>> CATHY: THERE'S JUST 214 DAYS UNTIL ELECTION DAY.

YOU ARE FOREWARNED.

THE PRESUMED REMATCH BETWEEN CURRENT PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN AND FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP HAS MANY VOTERS LESS THAN EXCITED.

SO WHAT ARE VOTERS THINKING ABOUT?

WARS IN MIDDLE EAST AND THE UKRAINE.

CLOSER TO HOME ECONOMIC ISSUES ARE USUALLY TOP OF MIND.

HERE WITH MORE, THIS MONTH'S TRIO OF POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSORS.

LARRY JACOBS HEADS UP THE CENTER FOR POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE AT THE U OF M'S HUMPHREY SCHOOL.

DAVID SCHULTZ IS A PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND LEGAL STUDIES AT HAMLINE UNIVERSITY.

KATHRYN PEARSON'S ACADEMIC HOME IS THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA WHERE SHE FOCUSES ON AMERICAN POLITICS AND CONGRESS.

PROFESSOR JACOBS, EVIDENTLY THE HOUSE IS SCHEDULED TO VOTE NEXT WEEK TO REBUKE THE PRESIDENT'S CALL FOR AN IMMEDIATE CEASE-FIRE IN GAZA.

HE HAD THIS KIND OF FRAUGHT CALL WITH BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, LET'S TALK ABOUT THE POLITICS OF THIS.

THIS SEEMS LIKE THIS COULD BE KIND OF MESSY IN THE HOUSE.

>> OH, YEAH, IT'S GOING TO BE MESSY, PLUS WE SEE IN THE SENATE WE'VE GOT DEMOCRATS, AND DEMOCRATS IN THE HOUSE, WHO ARE LINING UP PUSHING JOE BIDEN, THEY DON'T FEEL LIKE JOE BIDEN IS GOING FAR ENOUGH.

THERE'S TALK BOUT HOLDING UP SALE OF PLANES, MILITARY PLANES, POSSIBLY WEAPONS OF OTHER SORTS TO ISRAEL.

AND NOW THE PRESIDENT'S GOING TO GET HAMMERED BY THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS.

I MEAN, THE ISSUE HERE IS, YOU'VE GOT A FRAUGHT WAR IN GAZA THAT'S INTERNATIONALLY REJECTED AND IT'S PLAYING INTO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HERE IN WHICH YOU'VE GOT REPUBLICANS HOPING TO PEEL AWAY MORE JEWISH VOTERS AND JEWISH DONORS, SO, YEAH, IT'S POLITICS WASHINGTON STYLE.

>> Cathy: WOW.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

WHAT'S HAPPENING?

>> I WAS GOING TO ADD TO IT AND SAY, SINCE THE HOUSE WANTED TO IMPEACH JOE BIDEN FOR THE LONGEST TIME, THEY CAN'T IMPEACH HIM, LET'S REBUKE HIM AT THIS POINT.

PART OF IT IS ABOUT PEELING OFF VOTERS, BUT IT'S ALSO, I THINK, IN PART, ABOUT THE REPUBLICANS TRYING TO FIND SOME WAY OF CONTINUING TO DAMAGE JOE BIDEN, KEEPING HIM ON DEFENSIVE.

AND THIS BECOMES ANOTHER WAY OF DOING IT.

AND IT'S A WAY OF SPLINTTERING THE DEMOCRATIC COALITION AT THIS POINT.

PEEL JEWISH VOTERS AWAY, ALIENATE PROGRESSIVE VOTERS.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

BUT, MEANWHILE, REPUBLICANS ARE DIVIDED OVER UKRAINE AND, SO, THAT IS YET ONE MORE THING THAT SPEAKER JOHNSON HAS ON HIS PLATE, WHO KNOWS IF HE'LL BE ABLE TO EAL WITH IT, YOU KNOW, RIGHT BEFORE RECESS REPRESENTATIVE MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE, YOU NO, FILED A MOTION TO VACATE, WHO KNOWS IF THAT WILL ACTUALLY COME UP FOR A VOTE.

