GET THAT TO RETURN TO SOMEWHAT NORMAL.

KEEP IN MIND, WE ARE TALKING THE GAZA STRIP IS PROBABLY ONE OF THE MOST DEPRESSED PLACES IN THE WORLD BEFORE IT TAKES THIS URBAN FIGHTING, AND IT WILL BE IN WORSE SHAPE AFTER.

>> IS THERE ANY EXPERIENCE IN AMERICAN EXPERIENCE OR OTHER COUNTRIES RECENTLY WITH MODERN WEAPONS WHO HAVE GONE INTO A CITY THIS HEAVILY FORTIFIED?

>> THE PHILIPPINES, THEY WENT IN 2019 TO THE CITY TO TAKE OUT THE TERRORIST FIGHTERS THAT WERE THERE.

BASICALLY FOR THEM, THEY HAD TO CLEAR BLOCK I BLOCK -- BLOCK BY BLOCK.

EVERY CITY WAS AN ENEMY STRONGHOLD.

THEY WOULD HAVE TO SYSTEMATICALLY DESTROY THE BUILDING.

WHAT THEY LEARNED QUICKLY WAS, YOU NEVER ENTER WITH THE TROOPS FIRST.

THE FIRST THING THEY DID IS PUT IN ARTILLERY AROUND THERE, A BOMB ON THE BUILDING.

TRIED TO ELIMINATE ANY THREAT AS THEY ARE ADVANCING IN CLOSING DOWN THE TERRORIST FIGHTERS INTO A SMALLER AND SMALLER SPACE.

WHAT THEY LEARNED WAS, THEY INITIALLY TRY TO KEEP THE FIREPOWER TO A MINIMUM TO MINIMIZE COLLATERAL DAMAGE, BUT THEY REALIZED IT WAS THE ONLY WAY TO DO WHAT NEEDED TO BE DONE.

>> GIVEN THE SCALE OF THE SOURCES THE ISRAELI HAS ON THE SCALE OF THE OPPOSITION, HOW LONG OF AN OPPOSITION BEFORE THEY OCCUPY THE AREA?

>> IT'’S NOT SO MUCH IN TERMS OF CLEARING A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF SPACE OR HOW LONG THE OPERATION WILL TAKE.

I THINK THERE WILL BE TWO COMPETING DEMAND.

THERE IS A GO TO DESTROY HAMAS, WHICH IS NOT POSSIBLE, BUT REALLY DEGRADE HAMAS, ELIMINATE THEIR FIGHTERS, THEIR SUPPLIES, THOSE KIND OF THINGS, BUT THERE WILL BE POLITICAL CONSTRAINT.

ANY TIME YOU GO INTO AN URBAN OPERATION, IT STOPPED OUR FIRST BATTLE TO FALLUJAH.

THE SCENES ON TV, THE DESTRUCTION.

URBAN BATTLES BECOME INHERENTLY POLITICAL.

THEY KNOW -- IT HAS ALREADY STARTED, BUT WHEN THE GROUND FORCES START THE BORDER AND GO IN, THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON HOW LONG THEY FEEL THEY WILL BE ALLOWED TO POLITICALLY CONDUCT THIS OPERATION BECAUSE, AGAIN, IT'’S DESTRUCTIVE AND HAMAS IS ENCOURAGING AND PREVENTING CIVILIANS FROM LEAVING JUST TO PUT THEM IN HARMS WAY TO KIND OF REINFORCE THIS MESSAGE.

SO, I WOULD EXPECT, MAY BE FOUR WEEKS, PREVIOUS OPERATIONS IN 2009 AND 2014 WERE 15 AND 19 DAYS, RESPECTIVELY.

THIS ONE, BECAUSE IT'’S A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT ATTACK THAT HAPPENED TO THEM, THEY ARE WILLING TO ACCEPT A HIGHER POLITICAL CAUSE.

BUT BETWEEN FOUR TO SIX WEEKS AND IT WILL CULMINATE IN TERMS OF WHAT THEY FEEL THAT THEY CAN CONTINUE TO DO IN A POINT OF DIMINISHING RETURNS AND THEY WILL FILL THEY COMPLETED WHAT THEY CAN.

>> YOU SAID DESTROYING HAMAS WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE.

HAMAS WAS CREATED UNDER ISRAELI OCCUPATION.

CAN YOU EXPAND ON THAT, WHAT WOULD MAKE THAT IMPOSSIBLE?

>> WE HAVEN'’T BEEN ABLE TO DESTROY AL QAEDA, WE HAVEN'’T DESTROYED THE ISLAMIC STATE, THESE ARE TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS, BUT THE IDEA IS BASED IN ROOT CAUSES THAT THE PALESTINIANS HAVE.

YOU CAN'’T DESTROY HAMAS BECAUSE YOU CANNOT KILL THE IDEA.

IT'’S AN IDEA THAT SOME WILL ALWAYS SUBSCRIBE TO.

SO, UNTIL THE ROOT CAUSES OF THE CONFLICT DOWN THERE RESOLVE, WHICH IS BEEN GOING ON EVER SINCE THE CREATION OF THE STATE OF ISRAEL, YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE HAMAS OR SOMETHING HAMAS LIKE IT BECAUSE THE ROOT CAUSE HAS NOT BEEN RESOLVED.

