>> ERIC: WHILE PRESIDENT BIDEN WAS MAKING HIS SURPRISE VISIT TO UKRAINE ON THE WAY TO POLAND, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN ANNOUNCED HIS COUNTRY WILL "SUSPEND" PARTICIPATION IN THE NEW START NUCLEAR ACCORD.

BACK HERE IN THE U.S., THE JANUARY 6TH INSURRECTION CONTINUES TO MAKE NEWS.

REPUBLICAN HOUSE SPEAKER KEVIN MCCARTHY IS GIVING FOX NEWS ACCESS TO CAPITOL SECURITY TAPES FROM THAT DAY.

AND THE SPECIAL COUNSEL INVESTIGATING FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS SUBPOENAED HIS DAUGHTER IVANKA AND SON-IN-LAW JAROD KUSHNER.

LOT OF NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL NEWS FOR OUR ESTEEMED GROUP OF POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSORS TO PONDER.

DAVID SCHULTZ IS DOING DOUBLE DUTY FOR US TONIGHT.

WHEN HE'S NOT TEACHING OVERSEAS, HE TOILS AWAY AT HAMLINE UNIVERSITY.

KATHRYN PEARSON INSTRUCTS POLITICAL SCIENCE STUDENTS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA.

AND JOINING US FROM DULUTH, CINDY RUGELEY, WHO HEADS UP THE POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT AT UMD.

PROFESSOR PEARSON, TRAIN DERAILMENT, NORTHEASTERN OHIO HAS BECOME POLITICAL.

>> IT HAS BECOME VERY POLITICAL.

>> Eric: EXPLAIN.

>> WELL, IT HAPPENED FEBRUARY 3rd AND, SO, THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF CRITICISM OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION FOR NOT RESPONDING QUICKLY ENOUGH.

THE TRANSPORTATION SECRETARY PETE BEAUTY JUDGE ONLY RECENTLY WENT.

BUTTIGIEG.

THE NTSB SAID LET'S NOT MAKE THIS POLITICAL.

THIS ACCIDENT COULD HAVE BEEN PREVENTED AND LET'S WORK TO PREVENT IT.

FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, DEMOCRATS' PART, THEY'RE POINTING TO DEREGULATION IN CONGRESS THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNED DURING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND THEN THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IS BEING CRITICIZED FOR NOT SHOWING UP THERE.

SO THERE IS A LOT OF POLITICS GOING ON WHEN WHAT THE PEOPLE REALLY NEED IS A SOLUTION.

>> Cathy: AND PRESIDENT TRUMP SHOWED UP.

>> YES.

>> Cathy: TO THE SITE.

>> Eric: AND HE'S COMING BACK WEDNESDAY, I GUESS, WITH PALLETS OF WATER AND SUPPLIES.

>> YES, HE IS.

IT HAS BECOME, UNFORTUNATELY, POLITICIZED.

AND WHAT WE'RE NOT REALLY GETTING IS A REALLY GOOD DISCUSSION OR INVESTIGATION ABOUT THE CAUSES, WHETHER OR NOT THE DEREGULATION IS AN ISSUE.

AND REALLY, I THINK, MORE IMPORTANTLY, HOW DO WE GO FORWARD AND ENSURE THAT WE DON'T HAVE FUTURE ACCIDENTS LIKE THIS?

RIGHT NOW IT'S JUST LIKE, IT'S A BLAME GAME.

LIKE EVERYTHING ELSE IN AMERICAN POLITICS, IT'S, WHAT, IT'S JUST THE POLARIZATION AND THE BLAME GAME RIGHT NOW, UNFORTUNATELY.

>> Cathy: PROFESSOR RUGELEY, WHAT DO YOU THINK?

>> I KIND OF GREE.

I KNOW THE EPA CAME OUT, OR SOME INDEPENDENT GROUP, CAME OUT AND SAID THAT SOME OF THE CHEMICALS IN THE AIR COULD CAUSE LONG-TERM EFFECTS.

AND I THINK IT'S ALL GOTTEN WRAPPED UP IN POLITICS.

IT WAS A GOOD MOVE BY TRUMP TO GO THERE, PARTICULARLY AFTER THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION WAS A LITTLE SLOW OFF THE GUN.

AND, SO, YEAH, I THINK IT HAS TURNED POLITICAL AND I THINK IT'S KIND OF A REFLECTION OF OUR SOCIETY, OUR POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT TODAY.

>> Cathy: KATHRYN PEARSON, LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS INTERESTING SITUATION WITH SPEAKER McCARTHY SHARING THE SECURITY TAPES OF JANUARY 6th WITH FOX NEWS.

