BACK TO YOU, ERIC AND CATHY.

>> Eric: THANKS, MARY.

WE'VE GOT SOME POLITICAL CONVERSATION FOR YOU.

ONE MORE HERE TO TALK NATIONAL POLITICS ARE A TRIO OF POLITICAL SCIENTISTS.

CINDY RUGELEY COMES DOWN FROM DULUTH.

SHE HEADS THE DEPARTMENT AT UMD.

KATHRYN PEARSON, POLITICAL SCIENCE OVER AT THE U OF M, AND LARRY JACOBS AT THE HUMPHREY SCHOOL, AND THEY'RE HERE TO GET US KIND OF WHAT'S GOING ON NATIONALLY.

PROFESSOR PEARSON -- YEAH, GIVE 'EM A HAND.

[ APPLAUSE ] REDISTRICTING, CALIFORNIA GONNA GET FIVE DEMOCRATS, TEXAS GONNA GET FIVE NEW REPUBLICANS?

WHY ARE WE HAVING THIS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CENSUS?

>> WHY ARE WE HAVING THIS?

TYPICALLY REDISTRICTING TAKES PLACE EVERY TEN YEARS AFTER THE DECENNIAL CENSUS.

STATES CAN DO IT HOWEVER THEY CHOOSE.

SO IN A LOT OF STATES IT'S UP TO THE LEGISLATURE AND THE GOVERNOR, WITH UNIFIED REPUBLICAN CONTROL AND PRESSURE FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP, THEY WILL NET ABOUT FIVE REPUBLICAN SEATS.

CALIFORNIA WITH 52 HOUSE SEATS DOES HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF REDISTRICTING, GERRYMANDERING IN A PARTISAN WAY SO THAT DEMOCRATS COULD PICK UP ABOUT FIVE HOUSE SEATS.

AND THAT IS WHAT THE CALIFORNIA LEGISLATURE HAS DONE, HOWEVER, CALIFORNIA IS DIFFERENT BECAUSE CALIFORNIA ABOUT 20 YEARS AGO BY THE CITIZENS INITIATIVE PROCESS PASSED A REFORM SO THAT IT IS A BIPARTISAN COMMISSION THAT DOES REDISTRICTING IN CALIFORNIA ABIDING BY NEUTRAL PRINCIPLES.

SO WHAT WILL HAPPEN IS THERE WILL BE A SPECIAL ELECTION THIS NOVEMBER IN CALIFORNIA WHERE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTISAN GERRYMANDER PLAN IS ON THE BALLOT.

CALIFORNIA HAS A MASSIVE DEMOCRATIC EDGE, HOWEVER, REPUBLICANS ARE GEARING UP TO CAMPAIGN AGAINST THIS SORT OF USING THE FRAMEWORK OF SORT OF NEUTRAL CRITERIA LAID OUT BY THE CITIZENS PLAN FROM 20 YEARS AGO.

>> Cathy: THAT IS IMPRESSIVE.

THAT'S IMPRESSIVE THAT YOU KNEW ALL THAT.

AND I'M NOT SURPRISED SINCE YOU'RE A POLITICAL SCIENTIST.

LARRY JACOBS, DOES THIS OPEN THE FLOODGATES FOR OTHER STATES TO LEAP INTO THIS MESS?

>> ABSOLUTELY, AND WE ARE SEEING OTHER STATES.

PROBABLY IT WILL BE EASIER FOR REPUBLICAN STATES TO DO IT THAN -- STATES.

POSSIBLY BECAUSE THE KIND OF DEMOCRATIC STATES HAVE THESE RULES AND COMMISSIONS SET UP.

THE THING THAT REALLY CONCERNS ME IS WE'VE GOT 21 STATES NOW WHERE THE ENTIRE DELEGATION TO THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES IS ONE PARTY.

THAT'S 12 REPUBLICAN STATES AND NINE DEMOCRATIC STATES.

AND THAT JUST MEANS IT LOCKS IN POLARIZATION, IT LOCKS IN RESISTANCE TO KIND OF COMPROMISE.

THAT'S THE DIRECTION WE'RE HEADING, AND IT'S JUST NOT A GOOD DIRECTION.

>> PROFESSOR RUGELEY.

>> THIS WAS ALL MADE POSSIBLE BY A 2019 SUPREME COURT DECISION WHICH PRETTY MUCH SAID THAT YOU CAN'T TAKE ISSUES OF PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING THROUGH FEDERAL COURTS.

AND SO THAT OPENED UP THE DOORS FOR ALL THIS WE'RE SEEING NOW.

AND SO I THINK YOU ARE GOING TO START SEEING A RACE TO THE BOTTOM.

IT WAS AN INTERESTING SUPREME COURT DECISION IN THE FACT THAT THE CHIEF JUSTICE JOHN ROBERTS SAID, YEAH, IT COULD LEAD TO UNJUST OUTCOMES.