>> FROM THE ISRAELI PERSPECTIVE, IF THEY DO GO IN, WHAT KIND OF CASUALTIES WOULD YOU EXPECT TO SUFFER IN THIS OPERATION.

-- OPERATION?

>> WE WILL SEE, THE ISRAELIS WILL PROBABLY TAKE DOZENS OR SEVERAL HUNDRED PRIMARILY THROUGH THESE IUD'’S, BOOBY-TRAPS, THINGS LIKE THAT, UNFORTUNATELY, PROBABLY HUNDREDS AND THOUSANDS OF CIVILIANS WILL BE KILLED, AND WHATEVER HAMAS FIGHTERS ARE WILLING TO DIE FOR THE CAUSE, WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE HUNDREDS, THAT'’S WHAT YOU ARE LIKELY TO SEE.

UNFORTUNATELY, HISTORY HAS INDICATED THAT THE CIVILIAN DEATHS COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE MILITARY CASUALTIES.

>> COLONEL, YOU HAVE DEDICATED YOUR LIFE TO STUDYING THIS NOW AFTER LEAVING THE ARMY AND HAVE WRITTEN A BOOK, WHAT ADVICE WOULD YOU GIVE IF THEY WERE GOING TO DO THIS?

>> THE BIGGEST ADVICE WOULD'’VE BEEN, PROTECT YOUR BORDERS AND PREVENT THIS OPERATION, HAMAS FROM CONDUCTING THIS OPERATION AND THEY NEVER WOULD'’VE HAD TO ENTER GAZA.

THAT WOULD'’VE BEEN MY FIRST ADVICE.

WHICH THEY DIDN'’T DO EFFECTIVELY.

BUT IF THEY ARE GOING TO GO IN THERE, YEAH, IT'’S A CHALLENGE.

IT'’S A CHALLENGE.

THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE TO GO IN THERE AND FIGURE OUT HOW TO BALANCE PROTECTING VERSUS COLLATERAL DAMAGE AND DESTROYING THE ENEMY AND REALIZING YOU CANNOT DO ALL THREE.

YOU CANNOT DESTROY THE ENEMY TO KEEP YOURSELF PROTECTED AND MINIMIZE COLLATERAL DAMAGE, SO THEY HAVE TO FIGURE OUT WHERE THEY ARE WILLING TO TAKE THE RISK ON THAT.

>> IF THEY GO IN, AND THIS LEVEL OF DAMAGE HAPPENS, WILL THEY HAVE TO OCCUPY THE AREA?

WHAT WOULD YOU EXPECT TO BE THE NEXT STAGE?

WHAT HAPPENS IN SIX WEEKS?

>> IN 2005, WHEN THEY LEFT GAZA, THEY WILL NOT OCCUPY IT.

THAT PUTS THEM AT WAY TOO MUCH RISK.

THEY ARE VULNERABLE THE WHOLE TIME THEY ARE IN THERE TRYING TO OCCUPY.

THEY ABSOLUTELY WILL NOT OCCUPY.

WHAT THEY WILL DO IS, ONCE THEY FEEL THEY DEGRADED HAMAS TO A LEVEL THAT'’S ENOUGH, BALANCE WITH HOW LONG THEY FEEL THEY CAN POLITICALLY CONDUCT OPERATIONS, THEY WILL PULL OUT OF GAZA AND THEN THEY WILL INCREASE INSTEAD OF RELYING ON THE DEFENSIVE MEASURES THAT THEY RELIED ON TO PROTECT THEIR MEASURES.

I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THEM FIGURE OUT DEFENSIVE MEASURES SO IF SOMEBODY IF THERE IS OTHER OBSTACLES TO GET THROUGH TO ATTACK AND KILL AND KIDNAP ISRAELI CITIZENS AND CITIZENS FROM OTHER NATIONS AROUND THE WORLD.

>> IF I WERE TO SUMMARIZE, IT'’S GOING TO BE A WILDLAND IT'’S GOING TO GET A LOT WORSE BEFORE IT GETS BETTER?

>> THE OPERATIONS WILL BE WORSE.

THEY ARE WAITING TO DO THAT TO ALLOW A LOT OF THE POPULATION TO LEAVE THE AREA.

THEY -- SO THEY ARE NOT CAUGHT IN THE BATTLE ZONE.

BUT IT WILL DEFINITELY GET WORSE UNTIL THE OPERATION CULMINATES, AND THEN THEY PULL OUT, THEN IT WILL START A MASSIVE REBUILDING EFFORT.

>> THANK YOU FOR JOINING US TODAY, COLONEL.

THAT'’S IT FOR TONIGHT, BUT COME BACK TOMORROW FOR TALKING POLITICS.

ADAM REILLY AND HIS PANEL WILL DIG INTO THE GOVERNOR'’S BILLION-DOLLAR INITIATIVE TO INCREASE HOUSING IN THE STATE.

THE PRODUCER OF GBH NEWS PODCAST THE BIG DIG, JOINS ON THE MASSIVE AND INFAMOUS PROJECT THAT ULTIMATELY TRANSFORMED THE CITY OF BOSTON.

THAT AND MORE TOMORROW FOR 7:00.

THANKS FOR WATCHING.

TONIGHT.

-- GOOD NIGHT.

♪