>> RIGHT.

AND TUCKER CARLSON -- >> Cathy: EXACTLY.

>> -- QUITE TROUBLING GIVEN THAT A LOT OF SECURE INFORMATION IS CONTAINED ON THOSE TAPES.

AND, OF COURSE, THERE'S THE CONCERN THAT SOMETHING LIKE THIS COULD HAPPEN AGAIN AND THAT THE INNER HALLWAYS AND BASEMENTS AND THE CAPITOL, WHICH, YOU KNOW, ARE THERE FOR MEMBERS' SAFETY FOR INSTANCES LIKE THIS, COULD BE REVEALED TO AN AUDIENCE WHO PERHAPS HAS NEFARIOUS GOALS.

>> Cathy: WHAT IS BEHIND THIS, DO WE KNOW?

>> I THINK, I MEAN, SPEAKER McCARTHY IS REALLY TRYING TO SHORE UP HIS CONSERVATIVE CREDENTIALS.

BUT THIS IS A TROUBLING WAY TO DO THAT.

>> Eric: PROFESSOR RUGELEY, PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS GONE UP A LITTLE BIT IN THE POLLS SINCE THE STATE OF THE UNION SPEECH.

AS HE BEGINS THE CYCLE NOW FOR 2024, WHERE IS HE VIA VIEW HIS -- VIS-A-VIS HIS RE-ELECTION?

>> YOU KNOW, I THINK THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE, DEMOCRATS -- WELL, DEMOCRATS WHO DON'T WANT HIM TO RUN AGAIN.

AND I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE VERY MUCH CONCERNED THAT HIS AGE COULD BE A FACTOR.

AND THAT, YOU KNOW, THEY'D HATE TO HAVE SOMEBODY DIE IN OFFICE, TO BE BLUNT.

AND, SO, I THINK THAT PEOPLE LIKE HIM, BUT I DON'T THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE WANT HIM TO RUN AGAIN, ARE VERY MUCH CONCERNED ABOUT HIM RUNNING AGAIN.

I THINK THAT IF HE MAKES THE DECISION TO RUN AGAIN, HE'LL BE THE ONLY DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE.

SO, THAT'S WHAT IT'S SHAPING UP TO BE RIGHT NOW.

>> A COUPLE THINGS.

FIRST OFF, I THINK THE AMERICAN PUBLIC, I THINK ABOUT 60% OF THE AMERICAN PUBLIC IS SAYING, THEY'RE NOT PARTICULARLY THRILLED ABOUT A TRUMP/BIDEN REMATCH AT THIS POINT.

BUT GUESS WHAT?

WITHIN REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC PARTIES, TRUMP AND BIDEN ARE PROBABLY THE STRONGEST CANDIDATES BECAUSE EVEN THOUGH THERE'S ERODING SUPPORT FOR TRUMP, HE PROBABLY STILL CONTROLS ABOUT 30 OR 40% OF THE BASE AT THIS POINT.

AND WITH THE DIVIDED PARTY, LET'S SAY DESANTIS, HALEY, HE'S STILL IN THE BEST POSITION, AND BIDEN AT THIS POINT, IF HE DOESN'T RUN, THE DEMOCRATS HAVE NO CLEAR CANDIDATE.

I MEAN, MAYBE YOU HAVE GRETCHEN WID MERE IN MICHIGAN OR A COUPLE OTHER PEOPLE.

BUT HE CLEARLY HAS A LOCK IF HE WANTS IT.

>> Cathy: PROFESSOR PEARSON, WHAT DO YOU THINK?

>> WELL, I THINK THAT'S RIGHT.

AND, SO, THE BIGGER THE FIELD IS, THE BETTER THINGS ARE FOR THE FORMER PRESIDENT.

IF IT'S UST A DESANTIS AND HALEY VERSUS TRUMP COMPETITION, IT COULD BECOME WINNOWED AND IT BECOME A TWO-PERSON RACE WHERE TRUMP WOULDN'T GET THE NOMINATION.

BUT IF IT'S A BIG REPUBLICAN FIELD, LIKE 2016, THAT, OF COURSE, ADVANTAGES FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP.

AND I THINK THAT DEMOCRATS ARE CONCERNED, IN ANY DIRECTION, THEY'RE CONCERNED ABOUT BIDEN'S AGE, BUT THEY'RE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT IS THERE A CANDIDATE WHO COULD WIN IN 2024?

>> I WANT TO THROW ONE QUICK THING IN HERE ALSO.

