OUR NEXT GROUP OF GUESTS BASED ON FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP'S SENTENCING DATE FOR THE 34 FELONIES IN NEW YORK.

SINCE THEN, A PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE PERFORMANCE HAS THREATENED CURRENT PRESIDENT BIDEN'S RE-ELECTION BID, AND A U.S. SUPREME COURT RULING ON PRESIDENTIAL IMMUNITY HAS LED TO A POSTPONEMENT OF TRUMP'S SENTENCING.

HERE TO HELP US SORT THROUGH ALL OF THIS, A COUCH FULL OF POLITICAL SCIENTISTS.

KATHRYN PEARSON TEACHES STUDENTS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA HERE IN THE TWIN CITIES.

CYNTHIA RUGELEY HEADS UP THE POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA DULUTH.

AND WE WELCOME BACK DAN HOFRENNING WHO TOILS AWAY AT ST. OLAF COLLEGE DOWN IN NORTHFIELD.

WELL, PROFESSOR RUGELEY, PRESIDENT BIDEN IS IN DETROIT ON THIS FRIDAY NIGHT, AND E TELLS A WHIPPED-UP CROWD IN A RALLY, YOU MADE ME THE NOMINEE.

NO ONE ELSE.

NOT THE PRESS.

NOT THE PUNDITS.

NOT THE INSIDERS.

NOT THE DONORS.

YOU, THE VOTERS, DECIDED NO ONE ELSE AND I'M NOT GOING ANYWHERE.

HE'S GOT ALL THE DELEGATES RIGHT THAT HE NEEDS AND PARTY ELDERS DON'T SEEM TO HAVE THE CLOUT TO STOP THEM OR DO THEY?

>> I THINK FOR IT TO BE SUCCESSFUL, HE WOULD LARGELY HAVE TO GET OUT.

I THINK THAT WOULD BE THE BEST PATH FORWARD IF CHANGE WAS MADE, WAS FOR HIM TO VOLUNTARILY WITHDRAW AND THROW HIS WEIGHT BEHIND SOMEONE.

THERE IS A WAY TO DO IT BY HAVING THE DELEGATES NOT VOTE FOR HIM OUT OF GOOD CONSCIENCE, IS THAT THE RIGHT WORD, GOOD ONSCIENCE, BUT, YOU KNOW, IT WOULD BE MESSY.

>> IT DOES TELL YOU A LOT ABOUT THE UNIQUE NATURE OF AMERICAN POLITICS, AND MOST PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACIES, THE PRIME MINISTER OR CHANCELLOR IS CHOSEN BY THE PARLIAMENT ITSELF.

THERE ISN'T A SERIES OF 50 PRIMARIES OR 40 PRIMARIES THAT SELECT DELEGATES, THAT GO TO A CONVENTION.

SO BIDEN IS LARGELY RIGHT.

THE POWER IS WITH WHAT POLITICAL SCIENTISTS CALL THE PARTY AND THE ELECTORATE, THE VOTERS.

>> Cathy: OKAY.

>> RIGHT, NOT PARTY LEADERS.

BUT THIS IS AN ABSOLUTE DISASTER FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

I MEAN, THE POLLS SINCE THE DEBATE REVEAL THAT IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR PRESIDENT BIDEN TO WIN RE-ELECTION AT THIS POINT.

AND THERE'S NO REASON TO THINK THAT THINGS ARE NECESSARILY GOING TO IMPROVE AFTER A MIXED PERFORMANCE LAST NIGHT.

AND YOU CAN SEE, MEMBERS OF CONGRESS, THERE ARE A SEGMENT OF CURRENT MEMBERS OF CONGRESS, WHO HAVE COME OUT AND SAID, WE STILL SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT, PARTICULARLY CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS MEMBERS, AFTER HE MET WITH THEM EARLIER IN THE WEEK, BUT YOU SEE MANY DEMOCRATS, ESPECIALLY THOSE IN SWING STATES COMING OUT AND ASKING THE PRESIDENT TO STEP ASIDE AND THEN JUST SILENCE OR SORT OF STRANGE STATEMENTS FROM LEADERS, LIKE THE SPEAKER'S LETTER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH JUST SORT OF UPDATED HIS COLLEAGUES THAT HE MET WITH THE PRESIDENT.

BUT NOT ITERATING SUPPORT FOR HIM.

SO IT IS REALLY TOUGH SITUATION FOR DEMOCRATS.

IT WOULD BE EASIEST, THOUGH STILL CERTAINLY NOT EASY, IF THE PRESIDENT STEPPED ASIDE AND THE VICE PRESIDENT RAN.

