TURN GLOOMY ♪ >> Cathy: I STILL LOVE THAT SONG.

OF COURSE THAT IS "THE WRECK OF THE EDMUND FITZGERALD," A GORDON LIGHTFOOT BALLAD THAT CHRONICLES THE TRAGIC SINKING OF THE FITZGERALD 50 YEARS AGO MONDAY.

IT'S ALWAYS BEEN CLOSELY TIED TO MINNESOTA.

THE FREIGHTER LEFT SUPERIOR, WISCONSIN, LOADED UP WITH ORE AND HEADED EAST ON LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE AFTERNOON OF NOVEMBER 9TH, 1975.

IT TRAVELED THROUGH A FIERCE STORM AND WAS NEARING SAULT ST.

MARIE WHEN IT SANK IN CANADIAN WATERS NORTH OF MICHIGAN'S WHITEFISH POINT.

ALL 29 CREW MEMBERS DIED.

WE'RE GOING TO TALK WITH PAUL DOUGLAS ABOUT THE GALES OF NOVEMBER THAT HIT EARLY THAT FALL.

WHEN PAUL ISN'T ON OUR AIRWAVES, YOU CAN CATCH HIS PREDICTIONS IN THE "STAR TRIBUNE."

IN HIS SPARE TIME, HE RUNS HIS OWN WEATHER COMPANY, PRAEDICTIX.

THE SINKING OF THE FITZGERALD OF COURSE IS A MYSTERY THAT HAS YET TO BE SOLVED, AND PROBABLY NEVER WILL, I GUESS, BUT THAT STORM, THOSE WHO ACTUALLY SAW IT ON THE LAKE AND WHO LIVED THROUGH IT SAID IT WAS AMAZING.

>> YEAH, IT WAS A HUMBLING VENT.

I MEAN, OBVIOUSLY FOR SAILORS, THE FAMILIES, THE SHOCKAWAY, IN THE SUPERIOR-DULUTH AREA, AFTER NEWS GOT OUT.

AND, YEAH, THE WEATHER SERVICE AT THE TIME UNDERESTIMATED THE FEROCITY OF THE STORM.

THE EDMUND FITZGERALD, THE MOST NOTABLE SINKING OF A VESSEL.

IT WAS THE BIGGEST THING ON THE GREAT LAKES AT THAT TIME BACK IN .

75.

BUT AN ESTIMATED 6,000 TO 10,000 SHIPWRECKS HAVE TAKEN PLACE ON THE GREAT LAKES SINCE THE 1700S.

AND BECAUSE OF THIS, PRESIDENT ULYSSES GRANT BACK IN 1870, STARTED THE ARMY SIGNAL SERVICE, WHICH BASICALLY WAS COLLECTING REAL-TIME DATA TO PROVIDE TO MARINERS TO TRY TO CUT DOWN ON THE SHIPWRECKS.

>> Eric: WHAT WERE THE ELEMENTS OF THIS STORM THAT NIGHT?

>> WELL, AGAIN, WE HAD A VERY POWERFUL BOMB PSYCH LONE.

POWERFUL BOMB PSYCH LO CYCLONE.

AND AS YOU CAN SEE ON THE MAP, ON THE GRAPHICS, WE DO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THAT PROBABLY WAS NUSUAL AT THAT TIME.

BUT THEY UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH.

IT WAS A VERY INTENSE STORM.

ALMOST LIKE A LAND HURRICANE.

OBVIOUSLY NOT A HURRICANE.

THE SHIP LEFT AT 2:00 FROM SUPERIOR.

7:00, GALE WARNINGS WERE ISSUED.

AFTER IT HAD ALREADY SET SAIL.

THE NEW DAY, IT WAS UPGRADED TO A STORM WARNING.

AND, AGAIN, WHO KNOWS?

IT'S EASY TO SECOND-GUESS.

BUT THEY WERE HEADING RIGHT INTO THE WORST OF THE STORM.

N.O.A.A.

HAS DONE A REANALYSIS OF THE STORM SUGGESTING THAT THE WAVES WERE 10 METERS.

