(upbeat music) - Hello and welcome to "Journal".

I'm Steve Kendall.

Early voting has begun in Ohio's March 19th, 2024 primary.

There's a lot on the ballot.

What's at stake for Ohioans?

We'll talk about that in just a moment.

Joining us in the studio are Dr. David Jackson and Dr. Nicole Kalaf-Hughes from Bowling Green State University and from Columbus, the host of the State of Ohio, Karen Kasler.

Karen, before we get to the primary, on your show on Sunday, you talked with someone from Columbus who was talking about House Bill 6.

The Democrats in the state legislature believe more needs to be done to give relief from House Bill 6, that notorious kind of bill that's created all kinds of repercussions in the state.

But the Republican, Jason Stevens says, we've got that covered.

We're done with that.

We're moving on.

Is that the gist of his description of where they're gonna approach House Bill 6 from now?

Or not approach it?

- Well, Democrats in the legislature have been trying to repeal House Bill 6, and as you will recall, House Bill 6 is this sweeping energy law that created a billion dollar bailout over 10 years for Ohio's two nuclear power plants.

That part has been repealed.

That was rate payers, all rate payers in Ohio were gonna pay that billion dollars in subsidies.

But that's been repealed.

But the rest of the law remains, which means there are subsidies for two coal fired power plants, including one in Indiana.

There are also some rules that make changes in Ohio's energy efficiency programs for its utilities and also renewable energy programs.

All of that still remains.

Democrats and even some Republicans have been trying to repeal though the rest of the law and saying, if the law is still good, let's go back and get rid of the whole thing.

It's tainted and let's pass the individual portions of House Bill 6.

Well, speaker Jason Stevens, the Republican who's in charge of the house, I spoke to him in December for our year end interview, and he said, there's no appetite for doing that.

The House Bill 6 has been looked at and gone through, and the part that has been repealed is that's it.

That's what's gonna happen.

It should be noted that one of those two power plants, the coal fired power plants, is in his district.

Well, Democrats who are frustrated with all this have now asked the Department of Justice to come in and help investigate what's been going on with House Bill 6 in its aftermath.

And obviously there are investigations going on.

There are federal charges, there are state charges, and so Republicans are pushing back saying there's already investigations going on.

There's already involvement at the federal level.

There's no need for this.

But the House Bill 6 Saga continues, basically.

- Yeah, it's the story that never ends.

And I know that it seemed as if Jason Stevens said, look, you're insulting the people that are currently investigating the rest of House Bill 6 by continually raising the issue about House Bill 6.

- Well, actually it was the governor's spokesperson who said that because of course, Democrats have suggested that Governor Mike DeWine and Lieutenant Governor John Husted need to be looked at in this.

They were subpoenaed in the civil lawsuit brought by investors in First Energy, which is the electric utility that owned a subsidiary, that owned the two nuclear power plants.

It's also pleaded guilty to bribing former Republican Ohio House Speaker, Larry Householder and former Republic Utilities Commission Chair, Sam Randazzo, who's currently going to trial.

And so the governor's spokesperson says, hey, that's, there's already this investigation going on and it's disrespectful.

We'll try to draw attention to it beyond that because there are people already working on it.

- Yeah, and the other thing is too, and we'll, as we look at the primary, this has had no real negative effect on Republicans running in the state.

This issue with House Bill 6, because obviously there was a lot of Republican support, but there was some Democratic support for it when initially passed.

That's not been a tool that people been able to use against people running for reelection or even in the primaries because it just doesn't, with the average citizen for some reason, it doesn't seem to be an issue where they would vote somebody out of office because they voted for House Bill 6.

- Well, and that's been the story I think for our Democratic candidates all along.

There have been efforts to try to use House Bill 6 to try to use the Electronic Classroom of Tomorrow, or ECOT scandal, going all the way back to Coin Gate, back in the early part of the 2000s.

And Democrats have just not been able to harness any sort of anger about possible corruption against Republicans.

Now, Republicans have said these things have been processed and they're going forward and trials are happening and that sort of thing, but it really, none of these corruption cases really seem to have an impact in terms of how voters look at Republican and Democratic candidates, at least on the state level.

- Yeah.

And now one of the things too and you guys can jump in here.

Obviously you talked with Matt Dolan, one of the candidates on the Republican side, gonna be on the primary ballot on March 19th.

When we look at the national impact, they're gonna run against Sherrod Brown, whoever wins that primary.