SO BOTH PARTIES HAVE THEIR OWN INTERNAL FACTIONS AND DYNAMICS TO CONTEND WITH.

>> Cathy: I WANT TO ASK ABOUT HIM.

DO YOU THINK HE'S -- IS HE -- HOW MUCH TROUBLE IS THE SPEAKER IN?

>> WELL, I MEAN, HE IS IN TROUBLE IN THE SENSE THAT HE DOES NOT HAVE THE FULL SUPPORT OF HIS HOUSE REPUBLICANS WHO HAVE NOW AT THIS POINT A ONE-SEAT MAJORITY.

THAT SAID, YOU KNOW, THEY DON'T HAVE MUCH TIME LEFT WHERE THE -- BEFORE THE END OF THE SESSION SO I'M NOT SO SURE THIS WILL ACTUALLY COME TO A VOTE.

BUT, YOU KNOW, THEY HAVE LOST SIX RULES, WHICH GIVE THE MAJORITY PARTY AGENDA CONTROL, WHICH HASN'T HAPPENED IN DECADES.

>> Eric: NOW YOU WROTE THE ORIGINAL BOOK, WAS IT NINE STATES DECIDE THE PRESIDENCY?

AND NOW YOU'RE DOWN TO SEVEN?

>> I SAID TEN.

NOW IT'S DOWN TO SIX -- FIVE OR SIX, DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU WANT TO GO.

>> Eric: WELL, FOR ALL YOU GUYS, IN SIX OF THE SEVEN SWING STATES.

>> YES.

>> Eric: WISCONSIN THE EXCEPTION.

>> THAT'S RIGHT.

>> Eric: TRUMP IS WINNING.

>> YUP.

>> Eric: BUT HE'S BELOW 50% IN ALL THOSE STATES.

IS THIS SOMETHING MEANINGFUL OR NOT?

>> YES.

ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT POLLS -- FIRST OFF, REMEMBER POLLS ARE NOT PREDICTORS, THEY'RE SNAPSHOTS IN TIME.

ALSO, FOR ALL ALL THE POLLS IN ALL OF THOSE STATES, IF I REMEMBER CORRECTLY, THEY'RE ALL WITHIN THE MARGINS OF ERROR.

IT IS INCREDIBLY CLOSE.

I MEAN, I'VE BEEN ARGUING THAT THIS ELECTION IS GOING TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT 150,000 VOTERS, YOU KNOW, GIVE OR TAKE ACROSS, YOU KNOW, FIVE OR SIX STATES.

THAT'S REALLY WHAT'S GOING TO DECIDE THE ELECTION.

LOU JACOBSON, WHO DOES SOME REALLY GOOD WORK, IS ACTUALLY NOW STARTING TO HIGHLIGHT, SOMETHING THAT I'VE ALSO BEEN TALKING ABOUT, THE ELECTION IS DOWN TO SWING VOTERS IN A FEW SWING COUNTIES IN A FEW SWING STATES.

>> CERTAINLY SWING VOTERS?

SWING STATES BUT ALSO BASE VOTERS IN SWING STATES.

>> YES.

>> SO WILL THE TWO CANDIDATES, THE TWO PARTIES BE ABLE TO MOBILIZE THEIR BASE FOR CANDIDATES WHO AREN'T THAT POPULAR WITHIN THEIR OWN PARTY RIGHT NOW?

AND I THINK THAT, YOU KNOW, THERE WILL BE A LOT OF BOTH REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS WHO COME HOME TO THEIR CANDIDATE CLOSER TO THE ELECTION.

BUT RIGHT NOW BOTH PARTIES ARE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT TURNOUT OF THEIR BASE.

>> SO I THINK TO FILL THAT OUT, YOU KNOW, WE'RE LOOKING AT NIKKI HALEY PULLED OUT, WHAT, A MONTH AGO.

STILL ABOUT ONE OUT OF FIVE REPUBLICANS VOTING FOR HER.