PREVIOUSLY THEY HAD TAKEN IT THE SAME WAY THE TRADITIONAL OLD OBSCENITY RULING WAS "I KNOW WHAT IT IS WHEN I SEE IT AND THIS AIN'T IT."

BUT WHAT THEY'VE DONE NOW IS SAY YOU CAN'T TAKE IT THROUGH FEDERAL COURTS.

>> Cathy: I WANT TO MOVE ONTO ANOTHER TOPIC, BUT I DO WANT TO ASK WHETHER YOU THINK VOTERS LOOK AT THIS AND IT JUST ADDS TO THIS FEELING THAT, YOU KNOW, A POX ON EVERYBODY?

>> ABSOLUTELY, ABSOLUTELY.

ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY ARE SEEING THE ACTUAL MAPS WITH SOME OF THESE DISTRICTS THAT MAY EXTEND 100 MILES NORTH AND SOUTH AND, YOU KNOW, COMMUNITIES OF INTEREST AREN'T KEPT TOGETHER AND CITIES AND THEY SORT OF CROSS LINES, IT IS HARDER FOR MEMBERS OF CONGRESS TO REPRESENT DISTRICTS THAT ARE SO STRANGELY DRAWN AND SO BIG.

>> Eric: WHAT DO WE MAKE OF THE SWITCHEROO THAT'S BEING RUMORED THAT THE GOVERNOR DOESN'T RUN FOR A THIRD TERM, AMY KLOBUCHAR RUNS FOR GOVERNOR, SHE PRESUMABLY WINS, AND IF SHE DOES SHE APPOINTS GOVERNOR WALZ TO BE THE SENATE -- -- >> IT'S A GREAT STORY THE STATE FAIR.

[ LAUGHTER ] THIS IS JUST A GREAT STORY AND, YOU KNOW, USUALLY WHEN -- POLITICS WHEN IT GETS THAT COMPLICATED, IT'S SOMEONE'S IMAGINATION.

I'M NOT SURE EXACTLY WHAT THE GOVERNOR'S GOING TO DO, IT'S QUITE POSSIBLE HE WILL RUN.

WHEN I WAS LISTENING TO HIM HERE EARLIER HE SOUNDED LIKE A CANDIDATE.

ON THE OTHER HAND, I NOTICE HIS SOCIAL MEDIA IS NOT THAT ACTIVE, HE'S DOING A LOT OF TRAVEL ELSEWHERE OUT OF THE STATE AND NOT IN THE STATE.

THAT TO ME DOESN'T LOOK LIKE SOMEONE WHO'S REALLY GEARING UP FOR A CAMPAIGN.

SO TO ME IT'S A JUMP-BALL WHETHER HE RUNS OR NOT.

IF HE DECIDES NOT TO RUN THERE'S NO DOUBT THAT AMY KLOBUCHAR WOULD GIVE IT SERIOUS CONSIDERATION AND FOR EVERY REASON YOU CAN IMAGINE.

>> Cathy: WE SHOULD SAY TOO, IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO WIN A THIRD TERM.

VERY DIFFICULT TO WIN A THIRD TERM.

>> OH, ABSOLUTELY.

IT HAS NOT BEEN DONE IN MINNESOTA IN THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE.

IT'S ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE, THOUGH, THAT, YOU KNOW, MINNESOTA IS A RELATIVELY NARROWLY DIVIDED STATE, DEMOCRATS CERTAINLY HAVE AN EDGE IF YOU LOOK AT THE STATEWIDE DEMOGRAPHICS AND STATEWIDE RACES DESPITE THE 4-4 CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION.

HOWEVER, 2026 WILL BE A YEAR THAT FAVORS DEMOCRATS BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT IS A REPUBLICAN.

THAT IS THE CASE IN EVERY MIDTERM ELECTION AND PRESIDENT TRUMP IS VERY UNPOPULAR RIGHT NOW, THOUGH IT'S ALSO IMPORTANT TO ADD SO ARE DEMOCRATS.

BUT I SEE IN 2026 NEGATIVE PARTISANSHIP KICKING IN AND MANY PEOPLE LOOKING AT THE BALLOT AND EVEN THOUGH TRUMP'S NOT ON IT DEMOCRATS VOTING AGAINST TRUMP.

>> Eric: PROFESSOR RUGELEY, I WONDER IF THERE'S SOME PERCEPTION THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS PICKING ON MINNESOTA BECAUSE HE DOESN'T LIKE GOVERNOR WALZ?

OR IS THAT TOO CONSPIRATORIAL?

>> WELL, I THINK THAT -- >> Eric: PUT THE MIC UP CLOSER.

THERE YOU GO.

>> OKAY.

I THINK THE PRESIDENT HAS LEFT A LOT OF REASON FOR PEOPLE TO BELIEVE THAT HE PUNISHES HIS POLITICAL ENEMIES AND THAT HE'S NOT AFRAID TO DO IT.