And Dr. Jackson, who do you think would, who do you think Sherrod Brown would least like to run against?

Or does he really care among the three that are there?

Is there a preference?

One of them has Donald Trump's endorsement, Bernie Marino.

But when you look at that primary and the impact, what is the kind of general story right there on that at this point?

- Well, Ohio has one heck of a interesting situation coming up with an election for Senate because as you point out, Senator Sherrod Brown, the only statewide elected Democrat in Ohio, outside of I think of the, maybe the Supreme Court, is seeking another term and definitely it is believed by the Republicans and the Democrats nationally, that control of the Senate likely comes through Ohio.

Now over time, because of Donald Trump winning Ohio convincingly in 2016 and 2020, and then JD Vance winning the Senate election in 2022, there has been a perception that Ohio is no longer a competitive state.

Is less of a purple state and more of a red state.

That may be true, and I don't think it is at the presidential level.

But certainly at the Senate level, we won't be seeing an absence of campaigning and money being spent here on this election in November, because like I say, and like everybody else knows, the control of the Senate likely, you know, will come through what happens in that race in Ohio.

So already money is being spent on purchasing TV time for November.

So even though we might not see the presidential election playing out in a major way in Ohio, we're certainly likely to see the Senate race playing out.

So obviously, Sherrod Brown will be the Democratic nominee, and then there's three candidates vying for the Republican nomination, each with a very different background.

So of course, Bernie Moreno has Donald Trump's endorsement.

He's never, as far as I'm aware, held statewide office.

And so he is selling himself, you know, as the outsider.

And then of course, you have Frank LaRose who has won statewide, you know, and that's certainly, you know, not an insignificant fact that, you know, if you think about it from the Democratic perspective, if Sherrod Brown didn't run for reelection, who would they pick?

They don't have an obvious bench.

Whereas the Republicans, because of having swept so many statewide offices, have a very deep bench and we're seeing that play out in this primary.

And then also, of course, you have Matt Dolan who has, you know, a little bit of money.

(all laughing) - [Steve] Just a tad.

Yeah, a little.

- [David] That certainly has name recognition, you know, in his region.

It is certainly considered or being spun as the most nearly moderate of the candidates.

So to get back to your original question after all of this filibustering, since we're talking about the Senate, my political instincts and analysis would tell me that Sherrod Brown would least like to face Matt Dolan, would least like to face the person who can sell themselves as somebody who is more nearly moderate.

- Ah, okay.

That'll be interesting because obviously Bernie Marino is pushing his endorsement.

And Karen, we come back in the next segment.

You talked with Matt Dolan and you asked him directly about that relationship and how he would deal if he was the Senator, how he would deal Donald Trump.

And I thought his response was kind of interesting.

He was, he's trying to ride down the middle, which is that moderate thing that you were talking about, David.

Back in just a moment here on "The Journal".

Thank you for staying with us on "The Journal".

Our guests are Dr. David Jackson, Dr. Nicole Kalaf-Hughes, and the host of the state of Ohio, Karen Kasler.

Karen, primary's coming up, you're in the process of interviewing the three Republican candidates that are on the primary for US Senate.

You talked with Matt Dolan, and I thought in the course of your conversation, he covered a lot of territory.

When you ask him about would he support Donald Trump, even if he'd been convicted?

And he said if he was the Republican nominee, yes, he would.

But then he also talked about where he would differ with Donald Trump if he was the US Senator from Ohio.

So talk a little bit about that conversation you had with him.

- Well, Matt Dolan is a former prosecutor, former Juga County prosecutor and former Assistant Attorney General.

And so I think it was important to ask him if he, as a former prosecutor, believes as Donald Trump does, that the Justice Department is weaponized against him.

And he said he doesn't, he says, if prosecutors... And the timing of all this is interesting.

But if prosecutors believe that there is enough evidence, then it should go forward and go into the judicial system.

But I did specifically ask, like you said, if Donald Trump were convicted, then would he still support him?

And he said, if he is the Republican nominee, yes.

Which is a lot of what we're hearing from Republicans in general.

That whoever the Republican nominee is, they're going to support that person.

Now, Dolan says, while he did not seek Trump's endorsement and he wasn't gonna get it anyway, I mean, Trump came after Dolan and his family for changing the name of the Cleveland Guardians a couple years ago.

And plus, Dolan, I think is a little bit too moderate for some Republicans who are looking more in the area of Bernie Moreno and Frank LaRose.

