>> CATHY: AS WE SAW EARLIER, IN THE SHOW, MINNESOTA'S STATEWIDE PRIMARIES ARE HEATING UP.

AND TODAY IN D.C., SENATE REPUBLICANS PASSED A $70 BILLION IMMIGRATION FUNDING BILL, WHICH HEADS TO THE HOUSE NEXT WEEK.

HERE TO BREAK IT ALL DOWN, DAVID SCHULTZ TEACHES POLITICAL SCIENCE AT HAMLINE UNIVERSITY AND IS ALSO AN ADJUNCT LAW PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ST.

THOMAS.

KATHRYN PEARSON TEACHES POLITICAL SCIENCE.

ONE OF HER AREAS OF EXPERTISE IS CONGRESS.

AND ROUNDING OUT THE PANEL, STEVE SCHIER IS A PROFESSOR EMERITUS AT CARLETON COLLEGE.

PROFESSOR EMERITUS SCHIER, LET'S TALK ABOUT THE CONVENTIONS.

NOW, THERE'S, WHAT?

15 CONTESTANTS IN GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARIES.

I MEAN, U.S.

SENATE PRIMARIES.

WHAT'S THE POINT BEHIND THESE CONVENTIONS?

>> WELL, THE POINT OF A PRIMARY IS THAT YOU HAVE TO HAVE RESOURCES AND NAME RECOGNITION IN ORDER TO WIN.

AND IT'S NOT CLEAR THAT THE CONVENTIONS, PARTICULARLY THE G.O.P.

CONVENTION, ENDORSE CANDIDATES THAT HAVE EITHER.

AND SO I WOULD SAY THAT'S A PROBLEM FOR THE G.O.P.

GOING FORWARD.

AND WE'LL SEE HOW THAT PLAYS OUT BETWEEN NOW AND AUGUST.

>> Eric: YOU'VE WANTED TO SCRAP THE SYSTEM FOR 20 YEARS.

>> YEAH, I WROTE PIECES BACK A LONG TIME AGO SAYING, CAUCUSES, CONVENTIONS, PRIMARIES, THEY DON'T ALL FIT TOGETHER.

BUT I ALSO WANT TO ADD SOMETHING BECAUSE I THINK YOU'RE ALKING ABOUT THE REPUBLICANS.

THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A PROBLEM ALSO TOO HERE.

NEITHER THE KONG NEITHER THE KO CONVENTIONS SPEAK TO WHAT WE WOULD CALL THE AVERAGE VOTERS IN MINNESOTA.

I DID A STUDY RECENTLY.

MINNESOTA COMES IN AT ABOUT A 60 ON A SCALE FOR WHERE THE AVERAGE VOTER IS.

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY COMES IN AT 80.

THE REPUBLICANS COME IN AT 23.

THEY'RE BOTH WAY OFF FROM WHERE THEY ARE.

WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT FOR THE REPUBLICANS WHY THEY KEEP LOSING FOR 20 YEARS?

THEY'RE WAY OUT OF LINE.

AND FOR THE DEMOCRATS, PEOPLE WHO ARE COMING OUT OF THE ENDORSEMENT PROCESS THERE ARE ALSO OUT OF LINE.

>> Eric: ONE OF THE BENEFITS OF THE CAUCUS/CONVENTION SYSTEM IS THAT IT'S SUPPOSED TO ALLOW PEOPLE WITHOUT MONEY, PAUL WELLSTONE, JOAN GROWE BACK IN THE '70s.

>> RIGHT, THEY GET TO KNOW MORE PEOPLE.

DELEGATES ARE FAR FROM A RANDOM SAMPLE.

THESE ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE INCREDIBLY ENGAGED, TEND TOKER MORE EXTREME ON BOTH SIDES, AND HAVE BOTH THE IME AND RESOURCES TO GO TO THEIR PRECINCT CAUCUSES, TAKE TIME AWAY FROM FAMILY OR WORK AND THEN GO TO A CONVENTION.

I THINK THERE'S SOME REAL SMALL-D DEMOCRATIC REPRESENTATION ISSUES WITH THE CAUCUS ELECTORATE AS COMPARED TO THE PRIMARY ELECTORATE WHICH IS ALSO SMALLER THAN THE GENERAL.

>> YEAH, IF YOU WANT TO HAVE A REPRESENTATIVE PROCESS, YOU'VE GOT TO HAVE LOWER COSTS OF PARTICIPATION AND THE CAUCUS CONVENTION SYSTEM IS VERY COSTLY IN TERMS OF TIME.

ONLY 11 STATES INCLUDING MINNESOTA HAVE AN ENDORSEMENT PROCESS.