LOOK TO SEE IF TRUMP DOESN'T LOOK LIKE HE CAN GET THE NOMINATION, LOOK TO SEE LATER THIS YEAR, HE'LL MOVE FOR A THIRD-PARTY CANDIDACY.

THE ODDS ARE AGAINST HIM, BUT I CAN SEE HIM WANTING TO DO THAT.

>> Cathy: EXPLAIN TO US, IF YOU WOULD, WISCONSIN IS GETTING SOME LOVE HERE FROM THE GOP.

EVIDENTLY, THE FIRST GOP DEBATE IS GOING TO BE IN MILWAUKEE.

AND THEY'VE LANDED THE GOP CONVENTION.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

>> ONE OF THREE STRENGTHS -- ONE OF THREE SWING STATES, PARDON ME, THREE SWING STATES THAT ARE PROBABLY GOING TO DECIDE THE ELECTION AT SOME POINT.

IT'S BEEN VERY CLOSE THE LAST TWO ELECTIONS THERE.

THE WORLD REVOLVES AROUND WISCONSIN, I HINK.

>> Eric: PROFESSOR RUGELEY, ONE OF THE THEORIES, NEW THEORY I HEARD IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN '24 IS THAT GOVERNOR DESANTIS AND PRESIDENT TRUMP KIND OF DESTROY IT EACH OTHER ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL, LEAVING AN OPENING FOR NIKKI HALEY OR SENATOR TIM SCOTT OR SOMEBODY LIKE THAT.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

>> WELL, I THINK A CANDIDATE LIKE TIM SCOTT MIGHT STAND A CHANCE.

YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE THINGS ABOUT TRUMP IS IF HE'S NOT GOING TO BE THE NOMINEE, HE'S GOING TO MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO BLOW UP WHOEVER IS.

AND, SO, YOU KNOW, CAN A THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATE WIN?

NO.

BUT CAN HE TORCH THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE?

CAN IT TORCH THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE?

IT MOST CERTAINLY CAN.

I THINK THAT'S ONE OF THE THREATS OF TRUMP.

AND, YOU KNOW, ALSO, IS DESANTIS, DOES HE HAVE THE HIDE TO REALLY STAND UP TO TRUMP?

BUT I THINK THAT, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE THINKING, WELL, MAYBE THEY'LL GO AFTER EACH OTHER AND IT WILL SERVE AS A BLOCKING BACK OR ONE OF US.

I JUST THINK IT WOULD BE TOUGH FOR ANY OTHER CANDIDATE BESIDES ONE OF THOSE TWO.

- I MEAN, I THINK THAT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY NOW IS, CURRENTLY IS THE PARTY OF TRUMP.

A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE SAYING THEY'RE TIRED OF THE CHAOS AND EVERYTHING.

BUT HE DOES HAVE A STRONG BASE OF SUPPORT.

>> Eric: KATHRYN PEARSON, DURING THE STATE OF THE UNION SPEECH, THE MARQUEE MOMENT WAS WHEN THE SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE OFF THE TABLE.

BUT, REALLY, ISN'T SOMETHING GOING TO HAVE TO BE DONE, DESPITE THIS HANDS-OFF BUSINESS?

>> WELL, IF WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A COMPROMISE THAT INVOLVES SPENDING CUTS TO RAISE THE DEBT LIMIT AND WE TAKE SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE OFF THE TABLE, THAT'S A LOT -- AND DEFENSE IS OFF THE TABLE, THAT'S A LOT OF CUTS.

DISCRETIONARY DOMESTIC SPENDING.

AND, SO, I THINK THAT PRESIDENT BIDEN REALLY, HE WAS SORT OF MASTERFUL IN PUTTING REPUBLICANS ON THE RECORD BY HAVING THEM STANDING UP AND APPLAUDING, YOU KNOW, NO CUTS TO SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE.

BUT THAT'S GOING TO MEAN A LOT OF DOMESTIC DISCRETIONARY SPENDING CUTS PROPOSED BY REPUBLICANS.

>> Eric: WHEN DOES THE DEBT CEILING BECOME A CRISIS?

>> DEPENDS ON WHETHER YOU'RE LOOKING AT YOUR RETIREMENT PORTFOLIO RIGHT NOW OR NOT.

FOR MANY PEOPLE, IT'S ALREADY A CRISIS.

I SUSPECT IN THE NEXT -- WE STILL PROBABLY HAVE A COUPLE OF MONTHS TO GO, BUT THE CLOSER AND CLOSER WE GET TO THAT DATE, AND I'VE SEEN SEVERAL DATES, I'VE SEEN MAY, I'VE SEEN JULY, ET CETERA, ET CETERA.

