(upbeat music) - Hello and welcome to "Journal."

I'm Steve Kendall.

Ohio voters exercised their franchise November 7th.

What does it all mean?

Well, joining us in this studio are Dr. Nicole Kalaf-Hughes and Dr. Melissa K. Miller from Bowling Green State University and from Columbus, the State of Ohio, Karen Kasler.

Welcome to "Journal" everybody.

Karen, let's start with you.

What's the mood like in Columbus because, obviously, the governor and the leaders of the legislature and many members to legislature, this isn't the outcome they expected, they wanted on 1 or 2.

So what's the feeling down there now?

What's their next move?

What are they thinking about all of this?

- Well, I think this is the outcome that was expected both on Issue 1 and Issue 2 and whether it's the outcome that people wanted or not, that's, I think exactly your point there.

The Issue 2 attitude has been, all along, that because it's a law, it can be changed and it will be tweaked and governor Mike DeWine has said he's going to be meeting with people, the stakeholders, legislatures, people who are involved in this to try to figure out exactly what they wanna do.

Do they wanna change things with regard to where the tax revenue from legal marijuana goes, do they want to make some other changes that specifically talk about setting up businesses and helping people who have been convicted of marijuana-related laws, the THC content in marijuana, that sort of thing.

Issue 1 is a different thing because Issue 1 is a constitutional amendment.

And recently Democrats have proposed a package of legislation to deal with abortion-related laws that are already on the books in Ohio and Republicans are responding really with a lot of angry energy, I guess, is the way to put it because they're very frustrated with what this result was and a lot of the groups that help campaign Issue 1 are kind of fueling that.

Over the weekend, it was a statement at ohiohouse.gov, which is the official house website, in the Republican section that said that they were considering removing the judiciary from the authority of making decisions on the legality of some of these laws and that the Ohio legislature would be the only ones who could make these decisions abased on public hearings and legal input from all sorts of experts.

The question is whether that is actually going to be what they proposed or whether that's even constitutional.

- Right, and that's a good point because, obviously, the assumption is that constitutional law would override legislative reaction and there is that sort of balance of power situation.

I mean, is it conceivable that they could actually push legislation through and say the courts have no say in this, we'll decide in the legislature what Issue 1 really said.

Is that a possibility obviously?

- Yeah, and that's what we're waiting to see and as we take this right now we don't have that answer, but certainly Republicans have suggested this is the way they want to go.

They want to remove the authority of the courts to gauge whether certain Ohio laws are constitutional based on what just passed in Issue 1.

Speaker Jason Stevens, I asked his people over the weekend if he agrees with the statement that was posted again, ohiohouse.gov, the official website and he said we're not commenting right now.

- Interesting.

Dr. Hughes, I mean, talk about that a little bit that we've got, obviously, well, talk about Issue 1 a little bit.

There was a reason why we voted in August to deal with constitutional amendments and the sealing the floor for approving those things.

Are you surprised that this is now the outcome in terms of the way people are reacting on the side that in essence lost in this election?

- No, I think this is essentially what happens when you have a legislature that's very out of step with what the average Ohioan wants to see.

The reason we had the August election immediately essentially after the legislature had said no more August elections was to try to prevent voters really actually having a say on this and raised the threshold to 60 because the abortion rights constitutional amendment was polling it around 58 to 57%.

So they went with 60.

It did not pass.

And so no we're here and the results of the election are pretty much exactly what the data in Ohio would suggest and the data nationwide would suggest, which is that abortion rights are broadly popular.

And it's not, it doesn't come down neatly along party lines or anything, that they tend to be fairly broadly popular.

And we have a legislature in Ohio because of both how are districts are drawn, our history of gerrymandering a host of other things that is much farther to the right than what the average Ohio voter is.

And so because of that, their policy positions and their preferences are different than particularly what you would see in a statewide election.

And so now they're left with either accepting the will of the voters, which has historically not been the legislative preference on a variety of issues in Ohio or trying to come up with something that might thwart the will of the voters.

