I'm Jeronimo Cortina, a political science professor at the University of Houston.

And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor also here at the University of Houston.

Thanks for hanging out with us and talking a little politics on Party P olitics.

An exciting week, actually.

Lots of big things happening and maybe some future precedents to be set.

But let's talk about the Senate.

And we've talked about this in a couple of different contexts because like we've said, control of the Senate is really kind of at this point control of government.

They have a pretty serious ability to be able to, you know, manage some of the appointments that are coming up and obviously pass legislation.

But there are some who would like to see one member step aside.

Tell us about that.

Well, it's going to be, I think, you know, the same person, right?

Dianne Feinstein.

It's right.

Dianne Feinstein has been on medical leave since February and obviously she has announced that she's not going to be running.

But that's creating significant problems for, you know, Democrats in the US Senate right now.

This week, the majority leader is pushing a resolution to have at least a, you know, someone or, you know, a I would say a replacement, temporary replacement to go into the Judiciary Committee.

Yeah, because it's basically stopping all judicial nominations at the time administration have.

And those nominees cannot move forward.

So they're trying to do that.

We'll see.

But as you say, there is a lot of Democrats that's saying like, yeah, just call it quits.

Yeah, there are two problems here.

One is in California, right, where the replacement is going to take place.

So Representative Ro Khanna from who's endorsed Barbara Lee has said basically we don't want an absentee senator, we need her to step aside.

Right now, the senator is recovering from shingles, which is painful and also, you know, at advanced age, potentially dangerous.

And so she's taking medical leave.

And so she asked this lieutenant, she asked the majority leader, Chuck Schumer, to to basically, you know, kind of replace her on the Judiciary Committee, because, as you said, they're really holding things up.

There was a count from Politico that said that there are as many as 14 pending nominations right now.

And time is of the essence.

Right.

This is a battle for control of the courts, which is really a battle for the future for Democrats and Joe Biden's legacy.

So because Donald Trump did so much in the federal courts to remake things, the Biden administration is, you know, trying to play catch up here.

And so this is a chance for them to be able to do that.

But they can't do it if they don't have.

Right.

The, you know, kind of full team in place.

So the problem here is they've got to ask Republicans to be able to make those changes, right?

Yeah.

And guess what?

They don't want to play ball.

Tom Cotton was like, no, I'm not going to help you do that.

So this is a huge problem.

And obviously a bit of an.

Mess if she resigns.

Right.

And the governor would put.

Yes.

Replacement.

Yes.

Right.

Also a little controversy.

So that's interesting.

People running to replace her.

Right.

But then they could move things forward.

Yes.

So I totally agree.

Republicans are not going to play ball.

Yeah.

And Democrats, you know, if that were in the other procedure, would not play ball either.

Yeah.

Yeah.

So it's you know, it's the nuclear option here and it's like.

You know.

Right.

The missile is like like swirling towards Oh, yeah.

Is that the elevator?

Like in the movies?

Like it's opening the doors.

You can see the steam.

Coming, right?

Right.

Well, and let me give you some more fodder for that light.

And that is that like we talked last week about the fallout from the Clarence Thomas discussion that like he had effectively not been forthcoming on his financial filings.

There are rumors that the committee, the Judiciary Committee will consider like talking about this will have hearings on this, maybe even subpoenaing the justice himself, which would be pretty unprecedented.

So that's another kind of log on this fire right now, another booster for the rocket, we'll say, right, about the nuclear option, because now Republicans are like, well, no, we're definitely not going to help you to kind of, you know, roast our absolute our cherished, you know, Supreme Court.

And, you know, it's over this week.

There were some other allegations that now, you know, they're gone, that Justice Thomas has to, you know, fix that 2014 statement because he didn't understand the instructions and what needed to be reported.

I mean, I get it.

Even people who go to jail make mistakes, right?

Yeah.

Yeah.

But, you know.

Not people who go to Columbia, they'll say exactly your taxes or whistle.

Okay.

Yes, they are.

Well, let's move from the far west to the Midwest, and that is to Wisconsin, where Tammy Baldwin, who is the incumbent senator and one of the incumbent senators, is running for reelection.

This is actually good news for Democrats because obviously defending an open seat will be much harder than defending a seat with an incumbent like they are now.

This is a swing state.

Wisconsin has been one of those places the Democrats have struggled to win but have won.

So she's going to run on a couple of things.

I mean, she says obviously kind of parroting what Joe Biden has, you know, done in office is one thing My question to you is whether there's enough there to run on and win on.

So I'll bracket that.

But she also has made reproductive freedom part of the cornerstone of her her reelection campaign.

And this is important because there has been some movement there in Wisconsin.

We mentioned this, I think we mentioned this.

