>> Eric: JOINING US NOW WITH THEIR CAMPAIGN COMMENTS ARE A COUPLE OF POLITICAL SCIENTISTS, KATHRYN PEARSON, PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA, CINDY RUGELEY IS THE HEAD OF THE POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT AT UMD.

WHO VOTES FOR PRESIDENT BASED ON THE RUNNING MATE?

>> VIRTUALLY NO ONE.

SO THIS IS A CONTEST BETWEEN TRUMP AND HARRIS.

BUT NONETHELESS, THAT DOESN'T MEAN THE RUNNING MATES AREN'T IMPORTANT FOR GENERATING EXCITEMENT AND ENTHUSIASM AND SOME CRITICISM.

>> Eric: SO IS THIS A NET PLUS PLUS PLUS FOR THE DEMOCRATS, OR WE DON'T KNOW YET BASED ON WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS?

>> YOU KNOW WHAT, WE DON'T KNOW ANYTHING YET.

I MEAN, SO MUCH HAS HAPPENED IN THIS CAMPAIGN.

WHEN PEOPLE SAY, THIS IS WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN, I KNOW WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN, HEY REALLY DON'T.

EVERY MODEL THAT WE'VE ALL USED TO PREDICT THESE THINGS IS TOTALLY SCRAMBLED.

AGAIN, VICE PRESIDENTS TRADITIONALLY HAVE NOT MADE THAT BIG A DIFFERENCE.

IT DOES SAY SOMETHING ABOUT DECISION MAKING OF THE HEAD OF A TICKET, BUT, OTHERWISE, GENERALLY NOT.

>> Cathy: THIS IS A VERY LIBERAL, PROGRESSIVE TICKET.

AND I'M WONDERING, THEN, DOES IT TURN OFF ANY MODERATE VOTERS OR SPUR ORE PROGRESSIVES TO GET OUT THERE AND VOTE?

>> WELL, DEFINITELY, FOR ANY CAMPAIGN, THEY BOTH NEED TO MOBILIZE THEIR BASE AND WOULD INDEPENDENT -- WOO INDEPENDENT VOTERS.

BUT IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER, THERE ARE FEWER INDEPENDENT VOTERS THAN SORT OF YOUR AVERAGE POLL WOULD HAVE YOU BELIEVE.

A LOT OF POLLS REPORT THAT ABOUT 30% OF THE AMERICAN ELECTORATE IS INDEPENDENT.

BUT THAT'S NOT ACCURATE.

THAT INCLUDES INDEPENDENT LEANERS AND INDIVIDUALS WHO INITIALLY SAY, OH, I'M AN INDEPENDENT, BUT THEN WHEN PRESSED BY POLLSTERS, SAY THAT THEY LEAN TOWARD REPUBLICANS OR LEAN TOWARDS DEMOCRATS.

AND THOSE INDEPENDENT LEANERS ALMOST VOTE IN A PARTISAN WAY OR TYPICALLY VOTE IN A PARTISAN WAY.

SO THE ACTUAL SEGMENT OF THE ELECTORATE THAT IS AN INDEPENDENT IS BOUT 8 TO 10%.

AND THOSE VOTERS ARE THE LEAST ATTENTIVE VOTERS TO POLITICS.

SO THEY MAY NOT EVEN BE TUNING IN QUITE YET.

SO, IT IS IMPORTANT TO WIN OVER INDEPENDENT VOTERS, PARTICULARLY IN SWING STATES, WHERE THEY COULD MAKE THE CRITICAL DIFFERENCE, BUT MOBILIZING THE BASE IS CRITICALLY IMPORTANT.

>> Cathy: BOTH OF YOU TEACH YOUNG PEOPLE, OF COURSE, DOES IT THEN FIRE UP THIS YOUNGER DEMOGRAPHIC THAT HAS NOT BEEN VERY EXCITED TO THIS POINT?

>> I THINK THAT'S WHAT YOU'RE SEEING.

AND I WANT TO BUILD A LITTLE BIT OFF WHAT KATHRYN SAID, BECAUSE I TOTALLY AGREE WITH HER, ONE OF THE PROBLEMS BIDEN HAD IS THAT HE WASN'T -- HE COULDN'T GET THE WAYS.

THE BASE.

THEY WEREN'T COMING ON BOARD, THEY WERE THE ONES SITTING OUT THERE SAYING, YOU KNOW, MAYBE BRAIN WORMS AREN'T SO BAD.

AND I THINK THAT, YOU KNOW, YOUNGER VOTERS RIGHT NOW, THEY SEEM TO BE ENERGIZED MORE THAN THEY HAVE IN THE PAST.

AND I THINK THAT WAS AN ADVANTAGE FOR WALZ IS THAT HE WON THE INTERNET.

>> DEFINITELY.

AND YOUNGER OTERS, TODAY'S SORT OF YOUNG VOTERS SORT OF TREND DEMOCRATIC, BUT THIS IS THE LEAST ENGAGED COHORT IN TERMS OF VOTE TURNOUT.