BUT THAT, YOU KNOW, THERE'S SOME PARTY UNITY ISSUES THERE, TOO.

IT'S VERY COMPLICATED.

>> Eric: HOW DO REPUBLICANS PLAY IN?

>> WELL, I THINK DONALD TRUMP IS POSTPONING HIS VICE PRESIDENTIAL SELECTION.

I THINK THEY'RE DELIGHTING.

HAVEN'T HEARD PROBABLY THE FIRST WEEK IN ABOUT EIGHT YEARS YOU HAVEN'T HEARD FROM DONALD TRUMP, THEY'RE LARGELY LETTING THE EMOCRATS STEW IN THE CONFLICT.

>> Eric: WAS THIS A MEDIA COVER-UP?

BIDEN'S STAFF WITHHELD ALL THIS DETAIL.

WHY WASN'T HIS SURFACED EARLIER OR WAS IT?

>> WELL, I THINK THERE'S ALWAYS EEN SUSPICIONS, YOU KNOW, YOU LOOK AT POLLING, I MEAN, THE GENERAL PUBLIC THOUGHT HE WAS TOO OLD.

YOU KNOW?

I MEAN, THAT WAS THE REASON WHY, YOU KNOW, REPRESENTATIVE PHILLIPS GOT IN THE RACE, HE THOUGHT HE COULDN'T WIN.

>> Eric: DESERVES AN APOLOGY, MAYBE.

>> YOU KNOW, THERE'S AN INTERESTING THING THAW BRING UP.

IT CERTAINLY SHOWS THAT THE DEMOCRATS TWO YEARS AGO SHOULD HAVE HAD MORE VOICES IN THE ROOM, I THINK THAT'S WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO.

>> OH, ABSOLUTELY.

THE 2022 MIDTERMS, YOU KNOW, DEMOCRATS WERE MORE SUCCESSFUL THAN ANTICIPATED.

YOU KNOW, STILL REPUBLICANS TOOK THE HOUSE, MORE SUCCESSFUL THAN ANTICIPATED.

AND AT THAT POINT PRESIDENT BIDEN SORT OF WENT BACK ON HIS WORD THAT HE WOULD BE A TRANSITIONAL FIGURE AND DECIDED TO RUN AGAIN.

AND OTHER THAN, YOU KNOW, SORT OF A THIRD-TERM MEMBER OF CONGRESS FOR MINNESOTA, DEAN FELLOWSHIPS I ALSO REALLY -- PHILLIPS DID NOT FACE OPPOSITION FROM SENATORS, GOVERNORS, WHO COULD HAVE DEFEATED HIM.

IF DEMOCRATS COULD URN BACK THE CLOCK, I'M SURE THEY WOULD BUT THEY CAN'T.

NOW THERE'S A REAL PROBLEM.

>> WILL ALTHOUGH THEY ALWAYS KNEW HE WAS SOMEWHAT INARTICULATE BUT NOT THAT INARTICULATE AS HE WAS IN THE DEBATE.

I SUPPOSE TURNING DOWN THE SUPER BOWL INTERVIEW I THOUGHT WAS A REAL SIGN THAT YOU WOULD TURN DOWN THAT BIG AN AUDIENCE.

>> I DON'T THINK THE PRESS COVERED IT UP.

I MEAN, THEY WOULDN'T DO THAT, IT'S TOO GOOD A STORY.

BUT I DO THINK THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE ERE VERY SUSPICIOUS FOR A LONG TIME.

I MEAN, THE SUPER BOWL INTERVIEWS ARE A GOOD EXAMPLE.

AND, YOU KNOW, EVERYBODY BOLTED ON THE THING, YOU KNOW, JUST OUTRAGE, AND THEY SHOULD HAVE BEEN.

IT'S NOT THE THING THAT SHOULD BE IN A SPECIAL COUNCIL'S REPORT.

EVERYBODY GOES OH, NO, NO, NO, NO.

THERE'S PLENTY OF EVIDENCE THAT PERHAPS -- HE GUY NEVER HAD A PRESS CONFERENCE WHICH CERTAINLY RAISED A BUNCH OF EYEBROWS.

SO, I MEAN, WHEN IT HAPPENED AT THE DEBATE, I MEAN, I WAS STUNNED, I WATCHED IT FOR ABOUT THE FIRST TEN MINUTES GOING, OH, MY LORD.

>> Eric: WHO WINS IN THE SECOND -- WHO LIVES IN THE SECOND DISTRICT?

