>> ERIC: LAST NIGHT, PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN AND FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP MET ON STAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2020 FOR THE FIRST OF THIS YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES.

LOT TO TALK ABOUT SO LET'S DIVE RIGHT IN WITH OUR POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSORS.

JOINING US ON THE COUCH TONIGHT: DAVID SCHULTZ TEACHES POLITICS AT HAMLINE UNIVERSITY AND IS AN ADJUNCT LAW PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ST. THOMAS.

FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA, MICHAEL MINTA TEACHES POLITICAL SCIENCE STUDENTS AT THE U OF M. AND WE WELCOME BACK STEVEN SCHIER, PROFESSOR EMERITUS AT CARLETON COLLEGE.

SINCE YOU HAVE THE LONGEST MEMORY, SINCE YOU -- ALL RIGHT?

[ Laughter ] DEMOCRATS INSIDE THE BELTWAY WERE PANICKED, REALLY PANICKED LAST NIGHT.

AND DO THEY HAVE A REASON TO BE?

>> WELL, SURE THEY DO BECAUSE OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE PRESIDENT.

BUT FRANKLY, I THINK DEMOCRATS SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN TERRIBLY SURPRISED BY THIS.

AND I WOULD POINT TO DEAN PHILLIPS WHO HAS BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS PROBLEM FOR MANY, MANY MONTHS.

AND WAS COMPLETELY IGNORED BY THE NATIONAL AND STATE DEMOCRATIC PARTIES.

AND NOW THE PARTY IS PAYING THE PRICE FOR IT.

>> Cathy: THE NORM TIMES HAD AN EDITORIAL, I BET YOU PROBABLY READ IT TODAY ABOUT THE PRESIDENT HOULD SUSPEND HIS CAMPAIGN, BUT I'M GOING TO TO ASSUME THAT TRYING TO SWITCH HORSES HERE MIDSTREAM WOULD BE TOUGH FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

>> TOUGH BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE AND I SAY THAT BECAUSE IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE TIMING AT THIS POINT, WE DON'T HAVE HIM AS THE OFFICIAL NOMINEE YET.

IF HE WERE TO STAY, I'M SUSPENDING THE CAMPAIGN, RELEASE THE DELEGATES, THEY COULD DO SOMETHING.

IT GETS MORE COMPLICATED THE FURTHER WE GET.

IF HE'S GOT THE NOMINATION, AND IT'S BEFORE THE VOTING STARTS, IF HE STEPS DOWN, THE DEMOCRATIC CENTRAL COMMITTEE CAN REPLACE HIM.

BUT ONCE WE START GETTING THE BALLOTING OING, IF SOMETHING WERE TO HAPPEN, THEN WE HAVE ALL KINDS OF PROBLEM AND FOR SOME OF US WHO REMEMBER WHAT HAPPENED MANY, MANY, MANY YEARS AGO WHEN PAUL WELLSTONE DIED AND WE HAD TO REPLACE HIM AT THE LAST SECOND, THERE'S COMPLEXITIES HERE.

BUT THE SIMPLE ANSWER IS, THE DEMOCRATS CAN'T REPLACE HIM BECAUSE THEY DON'T LIKE HIM.

ONCE HE'S GOT THE NOMINATION, HE HAS TO DIE OR WITHDRAW FROM THE CAM PAGE.

PAGE.

CAMPAIGN.

>> AS PROFS, WE LOVE TO TALK IN ABSTRACT AND THEORY.

AND A LOT OF THIS STUFF IS JUST THEORY.

HE'S NOT GOING ANYWHERE.

BIDEN'S THE NOMINEE.

HE HAD A BAD PERFORMANCE.

IF YOU THOUGHT HE WAS GOING TO BEHAVE AND DO WHAT HE DID AT THE DID AT THE STATE OF THE THE UNION, HE DIDN'T.

HE'S A OLDER GUY.