But Dolan did say that he would take Trump's endorsement and that he believes in Trump's policies.

They do have some differences, but he believes in Trump's policies.

He would enact those policies or work to enact those policies if he were elected.

I mean, you know, in a three-way race, it'll be interesting to see where he turns up.

In a seven-way race in 2022, he ended up third.

So what remains to be seen is where he ends up in this race.

- Yeah.

Now, one of the things you did ask him about too is obviously the ripple effects continue from the Dobbs decision regarding reproductive rights.

And he was very clear where he stood on that and where he says he has stood on that.

So talk a little about where he stands on that, because he's been an exception guy, I think, is what we were talking with him about.

- Yeah, I mean, he advocates for pro-life with exceptions.

So abortion bans with exceptions for rape, incest, or the life of the woman.

But I mean, people have kind of looked at Dolan as being a moderate.

He's not a moderate.

He is definitely conservative and made that pretty clear in our interview.

And he's certainly conservative when it comes to abortion, except allowing for exceptions, which that is a little bit of a departure from some candidates.

So the (IVF) decision came down right after we did that interview.

And so I didn't get a chance to ask him, but this week I'm gonna talk with Bernie Moreno, who's been very clear on life begins at conception and that really makes (IVF) very difficult to square and Frank LaRose is in the same camp.

- Hmm.

Yeah now, Nicole, one of the things, obviously with (IVF), it's not just an Ohio issue, this is a national issue since that court statement in Alabama, that court decision., How was that being handled?

Because obviously this is those nuancing things that are going on since Dobbs.

So across the country, Republicans who are very supportive of Dobbs, now see this nuance that creates sort of a difficult issue for them Because on one hand, (IVF), in vitro fertilization is a reproductive success story for a lot of people.

And now that's in jeopardy.

We know in Alabama it's not being done anymore, at least that's appears to be the case.

So how is that resonating?

How is that being dealt with by anti-abortion candidates?

Because they're caught in kind of a position here now that they have to nuance it.

- So this is one of the things that's gonna be really challenging for them.

When the Dobbs decision came down two years ago, this was one of what I would consider the very predictable repercussions of it.

Because if you are operating under the premise that life begins at fertilization, that is fundamentally incompatible with a variety of treatments for fertility, including in vitro fertilization.

In vitro fertilization involves removing eggs, fertilizing them, and then usually freezing them until they are later used.

Success rates increase if you freeze the embryos before re-implanting them back in.

That comes with many risk.

You can lose embryos in the thaw, right?

They can freeze at a point that isn't really going to ever turn into a baby, which is usually what people who are doing IVF want.

They're doing it because they either can't get pregnant, are undergoing cancer treatment, have illnesses or other things that just require outside fertility assistance.

(IVF) is broadly popular in the US and it's also tremendously expensive.

And while an increasing number of states are mandating some level of insurance coverage, the average amount that people spend on IVF treatment is usually 20,000 and up.

And so the decision that came down in Alabama, essentially referring to embryos as "extra uterine children" stopped (IVF) in Alabama and also prevented people from transferring their embryos out of state.

So essentially people who were undergoing fertility treatments in Alabama, including people who were in the middle of their cycles or about, or preparing for transfer, now have frozen embryos in Alabama that they both can't access and cannot transfer to another state.

And so Republicans have been on essentially the defensive this week because this is a very popular procedure.

The numbers of people who are using it are skyrocketing, and they're now having to walk back a lot of the rhetoric they've been using for the last two plus years about both the Dobbs decision having no impact on both access to reproductive healthcare broadly, and also on their position as to how they choose to define when life begins for themselves and their policies.

- Yeah, because this went, right, literally beyond I think what anybody had... Maybe not had anticipated, but it went as far as anybody thought it could possibly go with that decision saying, right at the point of conception versus viability or whatever the terms are that people use.

- This was essentially what everyone warned would happen with a Dobbs decision.

And what Republicans tried to assure their voters would not happen.

- [Steve] Wouldn't happen.

Yeah.

- And they've done the same with quite a lot of other things, including access to contraception and that kind of stuff.

Also, which contraception is necessary for the (IVF) procedure.

So there were a lot of ways that they were gonna get here.

They've had to walk back a lot of what they have said, but you do have some people who are very far to the right and some groups that are very anti-abortion and very far to the right, celebrating this decision.

And so you do have tension between Republicans who are campaigning for the fall, who are campaigning for their primary races, and national groups who support them saying, no, this is great.

