>> ERIC: JOE BIDEN ANNOUNCED HE WAS RUNNING, DONALD TRUMP WAS IN COURT, AND TUCKER CARLSON IS OUT A JOB.

LOTS OF THINGS ROILING THE WORLD OF POLITICS.

LET'S TALK TO A TRIO OF FULLY-CERTIFIED, CARD-CARRYING POLITICAL SCIENTISTS.

KATHRYN PEARSON TEACHES POLITICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA.

THAT'S WHERE LARRY JACOBS HEADS THE CENTER FOR POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE AT THE HUMPHREY SCHOOL AT THE U OF M. CYNTHIA RUGELEY ROUNDS OUT OUR GROUP.

SHE HEADS THE POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA DULUTH.

WELL, PROFESSOR JACOBS, AGE AND MENTAL ACUITY ISSUES ASIDE, WHAT DOES THE CAMPAIGN LOOK NOW FOR BIDEN?

ARE WE GOING TO GET A REPLAY OF BIDEN-TRUMP 2 HERE OR -- >> THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION.

YOU KNOW, I WOULD AY WHAT'S THE ECONOMY GOING TO BE LIKE IN A YEAR.

I THINK THAT KIND OF SUMMARIZES IT.

IF THE ECONOMY SOMEHOW CHUGS ALONG AND DOESN'T HIT A RECESSION, I THINK BIDEN IS GOING TO HAVE A DECENT CHANCE.

THE AVERAGE IS THAT THE INCUMBENT USUALLY WINS OVERWHELMINGLY REELECTION BUT IF WE'RE HEADING INTO RECESSION, LOTS OF ECONOMISTS THINK WE ARE, THEN I THINK IT'S A PROBLEM AND BIDEN'S APPROVAL RATING VERY LOW.

AND HIS, YOU KNOW, SCORES IN TERMS OF PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE ECONOMY IS TERRIBLE ALREADY.

IT COULD GET WORSE.

>> Eric: PROFESSOR?

>> I AGREE.

I DON'T THINK THERE'S MUCH ENTHUSIASM FOR EITHER ONE OF THE FRONT-RUNNERS IN THE PRIMARY BUT, AGAIN, IF THE ECONOMY STARTS SLUMPING, THEN HE'S GOING TO HAVE TROUBLE.

MY OPINION WILL JUST END FOR CLOSE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS FOR A LONG TIME TO COME.

THEY'VE BEEN CLOSE THE LAST SEVERAL TIMES.

>> I THINK THAT'S RIGHT AND THEN NARROWLY DIVIDE AND DEEPLY POLAR EASED COUNTRY, I THINK WE'RE NOT GOING TO SEE HIGH APPROVAL RATINGS FOR PRESIDENTANTS FOR MANY YEARS WHOEVER THEY ARE BECAUSE OF THE POLARIZATION.

WERE SEEING DEMOCRATS LARGELY ENTHUSIASTICALLY ENDORSING BIDEN.

>> EXCEPT FOR REPRESENTATIVE DEAN PHILLIPS.

>> RIGHT, THE REST OF THE MINNESOTA DELEGATION HAS BEEN ENTHUSIASTICALLY BEHIND BIDEN AND I THINK PHILLIPS IS SPEAKING TO HIS CONSTITUENTS WHO PERHAPS ARE SAYING IN AN IDEAL WORLD, WE WOULD HAVE A DIFFERENT CANDIDATE.

BUT WE ON'T LIVE IN AN IDEAL WORLD, THE INCUMBENTS IS RUNNING FOR REELECTION SO MOST DEMOCRATS ARE SEEING THIS AS A CHOICE BETWEEN BIDEN, WHO MOST DEMOCRATS WOULD AGREE HE'S DONE A PRETTY GOOD JOB, VERY LEGISLATIVELY PRODUCTIVE IN THE FIRST TWO YEARS AND POTENTIALLY TRUMP, POTENTIALLY ANOTHER REPUBLICAN BUT T'S PRETTY CLEAR THAT BIDEN IS RUNNING AGAINST MAGA AND TRUMP, EVEN IF TRUMP ISN'T ULTIMATELY THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE.

>> Cathy: TALK ABOUT YOUNG VOTERS AND OLDER CANDIDATES?

IS THERE ANY RESEARCH ON THAT?

>> OH, YEAH, BIDEN IS NOT POPULAR.

THERE IS A REASON WHY WE'VE SEEN SO MANY DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC COMMENTATORS MENTIONING, YOU KNOW, THAT THERE'S GOING TO BE A CHALLENGE TO HIM.

IT HASN'T AND AS KATHRYN SAID, THE PARTY IS MORE OR LESS SEALED WITH HOW IDEN HAS DONE.