IT ALREADY IS A PROBLEM RIGHT NOW.

AND IT'S ALREADY HAVING JITTERS ON WALL STREET WITH A LOT OF STOCK INVESTORS AT THIS POINT, BUT IT'S REALLY A BIGGER PROBLEM, I THINK, A COUPLE MORE MONTHS DOWN THE LINE.

>> Cathy: SEE, I THOUGHT IT WAS REALLY INTERESTING TO SEE FORMER PRESIDENT CARTER, THAT TAPE THAT WE HAD EARLIER IN THE PROGRAM WHEN HE WAS ON "ALMANAC," AND, CLEARLY, THE PRESIDENT'S STILL WITH US, BUT HE'S IN HOSPICE, HOW DO YOU THINK HE DOES RANK WHEN YOU LOOK AT ALL THE PRESIDENTS?

I MEAN, HOW DOES HE -- WHAT WILL HIS LEGACY BE?

>> WELL, HIS LEGACY WILL REALLY BE CENTERED AROUND WHAT AN AMAZING POST-PRESIDENT HE WAS.

FORMING THE CARTER CENTER, HIS EFFORTS FOR PEACE, HIS EFFORTS AT COMBATTING DISEASE WORLDWIDE, HIS BIPARTISAN COOPERATION, JUST SORT OF THE WAY THAT HE AND ROSILYN CARTER WENT BACK TO PLAINS, GEORGIA, AND TAUGHT SUNDAY SCHOOL, BEING PILLARS OF THEIR COMMUNITY AND NOT A PARTISAN PERSON WHO WANTED TO CASH IN AND MAKE A LOT OF MONEY.

SO DEFINITELY HIS POST-PRESIDENT LEGACY IS VERY VERY STRONG.

HE WAS NOT A PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE PRESIDENT.

OF COURSE, THE HOSTAGE CRISIS, HE WAS CHALLENGED FROM WITHIN HIS OWN PARTY BY FORMER SENATOR TED KENNEDY.

AND, SO, A LOT OF DEMOCRATS WERE VERY DISSATISFIED WITH HIM AS A PRESIDENT AND, OF COURSE, HE LOST RESOUNDINGLY.

>> Eric: YES OR NO, IS THERE A REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE THAT'S GOING TO TAKE ON AMY KLOBUCHAR IN '24?

>> NOT ONE THAT'S VIABLE AT THIS POINT.

THE REPUBLICANS WILL THROW SOMEBODY UP.

BUT AT THIS POINT, THE REPUBLICANS REALLY DON'T HAVE A GOOD STATEWIDE BASE OR A GOOD STATEWIDE CANDIDATE THAT THEY CAN REALLY SORT OF BRING OUT FROM, LET'S SAY, THE JUNIOR VARSITY TO RUN AT THE VARSITY LEVEL.

>> Eric: THANK YOU, PROFESSOR RUGELEY, THANK YOU, KATHRYN PEARSON, DAVID SCHULTZ.

>> Cathy: THANKS FOR DOUBLE DUTY, BY THE WAY.

>> MY PLEASURE.

>> Cathy: THANK YOU.

>> Eric: TAKE US HOME, C. >> CATHY: WE'VE RUN A BIT LONG TONIGHT SO WE'LL HAVE A NEW HISTORY QUESTION FOR YOU NEXT WEEK.

PROMISE.

UNTIL THEN, WE HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME FOR A LITTLE SHOW-CLOSING MUSIC TO SEND YOU ON YOUR WAY.

IT WAS THIS WEEK BACK IN 1999 THAT PETER HIMMELMAN APPEARED ON THE OLD NEWSNIGHT MINNESOTA PROGRAM AND PLAYED A TUNE FOR US ON THE OLD PETROF.

PIANO.

TAKE A LISTEN TO "GRAVITY CAN'T KEEP MY SPIRIT DOWN" AND WE'LL SEE YOU NEXT WEEK.

♪ IT'S A FRIDAY MORNING, COLD AND GRAY ♪ THIS TIME OF YEAR, I LIKE IT THAT WAY, DO YOU ♪ ♪ I LOOK IN THE MIRROR AND THE MAN I SEE ♪ ♪ SO FAR FROM WHAT I DREAMED HE'D BE FOR YOU ♪ ♪ HOW DID I SINK TO THE BOTTOM OF THE JAR ♪ ♪ BURNED OUT AND FROZEN LIKE THE LIGHT FROM A DISTANT STAR ♪ I'M