And there is a history of the Ohio legislature just kind of ignoring the courts.

You see it with how we fund our schools, you see it with statewide education policy and so we don't, right, particularly it's Monday morning, so we don't really know how this is going to shake out in the coming week, but I think this reaction from state legislators and the legislature broadly is not surprising and the way people voted is essentially exactly what was suggest by Ohio data, as well as nationwide data.

Every state that has seen this on the ballot has produced pretty similar results.

- Now, Dr. Miller we look at that, turnout was roughly, when all is said and done, whatever ballots are out there, provisional absentee ballots get counted, roughly under 50%.

Is that surprising given this issue was on the ballot that less than 50% of Ohioans came out to vote on Issue 1 and Issue 2?

- Well, on odd year elections, which we're in 2023, there were no federal elections on the ballot and there were only these two statewide issues on the ballot, we always expect the turnout to be lower.

That's historically been true.

So I think what's interesting is that 800,000 more people voted in November than had voted in August and so I think proponents of Issue 1 and Issue 2 were hoping that the August results really suggested they'd have a lot of momentum and it did prove to be true although, again, that's just an odd year election.

You know, Americans are asked and called on to vote multiple times every single year and there are lots of reason why voter turnout is lower, for instance, in US democracy than it is in other western democracies.

So I wasn't terribly surprised.

I think, though, there was a surge from the August election and it certainly benefited proponents of Issue I and Issue 2.

- Because I know a couple of weeks ago we talked, the question was who will turn out their voters and it's obvious.

But, again, and we'll talk about some of the graphic information the way people voted in different groups.

It's, yeah, as you said, it's not a clear cut, this party votes one way, or this gender votes one way, this gender votes.

All the demographics are mixed and mingled together, especially on Issue 1.

- Yes, and another thing that's interesting, if you look at the exit polling that's available is that the Republican turnout, if you look at who was in the exit polls and what percentage of Republicans versus Democrats constituted the exit polls, Republicans were about 1, 2% higher than Democrats.

You can also look at the same who constituted the exit polls broken down by liberal, moderate, conservative.

Again, conservatives were one or two percentage points higher than liberals.

So I wasn't that like Conservative turnout or Republican turnout failed, it was that they clearly lost the middle, right?

So those moderate voters, those independent voters, you know, they swung to the left on Issue 1 and Issue 2.

- When we come back, and I know Karen on her show on Sunday and Friday was looking at this and, yeah, there was that moderate group and she can maybe speak to that when we come back about who voted, what groups broke out and the one thing that we saw, too, and we can talk about this is, we always talk about it and these two issues seems to really have a lot of traction there, that big groundswell of younger voters didn't turn out the way people anticipated.

We can talk about that, too.

Back in just a moment here on "The Journal," with Dr. Nicole Kalaf-Hughes, Dr. Melissa K. Miller, and the host of the State of Ohio, Karen Kasler.

Back in just a moment.

Thanks for staying with us here on "The Journal."

We're talking about the results of the election on November 7th.

Karen, we'll come to you again first.

Definitely looking at the demographics there was a lot of exit polling.

Talk a little about some of the things that we saw on that exit polling that might surprise us or maybe doesn't surprise us when we take a look at how people said they voted as they walked out of the polling booths on election day.

- [Karen] Well, just before we went to the break, we were talking about the breakdown of who showed up to vote.

- Right.

- And, you know, for the most part, almost even Republican, Democrats, Independents, but Republicans voted very specifically, especially on Issue 1 as you might expect.

Republicans and Conservatives voted against overwhelmingly.

Democrats and Liberals on Issue 1 voted overwhelmingly for it.

It was that middle.

Two-thirds of those people in the middle were the ones who decided this election and they voted yes on Issue 1 and I think that that's really an interesting point when you start looking at if you take out one side and the other and you look straight down the middle where that vote goes.

But the other thing that I think is really fascinating is to look at the two maps of Issue 1 versus Issue 2, where it passed on both.

Issue passed in 25 YOs counties, 63 counties rejected it and 18 of those counties were counties that were won by former President Trump in 2020.