HE DIDN'T HAVE HIS NOTES.

I AM, I CAN BARELY REMEMBER FACTS AND FIGURES, YOU KNOW?

AND I THINK THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTS AND FIGURES THAT BIDEN TRIED TO COME UP WITH THAT TRUMP, HE'S NOT HANDICAPPED BY THAT TYPE OF STUFF.

HE JUST SAYS WHAT HE WANTS TO STAY.

I THINK THE FORMAT N A LOT OF WAYS HELPED HIM.

>> THE FORMAT HELPED TRUMP.

BECAUSE IT MUTED HIM.

HE WASN'T ABLE TO INTERRUPT AND BE AS FIERY AS HE HAS BEEN IN PROOFS DEBATES.

>> Eric: 25TH AMENDMENT HAD ITS OWN HASHTAG ON X, FORMERLY TWITTER TODAY.

IS -- COULD THAT COME INTO PLAY?

>> IT POTENTIALLY COULD COME INTO PLAY IN TERMS OF REMOVING OR SUSPENDING, REMOVING FROM BEING THE PRESIDENT TEMPORARILY.

BECAUSE EITHER HE COULD STEP ASIDE AND SAY FOR MEDICAL REASONS, OR IF HE GETS A VOTE OF THE CABINET TO SAY THAT HE'S NO LONGER HAS THE CAPABILITIES OF PERFORMING THE PRESIDENTDAY.

BUT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT TWO FREQUENT ISSUES HERE.

WE'RE TALKING ABOUT PERFORMANCE OF DUTIES AS PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED TATES VERSUS BEING A ANDIDATE FOR OFFICE.

AND THEY COME UNDER DIFFERENT SETS OF RULES MPLETD AND I WANT TO THROW ONE MORE THING IN HERE.

FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE HAVING A FABTSY ABOUT SAYING, WELL, REPLACE HIM.

THERE'S NO UNIFIED BODY OF LAW.

WE GOT PARTY RULES.

WE GOT SOME FEDERAL RULES.

AND WE'VE GOT 50 DIFFERENT STATE RULES FOR BALLOT ACCESS.

>> Eric: SO THE ODDS ON OF A HARRIS-WALZ TICKET IS PRETTY LONG ODDS.

>> IT'S GOOD TO DISCUSS HERE.

[ Laughter ] >> Cathy: JOE NOTICE THE CNN POLL RIGHT ARREST THAT, RIGHT?

IT WAS 67% IN FAVOR OF SAYING THAT TRUMP DID A GREAT JOB VERSUS 33% SAID THAT BIDEN DID A GREAT JOB.

DON'T YOU THINK THE POLLS HAVE SOME KIND OF POWER IN THE PREDICTING OF MOVEMENT OF VOTERS?

>> WELL, POLLS ARE A LAGGING VARIETIOR.

INDICATOR.

AND I THINK IT'LL TAKE A HILE FOR PEOPLE TO ABSORB THIS.

REMEMBER, THERE ARE A LOT OF OTHER THINGS HAPPENING.

JULY 11TH SENTENCING FOR DONALD TRUMP.

WHAT HAPPENS TO HIM THEN?

REPUBLICAN CONVENTION, DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION.

WE HAVE TWO VERY UNPOPULAR CANDIDATES.

AND WHOEVER IS IN THE SPOTLIGHT IS LOSING.

BECAUSE THEY ARE UNPOPULAR.

AND RIGHT NOW BIDEN IS IN THE SPOTLIGHT.

>> WHAT BIDEN CAN HOPE FOR AT THIS POINT IS THE FACT THAT THE FEW UNDECIDED VOTERS THAT ARE OUT THERE PROBABLY WEREN'T WATCHING IT LAST NIGHT.

HAD BETTER THINGS TO DO THAN WATCH THE DEBATE.

BUT ONE MORE QUICK COMMENT ABOUT THE POLLS HERE.