EVEN CATCHING UP WITH VOTE TURNOUT IS VERY HELPFUL TO THE DEMOCRATS IF IT HAPPENS.

>> Eric: GENDER GAP, IS IT UNUSUALLY LARGE?

TRUMP DOING BETTER WITH MEN?

HARRIS DOING BETTER WITH WOMEN?

>> IT'S LARGE.

THERE'S NO QUESTION ABOUT THAT.

I MEAN, I MEAN, PARTICULARLY ON THE WOMEN'S SIDE.

I MEAN, I THINK MEN HAVE ALWAYS LEANED A LITTLE BIT MORE REPUBLICAN.

>> RIGHT.

THE GENDER GAP FIRST EMERGED IN 1980 WHERE WOMEN ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR DEMOCRATS THAN REPUBLICANS.

AND WE'VE SEEN THAT CONSISTENTLY IN EVERY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION EVER SINCE.

BUT NONETHELESS, IT DOES SEEM AT LEAST POLLS SUGGEST, TO BE SLIGHTLY LARGER.

>> Eric: HOW HAS THAT CHANGED OR IS THAT PRETTY MUCH SET IN STONE FOR NOVEMBER?

CAN THOSE VOTERS BE MOVED SOMEHOW?

>> I THINK SOME VOTERS CAN BE MOVED.

I THINK ONE INTERESTING ISSUE THAT WE HEARD A LOT ABOUT IN 2022 WHERE THERE'S A GENDER GAP IS THE ISSUE OF ABORTION.

AND, YOU KNOW, THERE'S BEEN SO MUCH GOING ON IN THIS CAMPAIGN BUT I SUSPECT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAR MORE ABOUT THAT.

>> Cathy: YOU MENTIONED BRAIN WORMS SO LET'S TALK ABOUT ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. HAS THIS -- ALL THIS MOMENTUM AND JOY AND ENTHUSIASM TAKEN THE STEAM OUT OF HIS ENGINE?

>> I THINK THAT, ONE, HE DOESN'T HAVE ANY MONEY.

THE ONLY MONEY WE CAN HAVE IS TO TRY TO GET ON BALLOTS.

YEAH, I THINK SO.

I MEAN, IT SEEMS LIKE NOW YOU'RE HEARING A LOT OF THE PODCASTERS SAYING, WELL, WE LIKE KENNEDY BETTER NOW.

SO, YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE THINGS I WOULD ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO DO IS NOT PAY TOO MUCH ATTENTION TO POLLS AND OTHER THINGS RIGHT NOW.

BECAUSE THEY'RE ALL VERY VOLATILE.

I MEAN, WE'VE GONE FROM ONE BIG EVENT TO THE NEXT TO THE NEXT.

AND, SO, SURELY AT SOME POINT THERE WILL BE A COOLING-DOWN PERIOD.

>> I THINK THAT'S RIGHT.

THE DEMOCRATS WILL GET SORT OF ANOTHER BUMP AFTER THE DNC, THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION.

SO START TO LOOK AT POLLS SORT OF AFTER LABOR DAY AND LOOK AT POLL AVERAGES NOT ANY ONE POLL BECAUSE, OF COURSE, POLLS ARE SNAPSHOTS IN TIME, NOT ACTUAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS.

>> Eric: WHY IS THE UPPER MIDWEST STILL UP FOR GRABS?

>> YOU KNOW, IT'S JUST A LOT OF IT DEALS WITH HOW WE'RE POLARIZED NOW BETWEEN URBAN, NONURBAN VOTERS.

AND NONURBAN VOTERS TEND TO GO MORE REPUBLICAN.

URBAN TEND TO GO MORE DEMOCRAT.

AND WHEN WE'VE HEARD A LOT ABOUT THE RURAL VOTE, HOW THEY'RE SWINGING SO HARD TO THE RIGHT, BUT, I MEAN, I THINK THAT CONSERVATIVES AND REPUBLICANS HAVE THE SAME PROBLEM WITH URBAN VOTERS AND SUBURBAN VOTERS.

>> Cathy: TRADITIONALLY, BY THE WAY, HOW DO CAMPAIGNS USE THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE AND HOW MIGHT THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN USE WALZ?

>> CERTAINLY AS A SURROGATE TO GO OUT ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.

AND THEN IT'S ALSO INTERESTING TO SEE THIS DYNAMIC OF VANCE AND WALZ SORT OF GOING AFTER ONE ANOTHER.

I MEAN, THAT IS ITS OWN INTERESTING DYNAMIC WITH, OF COURSE, EACH OF THEM HAVING THEIR OWN SORT OF RURAL ROOTS, WITH VERY DIFFERENT POLICY POSITIONS TODAY AND LIFE PATHS.

>> Eric: HOPE YOU'LL CONTINUE TO JOIN US AS THIS TRAIL CONTINUES.

>> ABSOLUTELY.