So these were Republican counties where Issue 1 passed.

Issue 2 passed in 40 counties and it failed in 48 and the maps look very different because of where the voters all live.

So while the results were almost the same, 56%, where those voters fell and the geography of that is really interesting.

- Yeah, and I know when you looked at some of that stuff, too, and you guys can weigh in on this, too, gender, there was some issue there, but there was support, both majority support, men and women for Issue 1, more women than men in terms of percentages.

Is that a surprise, Dr. Hughes that so many voted in support of Issue 1 because some would say, well, they have different play in the game than maybe women do.

At least that would be how some people would view it.

- I mean, they do have a different play in the game, but if you look at the data nationwide and in Ohio, access to reproductive healthcare is broadly popular, regardless of gender and so that's not surprising, at least not to me.

We know there are certain segments of men and women who either support reproductive healthcare access or oppose it, but it tends to still be broadly popular.

And the same factors that would lend someone to vote in support of it, it's not just gender.

You see party, you see education, you see religious affiliation.

Right, you see views towards women and what you believe women's role is.

All of those things factor into how someone typically feels about abortion.

So it's not just purely driven by gender.

- Yeah, and I know, Dr. Miller, when we look at some of this and I know mentioned earlier that it's that independent moderate center that we always talk about that basically decided both of these and we know that at least the conventional wisdom is that there's where most items get, whether it's elected officials, whether it's a presidential election, that's the group of people that decides these things and yet what we always hear and see the most of are the two extremes.

You know, the extreme yes voters, the extreme no voters and yet in the middle, here's this majority of people that actually made the decision versus the two groups that were shouting on the edges of it.

Not that they aren't allowed to do that, but in the end, it's that quieter middle group that makes the decision.

- That's right and in that regard, this election was not unlike presidential elections and other statewide, you know, US Senate elections and the like that in Ohio, it remains the case that there tend to be equal numbers, roughly equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats, but the bigger group is the Independents in the middle and which ever way they swing is going to determine the outcome of a presidential election or a US Senate race or a blockbuster social issue statewide ballot.

And so that's what we saw.

And I think, again, the question is, I think there was a lot of democratic celebration on the night of the election, not just for what happened in Ohio, but for Andy Beshear holding onto the Kentucky governor's seat and so forth.

So there was a lot for Democrats to celebrate on election night, but a big question is all right, these were blockbuster social issues.

People really turned out.

Will they turn out in 2024 when the two names at the top of the ticket, neither of them is very popular at all.

Both are under water in terms of being, having more people unfavorable toward them as opposed to favorable.

So we just don't know how this translates to 2024, but it does indicate a lot of pundits are saying Ohio's now a red state, but I go back to Nicky's point in the first segment, which was Ohio is very gerrymandered, that has created a super majority for the Republicans in the state legislature.

That's not the same thing as having a majority Republican voters.

And so Ohio voters, as she said, I'm sorry, I'm just repeating your excellent point, but that Ohio voters still tend to be roughly equally divided with that big chunk in the middle that decides election counts.

- And, Karen, I know on your show you Sunday, you talked about the fact, well, we watch it on Sunday here, obviously at other times, that there was a situation where you look at that sort of thing and you talked about Michigan and Ohio, that Michigan and Ohio both voted roughly the same percentage wise on approving these reproductive rights, putting it in there respective constitutions and yet Ohio has this feeling of being much more Republican than Michigan, and Michigan from what I can understand, they're not going to go back and refight this fight again because they control the legislature right now, the Democrats do, versus here in Ohio where statewide offices and the legislature are controlled by Republicans.

So, how do you view that when you look at that and say, gee, we voted the same way on the same issue but our respective vote blocks look dramatically different at times and I guess it speaks to what Dr. Kalaf-Hughes and Dr. Miller said, so when you're in Columbus, you're seeing a whole different view than we may be sitting here in northwest Ohio.

