THAT'S IT FOR US.

WE'RE GOING TO THROW IT BACK UP TO THE STAGE ONE MORE TIME.

>> YES.

>> WITH THAT, PLEASE, ONE MORE TIME, A BIG ROUND OF APPLAUSE, CATHY AND ERIC UP ON THE STAGE.

SHELLETA BRUNDIDGE, EVERYBODY.

>> Cathy: THANK YOU.

YOU TWO ARE AMAZING.

TANE DANGER AND SHELLETA BRUNDIDGE.

WE'RE LIVE AT THE MINNESOTA STATE FAIR, I'M CATHY WURZER.

WE HAVE ONE MORE POLITICAL CONVERSATION FOR YOU.

BY HISTORY, OF COURSE, WHEN WE DO THE CONVERSATIONS, THE POLITICAL SCIENTISTS PAGES THAT WE HAVE ARE ALWAYS THE MOST POPULAR SO WE HAVE TWO OF OUR FAVORITES WITH US.

WE'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT DEBATES, INDICTMENTS, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES NEAR AND FAR.

WE HAVE A DUO OF POLITICAL SCIENTISTS WITH US.

KATHRYN PEARSON IS A POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA.

HERE TOO IS LARRY JACOBS.

HE HEADS THE CENTER FOR POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE, PART OF THE HUMPHREY SCHOOL AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA.

HERE WE ARE BACK AT THE FAIR.

GOSH, WHAT SHOULD WE TALK ABOUT?

LET'S SEE.

PROFESSOR PEARSON, I DON'T KNOW, WHAT DO YOU MAKE -- PUT IT INTO SOME HISTORICAL CONTEXT HERE.

FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS A MUG SHOT OUT THERE, HE WAS INDICTED.

WHAT DO YOU WANT TO SAY ABOUT THIS?

>> WELL, IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO PUT IT INTO HISTORICAL CONTEXT BECAUSE THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED.

BUT CLEARLY HE CHOSE THE TIME, HE WANTED THAT MUG SHOT OUT THERE, HE'LL USE IT TO ACTIVATE THE REPUBLICAN BASE, FUNDRAISE.

EVERY OTHER INDICTMENT SORT OF CHARGED SO FAR HE'S BEEN PRETTY RESILIENT TO IN TERMS OF MAINTAINING HIS POPULARITY AMONG A SEGMENTS OF THE REPUBLICAN BASE AND I THINK THAT WAS FURTHER REINFORCED BY THE FACT THAT HE DIDN'T SHOW UP AT THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATING CONTEST DEBATES AND DIDN'T REALLY NEED TO.

>> Eric: IS THERE CONSENSUS THAT IT WAS NIKKI HALEY AND DONALD TRUMP WHO WON THE REPUBLICAN DEBATE?

>> MAYBE NOT A CONSENSUS, VIVEK RAMASWAMY I THINK PROBABLY HELPED HIMSELF THE BEST.

IF YOU LOOK AT HIS POLL NUMBERS, HE'S KIND OF STARTING TO BITE ON THE HEELS OF GOVERNOR DeSANTIS WHO'S HAVING HIS OWN TROUBLE.

I THINK THE BIG THING, THOUGH, AS KATHERINE SAID IS DONALD TRUMP EMERGED UNSCATHED.

HE'S GOT A 40-POINT LEAD OVER THE CLOSEST RIVAL FOR THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION AND EACH INDICTMENT SO FAR HAS BOOSTED HIS SUPPORT, HELP HIM FUNDRAISE AT INCREDIBLE LEVELS, AND HE EMERGED UNSCATHED.

HIS CONVERSATION WITH TUCKER CARLSON, WHICH WAS ON, YOU KNOW, WHAT USED TO BE CALLED TWITTER, 74 MILLION PEOPLE STOPPED BY, THE DEBATES HAD 13 MILLION.

>> Eric: HAD THE DEMOCRATS -- >> Cathy: WHY DO WE THINK THE HE REMAINS AS POPULAR AMONG THE BASE?

>> IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THIS IS HIS BASE.

THIS CERTAINLY IS NOT HELPING HIM AMONG INDEPENDENT VOTERS AND WILL SERVE IN A GENERAL ELECTION CONTEXT TO REALLY MOTIVATE DEMOCRATIC VOTERS.

BUT I THINK THAT, YOU KNOW, HE HAS A FOLLOWING THAT HE'S HAD SINCE THE 2016 NOMINATING CONTEST TO REALLY, YOU KNOW, LISTEN TO HIM, LISTEN TO HIS SUPPORTERS AND BELIEVE THAT HE IS INNOCENT AND THIS IS IN FACT POLITICALLY MOTIVATED, AND SO IT IS HARD IN THIS POLARIZED ERA, WHERE PEOPLE ARE GETTING DIFFERENT CONTENTS FROM DIFFERENT POLARIZED NEWS SOURCES TO REALLY BREAK IN WITH SOME FACTS.

>> Eric: WHAT ABOUT THE 14th AMENDMENT AND THE STATEMENT THAT HE'S ALREADY INELIGIBLE, TRUMP IS, TO SERVE IN THE WHITE HOUSE?

>> WELL, IT'S A GREAT THING TO TALK ABOUT AND IF WE HAD MORE TIME, WE WOULD GO INTO THE DETAILS OF IT BUT IT WILL NOT BE SOLVED BEFORE THE 2024 ELECTION.

THERE ARE A LOT OF OPEN QUESTIONS.

IF IT WAS PRESSED, IT WOULD HAVE TO GO THROUGH THE COURTS, IT WOULD END UP AT THE SUPREME COURT AND BY THEN THE NEXT PRESIDENT WILL BE SWORN IN.

SO I SEE NO CHANCE OF THAT ELIMINATING DONALD TRUMP.

>> Eric: COULD STATES DO IT ON THEIR OWN, INDIVIDUAL STATES?

>> THEY COULD, BUT YET AGAIN, YOU'LL HAVE LEGAL CHALLENGES, IT WILL GO THROUGH THE COURT SYSTEM AND IF WE HAVEN'T NOTICED, COURTS MOVE SLOWLY.

>> Cathy: PROFESSOR PEARSON, DO YOU WANT TO COMMENTS ON THAT?

>> I THINK COURTS MOVE SLOWLY IS KIND OF KEY TO EVERYTHING THAT'S GOING ON AND I THINK THE DEBATE ILLUSTRATED HOW POPULAR TRUMP IS AMONG REPUBLICANS, AND HE'S FAR AND AWAY THE LEADING REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE AMONG REPUBLICANS BUT HE MAY NOT BE A CANDIDATES IN 2024, NOT NECESSARILY BECAUSE OF THE LEGAL ISSUES BUT YOU NEVER KNOW WITH HEALTH AND AGING, SO EVEN AS THE FOCUS IS ON TRUMP, I THINK IT'S STILL IMPORTANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE OTHER REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES RIGHT NOW AND EVEN OTHER CANDIDATES WHO COULD JUMP IN IN THE ABSENCE OF A TRUMP.

>> Cathy: SO THE FORMER PRESIDENT DIDN'T DEBATE THIS WEEK.

I'M WONDERING IF THE FUTURE OF DEBATES, JUST GENERALLY SPEAKING, YOU KNOW?

ARE THEY LOSING THEIR STEAM AS SOMETHING THAT'S IMPORTANT IN OUR DEMOCRACY?

>> YOU KNOW, THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS SWORN OFF PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES BUT THIS IS A DONALD TRUMP YEAR.

I THINK EVERYTHING NEEDS TO HAVE AN ASTERISK NEXT TO IT.

I THINK WE JUST SAW A DEBATE WITH ALL THE MAJOR REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES, MINUS DONALD TRUMP.

IF DONALD TRUMP WASN'T AHEAD BY 40 POINTS, HE WOULD HAVE BEEN THERE SO I'M NOT READY TO SWEAR THEM OFF.