I don't know, there's been like a million things and time is flat.

But there were victories for a liberal Supreme Court justice in Wisconsin as a state Supreme Court.

And so there's kind of a hint that maybe that's an issue that Democrats can run and win on.

So what do you make of this race?

And do you think that the Biden record is to some enough that like Democrats can really use that as a reason to like get reelected in 2024?

Well, I think well, first of all, the Democrats need to put a serious PR campaign.

Yeah.

And really start saying what they have accomplished or not.

I mean, and the whole idea is, you know, the infrastructure bill that was passed.

Right, that is huge.

And if you look back into American history, probably, you know, we have had a couple of, you know, public spending programs that have put us forward in a very dramatic way.

Obviously, after the Great Depression in the 1930s with the New Deal, you have a huge influx of public infrastructure investment.

Right then probably, you know, 1960s, the expansion of the War on Poverty by Johnson.

Right.

And after that, you start seeing a decline of of that type of investment on behalf of the government.

So both the Trump administration and now the Biden administration tried to pursue that.

The Trump administration failed, of course, but now the Biden administration has that, you know, I guess, opportunity to really, really go on tour, right.

And really say, well, you know, the breach that you were always afraid to drive because you thought that it was going to fall apart.

Yeah, well, we're going to fix it.

Some of these investments are going to take, you know, ten, 15 years to accomplish.

But they start to do the PR right now.

Yeah.

If they want a chance and I.

Think.

Reproductive rights is going to be something that has traction.

Yeah, that's right.

I think you're exactly right.

And like we said last week, you know, there are going to be court cases that have come down that will deal with abortion rights and access to health care in that way.

And I think that that's going to be something that the Democrats are going to have to play up.

So there are opportunities here.

Yeah, I mean, it's going to a tough, you know, road for them, right?

So that's going to be something we'll have to watch.

But, you know, some of this goes through Arizona, right?

And that's a third of our three states.

We'll talk about an independent, Kristen Sinema, who was formerly a Democrat, raised a pretty healthy amount of money, about $2 million in three months, but not so fast.

Representative Ruben Gallegos raised about $4 million.

So he's going to be likely the Democratic nominee, although obviously there's going to be a lot of time between now and then.

Republican Mark LAMB is jump in the race, too.

Now, Senator, Cinema has not said she's going to run again, but if she does run, she'll probably run as an independent, which has its own kind of pitfalls.

So that's definitely worrisome.

But, you know, if you want to capture the eye of the tiger here, Jeronimo, I did look in her report and it did say that Sylvester Stallone, none other than Rocky himself, donated about $11,000 to her reelection campaign.

So, you know, maybe the eye of the tiger, maybe, you know, you're going to see her like, you know, running up a snow covered mountain with a, you know, blog or something.

Right.

Just to get ready for this, because it's going to be a pretty tough fight.

He's going to be a pretty tough fight.

And I think that, you know, the electorate is like we're not used to have independents running or starting their campaign.

Right?

Yes.

You still need political parties because our democracy is based on political parties.

Yes.

Even though the the framers would be having a heart attack, seeing how, you know, political parties have become indeed what have we done?

But but I think that, you know, Gallagos brings That I guess or he's pinpointed to the Democrats.

Right.

And he's talking to them.

He's not talking to, you know, people that might be in on the fence or something like that.

He's really talking to that part of the electorate.

Yeah.

And I think that Christian cinema lost a lot of of credibility in the 30,000 foot policy proposal view from the Biden administration in the sense that, you know, she was not going forward because.

Yeah, you know, it's like, well, we're kind of conservative here in Arizona.

I don't want to, you know, do X, Y or Z.

But obviously, you know, that can inflame turnout on the Democratic side.

And Republicans.

Right.

If they want a real Republican, a real Democrat.

And polarization means independents are going to find the struggle to, you know, get some traction, even somebody like that.

And so that's where that's I think that's the issue for her is like is her brand strong enough she can pull independents to come vote?

I'm not sure.

I'm not sure.

But it's a key race because Democrats need to hold that seat if they're going to hold the line in the Senate, which looks increasingly more challenging by the week.

But speaking of reelection this week, though, our friend your friend, a guy who I played lacrosse with at, let's just say Princeton, George Santos, a Republican from New York who's sometimes been known to be a little bit challenge with the truth is running for reelection.

What do you know about that?

He says in a statement.

He's a first generation American.

He grew up poor with a single mom and as a, you know, child of immigrants, you know, he's pleased to serve his community in Congress.

I don't know how much of that's true, but is there anybody who believes the things he said?

Right.

I don't even know if it's true.

So what's going on?

Like what?

Like how?

Like.

Oh, like, sure.

I mean, it's delusional.