>> I DON'T LIVE THERE ANYMORE BUT THE CARLETON COLLEGE IS THERE.

SHE'S IN A SWING DISTRICT, IN A TOUGH RACE, AND IT PROBABLY DOES HELP HER POLITICALLY.

>> OH, ABSOLUTELY.

EVERY DEMOCRAT, WHETHER THEY'RE RUNNING FOR THE SENATE, THE HOUSE IN A GOVERNOR'S RACE IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE PRESIDENT BEING A DRAG ON THE TICKET.

YOU THINK ABOUT, YOU KNOW, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS SHOULD HAVE COATTAILS AND GIVE A BUMP.

BUT IT'S THE OPPOSITE SITUATION NOW.

I MEAN, OOK AT MINNESOTA, THE WELL-RESPECTED COOK POLITICAL REPORT DOWNGRADED MINNESOTA FROM A LIKELY DEMOCRATIC STATE TO A LEANS DEMOCRATIC STATE AFTER THE DEBATE.

>> Cathy: SO SO MUCH ENERGY IS GOING TO BE SPENT NOW, UNLESS THERE'S A DECISION SOON, ON EACH MISSTEP, EACH MISSTATEMENT THAT THE PRESIDENT WOULD MAKE.

>> RIGHT.

>> YES, AND THAT'S TIME THAT DEMOCRATS AREN'T SPENDING TALKING ABOUT SORT OF FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP'S FAULTS.

>> Eric: WHAT IS THE SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM SITUATION HERE?

IT'S EARLY IN THE YEAR.

THE CONVENTIONS HAVEN'T HAPPENED YET.

IS THERE ENOUGH TIME FOR THIS THING TO GET EVEN MORE CRAZY OR SETTLE DOWN OR WHAT'S THE PROGNOSIS HERE?

>> I THINK THEY'VE GOT TWO WEEKS.

I MEAN, I THINK THAT -- I MEAN, OHIO'S BALLOT COMES UP PRETTY SOON.

I MEAN, OHIO'S NOT GOING TO SAY, OKAY, WE'RE GOING TO LET YOU REPLACE.

>> Eric: THERE'S GOING TO BE THE EARLY ROLL CALL, RIGHT?

>> THERE'S SOME DISCUSSION, BIDEN COULD DROP OUT AFTER THE CONVENTION, SOME DISCUSSION ON THE ROLE OF TIM WALZ AS CHAIR OF THE GOVERNOR'S ASSOCIATION.

HE WOULD BE CONSULTED.

>> THINK IF HE DROPS OUT AFTER THE CONVENTION, I THINK THEY'RE OING TO BE ONE LAWSUIT AFTER ANOTHER AND THE SUPREME COURT IS SO UNPREDICTABLE, YOU KNOW, I DON'T THINK THEY WANT THAT.

>> Eric: IS A SMOKE-FILLED BACK ROOM NEEDED HERE?

HAVEN'T HAD ONE SINCE '68.

[ Laughter ] >> WELL, AND, AGAIN, THE ENTIRE PROCESS WAS REFORMED AFTER 1968.

SO STARTING IN 1972, DEMOCRATS CHOOSE THEIR DELEGATES IN PRIMARIES, SOME CAUCUSES.

AND, SO, THAT'S THE PROBLEM HERE, IS THE SMOKE-FILLED ROOMS HAVE NO POWER.

YOU KNOW, PARTISANSHIP IN THE ELECTORATE, AS WETDZ EARLIER, IS EXTREMELY STRONG BUT DELEGATES AND PARTY OFFICIALS ACTUALLY HAVE VERY LITTLE POWER.

THE EASIEST THING FOR DEMOCRATS GRAPPLING WITH THIS WOULD BE FOR THE PRESIDENT TO STEP ASIDE.

ABSENT, THAT I THINK, YOU KNOW, WE'LL SORT OF NAVIGATE THE NEXT WEEKS.

>> THIS IS A TEST TO SEE HOW MUCH POWER THE SMOKE-FILLED ROOM MIGHT STILL HAVE, BECAUSE THEY'RE SMOKING HARD, I'M SURE.

>> I THINK THEY'RE SMOKING HARD IN THE BACK ROOMS NOW.

I MEAN, NANCY PELOSI DOESN'T RANDY LOMB SAY, 'M -- RANDOMLY SAY, I'M GOING TO GO ON MORNING JOE AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

>> Eric: OBAMA AND BIDEN HAVE A PRETTY COOL RELATIONSHIP, RIGHT?

>> PRESIDENT OBAMA DISCOURAGED HIS VICE PRESIDENTS, THEN JOE BIDEN FROM UNNING.