I THINK THE CHALLENGE FOR BIDEN, MOVING AHEAD AND SO FAR THERE'S PROGRESS, IS HE'S BEEN REBUILDING THE SO-CALLED BLUE WALL AND IT'S PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN, YOU KNOW, WITH THE BIG WIN IN WISCONSIN, THE SUPREME COURT RACE, ALL THAT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.

AND THEN YOU'VE GOT THE DEMOCRATS DOING WELL IN ARIZONA WHERE THEY WON A BIG GUBERNATORIAL RACE, PICKED UP A SENATE RACE IN GEORGIA, ALL THIS KIND OF LOOKS LIKE THE MAKINGS OF A WINNING COALITION FOR BIDEN UT CAN HE BRING IN THE COALITION AGAIN?

WILL YOUNG PEOPLE TURN OUT?

I DON'T SEE THEM VOTING FOR DONALD TRUMP BUT THEY MIGHT JUST STAY AT HOME.

>> Eric: CONGRESSIONAL EXPERT, WE NEED DEBT CEILING 101 HERE.

>> OH, WELL, REPUBLICANS IN THE HOUSE HAVE NARROWLY PASSED A BILL AND THIS BILL EXTENDS THE DEBT CEILING FOR A YEAR BUT ALSO IMPOSES HEAVY, HEAVY SPENDING CUTS ON DOMESTIC DISCRETIONARY SPENDING AND UNDOES MOST OF THE CLIMATE LEGISLATION THAT THE CONGRESS PASSED IN THE LAST CONGRESS UNDER DEMOCRATSIC CONTROL.

AND SO CLEARLY THIS IS NOT SOMETHING THAT THE SENATE IS GOING TO PASS OR THAT THE PRESIDENT IS GOING TO SIGN BUT NOW PRESIDENT BIDEN WHO'S BEEN SAYING, I WANT A CLEAN INCREASE, YOU KNOW, NO SPENDING CUTS, NO -- NOTHING ELSE ATTACHED, WILL BE SORT OF FORCED TO COME TO THE TABLE AND AGREE TO PROBABLY SOME CONCESSIONS FOR REPUBLICANS.

ON THE OTHER HANDS, McCARTHY DOESN'T HAVE ANY ROOM TO SPARE TO PASS A COMPROMISE, SOME HOW DEMOCRATS WILL NEEDS TO GO ALONG.

>> Eric: DOESN'T McCARTHY DESERVE SOME CREDIT FOR WRANGLING THIS DEAL ON A DISPARATE CONGRESS?

>> I GUESS SO.

I'M NOT SURE IT'S A PARTICULARLY POPULAR PACKAGE THAT HE'S PUTS TOGETHER, I'M NOT SURE IT'S GAINING HIM ANY VOTES.

WHEN OU TALK ABOUT -- WHEN WE TALKED A MINUTE AGO ABOUT THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND YOUNG VOTERS, SEEMS LIKE THE ISSUES THAT THE DEMOCRATS ARE RUNNING ON CERTAINLY DO LINE UP BETTER FOR THESE YOUNG VOTERS THAN, YOU KNOW, BIDEN AND THE AGE ASIDE.

BUT AGAIN, I THINK, UN, McCARTHY IS GOING TO HAVE TO DO THAT THROUGHOUT HIGH TENURE OF SPEAKER IS COBBLE TOGETHER THE COALITIONS AND I'M NOT SURE WHAT HE CAN PUT TOGETHER IS GOING TO BE A VERY CUTE PUP TEE.

>> Cathy: GO AHEAD, PROFESSOR.

>> I'M GOING TO SAY I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE DIFFICULT.

I AGREE WITH CINDY.

THEY BASICALLY PASSED A SYMBOLIC BILL BUT THEY HAD TALKED ABOUT BALANCED BUDGETS, THEY TALKED ABOUT THESE REALLY DRACONIAN CUTS.

THEY DIDN'T DELIVER ON IT AND SOME OF THE CONSERVATIVES WHO DID NOT VOTE WITH McCARTHY ARE SAYING WHAT'S THE BIG DEAL HERE, YOU KNOW, OVER TEN YEARS, THE BIDEN BUDGET IS GOING TO GIVE YOU 58 BILLION DEBT AND WITH THE EPUBLICAN BILL, IT'S GOING TO BE 53 BILLION.

SO NOW THEY NEGOTIATE, THEY COME BACK TO THE SAME GROUP OF REPUBLICANS AND THEY SAY, OKAY, WE'VE HAD TO MAKE THESE COMPROMISES, AND THE CUTS THAT WE'VE PROPOSED IN THE SYMBOLIC BILL ARE EVEN LESS SEVERE.