39 OF THEM GO TO PRIMARIES AND THEY HAVE MUCH BIGGER PARTICIPATION IN THE CONCLUSIVE PROCESS THEN.

>> Cathy: EARLIER IN THE SHOW, THERE WAS A LITTLE FAN YOID THAT WE HAD IN ONE OF THE INTRODUCTIONS.

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN STATE HISTORY, DEMOCRATS HAVE FILED FOR EVERY LEGISLATIVE SEAT.

IT'S THE FEWEST REPUBLICANS WHO HAVE FILED SINCE WATERGATE.

WHAT IS BEHIND THAT?

>> DEMOCRATS O HAVE THE RESOURCES TO BASICALLY RUN A FULL SLATE.

YOU KNOW, CAMPAIGNING FOR THE WHOLE STATE.

BUT REPUBLICANS, WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THIS, I DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH MONEY THEY HAVE IN THE BANK TO START WITH.

TWO, WHILE TRUMP HAS TAKEN A GREATER CONTROL OVER THE PARTY, THE BASE IS GETTING SMALLER AND SMALLER, AND IN MANY WAYS, AGAIN, POINTING OUT WHAT WE WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT A MINUTE AGO HERE, THEY REALLY ARE CONSOLIDATING AND I THINK IT'S MAKING IT HARDER FOR THEM TO RECRUIT.

>> Eric: IOWA IS NOW THE FLAVOR OF THE WEEK AFTER THE PRIMARY THERE ON TUESDAY?

>> RIGHT, WELL, REALLY MARKED AN EXCEPTION TO WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING IN PRIMARIES WITH TRUMP ENDORSED CANDIDATES RECENTLY.

SO TO BE CLEAR, THE VAST MAJORITY OF INCUMBENTS SURVIVED THEIR PRIMARIES, BUT IT IS THE CASE THAT IN TWO HIGH PROFILE U.S.

SENATE RACES THE INCUMBENTS WERE NOT ENDORSED BY RESIDENT TRUMP AND LOST PRETTY BADLY.

AND SO THAT OF OURSE SENDS SENDS PANIC INTO SENATORS AND MEMBERS OF CONGRESS WHO ARE NOT ENDORSED BY TRUMP.

ALSO MASSY IN KENTUCKY.- WESO MASSY IN KENTUCKY.- WE H MASSY IN KENTUCKY.- WE HADASSY IN KENTUCKY.- WE HAD ASY IN KENTUCKY.- WE HAD A C IN KENTUCKY.- WE HAD A CASN KENTUCKY.- WE HAD A CASE KENTUCKY.- WE HAD A CASE INNTUCKY.- WE HAD A CASE IN IUCKY.- WE HAD A CASE IN I.CKY.- WE HAD A CASE IN I.CKY.- WHERE TRUMP'S CANDIDATE, A LATE ENDORSEMENT DID NOT WIN THE NOMINATION.

BUT I THINK THAT ALSO SPEAKS TO THE FACT THAT IOWA EVERYONES, IOWA REPUBLICANS, ARE SORT OF LOOKING AT TARIFFS, LOOKING AT SOME THINGS GOING ON AND TRYING TO MAKE SENSE OF WHO WOULD BE A BETTER GENERAL ELECTION CANDIDATE.

>> Eric: IS THE FEAR FACTOR FOR REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS DIMINISHING?

>> WELL, I'M NOT SURE IT'S DIMINISHING WITH SENATE REPUBLICANS.

>> Eric: BUT THEY'RE NOT AS AFRAID -- SENATOR CORNIN GETS BEAT IN THE PRIMARY, HE'S A FREE AGENT NOW, RIGHT?

>> RIGHT.

AND TILLIS, FOR EXAMPLE, I THINK THEY FEEL FREE, BECAUSE THEY HAVE BEEN REPUDIATED.

ON THE OTHER HAND, YOU KNOW, IF YOU ARE AN INCUMBENT SENATOR, YOU HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT YOUR PARTY BASE.

AND IN MOST STATES, THAT'S GOING TO BE A TRUMP ORIENTATION, AND YOU CAN'T GO TOO FAR FROM THAT AT THE END OF THE DAY.

>> IT IS ALSO THE CASE, THOUGH, THAT IN A LOT OF THE AMENDMENTS THAT WE SAW TO THE RECONCILIATION BILL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, WE DID SEE THOSE MORE VULNERABLE REPUBLICANS BREAKING WITH THE PRESIDENT.

WE SAW THAT ON F.I.S.A., FOR EXAMPLE.

>> WHAT YOU'RE SEEING IS ALSO A NATIONAL TREND THAT'S OCCURRING IS BECAUSE TRUMP IS REALLY A LAME DUCK AT THIS POINT, AT SOME POINT, I MEAN, THEY HAVE LOYALTY TO HIM, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, THEY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT WHAT?

THEIR OWN REELECTION AT THIS TIME.

AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ELECTION AND AS WE GET PAST THE MIDTERM ELECTION, THAT TO ME IS GOING TO BE MORE INTERESTING TO LOOK AT IN TERMS OF THE FACT THAT THEY DON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT TRUMP RUNNING AGAIN.

>> YEAH, BUT BETWEEN NOW AND 2026 ELECTION, TRUMP HAS REALLY GOTTEN CONTROL OF A LOT OF -- >> OH, YES, OF COURSE, YES.

>> AND HE IS GOING TO BE USING THAT IN MESSAGING, AND IN ENFORCING THAT WITH HIS OWN CANDIDATES.

>> RIGHT.

>> TRUE, BUT IT WILL ALSO BE VERY HARD FOR EVEN A REPUBLICAN CONTROLLED SENATE AND HOUSE TO GET A LOT OF LEGISLATIVE ACTION DONE.

I MEAN, THEY HAVE AN AGENDA.

THEY PASSED THIS RECONCILIATION BILL.

THAT WAS CRITICAL.

BUT THEY'RE LOOKING AT HOUSING, SOME DEREGULATION, AND THEY HAVE SUCH THIN MARGINS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HOUSE, HOIN THEHOUSE, IT'S HARD TO SAYT THEY'RE GOING TO BE A LOT LEFT TO GET DONE IN THE NEXT COMING MONTHS.

>> Eric: SO I.C.E.

GOT FUNDED BUT THE RELIEF FUND, THE 1.776 FUND, THAT WAS NOT TOUCHED?

>> NO.

>> Eric: WHAT DOES THAT TELL US, IF ANYTHING?

>> I THINK IT SPEAKS TO KATHRYN'S POINT THAT YOU CAN'T EXPECT 100% LOYALTY IN THE SITUATION THAT YOU HAVE.

TRUMP IS TRYING TO GET AS MUCH AS HE CAN FROM A NUMBER OF MEMBERS WHO ARE SOMEWHAT RESISTANT AND YOU GET THESE SORTS OF RESULTSES.

>> IT IS ALSO THE CASE THAT THE PRESIDENT IS MAKING HARDER FOR SENATE REPUBLICANS THAN THEY NEEDED TO BE, WITH, YOU KNOW, THE DNI NOMINEE, THE FUND, IT DIDN'T NEED TO BE QUITE THIS HARD.

>> Cathy: I WANT TO GO BACK TO SOMETHING THAT WE TALKED ABOUT, PROFESSOR KIRTLEY, A.I., POLITICALLY HERE, PEGGY FLANAGAN, THE CRAIG BASED P.A.C.

OF USING AN A.I.

GENERATED IMAGE OF PEGGY FLANAGAN.

AND I WONDER HOW MESSY WILL A.I.

MAKE POLITICS?

>> FIRST OFF, IT'S GOING TO MAKE IT MESSY.

BUT MINNESOTA'S LAW IS NE OF THE FIRST IN THE COUNTRY TO TRY TO ADDRESS IT.

THERE'S REAL QUESTIONS THERE REGARDING FIRST AMENDMENT VAGUENESS KIND OF THINGS.

BUT THE OTHER ISSUE S, THINK ABOUT IT RIGHT NOW.

WE SEE A LOT OF ADS RIGHT NOW THAT SHOW CANDIDATES IN VERY DISTORTED SLOW MOTION, BLACK AND WHITE SITUATIONS.

YOU KNOW, AND NOT VERY GOOD DEPICTIONS HERE.

AND THOSE ARE UPHELD AS PERFECTLY CONSTITUTIONAL.

A.I.

IS ONLY I THINK A HAIR'S BREADTH AWAY FROM THAT.

AND SO I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE HARD TO POLICE THE A.I.

ON THIS GIVE THE CURRENT FRAMEWORK OF THE LAW.

>> Eric: NOW, WE JUST GOT A SEMESTER FULL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE IN TEN MINUTES.

>> WE DID ACTUALLY.

>> Eric: SUPER JOB.

WE'LL HAVE YOU BACK, THANKS.

WE'RE DONE.

>> Cathy: , WELL, WE OF COURSE ARE OUT OF TIME.

BUT WE'LL ASK YOU ONCE MORE TO TELL US WHAT YOU THINK OF THE SHOW IN OUR ANNUAL "ALMANAC" VIEWER SURVEY.

IT TAKES JUST A FEW MINUTES IF YOU CAN SPARE THEM.

SCAN THE Q.R.

CODE ON THE SCREEN, OR GO TO TPT.ORG/ALMANACSURVEY.

THANKS FOR THE HELP.

WE APPRECIATE IT.

WE HAVE JUST A FEW MOMENTS LEFT OF THE SHOW.

LET'S SPEND IT WITH THE GREATER TWIN CITIES YOUTH SYMPHONIES' QUARTET SELENE.

THEY ARE SO GOOD.

TAKE IT AWAY.

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