- Yeah, I think it's really interesting to compare Michigan and Ohio and that 56, 57%, again, as we said earlier, that's why state lawmakers wanted to raise that 60% to amend the constitution because that 56, 57% is what seems to be happening in all of the states.

There are seven states now that have affirmed abortion rights and that's really close to the number that most of those states have hit.

And when you look at Michigan and Ohio and the politics there.

I mean, on their proposal on abortion rights last year, they have the support of the governor and the results turned out to be almost the same as in Ohio, where the governor was campaigning actively against the affirmation of abortion rights.

And Ohio is, at least when you look at statewide results over the last 10 years or so, Ohio does have more Republican success on those statewide offices like governor, now, Sherrod Brown has one US Senate, but Republicans have enjoyed a lot of success over the last 10 years.

I agree that I think it's too soon to project what this means for 2024, even though people are already doing it, but certainly both parties can learn a lot from what they saw in these results and try to maybe consider their messaging or find candidates that speak to these issues that are clearly important.

One thing I want to add, actually two data points that I thought were really interesting.

First of all, the prediction of young voters flocking the polls once again didn't happen, only 12% of voters were in that young category of 18 to 24 and also CNN's exit polls reported a quarter, 24% of people who identify as white, born-again evangelical Christians voted yes on Issue 1 and 30% of that group voted yes on Issue 2, which is really interesting because you would expect exactly the opposite, that we, overwhelmingly against both of those issues in that category.

- Yeah, and those are interesting points.

When we come back, let's talk about where we think we're going from here and I know we're obviously gonna be speculating.

As one of our other colleagues says, I'm not gonna make a prediction here, but we'll go from there.

So back in just a moment with Dr. Nicole Kalaf-Hughes, Dr. Melissa Miller and Dr. Karen, Kasler, the host of the State of Ohio, here on "The Journal."

Thanks for staying with us on "The Journal."

We're talking about the results of the November 7th election.

Karen, you referenced this early on, but already, the comments are from the legislature, both Matt Huffman and from Jason Stevens, one more than the other maybe that this isn't the end.

We may come back with another constitutional amendment and if that doesn't work, another constitutional amendment to keep going at this until they find a sweet spot where they get the outcome that they would like.

So, talk a little about that messaging that's going on already and whether or not the governor who, of course, isn't exactly in step with the legislature all the time, how he feels about that.

- Yeah, on election night, we heard from House speaker Jason Stevens saying that the legislature's gonna do what they can to uphold their view, which was against Issue 1.

Senate President Matt Huffman was a lot more direct and he hinted at something, or he had hinted this in August after Issue 1 failed then, the 60% voter approval threshold, but he said that this will mean a revolving door of ballot issues on this topic, which I think you're gonna deal with an awful lot of voter fatigue.

Voters have been talking about this now since February or March when the August election was first announced and you're also gonna deal with a lot of donor fatigue.

A lot of people have put time and money into both these issues, both sides of it rather and they just don't have a lot to give.

Governor Mike DeWine has said that the will of voters should be respected, but also has said people need to see how Issue 1 is implemented because then they'll be able to judge whether they like it or not.

- Now, one of the things, too, Matt Huffman and Jason Stevens aren't exactly the best of friends all the time.

Will that create an issue with that message that they're gonna try and move forward?

- Absolutely, I think it's really important to note that Matt Huffman's term limited in the Senate, he's already announced he's running for the House and if he and Jason Stevens both win, it's very likely that Huffman will challenge Stevens as speaker and they speak to the same constituency and so I think this is messaging that's specifically targeted toward their voter and people who support them.

- Now, when we talk about messaging Dr. Hughes, talk a little about the way the messages were presented on November 7th and how that worked or didn't work for either side.

- Well, I think, and I think you do see this again nationwide, Ohio is not unique here, that the messaging for the people who are voting yes on Issue 1 was about access to reproductive healthcare and abortion services and knowing that that is broadly popular, the people who were supporting the no on Issue 1 didn't focus on the fact that Ohio currently has a contested essentially heartbeat ban in the courts.