HE IS PROBABLY NOT THE PERSON TO URGE HIM.

>> Cathy: MONEY DOES TALK, THOUGH.

WHAT ABOUT THE ROLE OF BIG DONORS?

YOU MENTIONED THERE'S SMOKE-FILLED BACK ROOMS, AND THERE'S PROBABLY SMOKING IN THE BACK ROOMS RIGHT NOW.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE DONORS?

>> THEY SEEM TO BE COOLING A BIT, ALTHOUGH, I DON'T THINK WHOEVER RUNS, THE DEMOCRATS ARE NOT GOING TO HAVE A MONEY PROBLEM, IN MY OPINION.

>> Eric: REPUBLICAN CONVENTION IN MILWAUKEE.

THEIR PLALT FORM HAS BEEN -- PLATFORM HAS BEEN WATERED DOWN, MAYBE SOME OF THE SHARP EDGES HAVE BEEN SANDED DOWN.

BUT THIS PROJECT 2025.

IS THAT THE NEW DEMOCRATIC HOOK?

>> YEAH, IT IS.

AND, I MEAN, I KNOW THAT TRUMP IS TRYING TO RUN FROM IT.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE.

YOU KNOW, THAT'S ONE OF THE THINGS, CAN BIDEN ARTICULATE THAT?

I MEAN, I THINK HE'S TRYING TO RUN FROM IT.

BUT, YOU KNOW, IF YOU LOOK ON TRUMP'S WEBPAGE, HE HAS SOMETHING CALLED AGENDA 47, WHICH IS NOT TERRIBLY DIFFERENT FROM '25.

>> RIGHT.

BUT PROJECT 2025, T'S REALLY SORT OF INCREDIBLE.

SO THIS IS A 900-PAGE DOCUMENT WRITTEN BY THE CONSERVATIVE THINK TANK, THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION IN WASHINGTON, D.C., WITH, CCORDING TO CNN, OVER 100 PEOPLE FROM THE FORMER TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, EVEN AS FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP IS BACKING AWAY FROM IT.

SO IT IS BOTH A POLICY MANIFESTO AND SORT OF A HOW TO GOVERN DOCTRINE, WHICH COVERS EVERYTHING FROM SOCIAL POLICY TO ECONOMIC POLICY TO SORT OF THE SIZE AND SCOPE OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND DISBANDING SOME IVIL SERVICE.

AND, SO, IT REALLY IS -- IT'S BEEN AROUND FOR A WHILE, BUT IT'S JUST RECENTLY GONE VIRAL AND DEMOCRATS ARE REALLY HOPING TO USE THIS AGAINST REPUBLICANS.

>> ND NOTEWORTHY THAT TRUMP IS DISTANCING HIMSELF FROM THAT.

AND THE REPUBLICAN PLATFORM IS MOVING TO THE CENTER A LITTLE BIT ON ABORTION, REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH, GAY RIGHTS, SOCIAL SECURITY.

>> I DON'T KNOW, ON THE ABORTION THING, I'M WATCHING THAT JUST BECAUSE I FIND IT INTERESTING THAT -- I MEAN, THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO REALLY FIRMLY BELIEVE THAT ABORTION IS MURDER.

AND THEY VOTED FOR TRUMP.

I MEAN, A LOT OF IT, THEY -- IT WAS TRANSACTIONAL, REALLY, THEY KNEW.

IT WAS A MEAN TO AN END.

NOW HE'S BACKING OFF ON WHAT THEY WANT.

I'M KIND OF CURIOUS TO HOW THEY'RE GOING TO RESPOND TO THAT.

IT'S A VERY SINCERE BELIEF.

I MEAN, THE PRO ABORTION MOVEMENT'S ALWAYS KIND OF TOLERATED AND RESPECTED IT A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, IT'S SINCERE.

>> Cathy: I WONDER, DO THEY SIT ON THE SIDELINES?

>> YOU SAW IT IN THE REPUBLICAN PLATFORM DISCUSSION THAT TONY PERKINS, HEAD OF THE FAMILY RESEARCH COUNCIL, AND RALPH REED, PAT ROBERTSON'S FORMER KIND OF RIGHT-HAND MAN, THEY BOTH CRITICIZED THE REPUBLICAN PLATFORM.

>> Eric: OF COURSE, THE ALL-PURPOSE STATEMENT IS, WHERE ARE THEY GOING TO GO?

>> RIGHT.

>> RIGHT.

>> THE ELECTORATE -- THE MORE THE ELECTORATE IS