30 FEET.

>> Cathy: WHICH IS ABOUT THE --G ABOUT THIS.

IT'S ABOUT AS HIGH AS THE CEILING IS IN THIS STUDIO WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THAT.

>> YEAH.

IT'S -- AGAIN, UNLESS YOU'RE ON AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER OR A U.S.

DESTROYER, IT'S ALMOST UNSURVIVABLE.

AND SO IT WENT DOWN IN 530 FEET OF WATER.

NO TIME TO DEPLOY THE LIFE RAFTS.

ALL 29 SAILORS LOST THEIR LIVES.

SINCE THEN, YOU KNOW, THE CRASH SITE, WHAT'S LEFT OF THE SHIP, BROKE INTO TWO PIECES, STILL COMPETING THEORIES EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED.

WE DON'T KNOW.

IT JUST HAPPENED QUICKLY.

>> Eric: WAS HIS ONE OF THESE 100-YEAR TYPE GALES?

>> YES.

YES.

AND FORECASTS HAVE IMPROVED AND EVOLVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THEN.

WE HAVE MORE WEATHER MODELS, MORE HORSEPOWER, MORE DATA.

I'D LIKE TO ELIEVE SOMETHING SIMILAR COULDN'T HAPPEN TODAY.

BUT THIS WAS 1975.

>> Cathy: RIGHT.

>> AND I THINK EVERY TIME I HEAR THAT TUNE FROM GORDON LIGHTFOOT, I'VE HEARD IT HUNDREDS OF TIMES, I STILL GET CHILLS.

>> Cathy: SAY, LET'S QUICKLY TALK ABOUT FALL?

CAN WE DO THAT?

REALLY WARM.

WHAT THE HECK?

>> T WAS ANOTHER SUPERSIZEDSIZED SUMMER.

ALL THAT SUMMER WARMTH SPILLED OVER INTO SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER.

THE FOURTH WARMEST ON RECORD SINCE 1873 FOR THE TWIN CITIES AND MOST OF MINNESOTA.

AND YEAH, ASK A FARMER.

GROWING SEASON IS GETTING LONGER.

IT WAS THE FOURTH LONGEST GROWING SEASON.

THE ALL-TIME RECORD WAS BACK IN 2016.

219 DAYS.

WE HAD 199 DAYS BETWEEN THE LAST FROST OF SPRING AND THE FIRST FROST OF WINTER.

AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE IS CLOSER TO 167.

ONE OF THE BIG THINGS WE'RE TRACKING, WE NEED SOME STORMS.

HOPEFULLY NOT A BOMB CYCLONE BUT 22% OF THE STATE IN MODERATE DROUGHT, SEVERE DROUGHT.

AND YEAH, WE'RE GOING TO GET SMACKED, SUNDAY, MAYBE A COATING OF SNOW.

WE WILL SURVIVE.

THE WINDCHILLS DOWN AROUND 10.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING.

AND THEN WE'RE GOING TO BE BACK UP INTO THE 40s AND 50s.

AND THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE LOOKING OUT, REALLY INTO THANKSGIVING, SHOWS A WARM BIAS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

I DON'T THINK WE'VE SEEN THE LAST 50s.

HOPEFULLY, WE WILL SEE A WETTER PATTERN.

PEOPLE KEEP ASKING ME ABOUT THE WINTER.

MY GUT?

WHICH DOESN'T COUNT FOR MUCH.

I THINK IT IS GOING TO BE SNOWIER THAN THE LAST TWO WINTERS.

29 INCHES THE LAST TWO WINTERS.

>> Cathy: REALLY WIMPY.

>> I THINK IT'LL BE COLDER.

I'M NOT CONVINCED IT'S GOING TO BE A POLAR VORTEX WINTER.

BY THE WAY, MARK SEELEY HAS A FREE LECTURE WEDNESDAY, NOON, AT ST.

PAUL AT THE LANDMARK CENTER.

>> Cathy: ABOUT THE CLIMATOLOGY AND THE WEATHER THAT HAPPENED THE DAY OF THE FITZGERALD.

>> HE DOES AN AMAZING JOB WITH THIS.

>> Cathy: SO