EVEN THOUGH SHE'S NOT A CANDIDATE.

AND WE KNOW FROM EXITY POLLS THAT SOME -- EXITY POLLS SOME PERCENT JUST REJECT TRUMP.

EXIT.

MEANWHILE, YOU'VE GOT THE UNCOMMITTED VOTE IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, WHICH IS A PROTEST VOTE FOR THE PRESIDENT'S POLICY IN GAZA.

YOU'VE GOT ROBERT KENNEDY, WHO'S DOING VERY WELL.

EVEN THOUGH THE NO LABELS GROUP CAME OUT YESTERDAY AND SAID THEY WERE NOT GOING TO PUT UP A CANDIDATE, THE THIRD PARTY PROBABLY HURTS BIDEN A BIT MORE THAN TRUMP.

>> I WANT TO ADD A COMPLICATION TO IT BECAUSE THIS BECOMES HE POLITICAL SCIENTIST NIGHTMARE NOW FOR PREDICTIONS BECAUSE IF YOU JUST HAVE TWO CANDIDATES RUNNING WITH NO VIABLE THIRD PARTIES, SO SOME OF THOSE PEOPLE WHO DON'T LIKE BIDEN OR TRUMP WILL COME HOME, SOME AREN'T GOING TO VOTE.

NOW YOU'VE GOT THE COMPLICATION OF SAYING, WELL, HECK, I CAN GO VOTE FOR RFK JR., I CAN VOTE FOR SOMEBODY ELSE.

SO NOW TRY TO CALCULATE IT OUT.

AND I ACTUALLY THINK -- I MEAN, LARRY'S RIGHT ON THIS ONE, I ACTUALLY THINK IT HURTS BIDEN MORE BECAUSE THIS ELECTION, I STILL THINK IS MORE OF A REFERENDUM ON THE INCUMBENT, WHO'S BIDEN, AND THE THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATE PROBABLY, I THINK, IN THIS CASE HERE, MAY BE DRAWING A LITTLE BIT MORE FROM THE PEOPLE WHO WOULD OTHERWISE MAYBE VOTE FOR BIDEN.

>> Eric: WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE ARIZONA, MONTANA AND OHIO SENATE RACES?

>> THAT THEY WILL BE VERY VERY COMPETITIVE AND DETERMINE THE CONTROL OF THE SENATE.

I MEAN, RIGHT NOW, IF I HAD TO PREDICT, I WOULD SAY THE SENATE LEANS REPUBLICAN, OF COURSE, IT'S CURRENTLY DEMOCRAT AND THE HOUSE LEANS DEMOCRATIC AND IT'S CURRENTLY REPUBLICAN.

BUT ALL OF THESE RACES WILL BE VERY CLOSE.

AND I THINK WE WON'T KNOW CONTROL OF, OU KNOW, CONGRESS OR THE WHITE HOUSE ON ELECTION NIGHT.

AND I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO REALLY START BEING CLEAR ABOUT THAT.

AND THEN THE OTHER THING I WOULD SAY IS SOME OF THESE STATES, LIKE FLORIDA, FOR EXAMPLE, ARE HAVING ABORTION ON THE BALLOT AS WELL.

AND THAT WILL HELP DEMOCRATS.

YOU KNOW, MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR FLORIDA TO REALLY BE IN PLAY, BUT CERTAINLY IN SOME OF THESE CONGRESSIONAL RACES.

>> AND THEN YOU'VE GOT THESE CLOSE RACES WHERE YOU'VE GOT INCUMBENTS ROM THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY WHO ARE FACING REPUBLICANS AND THE PRIMARY HAS NOMINATED SOME PRETTY FAR RIGHT CANDIDATES, PARTICULARLY IN OHIO, WHICH COULD HAVE BEEN A STATE THAT WOULD HAVE MOVED MORE PREDICTABLY IN A REPUBLICAN DIRECTION.