They didn't focus on abortion much at all and focused primarily on parental choice, parental access, parental rights, how it could be used to expand to LGBTQ issues and they chose not to focus on abortion much at all because the data again suggests that access to abortion is broadly popular.

Even before the election, Ohio's heartbeat ban, which essentially would ban abortion at about 5-1/2 weeks, about a week and a half after someone finds out that they're pregnant, was already in the courts and so Ohio did allow abortion because it was stuck in the courts and so I think knowing that that messaging was challenging, they took a lot of creative license with how they kind of no on 1 presented it and I think you're gonna see a lot more of that.

It's an issue that nationwide Republicans have really struggled with messaging on because it is something, access to abortion is broadly popular and so if you just come out and say I don't support this at all, you can see what the election results look like and so they're having to walk a really fine line both to appeal to their base, which they need to get through primary elections, but also to try to appeal to those people in the middle who may not agree with them at all on this issue.

- And then we saw that, because as we've all said, two-thirds of that moderate independent group voted yes on Issue 1, so that's, for that message on the no side, that's a tough hill to climb if you're convert some of them, again, we talked about this, there will probably be an effort to nuance everything, to say, well, we won't go absolute.

We'll try and keep creeping toward the middle a little bit and try to do that.

Dr. Miller, you look at that kind of thing, I mean, is this typically how things would play out when it comes to an issue of this stature that we're gonna see this constant back, well, if that didn't work, we'll try this.

Well, that didn't work, we'll try this.

This constant like revolving, as we said, a revolving door of constitutional amendments.

At some point, does that ever end I guess would be the question.

- It's hard to find a comparable issue that had a revolving door kind of let's try again.

The only one that comes to mind that is truly apples to oranges in my view would be casino gambling, right?

That took three, four tries before it passed, but it's just not comparable, so I don't really think there's a road map or a template, but I will say this.

I think the opponents of Issue 1, who want to restrict or ban abortions and let that heartbeat bill be law in Ohio have to tread carefully because if the revolving door is gonna revolve so quickly that there's another reproductive rights issue on the ballot in 2024, yes, there could be voter fatigue, I think that is true, but in 2024, there's gonna be a lot of attention paid to the presidential election and I think it would just drive democratic turnout.

And so I think as Karen has described so thoroughly, the Republicans, the anti-abortion activists in the state are gonna try again and they're gonna try again, but they've got to be a little bit concerned about possible backlash.

- Well, Karen, that raises an interesting issue.

Who really wants this to be on the ballot in 2024 in November.

Do the Republicans really wanna have that up in a presidential year?

Because then people have to make, they have to take a stand on it one way or the other and we that most elected officials, most politicians don't like to take stands, I think, especially in a general election, so who would benefit from it being on the ballot in November, well, assuming it might be on before that.

We joked, I know election night we joked at the poll place, well, see you in December for another election because we seem to have these now every 60 or 90 days, but do the Republicans really want this in the State of Ohio to be on the ballot in 2024 again?

- Well, if they can pass it by December 20th, it could be on the ballot in March and that's going to be a presidential primary where you're gonna have an awful lot of republicans out at the polls because there will be a contested Republican primary for President, mostly like not a contested democratic primary for president.

So if you're trying to reach Republican voters and overturn something the Republicans have opposed, that might be the opportunity to do it, but once again, the question is do you have the voter fatigue and the donor fatigue and legislators would have to get two thirds in the House and Senate to get that before voters, but then they still have to convince voters to vote for it and that's gonna be potentially the challenge here because, again, I think there's a lot of fatigue on talking about this issue and certainly raising the money to come up with a campaign to pass that could be very difficult as well.

- Okay, unfortunately, we're gonna have to leave it there.

You get the last word on it, but probably not the last work on it, obviously.

We'll be back again.

I mean, I guess people have made the assumption, okay, we finally decided this, let's move on but, obviously, that may not be the case, so we'll be back to talk about this again, I'm sure.

You can check us out at wbgu.org.

You can watch us every Thursday night at 8 o'clock on WBGU PBS.

We will see you again next time, good night and good luck.

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