THE POLLS HAVE BEEN RELEASEDTIVELY -- OR THE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE FOR SIX MONTHS.

YOU KNOW, THAT TRUMP HAS HAD A SLIGHT LEAD, POPULAR VOTE.

SLIGHT LEAD IN ALL THE SWING STATES.

BIDEN NEEDED THIS TO CHANGE THE TRAJECTORY.

IT DIDN'T HAPPEN.

>> I MEAN, DID YOU SEE SOME OF THOSE FOCUS GROUPS THAT THEY DID AFTERWARDS?

AND, YOU KNOW, IT'S LIKE THESE UNDECIDED VOTERS AND MOST OF THE POLITICAL SCIENCE RESEARCH TELLS US THAT MOST PEOPLE AREN'T REALLY -- THEY'RE LEANING ONE WAY OR THE OTHER, RIGHT?

THESE UNDECIDES.

AND SO YOU SEE SOME PEOPLE SAY, OH, I REALLY -- I -- TRUMP'S TAKING AWAY MY REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS AND YOU'RE JUST IKE, WAIT A MINUTE, YOU DON'T SOUND LIKE YOU'RE UNDECIDED.

IF ANYTHING, THAT DEBATE SHOULD HAVE CONFUSED YOU EVEN MORE.

LIKE YOU SAID, I THINK A LOT OF THIS STUFF IS BAKED IN.

I DON'T THINK MANY UNDECIDES ARE GOING TO BE SWAYED BY A PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE.

>> AND IT'S FIVE MONTHS OUT.

A BILLION THINGS CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND NOVEMBER 5TH.

>> Cathy: AND THERE'S A SECOND DEBATE.

>> WE WERE BOTH SAYING THAT DOES TRUMP HAVE AN INCENTIVE TO DO A SECOND DEBATE?

>> I DON'T THINK HE DOES.

>> HE CAN SAY, THIS FELLA CAN'T COPE WITH THE DEBATE SO I'M GOING TO LET HIM OFF THE HOOK.

>> AT THIS POINT, TRUMP HAS NOTHING TO GAIN FROM DOING A SECOND DEBATE AT THIS POINT.

SO MY QUARTER IN MY POCKET WOULD BET ME TO SAY THAT THERE ISN'T A SECOND CAN HE BAIT, EVEN THOUGH BIDEN NEEDS IT.

BUT BIDEN, DOES HE TAKE THE RISK OF A SECOND DEBATE?

>> Eric: IT DIDN'T MOVE THE NEEDLE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP?

>> I DON'T THINK SO.

FIRST OF ALL, WE DON'T KNOW.

THE POLLS WILL COME OUT REALLY SOON.

BUT FROM HISTORICAL EVIDENCE -- I MEAN, THEY USUALLY DON'T MOVE IT AS MUCH AS WE THINK.

>> MORE EXCITED ABOUT DEBATES THAN THE VOTERS-I THINK IN TERMS OF REALITY OF WHAT THEY MEAN.

>> Eric: DO YOU LIKE THE INSTANT ANALYSIS, OR DO YOU THINK IT'S A LOT OF BELTWAY HYPE THAT -- >> HERE'S THE KEY THING.

THE KEY THING IS, HAS A MAJOR DEMOCRATIC ELECTED OFFICIAL ASKED FOR HE PRESIDENT TO STEP DOWN?

THE ANSWER IS NO.

THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF HAIR PULLING ON THE MEDIA ABOUT IT.

BUT UNTIL SOMETHING LIKE THAT HAPPENS, AND IT NEEDS TO HAPPEN SOON, WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK, JOE BIDEN WILL REMAIN THE NO, NOMINEE.

>> Cathy: AS POLITICAL SCIENTISTS AND GIVEN WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT, IS THERE A STILL ROLE FOR DEBATES IN OUR SOCIETY, POLITICAL DEBATES?

I'M JUST CURIOUS.

