>> ERIC: WARMER WEATHER AND RAIN IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS TURNED THE BEAUTIFUL WHITE SNOW TO ICE.

MANY PLACES OUTSIDE THE METRO STILL HAVE PLENTY OF THE WHITE FLUFFY STUFF ON THE GROUND.

HERE WITH AN ASSESSMENT OF THE BEST PLACE TO FIND A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN MINNESOTA, PAUL DOUGLAS.

WHEN HE'S NOT TALKING SNOW TOTALS WITH US, YOU CAN CATCH HIS PREDICTIONS IN THE STAR TRIBUNE.

HE ALSO RUNS HIS OWN WEATHER COMPANY, PREDICT-IX.

>> ELI.

>> Cathy: REALLY?

>> ARROWHEAD.

>> 100% PROBABILITY OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS.

EVERY YEAR.

>> Eric: THERE YOU GO.

>> IF YOU ABSOLUTELY WANT A WHITE CHRISTMAS.

>> Eric: ALL RIGHT.

>> DULUTH, PRETTY GOOD.

ARROWHEAD BETTER.

>> Cathy: OKAY.

AND THERE'S SNOW ON THE GROUND THERE, WE KNOW THAT.

>> THERE'S PLENTY OF SNOW.

THE REST OF THE STATE, IT'S GOING TO BE RIGHT DOWN TO THE WIRE IN TERMS OF WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR.

BUFF, MAN BEING WE GOT OFF TO A GREAT SNOW AND -- GREAT START, AND SNOW LOVERS WERE BEING, LIKE, HERE WE GO, A REAL WINTER, COLD, SNOW.

>> Eric: ON TO THE VISUALS.

>> EAH.

THIS IS MY WIFE.

>> Cathy: OH, COME ON!

YOU COULDN'T EVEN GET OUT THERE AND SNOW BLOW YOURSELF?

>> SHE LOVES THAT SNOWBLOWER.

SHE LOVES IT.

IT'S ELECTRIC.

>> Eric: YOU BROKE A LEG THE LAST TIME YOU DID SNOW BLOWING.

>> THAT WAS THE WALKING THE DOG, SLIPPING ON ICE.

YEAH, WE GOT OFF TO A GREAT START.

I WAS KIND OF EXCITED.

I LIKE SNOW, ESPECIALLY WHEN I'M NOT DRIVING IN RUSH HOUR.

WE TAKE TURNS, BY THE WAY.

BUT I LOVE THAT PHOTOGRAPH.

YEAH.

WE GOT OFF TO A GOOD START.

AND EVERYTHING IN BLUE, ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL TO DATE.

AND YOU CAN SEE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

16.7 SO FAR IN THE TWIN CITIES.

THERE'S ONLY ABOUT FOUR ON THE GROUND NOW.

BUT LAST YEAR WE HAD TWO AND A HALF.

DULUTH HAS SEEN 22.

LAST YEAR, 11 INCHES.

SO, AGAIN, GOOD START.

WHERE'S IT GOING FROM HERE?

WEATHER WHIPLASH.

WE GOT OFF TO A VERY COLD START.

20 CONTINUOUS DAYS BELOW FREEZING, LATE NOVEMBER, EARLY DECEMBER.

AND THAT'S THE COLDEST IT'S BEEN SO EARLY IN THE SEASON SINCE 1985.

IT OT DOWN TO 11 BELOW IN THE TWIN CITIES LAST SUNDAY.

COLDEST START TO DECEMBER SINCE 2000.

SO YOU THINK, ALL RIGHT, HERE WE GO!

BUT THE DATA SHOWS THERE'S NO CORRELATION BETWEEN EARLY COLD WAVES AND THE OVERALL WINTER TO COME.

>> Cathy: OH.

>> AND, SO, YEAH, DON'T MAKE ANY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE ENTIRE WINTER.

>> Eric: HUH.

>> THERE'S NO EVIDENCE YET THAT POLAR AIR IS GOING TO BE LOCKED IN.

