
Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on 2024 candidate fundraising
Clip: 7/17/2023 | 8m 42sVideo has Closed Captions
Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on third-party candidate impact and 2024 fundraising
NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter join Geoff Bennett to discuss the latest political news, including third-party candidates and newly-released fundraising totals in the 2024 presidential race.
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Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on 2024 candidate fundraising
Clip: 7/17/2023 | 8m 42sVideo has Closed Captions
NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter join Geoff Bennett to discuss the latest political news, including third-party candidates and newly-released fundraising totals in the 2024 presidential race.
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Learn Moreabout PBS online sponsorshipGEOFF BENNETT: For a midsummer check-in of the presidential race, including newly released fund-raising totals, we're joined by our Politics Monday team.
That's Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.
It's good to see you both.
TAMARA KEITH, National Public Radio: Good to be here.
AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: Good to see you.
GEOFF BENNETT: So let's start with this controversy surrounding this group No Labels.
They say they're offering an alternative, but it's not clear what that alternative will be.
West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, the former governor of Utah, Jon Huntsman, they were both in New Hampshire at a No Labels event today.
It's not clear that they would be the ticket, if there actually is a ticket.
Amy, for the masses who say that they are dissatisfied by the two choices, do they really want a third alternative?
Do they want a third-party candidate?
AMY WALTER: Well, this is what the difficulty is in trying to poll the question of a third-party candidate, because, in theory, of course, if you get a choice between two people that you're like, oh, I don't know that I love this matchup, I would love another alternative, especially somebody who says that they're centrist and moderate.
But my centrist and moderate may be different from yours or from Tam's, right?
My idea of the ideal candidate is not -- is difficult to poll.
Then you put the actual candidate in there, I see that candidate and I go, no, that person is too conservative, that person's too liberal.
So there's -- that is very difficult to do.
The other piece, I understand why Democrats are as worried as they are; 42,000 votes separated Donald Trump from being reelected again.
The Electoral College margin was basically 42,000 votes.
So any sliver could take votes away from Joe Biden.
At the same time, there are also Republicans, many of them who continue to vote in the Republican primary, they say they don't want Trump to be the nominee.
They probably voted for Donald Trump in 2020.
Those voters also might be willing to support a third-party candidate.
But if you're Democrats, and you see the last two times that the White House was lost, even though your candidate won the popular vote in 2000, and in 2016, you see third-party candidate and you think disaster.
GEOFF BENNETT: Tam, how are Democrats planning to confront this challenge, or is it still too early yet?
TAMARA KEITH: Well, I asked the campaign, and they had no on-the-record comment for me, which is to say that they have a lot of thoughts that they aren't publicly sharing.
And I think that's where they are, is kind of hoping this will go away, having friends who are putting together groups that are pointing out the concerns and challenges that could exist with this.
And if you look at history, George H.W.
Bush faced -- there was a third-party candidate in 1992.
The incumbent ended up losing.
The third-party candidate, Ross Perot, certainly siphoned votes away from him.
And then, if you look, in 2000, again, with - - he wasn't the incumbent, but Al Gore was certainly like an incumbent.
And there was a lack of enthusiasm out there.
And Ralph Nader got just enough votes to help George W. Bush win.
So third-party candidates are a concern for major-party candidates and for major parties, because they can take away votes, they can destabilize the -- they can change the dynamic.
But the thing that a third party has not been able to do, and it's not clear that what No Labels is talking about doing would do this either, is break the grip of the two-party system on American politics, which is what everybody who hates the two-party system says they'd like to do, but no one has found the way because of the way the system is set up to actually break that grip.
GEOFF BENNETT: Well, let's talk about the money race, because we're getting a first full financial look at the 2024 presidential race as candidates file their campaign finance reports.
I got to put my glasses on and look at the numbers here.
AMY WALTER: Yes, I hear you.
GEOFF BENNETT: But, on the Republican side, look at this number.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
He raised a strong $20 million.
