Funding for "Reporters Roundtable" by David cruz is provided by rw barna bass hospital, rowan university.

Transforming New Jersey's futur.

♪ ♪ DAVID: Numbers don't lie.

They are, however, open to interpretation.

Hey, everybody, it's "Reporters Roundtable" and I'm David cruz.

Are you into number, one guest and three panelist.

Alist yeah schneider and covers politics for the fold "Enquirer" and and advanced media and author of "what makes jersey run" newsletter and Peter burns from whyy and a familiar face soon to be seen and say hello to the polling institute Patrick Murray.

Hey, Patrick, welcome.

>> Good to be with you, David.

>> Are you officially former?

>> Yeah, I think at this point we wrapped up the polling operation at mom moth university.

>> The doors close officially in July, is that correct?

>> Yes.

We are just cleaning up now at this point.

And then I started my own consulting firm as we speak.

DAVID: Definitely going to talk about that.

How much can you say why the university decided to shutter the operation, one of the best regarded in the country but the polling business nt what it used to be.

Everyone feeling pressure?

>> The public polling business which I was in for 25 years has changed radically and it's interesting.

As it has gotten harder to poll around elections in particular, the expectations of the public and the media have increased.

And in an area that is not realistic.

You know, the polls have certainly have been off.

But not off by a lot but off in one direction for the past few presidential cycles and everybody judges you by that.

And what I faced and you don't get judged by your batting average but by your worst game.

You could go 2-3 and it's that third one that everybody looks at and one of the things I found in the last election when I looked back on commentary on the polling we did in 2024, they looked at one poll slightly off and said that's why you are wrong and you are a bad pollster and the other two right on the money that basically said we cheated and somehow guessed right on those.

It starts to not make any sense and it is a bad environment to be in because of the lack of trust is being built on top of a loss of misinformation that's out there about what polling is and a lot of bad expectations about what polling can do.

DAVID: What does this business look like in five, 10 years?

>> It's hard and with the media and information in general, people cherry-pick what they want to believe in.

And then anything that is slightly off from that belief has to absolutely be not only wrong, but wrong for nefarious reasons and that is problematic.

DAVID: A well administered poll is more critical today than ever, no?

>> Polling continues to do right and are the things that really matter what polling is set up to do and understand where we are as a public and the direction we are moving in.

It's not about predicting an election within .2 of a point but what direction is the country headed in.

62% agree or 58% agree.

We know the numbers 6 and 10 and that's important if the number three months was 5-10 or 7-10 and polling can help us when we look at public health and social welfare and look at economic well-being.

These are things that polling does well and we should rely on rather than predicting an election outcome.

DAVID: Tell us what insight research is and what are you going to be doing there.

>> One thing I realized, the good stuff we do and didn't get an opportunity to do because it doesn't get reported.

You want the elections and job approval rating and the motivation why people behave the way they do, this is information that is important to nonprofit groups, agencies that provide services, corporations, businesses, as well as campaigns and those kinds of things and it's something that I have always been focused on and I feel that I do well.

And I reals I hadn't had the opportunity to do it in the public polling sphere and I will do it in the private polling sphere for people who want to pay for that good information that polling can provide.

DAVID: You will be running the show over there?

>> That's me.

I started figuring out.

I built a reputation and I have a focus and my background is in social psychology and political science.

I like to understand what motivates people to do things and going out into the private sector will give me the opportunity to what makes polling interesting to me.

DAVID: Circumstances being as they are and timing being as they are and new polling from friends at Eagleton institute and the governor race.

And and there is a tie in a field where there is a lot of undecided voters.

Does it feel to you that's what is happening out there?

>> Let's start with the Republican side.

He has a lead any polls, external.

And there is enough undecided that if Donald trump comes out and endorses, this will be a more competitive race.

But for the time being, it is chit really's race to lose.

On the Democratic side.

Every single poll, internal, external has told me one thing and undecided is in first place, mike yes Cheryl and everybody else is crowded around here.

All those polls that are out there.

If correct predictions are out there it will fall into in terms of the mike yes sherrill but enough decided that a few weeks to go in this elections but one of those candidates could break out and surpass her if they catch the right fire.

There will be 650,000 my guess, maybe it is as low as 500,000.

Means you can win this primary with less than 200,000 voters if you target the right voters.

You get enough of them.

That switches this dynamic significantly.

That's the interpretation.

I look at people who say, mikeiesherrill, and it's not a true first, second and third place.