Delusional?

In a recent poll within his district, 70% of constituents believe that he ought to resign.

Yeah.

So it's.

That's pretty high.

I don't know.

During the first three months of the year, he raised about 5333 with $0.26.

And $0.26.

Yeah.

Who gave him $0.26?

I don't know, but it's just preposterous, right?

Well, and he had to refund a bunch of that money, and so he actually owes more money.

In refund?

Oh, yeah, yeah.

He's in the negatives.

Right.

Which then it's.

Almost never happened.

Right.

So it's.

I yeah.

Well Leader McCarthy was asked if he was going to support his reelection bid on CNN, and he just laughed, which is not a good sign when your prospective boss is like, no.

It's not going to happen.

Oh, he laughed.

He literally laughed.

And so and that was it.

No answer.

Just like so I don't think it's going to go that well for Jorge Santos is probably going to lose.

But it does, as we've said before, kind of give us a sense of where politics are today.

Right.

The fact that he has no shame and is going to run again is pretty interesting from a political perspective.

So, yeah, even if ultimately it won't really change the balance because it's a pretty Republican district.

So I don't think it's going necessarily hurt the Republican brand, but it might actually I mean, some evidence suggests that it does.

And so it's possible that Republicans could struggle in that seat, but it's a pretty, pretty red seat.

So we'll have to wait and see.

But let's switch from one kind of chaos moment to another and talk about what's going on in Texas.

I know you're looking forward to your tax cut.

We'll just see if it comes or not.

This is the content that I'm here for.

As predicted, we have a fight between the Texas House and Texas Senate.

They both passed some kind of property tax relief bill, but they're doing it in very different ways.

Not so much like in terms of how much money or a percentage here or there.

It's like literally they're going in two different directions.

So the House has advocated a bill effectively that's going to put appraisal caps on the increase of a person's home appraisal.

It's going to pump about $12 billion into school districts.

So they can lower their property taxes.

This is effectively going to lower the cap from about 10% to 5%.

Dan Patrick says the math doesn't work and it's dead.

So that's not good for where the houses.

The Senate in turn has passed their own bill.

They want to raise the homestead exemption from 40000 to $70000 with additional bump for seniors and some tax credits to businesses.

So they're going in very different directions.

So even though they're doing basically the same thing.

So what do you make of this fight and are we going to get a tax cut or not like.

Well, I think they just need to flip a coin because maybe.

So, actually.

Because you know, that Patrick's position is very clear.

Right.

And you know, what he has signaled so far is like, yeah, it's my way or the highway.

Well, and I hate to even whisper this word it just to make sure, but special session, if they can't agree, then there will have to be a special session.

Not because they have to like a budget like situation, but because they promise tax relief.

And if it doesn't come, then it's going to be a tremendous problem for them to back.

I mean, that has to happen, right, either.

And remember that the governor can call for special sessions, you know, 11,000 billion, right?

Yeah.

And only for the point.

So he could have or call for one special tax relief special session every other 30 days.

Right.

And that's it.

And keep, you know, legislators there in Austin for as long as he wants.

They're not going to like that.

Oh, no.

They're going to run out of places to go to until lunch, you know.

Dinner.

The conference committee has to sit down and try to iron out these differences.

Yeah, I don't know how.

Right.

Yeah, they can't.

The only way that could happen is, you know, they have the same goal, right.

And same goal is, you know, I guess a win for the House and the Senate.

Yeah.

So if they have the same goal, the only thing that they need to understand is if they're going to take the tollway, if they're going to take the highway, or if they're going to use a, you know, farm market to road.

Yeah.

Road.

Right.

So I think that's going to be very interesting because it involves a lot of math and it involves a lot of simulations and a lot of scenarios because both proposals have, you know, pros and cons in terms of how that money would go.

Yeah, for the average tax homeowner pay your whatnot is not going to make a difference.

Right?

Right.

It might make a very small difference for some.

And I think that's the kind of underlying problem they're going to find about this four months in that it'll be a few hundred bucks a year and people are like, Wait, where's my money?

That's one thing.

But I actually think I mean, you're right that the governor can call specials and probably will if this doesn't go.

But really what they need the governor to do here is to step in and to arbitrate this.

They need a referee.

He's got to put a striped shirt on and come in and say, like, okay, here from you, hear from you, and then let's get this done.

Right.

You know, that's been the way that in the past these things have gone.

And honestly, like, there's no other way to get around this.

These are two totally different financial models.

And you could merge them together, do half of one half of the other.

But at this point, yeah, Dan Patrick is dug in and said, no, the fact that the House passed this bill and they're so in lockstep in this approach to reduced appraisals, means that they don't want to budge either.

So, yeah, I don't know what's going to happen except, you know, I'm excited to see the fight.