SO I THINK THIS IS -- THIS IS GOING TO BE NAIL-BITING TIME AND WE MAY BE HEADING INTO SOME REAL, YOU KNOW, DEBT POLITICS AND CRISIS.

>> Eric: COULD YOU TALK ABOUT THE IMPACTS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON THE -- ON POLITICS?

YOU'RE SEEING PICTURES ON LINE THAT LOOK TOTALLY REALISTIC AND THEY'RE NOT AND INTERVIEWS THAT ARE BEING MADE UP AND -- >> Cathy: THE RNC HAD THE AD AGAINST BIDEN RIGHT AFTER HIS ANNOUNCEMENT.

>> IT'S ENORMOUS AND I CAN'T BEGIN TO GRASP WHAT THE FUTURE HOLD, JUST AS THIS TIME LAST YEAR I WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN ABILITY TO SORT OF SAY, OH, MY STUDENTS WOULD EVER THE CAPACITY TO GIVE A FEW PROMPTS FOR AN ESSAY SO I'VE RYE STRUCK TUR EXAMS AND THINGS SO IRV AERIE STRUCTURED EXAMS AND THINGS BUT EVERY INDUSTRY IS GOING TO HAVE TO GRAPPLE WITH THIS AND POLITICS IS NO DIFFER.

>> Eric: YOU KIND OF NEED A HIGH-TRUST ELEMENT IN A DEMOCRACY AND THIS JUST CRICKETS TO OW TRUST, DOESN'T IT?

>> AND YOU KNOW THAT GOES INTO A BIGGER QUESTION, WHAT DO YOU DO ABOUT IT?

WHEN YOU HAVE PEOPLE THAT ARE WILLING TO MISLEAD AND USE BAD INFORMATION, WHAT DO YOU DO ABOUT IT?

I MEAN, WE'VE TALKED BEFORE ABOUT HOW WE PUT THE BURDEN REALLY LIES ON ELECTED OFFICIALS AND ELITES IN ORDER TO BRING THIS -- BRING THESE MAD BEHAVIORS FLANKLY UNDER CONTROL.

BUT, YOU KNOW, IT DOES RAISE INTERESTING QUESTIONS, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE TO -- YOU KNOW, I DO -- I THINK WE MAY BE SEEING THE BLUE BOOK AGAIN, I MEAN, IT'S -- YOU HAVE TO CHANGE THE WAY YOU GIVE EXAMS AND DO WE NEED TO CHANGE SOMETHING TO REIN IN BAD POLITICS.

>> WELL, TRUST HAS BEEN TAKING A HIT NOW FOR A WHILE IN AMERICA.

WE HAVE ALL SORTS OF MEASURES OF TRUST THAT ARE DONE ND AT OR BELOW HISTORIC LOWS SO THIS IS ANOTHER KIND OF, YOU KNOW, PUNCH TO THE STOMACH, AND I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE.

I AGREE WITH MY COLLEAGUES.

I DON'T THINK THERE'S KIND OF A MAGIC BULLET HERE.

I THINK WE'RE GOING TO BE IN FOR CRISIS -- >> Cathy: BUT HOW WORRIED ARE YOU ALL ABOUT POLITICAL SCIENTIST?

>> I WOULD SAY IT'S THE NUMBER ONE THING, I DON'T WORRY ABOUT RUSSIA ANYMORE, HEY'VE GOT THEIR OWN PROBLEMS.

I'M NOT WORRIED, REALLY, ABOUT THE SAFETY AND SECURITIES OF OUR ELECTION SYSTEM, I THINK WE MADE BIG PROGRESS THERE BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WHERE THE CAT'S OUT OF THE BAG.

IT'S JUST RUNNING AROUND AND HONESTLY WE DON'T REALLY HAVE A SOLUTION TO IT.

>> Eric: WHAT IS WITH GOVERNOR WALZ AND THE NATIONAL MEDIA?

NOW HE'S ON CNN AGAIN TODAY TALKING ABOUT THE TRANSGENDER STUFF.

HE'S RIPPING ON GOVERNOR DeSANTIS IN THE STATE-OF-THE-STATE ADDRESS.

HERE'S A MODERATE FIRST-DISTRICT CONGRESSMAN, COULDN'T GETS ENDORSED AT HIS OWN CONVENTION BECAUSE IT'S NOT LIBERAL ENOUGH AND HERE HE IS LEADING IT IS PROGRESSIVE CHARGE.

>> CERTAINLY HE HAS A LOT TO BRAG ABOUT IN THE SENSE THAT VERY NARROW UNIFIED DFL CONTROL IN MINNESOTA AND JUST, YOU KNOW, A VERY HIGH LEVELS OF LEGISLATIVE PRODUCTIVITY.