That's how I would interpret these polls.

DAVID: In terms of polling in my last 30 seconds, is this a weird time in the country or is this just a transition?

>> Well, it's both.

It is a weird time because we don't know what the future is going to hold but we are transitioning very different and have been for the last eight years or so and will continue to do.

Coming out on the other side, nobody can predict.

>> Patrick Murray and good look for the venture, man.

Thanks for coming on with us.

Panel, Ken, brent and aLeah.

He is one of the best known pollsters certainly in New Jersey.

A guy who became a big free agent and signed with an expansion team.

Tough to be a startup in the polling business nowadays.

>> It isn't and is.

I remember looking at those methodologies and I have a agree in political science and critical of political polls.

And those methodologies, it takes time to build that trust and to Patrick's earlier point as far as how some of us in the media look at polls.

Great to get the temperature check but at the same time polling is not votes.

It's a temperature check.

It's a way to see where people are and maybe we should look at how we cover polls on the journalism side.

DAVID: Brent, you never realize how important these polls are until you don't have them anymore.

>> That's one thing we talked about last year's Senate race.

Bob Menendez not running because of his court case and only a few polls in that race and a lot of people wondering what was going to happen.

There is a lot of speculation without the number of polls.

And polling in general, it's a great thing to help give context for stories and a lot of people don't understand polls.

I can't tell you how many emails are saying they didn't poll me and only polled 800 people.

It is frustrating and very helpful thing to have polls.

>> Let's welcome a new cast number to this weekly number of sarcasm and satire.

Welcome.

Where are you from and how did you end up doing politics at the ""Enquirer"?

>> I grew up in Vermont and worked in the hudson valley and in the Bronx and smaller newspapers and moved to Philly and started working for the ""Enquirer" in 2023 and covering Pennsylvania's role in the 2024 election and more New Jersey coverage and still doing Pennsylvania but on the politics team since I joined the ""Enquirer."

DAVID: It is a good paper and let me ask you about the Eagleton institute and chitar emp lli and maybe sherrill having a slight lead.

Is that the way you see it?

>> I was not surprised by the Democratic poll and a lot of people do see there is a potential path to victory for all the candidates, maybe some more than others.

But there is no obvious winners and losers at this point.

On the Republican side not surprised that chittarelli and interesting to see over whether President Trump is going to endorse in the race because the two have been fighting over that a little bit and don't know if Donald trump is going to endorse and if so, who.

And there is lots of speculation on that.

I think the President would be more inclined to endorse someone who has better chances of winning.

But I do think the poll does favor Jack when it comes to that whole back and forth if Donald trump going to endorse and if so, who.

DAVID: You might have a big ego if you are the President and said I picked the other guy who is behind and he won because of me.

That is something that Donald trump could problgly do.

probably do.

On this Eagleton poll, anything surprise you?

>> Good point.

I'm very critical.

I had the tablets in front of me because I want to make this point.

Steve, 46% and people don't know who he is and John, and keep in mind those billboards come down here to Brunswick.

And spad inch a, 51% don't know who he is.

And you think about it, Jack knows who he was.

He was the nominee.

And first attempt in 2017.

At this point and I know what I said earlier, it would take and to your earlier point, David, I remember the Pennsylvania Senate race, that where McCormick lost to Dr. Oz because a President Trump endorsed Dr. Oz and put the thumb on the scale.

And that seemed to be the only thing.

I got the trump endorsement and rode that when he lost to fetterman.

DAVID: There isn't any evidence of a last Barack surge.

But his base is underrepresented in polls like this, no?

>> It seems he and Steve have been fighting for the progressive lane.

And that -- one of them could could consolidate that and get the vote on election day.

A lot could happen.

DAVE: We have Jack and josh on "Chatbox" this week and it is coming down on crunch time and seeing more than these candidates.

The town hall is all the rage.

You have been to at least one or two this year, I assume.

Aliya, the weapon of choice and wrote about an andy Kim town hall.

What did you see?

>> I saw andy Kim leaning into his Cristism of the trump administration.

He started the town hall speaking for about 30 minutes and all focused on his criticisms of trump and concerns about the administration and saying we are in a constitutional crisis.

He was overall welcomed and at the high school he graduated with 25 years years ago.

There were outbursts and people were saying why didn't you say this when Biden was President.

But overall people were receptive and gave him standing ovations.