This is what we want, and this is what we've wanted all along, and we're gonna go farther.

And so there's a pretty big tension both between the candidates who need to appeal broadly and what their donors and groups want.

- Yeah, well it comes back to that question of electability because I, you know, issues like this can strip away independent voters or moderate voters from a candidate like that who otherwise might have sailed through in a primary at least with no problem at all.

Because, and I think one of the things when we start talking a little more about the Senate primary Ohio is, you know, the effort to see who will race farther to the right.

Because when I think... And we've got, we're gonna go to a break in a second.

I think, Karen, when you look at the two people we're gonna interview, they're gonna be a lot farther to the right than the guy you just interviewed, aren't they?

They're gonna be trying to outright each other, I assume.

That Bernie Moreno's gonna say, no, no, I'm more Donald Trump than Frank LaRose.

And Frank LaRose is gonna be saying, but I'm farther to the right than Bernie Marino.

At least that's how it looks like it's gonna play out.

So when we come back, we can talk, we'll talk about that in just a moment.

So hold that thought.

I'm sorry.

Back in just a moment here on "The Journal".

You're with us on "The Journal".

Our guests are Dr. David Jackson, Dr. Nicole Kalaf-Hughes from Bowling Green State University, and the host of the state of Ohio, Karen Kasler.

Karen, you interviewed Matt Dolan, one of the candidates for US Senate on the Republican side.

You're gonna have Frank LaRose and you're gonna have Bernie Marino on, and as I alluded to in the previous segment, they're probably gonna be a little farther to the right than Matt Dolan.

So talk a little about how you perceive the two of them after you've, I know you haven't talked to them yet, but given their backgrounds, do you see them trying to outright each other and be more to the right than the other one?

Or is one of them gonna try and moderate a little bit?

- Well, Matt Dolan is pretty far to the right, too.

So anybody who is looking for a moderate in this race... And moderate voters typically don't turn out for primaries.

So that's why you see candidates going to the extremes and then trying to maybe move it back toward the center.

But in talking to Matt Dolan about the situation involving abortion, I mean, Ohio voters just passed pretty overwhelmingly a Constitutional amendment guaranteeing not only access to abortion, but also reproductive rights, including the rights to contraceptives and fertility treatments.

So while Ohioans may be looking at what's happening in Alabama and getting worried, there is that constitutional protection, however, there are gonna be lawsuits that go through the court system to try to figure out where those lines actually are drawn.

And when I asked Dolan specifically about a national abortion ban, which a US senator would be involved in passing or voting against if it came up, I said, aren't you concerned about going against the will of the voters in Ohio who just weighed in on this?

And also, if you allow a 15 week ban, well that still allows 90% of abortions to happen.

And he said, he still believes it belongs in a state situation.

The states need to control what happens with abortion in their states, but he's concerned about long, later term abortions happening, which just simply don't happen.

They're very, very rare.

And so he said that's where a 15 week ban, there became this move to have more late term abortions in the United States, that's where a 15 week ban or a 16 week ban or whatever would be possibly, would be at play, so to speak.

- Yeah.

Now, when we look at the primary coming up in Ohio, obviously we believe at least all indications are that on the presidential side, the Republican primary, there isn't gonna be much to see there because if history shows us the last few, these primaries have happened, the rates have usually been 60/40, 59/41.

If people look at that that way and say, well, there's no point in coming out to vote on the Republican side for President, Nicole, will that affect other people who are on the ballot?

Because if turnout's obviously always important, that's gonna be an issue.

If people say, well, I don't have to worry, Donald Trump's gonna be the dominant, he's gonna win the votes in Ohio, I don't need to show up.

That's not the case, is it?

- No.

And if people just kind of assume he's the presumptive nominee and stay home- - [Steve] That could be a problem for him then too.

- There, well, it could be a problem in terms of him getting the nomination if he's their preferred candidate.

But it's also, there's a ton of other primary elections.

You've got a ton of down ballot races and you have a lot of local issues throughout the state, depending on where someone's registered to vote.

So you have things on the ballot like school levies or fire levies that may be far more relevant to an individual than who their party's nominee is that would affect their day-to-day life beyond just what happens for a presidential nominee.

And so I think it's a challenge to get people to turn out in the US generally, relative to some other countries.

We don't have the best, you know, voter turnout rates.

But I think particularly people tend to stay home if they assume that their vote's not gonna make a difference.