I THINK THEY'RE AN IMPORTANT PART.

I THINK THE BIG QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE GET TO THE GENERAL ELECTION BECAUSE THERE -- I THINK THERE WILL BE A DEBATE -- DEBATES, I THINK, YOU KNOW, JOE BIDEN QUITE POSSIBLY, DONALD TRUMP, IT COULD BE A DECISIVE ELEMENTS OF THEIR CONTEST.

>> Eric: I CALL ON THE EXPERTISE OF KATHRYN PEARSON, SEPTEMBER 30th, GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, CONTINUING RESOLUTION, REGULAR ORDER, GIVE US THE SPIEL ON ALL THIS?

>> WELL, CERTAINLY, IT SEEMS PRETTY LEAR THAT THE 12 ANNUAL APPROPRIATIONS BILLS THAT FUND THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT THAT NEED TO BE PASSED BY SEPTEMBER 30th WILL NOT BE COMPLETE.

SO WHAT LEADERS WOULD LIKE TO DO IS PASSÉ CONTINUING RESOLUTION THAT CONTINUES TO FUND THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AT THE SAME LEVEL.

HOWEVER, THE HOUSE FREEDOM CAUCUS, REPUBLICANS, CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS IN THE HOUSE, WANT TO ADD A NUMBER OF VERY CONTROVERSIAL PROVISIONS TO A CONTINUING RESOLUTION, SUCH AS INCREASE BORDER SECURITY, NO FUNDING OR REDUCE FUNDING FOR THE WAR IN UKRAINE, SORT OF SOCIAL POLICY, THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, SO THIS COULD BE A REAL PROBLEM AND I THINK DEMOCRATS ARE PREPARED TO GIVE REPUBLICANS SOME VOTES BUT ONLY IF A CONTINUING RESOLUTION DOESN'T INCLUDE SOME CONTROVERSIAL POLICY RIDERS.

SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ON OCTOBER 1 OR A PARTIAL SHUTDOWN.

>> Eric: WHAT WOULD THAT MEAN PRACTICALLY TO U.S. CITIZENS?

>> IT DEPENDS WHICH FEDERAL AGENCIES ARE SHUT DOWN.

SOCIAL SECURITY TYPICALLY CONTINUES, THAT'S AN ENTITLEMENT.

MEDICARE AND MEDICAID, BUT CERTAINLY PARKS, VETERANS BENEFITS, MANY OF THE DISCRETIONARY FUNDS THAT ARE SO IMPORTANT TO MANY AMERICANS COULD BE HALTED FOR A TIME.

>> Cathy: SAY, GETTING BACK TO PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS, WE ADDRESSED THIS ON "ALMANAC" A FEW WEEKS AGO.

REPRESENTATIVE DEAN PHILLIPS SAYS NOW HE'S NOT RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT BUT THERE WAS SEVERAL WEEKS OF WILL HE OR WON'T HE.

WHAT WAS HE TRYING TO DO?

>> WE TALKED ABOUT IT AND MY COMMENT WAS, HE WOULD BE BOWING OUT.

I THINK IT WAS, HONESTLY, SHAMELESS OPPORTUNISM.

I THINK DEAN PHILLIPS WAS LOOKING FOR A WAY TO BOOST HIS OWN NAME RECOGNITION, POSSIBLY BECAUSE HE'S THINKING OF RUNNING IN THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND WANTS TO DISTINGUISH HIMSELF, AND DISTINGUISHING HIMSELF IN CONGRESS.

I NEVER THOUGHT THIS WAS A SERIOUS REAL EFFORT TO RUN IN A PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN WHICH REQUIRES MONTHS AND EVEN YEARS TO PREPARE FOR AND HE HADN'T DONE THAT.

>> Cathy: HIS ARGUMENT, THOUGH, WAS TO GET NEW BLOOD TO RAISE UP NEW LEADERS IN THE PARTIES.

DOES THAT HAVE VALIDITY TO IT?