SO, YEAH, I DO THINK THAT THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT WHETHER OR NOT HE IS -- AND I DON'T KNOW NECESSARILY IF IT'S HE'S PUNISHING DEMOCRATIC STATES OR IF HE'S REWARDING REPUBLICAN ONES.

BUT AGAIN I MEAN, YOU CAN'T DENY THAT HE HAS MADE IT VERY CLEAR THAT HE WILL PUNISH HIS POLITICAL FOES.

>> Cathy: YOU KNOW, I DIDN'T GET A CHANCE TO ASK THE GOVERNOR THIS.

WE TALKED ABOUT THE APPLETON PRISON WITH I.C.E.

BEING A POSSIBLE DETENTION CENTER.

I WONDER ABOUT THE PRESIDENT SENDING NATIONAL GUARD TROOPS INTO WASHINGTON, D.C., THE PRESIDENT CAN DO THAT, SEND NATIONAL GUARD TROOPS INTO A STATE WITHOUT THE GOVERNOR'S SAY-SO, RIGHT?

SO I WONDER WHERE DOES THIS END UP?

>> WELL, I THINK IT'S, YOU KNOW, THE DOOR IS WIDE OPEN AND NOW THAT WE'VE GOT I.C.E.

THAT HAS BECOME SUCH A POWERFUL FORCE IT'S GOING TO BE LARGER THAN MARINES, ITS BUDGETS ARE ENORMOUS.

HE CAN BE USING I.C.E.

ALL OVER THE COUNTRY AS A KIND OF MILITARY FORCE TO TRY TO INFLUENCE IT.

YOU KNOW, WHETHER THIS HAPPENS, I THINK HE'S GOING TO BE LOOKING AT IT ALSO THROUGH A POLITICAL LENS AND WHAT'S HELPFUL IS EVEN THOUGH THERE'S NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR WHAT HE'S DONE IN D.C.

IT HAS ELEVATED THE SALIENCE TO CRIME, WHICH WORKS AGAINST DEMOCRATS.

SO I THINK DONALD TRUMP IS GOING TO BE LOOKING FOR A HOW CAN HE HELP HIMSELF IN 2026, BECAUSE THERE'S NO DOUBT WHAT KATHRYN PEARSON SAID IS TRUE, IT'S SETTING UP AS A YEAR IN WHICH REPUBLICANS WILL BE HURT BY THE PRESIDENT.

>> Eric: D.F.L.

IN MINNEAPOLIS SEEMS VERY, VERY DIVIDED AND, YOU KNOW, ANGRY AT EACH OTHER.

HOW IMPORTANT IS MINNEAPOLIS TO THE D.F.L.

COALITION STATEWIDE?

>> OH, MINNEAPOLIS, HENNEPIN COUNTY, RAMSEY COUNTY, THEY ARE ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL TO THE D.F.L.

COALITION STATEWIDE.

IT'S ALL ABOUT THE MARGINS FOR THE D.F.L.

IN THESE TWO COUNTIES.

ESSENTIALLY DETERMINE ELECTION OUTCOMES.

HOWEVER, IT'S IMPORTANT TO SEPARATE SORT OF THE PARTY CAUCUS, CONVENTIONS, NOMINATING PROCESS, FROM PARTISANSHIP AND PARTY STRENGTH MORE GENERALLY.

SO THE STRENGTH OF PARTISANSHIP FOR DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS IS NOT DETERMINED BY THE PARTY CONVENTIONS AND HOW POPULAR THEY ARE.

THAT SAID, THIS DOES HURT THE PARTY REPUTATION.

>> Cathy: SAY, I WONDER, DOES THIS, IS THIS PROBLEM WITH THE NOMINATING CONVENTION MAYBE UNDERSCORE THE NEED TO GO TO A PRIMARY AND TO SCRAP WHAT APPEARS TO BE LIKE AN OLD FASHIONED NOTION OF HAVING NOMINATING CONVENTIONS?

>> YOU KNOW, I'VE HAD KIND OF MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT THAT AFTER RECENT ELECTIONS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE POLITICAL PARTIES SHOULD BE MORE -- AFTER PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, ON WHETHER OR NOT THE POLITICAL PARTIES DON'T NEED TO BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE IN CHOOSING CANDIDATES.

BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT MINNESOTA, I MEAN, WE'VE BEEN HAVING THESE FIGHTS IN ST. LOUIS COUNTY FOREVER AND IN DULUTH.

>> Eric: YEAH.

>> BUT I MEAN WHEN YOU LOOK AT, YOU KNOW, WHAT'S -- I KIND OF WONDER IF IT'S NOT BEST UNLESS THERE'S A REASON FOR THE PARTIES TO GET INVOLVED, NOT TO.

>> Eric: I THINK WE'RE OUT OF TIME.

>> Cathy: YOU ALL WERE FANTASTIC, YOU ALWAYS ARE.

>> Eric: GIVE THE POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSORS A BIG