Right, because that's the fun part, right?

Right.

What is a game of chicken, right?

Yes.

Yeah.

Two cars and then put them on on Congress Avenue.

You'd love to see they'd feel and drive a tractor.

Yeah, yeah.

Like straight at each other.

Let me let me ask you a question.

So, you know, at the end, the you know, the homeowners are going to get, you know, some, you know, couple of hundred dollars.

Right.

But these stocks card has been hyped so much.

Right.

So if you're are paying, you know, let's say a $10,000 property tax a year.

Yeah.

And then your next bill is going to be, I don't know, 9500.

Yeah.

Are you going to be very happy in terms of of of, you know, the reduction that you're going to get in terms of both proposals?

Yeah, it's going it's going down too slowly.

And people still see, you know, overall, they're paying a lot and more than they used to.

And they're seeing like the appraisals of their properties going up.

And, you know, obviously lots of ways to get to the waterfall.

Here are lots of ways to reduce property taxes.

The money's there.

They want to do so in a responsible way.

And that's the real challenge, too, because and Patrick, it's a structural thing.

We're like, then that affects the budget in the future, right?

Where like the amount of money that you structurally take away from that local government means that that going forward can't happen.

The appraisal tax does something similar to it, but perhaps provide some more flexibility.

So I mean, there are lots of different ramifications to this.

I don't think is a right or wrong way here, but clearly they think there is.

The fact that there's so divergent is really interesting.

But we're going to see other fights here, too.

So let's talk about a couple of bills that are going to come up this week and that kind of came up last week.

The first is a bill from Justin Burrows or Dustin Burrows, rather, who introduced a sweeping preemption bill.

This is a bill that effectively would give state authority over any kind of regulated thing from the ag code to insurance code.

Labor code, this would, according to the Texas Municipal League, affect the ability for local governments to do things like check overgrown lots to watch for bee infestations like payday lending, heavy trucks, unsafe waste storage and on and on and on.

So local control no more in Texas that this goes.

And this actually today, literally as of day of recording this, you had 53 mayors argue in a public statement that they're being victimized.

You're taking away our ability to like God to govern.

Yeah.

And like and so they're saying here's the here's the nutshell version.

What they're saying.

You're saying you're arguing that we aren't looking out for the interest of our business.

Why would you say that?

Right.

That's exactly what we do.

And we need these energy.

We need this enthusiasm.

We need these businesses to do well here in order for, like our cities to thrive.

So why would you think we're trying to do something to hurt that?

What do you think about this?

Well, I think it's it's you know, it's a message direct that to, you know, those mayors that do not necessarily align with the views of some legislators.

But I think, you know, at the end, just from a policy perspective, from urban planning, public administration, it's a bad idea, right?

Because there is no way that you can have, you know, the state apparatus, you know, seeing if there is a bee infestation.

Yeah.

In a local community.

Yeah.

Like you're going to increase the size of the state to such a matter, right?

Yeah.

And they're going to be local again, you know.

So Governor Abbott, to get weekly bee updates.

Right.

So you know, it's going to be, you know, a disaster from a public administration perspective.

And I think that mayors are and should be very worried about that because you're taking away the, you know, reaction time that they can do, right?

Yeah.

And speaking of mayors, right?

Yeah.

Speaking of mayors, very local.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I like your transition.

Thank you very much indeed.

We have now a would you say a full slate of candidates for the Houston mayoral race?

Yeah.

And promises to potentially continue to grow.

Sheila Jackson Lee officially kicked off her campaign.

She's promised a bunch of different things like protecting or dealing with the city's waste wastewater system, crime, neighborhood lighting.

She's argued that we should have expand of metro where we have rail goes from downtown to the airports.

So there's a lot on the list.

But she might not be the only contender.

But Buzz is back.

Tony Buzzbee has been rumored to be interested in running for mayor.

So that's interesting, too, because he can change the game here, not a Republican, but Republican lite and he can spend millions of his own money to get it happen.

So and we also have Orlando Sanchez, a former county treasurer, very highly skilled political operative, and obviously we have Chris Hollins that decided that, you know, yeah, right now he's gig.

He's going to be you know.

Mayor's a little crowded.

I'm going to switch over here to comptroller.

Yeah.

Which is not a bad move.

Not a bad move, actually.

Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin is running for that, too.

He's got a pretty healthy campaign account so far.

This is going to be a really competitive lot of city elections.

You've got three of these like of these At-Large seats open.

So it's going to be a really fun race.

Absolutely.

And we're going to keep an eye on it for the upcoming weeks.

Hey, thanks for watching party politics and thanks to everybody here at Houston Public Media for making us look and sound so good.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus We'll see you next week.