AT LEAST THROUGH JANUARY.

TO REALLY GET A BRUTAL PIONEER WINTER LIKE WE HAD 2013-2014, YOU NEED A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION, THE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN OSCILLATION.

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION.

WHAT THAT MEANS, ALL THAT GOBBLEDYGOOK, IS THAT YOU HAVE HIGH PRESSURE STALLED OVER GREENLAND AND ALASKA.

AND IF YOU HAVE THAT KIND OF A PATTERN, BITTER AIR, A WHIRLPOOL OF POLAR AIR GETS TRAPPED OVER CANADA AND MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES, IT'S JUST A FREEWAY OF SIBERIAN AIR, LITERALLY AIR THAT ORIGINATED IN SIBERIA.

I DON'T SEE THAT SETUP LOOKING OUT THE NEXT MONTH.

WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH, WHO KNOWS.

ALL I KNOW IS THAT CHRISTMAS IS GOING TO BE WARM.

15, MAYBE 20° ABOVE AVERAGE HERE.

>> Cathy: OH.

>> 40s FOR CHRISTMAS DAY!

JUST TO THE SOUTH WHERE THERE'S NO SNOW ON WANT GROUND, PARTS OF IOWA, MISSOURI, 60s, MAYBE 70s.

AND THAT'S GOING TO BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE NATION.

AND HERE IS THE EUROPEAN MODEL, WHICH SHOWS 40s, A COUPLE OF 40s, RIGHT ROUND CHRISTMAS, MAYBE ANOTHER RUN OF 40s RIGHT AROUND NEW YEAR'S.

SO HERE WE GO.

COLD START, BUT A MILD FINISH.

YOU THOUGHT IT WAS GOING TO BE A TOUGH WINTER.

OLD MAN WINTER IS SAYING, HERE, HOLD MY BEER.

WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

BUT IF YOU'RE DREAMING OF A SLOPPY CHRISTMAS, YOU MAY BE IN LUCK.

>> Cathy: GREAT.

>> ALL RIGHT.

COUPLE OF THINGS I WANT TO MENTION.

HEL NINO -- >> Cathy: NO.

>> -- INDICATIONS ARE IT'S COMING BACK NEXT YEAR.

AND, SO, WE'LL EE.

EL NINO WINTERS, IF IT HANGS ON THROUGH NEXT WINTER, STRONG CORRELATION WITH MILDER, DRIER WEATHER.

TIME WILL TELL.

QUICK REVIEW OF 025, YES, STATEWIDE IT WAS WARMER THAN AVERAGE, WINDIER THAN AVERAGE, THAT SEEMS TO BE A TREND.

THE DROUGHT DID EASE SLIGHTLY.

BUT THERE'S STILL POCKETS OF SEVERE DROUGHT UP NEAR DULUTH.

AND WILDFIRE SMOKE, THOUGHT TO BE THE THIRD WORST ON RECORD BEHIND 2023 AND 2021.

>> Cathy: SAY, BEFORE YOU GO, I'VE GOT TO ASK YOU, TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WANTS TO DISMANTLE THE NATION'S PREMIER CLIMATE AND WEATHER RESEARCH CENTER IN COLORADO.

WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THAT?

>> AS A METEOROLOGIST, I THINK IT'S ILL ADVISED TO TRY TO DISMANTLE THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, THEY'RE THE GOLD STANDARD FOR WEATHER AND CLIMATE RESEARCH.

AND I KNOW THE CLIMATE PART MAKES SOME PEOPLE, PERHAPS, A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE, BUT YOU CAN'T SEPARATE OUT THE TWO.

YOU WARM UP THE CLIMATE, IT'S GOING TO MEAN MORE EXTREME HURRICANES, IT HAS AN IMPACT ON TORNADOES AND FLOODING.

>> Eric: TO BE CONTINUED.

>> SO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

>> Cathy: ALL RIGHT.