And if they assume that their preferred candidate already has the nomination locked in, they're gonna miss their chance to weigh in on some of these other down ballot races.

And as we've kind of been talking about how, you know, you have candidates that are not moderate, you will be more likely to end up with a more extreme candidate because the extreme people tend to turn out.

Regardless the moderate voters, the people who are like, oh, candidate's already locked in.

I don't need to go vote.

I don't really care about, you know, these down ballot races or these school levies or whatever else you have on your local ballot.

You're gonna end up with a very different snapshot of the population than we would if you have full electoral turnout.

- Yeah and especially obviously this US Senate race, one would think would drive voting on the Republican side.

But then again, if there's a presumptive thought that, well, the person who has the endorsement from Donald Trump is gonna be the defacto winner, that's another reason.

Well, I don't have to go out and vote on that either.

We know what's gonna happen.

But you make a good point, because obviously a lot of state legislators on the Republican side have been primaried because as Karen's talked about, some of the things have gone on in the legislature over the last year.

Those races are important as you said, because you could end up with the extreme candidate in those state and local races as well.

- [David] Well, there's a lot of things going on besides, you know, the presidential primary.

Of course, there's the Senate primary, there's Congressional Primaries, House, you know, State House.

So you know, up in northwest Ohio, there's the contested race to be the Republican nominee for the ninth Congressional District to challenge Representative Marcy Kaptur, the longest serving woman I believe in the history of the House of Representatives.

And what happened last time is an outsider candidate with no electoral experience split his way through that Republican primary because the traditional Republicans who held elective office, they'll split the more nearly moderate vote in death stick hearings.

This is relative there of moderates going on in this whole thing.

And it looks like that could happen again in that race that JR Majeski having a handful of opponents, I think three other opponents this time, who are perceived of anyway, as more normal traditional- - [Steve] Electable - Electable candidates splitting the vote among people who care about that issue.

And, you know, he lost Majewski did in, you know, 2022, 57/43, and there's no reason to expect him to do any better this time.

And then you see contested primary races happening too, especially on the State House level, because as you recall, Speaker Stevens is Speaker of the House of Representatives of the state of Ohio because of Democrats pairing up with a minority Republican caucus to make him the speaker.

And so even up here, you know, in Wood County, we have a hotly contested primary happening at the State House level.

And as I understand it, most of the Republicans who voted in favor of Stevens for speaker are being attacked by other Republicans.

So Republicans who voted for a Republican for speaker have drawn the- - [Steve] Other Republicans.

- So we have some real disorder happening within the Republican party, you know, here in Ohio.

And this was all really also partly a battle of for who will be Speaker of the House, come, you know, after this election because you have the president of the Senate having a plan to move over to the house, get elected to the house, and then become the Speaker of the House.

And it's probably not fair to describe Stevens as a moderate either, but he certainly more nearly than the Matt Huffman would be.

And so we would expect a major legislative avalanche of conservative legislation, particularly self-interest here on the higher education side, things that have been sort of held back right now.

- That is floating around in committees right now that would be at, which is a whole topic in and of itself.

Because I know one of the things that came up, I know Karen, we've got just a moment, I don't have to elaborate on it much, but there was that discussion of the fact that at least one of the candidates, someone brought it up on your show about the indoctrination that's going on in Ohio schools, which you can have your opinion on that, but there are are no facts one way or the other on that it seems.

But yet that's a topic which House Bill 83, among the many things that are floating around, would talk about that a little bit.

And from pre-K all the way through higher ed.

So that's a show in and of itself, a topic in and of itself, and obviously a lot to talk about.

But you're right, that has been held back a little bit by Speaker Stevens in terms of, in his moderation.

And we put air quotes around that, compared to the alternative that would've, the guy who would've been running the house, who now is a candidate, I think in the ninth District congressional race, Derek Merrin.

- [David] Yes, he is.

- Who wanted to be the Speaker of the House and yeah, was done in by, you know what some people are saying are turncoat traitor Republicans, that's how they're being primaried anyway.

So it's a strange world out there.

Everybody's, even within the parties, everybody's fighting with each other.

So it is that.

So, well, we're gonna have to leave it there.

We'll get together maybe after the primary and see what exactly went on here in Ohio.

It's always entertaining, if nothing else.

You can check us out at wbgu.org.

You can watch us every Thursday night at eight o'clock on WBGU-PBS.

We'll see you again next time.

Goodnight and good luck.

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