But his campaign is burning through cash at a rapid rate.
And his presidential campaign is shedding staff as it navigates this cash crunch.
And, Amy, less than 15 percent of his contributors have come from small donors.
What does that suggest about the strength of his campaign?
AMY WALTER: Well, for the DeSantis campaign, you have to look at how much money he's raising and spending.
And then he also has a super PAC.
Their FEC reports aren't due until the end of the month.
So there's a lot of money being spent, regardless of whether it's in his coffers.
A lot of those are the big donors.
To your point, they're not coming from small donors.
The other thing about, whenever I see a campaign say, well, yes, we're getting a lot of criticism, our candidate is not getting traction, we have to shake up our campaign staff, it's usually the candidate that's the problem.
GEOFF BENNETT: Yes.
AMY WALTER: It's very rarely that the campaign is the reason that you're not breaking through.
Should they spend less money?
Sure.
Maybe have lower overhead.
But the challenge that the DeSantis campaign has right now is the messenger and the message, not the fact that they have too many people on the payroll.
GEOFF BENNETT: And on the Democratic side, Tam, the president announced he raised north of $19 million.
But Biden's campaign, it's a real bare-bones operation.
He spent more than $1 million in the second quarter of this year.
By contrast, former President Barack Obama, his campaign at the time, in a comparable period, spent more than $11 million.
So, I mean, President Biden is taking campaign frugality here to an entirely new level, it appears.
TAMARA KEITH: Well, what you have to say about these numbers is that in order to make an apples-to-apples comparison -- well, one, it's impossible.
But, also, in order to make an apples-to-apples comparison to previous cycles, you have to look at both the campaign itself and the Democratic Party, or, in the case of Trump, the Trump campaign and the Republican Party in the reelection year.
And, in that case, President Biden, the total with the joint fund-raising committee and the Democratic National Committee is up to $72 million.
Now, that's not as much as Obama or Trump had, but, again, problems with apples and oranges and all the comparisons.
But, yes, the Biden campaign is leaning incredibly on the Democratic National Committee.
Their fund-raising, everything they're doing is being done in lockstep and in coordination.
Really, more than for former President Obama, it really is one campaign.
The only campaign-style rallies that he's done so far in this campaign, were actually put on by outside groups and the Democratic National Committee.
The Biden campaign did not put on those events.
It was not -- it did not come from the line item of the Democratic -- or from President Biden's campaign.
GEOFF BENNETT: And looking again at these numbers, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., his presidential campaign included donors who typically contribute to Republicans.
That was clear in the campaign finance filings.
And he, as you both know, is someone who constantly courts controversy.
His latest comments about a new COVID conspiracy theory are fueling allegations of racism and antisemitism.
Here's part of what he said.
ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. (D), Presidential Candidate: COVID-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people.
The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.
And -- but we don't know whether it was deliberately targeted, that, or not, but there are papers out there that show the -- the racial and ethnic differential impact.
GEOFF BENNETT: So, RFK Jr. says he was misunderstood, he was taken out of context.
That aside, there was a time when that sort of thing would be campaign-ending and potentially career-ending, and yet.
AMY WALTER: Well, and yet we're covering it.
And we're talking about him.
And so he continues to get a great deal of, whether we want to call it oxygen, or maybe some of this donor support, in part because he's out there so much, even with controversy.
We know that controversy pays.
The one thing that I'm curious to see as we come and see some new polling in the upcoming days is whether this controversy is taking a toll on his poll numbers with Democrats.
Remember, we saw some polling where he was as high as 20 percent.
Let's see if, since we have had all of these discussions, his numbers with Democrats are much lower.
GEOFF BENNETT: Amy Walter and Tamara Keith, we will see you back here next Monday.
AMY WALTER: Indeed.
TAMARA KEITH: Good to see you.
AMY WALTER: Bye.
TAMARA KEITH: Bye.
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