NOW THAT'S GOING TO BE VERY -- A VERY CLOSER ELECTION THAN WE MIGHT HAVE EXPECTED.

>> I WOULD ADD ONE MORE THING.

WHEN YOU OPENED UP THE SEGMENT HERE, YOU SAID 214 DAYS WHATEVER TO THE ELECTION.

ACTUALLY SUBTRACT 45 FROM THAT.

YOU KNOW, BECAUSE WE'RE GOING TO START TO SEE, REMEMBER, EARLY VOTING ACROSS THE COUNTRY SO THAT, THINK ABOUT IT NOW, WE'RE ACTUALLY GOING TO START SEEING VOTING THE LAST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

>> Cathy: OH, NO.

>> AND -- >> THAT'S TRUE, THOUGH.

>> I MENTION THIS BECAUSE THINK ABOUT THE CHALLENGES FOR A RACE THIS LOSE, AS YOU HAVE ESSENTIALLY ROLLING VOTING GOING FOR 45 DAYS, TRYING TO MAKE YOUR FINAL MESSAGE WHEN YOU HAVE TO THINK ABOUT, I'VE GOT TO START WORRYING ABOUT THIS ON SEPTEMBER, WHAT, 30th, OCTOBER 15th, ET CETERA, THIS JUST MAKES IT EVEN MORE COMPLICATED.

>> Cathy: AND HOW DO YOU -- HOW DO YOU AMPAIGN?

I MEAN, HOW -- YOU'RE RIGHT.

THAT IS SO DIFFICULT.

>> BECAUSE IT'S NOT LIKE RUNNING A MARATHON WHERE IT USED TO BE, YOU GET TO THE END, YEAH.

NOW IT'S OLLING.

>> THE CAMPAIGN IS ALL ABOUT YOUR VOTERS.

I THINK THIS IS GOING TO BE ALL ABOUT THE DATA ON WHERE OUR VOTERS ARE LOCATED AND OR DEMOCRATS, THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT VOTERS OF COLOR.

THERE'S BEEN POLLING COMING OUT SHOWING A VERY SIGNIFICANT FALLOFF IN TERMS OF BLACK SUPPORT FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, HISPANIC SUPPORT FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

>> Cathy: WHERE DO THEY GO, WHERE DO HE VOTERS GO?

>> THEY GO FOR REPUBLICANS.

>> IT'S TOO SOON TO SAY THIS WILL HAPPEN BECAUSE THERE'S A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VOTING AND, YOU KNOW, POLL.

>> YOUNG VOTERS AS WELL.

>> YES.

>> Eric: CARL ROVES FORMULA IS 90% OF YOUR PARTY'S VOTERS AND MOST OF THE INDEPENDENTS.

WITH ALL THESE UNCOMMITTED VOTES, IS BIDEN NOT GOING TO GET 90% OR TRUMP NOT GOING TO GET 09%?

>> I THINK GIVEN WHAT WE SAW IN THE LAST TWOW THE LAST ELECTION WHERE TRUMP GOT 94% OF REPUBLICANS AND BIDEN GOT 93% OF DEMOCRATS, THE VOTERS WHO VOTE WILL COME HOME.

I THINK, AGAIN, TO SORT OF GO BACK TO WHAT I SAID EARLIER, TURNOUT WILL BE SO CRITICAL, ESPECIALLY AMONG THESE YOUNGER VOTERS, WHO TYPICALLY DON'T TURN OUT AT THE SAME RATE ANYWAY, AND WHO ARE PARTICULARLY DISILLUSIONED WITH BIDEN ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE BECAUSE OF THE WAR IN GAZA.

>> RIGHT.

I THINK THE MPHASIS YOU MADE HERE IS PERFECT HERE.

IT'S GOING TO BE THE DEPTH, NOT THE PERCENTAGE, BUT IT'S GOING TO BE HE DEPTH OF HOW MUCH PEOPLE SHOW UP.

>> Eric: CAN'T WAIT TO DISCUSS IT MORE WITH YOU GUYS DOWN THE ROAD.