And then we saw Israel who is a contentious topic and the other big thing that came up other than Donald trump but Democrats are using the uncertainties surrounding the trump administration right now as a strategy to energize their base in a way and people are so tied into the national news right now that it's a topic that people are interested in paying attention to.

>> Brent, I have seen a lot of choreography to these Democratic town hall events.

They do get some actual questions, right?

>> Yeah.

They are targeted and go to places where they aren't holding town halls and pointed jab in your eye the moment you get in there.

When you are not in power, draw attention to those who are.

And right now Republicans control Washington and the idea is let's continue to shoot up at them.

So, you know, that's why this governor race is so important and give a temperature of what is going on into the country and next year's mid-terms and can the Democrats ride momentum or is this a Republican year?

DAVE: Does it come down to who trump endorses?

>> Ultimately, we think it does and haven't heard any indications from Mar-a-Lago or the White House wherever trump is.

Remember, primaries are about the people who are in the party.

The party right now is energized behind trump even though we are in the garden State and he is unpopular and came closer.

DAVE: I saw andy Kim doing a town hall with seniors in New York.

He said don't call it but can't hurt, right?

>> They are there in their official capacities but if you were to guess in the race, andy Kim, I would say.

So it makes people wonder seeing them together.

Andy Kim despite the path he would get involved has decided he is not going to make an endorsement and making the argument that in a way against his values based on his own against people trying to tip the scales by giving their endorsement.

I definitely seeing them together can't hurt.

But I don't think we would expect andy Kim to necessarily put it that way.

DAVE: We had a piece on the 32nd legislative district.

One of the them is Steve Phillip who has candidates in the assembly districts who are up for election in the fall.

Brent, it is a State-wide ticket except none of the other candidates are doing it.

Is it a good strategy?

You get the benefits of being on a ticket and still fighting the power, no?

>> Regardless of what anyone thinks, it is a fascinating campaign.

He is -- I know he is against party bosses but he is his own party broker and willing to sweep everyone out along with him and makes this year all the more interesting that someone is taking advantage there is no county line and the guy running for governor with all these other people running for assembly.

And a lot of people don't know there may be assembly races going on.

DAVE: Kenny, what do we know about the south jersey fires and have to talk about that before we move on?

>> They have a suspect in custody, a 19-year-old and the ocean city prosecutor said he is confident that he started the fire whether because of a Bonnfire or for purposely set vandalism, he is not tipping his hand and doesn't want to try the case in public.

He didn't want to say too much how they tracked Quinn down but they do have the evidence and corroborating evidence and believe he was the one who started the fire and this arrest is a warning to everyone else, you put a lot of people and a lot of property in danger if you start a fire particularly in a dry area and in a forest.

We are still in a drought watch in this State and particularly, they are fire prone -- I was talking to ecologists about this.

The reliance on fires so it could sustain a healthy ecosystem.

They are hoping if the forecast holds for this weekend they should have it fully contained.

As of Thursday night, it was half contained.

DAVE: Happening with more frequency, no?

>> It is.

In fact, this time last year, I don't have the exact number but compared to last year, double the number of wildfires that we have had in this State and I'm sure that this is for some people who pleerve this is evidence of climate change are going to point to this and have extreme weather events although we have had welcomed measurable rain recently, it will take several periods to get back to normalcy.

DAVE: No major property damage?

>> No one hurt, no deaths.

Officials are thankful for that.

There was a family garage-owned family business that was lost and the town is working with them to help them out and everyone is thankful -- the fire pupils got banged up.

But said those vehicles were made to take a beating.

DAVE: That's some good news.

Brent, President phil Murphy, what are you hearing about phil Murphy and Rutgers University?

>> Different kind of President.

His name was floated and told them know.

And the search is up in the air.

And Murphy's was bant yessed about.

And so yeah, his name is mentioned but he said he is not a candidate.

Intriguing to see what is going on at my alma matter 2006.

DAVE: Worst places to retire to.

For not a heavy lifting.

Tom kaine was the President.

But not a great time for higher education.

It would be an interesting place for a former governor to land at the State university.

DAVE: You don't think it's going to happen?

>> No.

DAVE: That's "round table" brent, Kenny and aliya.

We are on bluesky and follow us and stay updated on what the rest of the team is up to by subscribing to the youtube channel.

I'm David cruz, we thank you for watching.

>> Major funding with David cruz is provided by R.W.J.barnabas health and row and university.

Transforming New Jersey's futur.