I MEAN, YOU KNOW, THE POLITICAL SCIENCE, EVERYBODY WAS SAYING AT THE OUTSET OF SESSION, VERY NARROW MARGINS, IT'S GOING TO BE HARD, THERE WILL BE INTERNAL DIVISIONS BUT THE REALITY IS, YOU KNOW, THEY JUST KEEP PASSING PRIORITY AFTER PRIORITY, YOU KNOW, TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION, STILL NEEDS TO GO TO CONFERENCE, THE MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION BILL BUT IT IS JUST IMPRESSIVE HOW MUCH THEY HAVE DONE AND I THINK THERE'S THE SENSE NOW THAT, YOU KNOW, WITH TOSS-UP POLITICS, THINGS GO BACK AND FORTH AND SO MAKE THE MOST OF THE TIME.

I THINK, YOU KNOW, HE'S TRYING TO SHARE THAT WITH THE COUNTRY JUST AS MANY EPUBLICAN STATES ARE GOING IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION, THE QUESTION IS, DOES HE HAVE HIGHER AMBITIONS?

>> Eric: THE R SAY WE'RE TURNING INTO CALIFORNIA AND THEY SAY, OF COURSE, THAT AIN'T GOOD.

>> YES, THEY DO BUT I THINK HE'S BEING RECOGNIZED AS MAYBE WHAT A LOT OF DEMOCRATS ARE LOOKING FOR, A CENTRIST WHO'S ABLE TO GETS THINGS DONE, AND I MEAN, WE WERE TALKING ABOUT BEFORE COMING IN HERE, THE MARIJUANA BILL IN THE SENATE.

DEMOCRATS IN THE SENATE HAVE RECOGNIZED, YOU KNOW, WHAT THEIR CAUCUS IS, AND WHAT THEY HAVE TO DO TO GETS THINGS DONE AND, FRANKLY, TO GET THEIR COLLEAGUES REELECTED.

>> WELL, WE'LL SEE.

I THINK IN A LOT OF WAYS THE DEMOCRATS MAY BE OVERREACHING.

THERE IS A LOT OF SPENDING GOING ON HERE, EVEN THOUGH THEY'VE GOT A MASSIVE SURPLUS, THEY'RE RAISING TAXES, AND THEN THEY'RE PUTTING TAXES AND FEES WHICH ARE EASY POLITICAL GAME FOR REPUBLICANS.

AT THIS MOMENT, YOU KNOW, MORE POWER TO THE GOVERNOR, HE'S GETTING SOME NATIONAL PRESS.

BUT LET'S CHECK BACK IN A COUPLE YEARS.

I THINK THIS COULD BE A LOSING SESSION.

>> Cathy: BY THE AY, I SEE SENATOR KLOBUCHAR HAS A NEW BOOK OUT.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

>> OH, SHE'S RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT FOR SHU SURE.

OBVIOUSLY NOT IN PLACE OF JOE BIDEN -- >> ADJUSTED CASE CANDIDATE -- >> NO, THE THING WITH BOOKS AND ALL OF US CAN TALK ABOUT THIS, YOU KNOW, THEY TAKE A WHILE TO WRITE AND THEN THEY'RE UNDERWAY AND YOU CAN'T REALLY PULL THEM BACK.

SO MAYBE THERE WILL BE A SECOND EDITION.

>> Eric: I CHECKED AN GOVERNOR WALZ IS NOT WRITING A BOOK.

[Laughter] SO THAT MEANS THAT SOMETHING ELSE IS UN, MAYBE.

NO LABELS, THIRD PARTY, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE?

>> YEAH, THAT COULD BE A CHALLENGE BECAUSE AS WE WERE TALKING ABOUT, THESE ARE VERY, VERY CLOSE NATIONAL ELECTIONS.

IF YOU'VE GOT A THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE THAT'S ABLE TO EVEN TAKE ONE OR TWO PERCENT, COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE.

BY THE WAY, THAT COULD BE PART OF THE PASSAGE OF THE MARIJUANA BILL, THE DFL IS VERY INTENT TO GET THOSE POT PARTIES OUT OF ELECTIONS, THEY THINK THEY CAN WIN MORE RELIABLELY IF THEY'RE NOT THERE.

>> Cathy: COMMENT FROM YOU ON THIS?

>> YEAH, WELL I HINK -- CERTAINLY TRUMP LOOKS LIKE HE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE NOMINEE AGAIN BUT I THINK IT WILL BE INTERESTING IF HE IS NOT THE NOMINEE, WOULD HE RUN ANY WAY?

>> Eric: INTERESTING.

GOOD STUFF, PANEL.