>> SURE IT DOES, YEAH, ABSOLUTELY, AND I THINK, FRANKLY, IN THE 2028 ELECTION OR ACTUALLY STARTING SOON AFTER 2024, WE'RE GOING TO SEE THAT BECAUSE THERE'S BEEN A KIND OF MOVING ON, JOE BIDEN AND FRANKLY OTHER PEOPLE AROUND JOE BIDEN WILL HAVE MOVED ON, THERE'S GOING TO BE AN OPENING AND WE CAN ALREADY SEE SOME OF THE YOUNGER DEMOCRATS AND YOUNGER REPUBLICANS AS WE SAW THE OTHER NIGHT, WITH NIKKI HALEY AND OTHERS.

>> Eric: 30 SECONDS.

>> TIM WALZ'S FUTURE.

>> WELL, HIS ANSWERS TO THE MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS WERE SORT OF NONANSWERS, CERTAINLY HE IS SOMEONE WHO IS IN THE NATIONAL MEDIA FREQUENTLY, SORT OF TALKING ABOUT ALL OF MINNESOTA'S SUCCESSES IN TERMS OF LEGISLATION THAT HE CHAMPIONED THAT HAS BEEN SIGNED INTO LAW.

HE IS ONE OF THE PEOPLE THAT DEAN PHILLIPS DID MENTION IN TERMS OF, MAYBE WE JUST NEED A MIDWESTERN GOVERNOR SO TIM WALZ, GETCHEN WHITMERE, THOSE ARE INDEED SOME OF THE PEOPLE THAT I THINK POST-2024, WHERE THE SPECULATION WILL BE.

>> Eric: FRESHMEN ORIENTATION IS OVER, YOU GUYS HAVE A GOOD SCHOOL YEAR.

>> THANK YOU.

>> Eric: THE PROFESSORS, EVERYBODY.

[Applause] >> Cathy: LARRY JACOBS AND OF COURSE KATHRYN PEARSON.

>> Eric: AND THANKS TO THE PROFESSORS AND EVERYBODY WHO JOINED US TODAY.

YOU HAVE BEEN A FABULOUS AUDIENCE.

GIVE YOURSELVES A HAND.

[Applause] WE WANT TO THANK THE BEST CREW IN TELEVISION FOR THEIR WORK TODAY.

A REMINDER TO OUR RADIO LISTENERS, YOU'VE BEEN HEARING A TV SHOW.

YOU CAN TUNE IN TONIGHT TO SEE WHAT EVERYBODY WAS WEARING.

IT MIGHT SHOCK YOU, YOU NEVER KNOW.

>> Cathy: I HAVE TO MENTION, BECAUSE WE ARE ON MINNESOTA PUBLIC RADIO NEWS, THAT WHEN YOU WERE OUT AT THE FAIR, COME VISIT US AT THE MPR BOOTH HERE AT JUDSON AND NELSON.

AND OF COURSE IF YOU STOP BY ON MONDAY AT 2:00 p.m., YOU CAN JOIN ME AND Dr. MARK SEELEY FOR THE ANNUAL STATE FAIR WEATHER QUIZ.

IT'S LIKE 25, 26 YEARS THAT WE'VE BEEN DOING THIS SO IF YOU HAVE AVAILABILITY ON MONDAY, COME ON OUT AND WE'LL TRY TO R.ARE WE'LL TRY TO STUMP YOU AND YOU CAN STUMP THE WEATHER GUY, TOO.

YOU CAN TUNE IN AT NOON ON TUESDAY TO LISTEN TO THE WEATHER QUIZ TO EE WHO WON AND IF WE COULD STUMP Dr. SEALY.

>> Eric: DAN NEWTON IS BACK WITH US FOR ANOTHER TUNE.

A REMINDER THAT DAN WILL BE PLAYING WITH HONKY TONK JUMP NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AT THE SCHELL'S STAGE AT WEST END MARKET.

THAT'S AUGUGUST 28 AND 29.

THANKS FOR ATCHING, REALLY APPRECIATE IT.

BE CAREFUL.

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