>> MY FANTASY WORLD, I'D LIKE TO SAY YES.

BUT IN THE REAL WORLD, GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE'S SO MUCH POTENTIAL MEDIA OR SO MUCH N OUT THERE AND HOW POLARIZED WE ARE AT THIS POINT, I MEAN, SOME PEOPLE ARE GOING TO ARGUE AND SAY WE HAVE ZERO UNDECIDED VOTERS IN AMERICA.

I'M JUST NOT SURE HOW INFORMATIVE THOSE DEBATES ARE.

MUCH IN THE SAME WAY THAT CONVENTIONS HAVE BECOME LONG INFOMERCIALS, I THINK THESE DEBATES HAVE JUST BECOME, WHAT, ENTERTAINMENT?

>> WE JUST THINK ABOUT THE THINGS THAT COULD DISQUALIFY SOMEONE, RIGHT?

SO TRUMP WAS CONVICTED.

DIDN'T DISQUALIFY HIM.

HE'S -- HE LIES BOUT A LOT OF DIFFERENT THINGS.

THAT HASN'T DISQUALIFIED HIM.

BUT BIDEN BEING OLD AND NOT REALLY KIND OF FAST AND LOOSE, AND NOT REALLY BEING COHERENT ON SOME OF HIS ANSWERS, THAT'S DISQUALIFYING.

I MEAN, IT REALLY -- SO IT MAKES YOU WONDER, WHAT'S YOUR CRITERIA FOR A PRESIDENTIAL PERSON?

>> Eric: SUPREME COURT MADE IT MORE CHALLENGING TO PROSECUTE JANUARY 6TH DEFENDANTS?

>> YES, WHAT THEY SAID IS THAT THIS IS AN OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE STATUTE.

I ACTUALLY HAVE TAUGHT IT QUITE A FEW TIMES.

AND IT'S BEEN SUBJECT TO SO MANY REVISIONS AND PROBLEMS.

BUT THE COURT IS NOW SAYING IS THAT IN ORDER TO FIND SOMEBODY GUILTY OF OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE, YOU HAVE TO FIND SOME WAY THEY DESTROYED OR ALTERED OR IMPEDED ACCESS TO A DOCUMENT.

IT'S GOING TO MAKE IT HARDER TO GO BACK AND SOME OF THE PEOPLE, GETTING THE CONVICTIONS OVERTURNED, DEPENDING ON HOW THE CHARGES ARE ACTUALLY LAID OUT AND REVISED GOING FORWARD.

>> Eric: HOW'S GOVERNOR WALZ DOING S A SURROGATE?

HEE WAS ON THE NEWS HOUR TONIGHT?

>> HE HAS A CALL PRESENCE WHICH IS ALWAYS GOOD ON TELEVISION.

AND I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE LIKE HIM IN THIS STATE BECAUSE HE SEEMS TO BE A VERY REPRESENTATIVE MINNESOTAN.

IT'S ALWAYS WORKED FOR HIM.

HE'S HAD A JOB APPROVAL ABOVE 50% FOR A LONG TIME.

>> Eric: YOU FEEL LIKE THERE IS NO CHANCE THAT ONE OR THE OTHER WILL NOT BE IN THE NOVEMBER ELECTION?

IN OTHER WORDS, WE'VE GOT BIDEN, TRUMP, AND THAT'S HOW IT'S GOING TO SAY?

>> IT IS BAKED IN THE CAKE I THINK.

>> YEAH, I MEAN, PROVIDED THEY STAY IN GOOD HEALTH, I MEAN, THAT'S NOT A GUARANTEE, YEAH, THAT'LL BE THE MATCHUP.

>> YEAH, I THINK THE SAME THING TOO, IS THAT UNLESS SOMETHING HAPPENS AND GOING TO BE HEALTH RELATED, THIS IS THE FINAL RACE.

>> Eric: THE BELL IS RINGING.

CLASS DISMISSED.