(bright music) - [Announcer] This is a production of PBS Charlotte.

(bright music) - This week on "Unspun", it's our presidential preview.

We'll talk with political pros in both parties about the race that everybody's watching and how it could affect what happens in dozens of other elections across the Carolinas.

Also, why many voters are glad the campaign is finally winding down.

Plus, the top five things political campaigns will do in the last week that they don't want to admit in public.

(theatrical music) In today's America, welcome to the spin game.

Believe me, I know.

I'm Pat McCrory.

When I was governor and mayor, I played the spin game.

I was played by the spin game.

But aren't we all done being spun?

Let's take the spin out of the world we're in, here on "Unspun".

(theatrical music) Good evening, I'm Pat McCrory and welcome to "Unspun", the show that tells you what politicians are thinking, but not saying.

So let's review what we've seen in this election year so far.

A presidential debate that was so bad that top Democrats basically forced the President himself to quit his own campaign.

- There're 40% fewer people coming across the border illegally, and I'm gonna continue to move until we get the total ban.

(stutters) The total initiative relative to what we're gonna do with more Border Patrol and more asylum officers.

- [Jake] President Trump?

- I really don't know what he said at the end of that sentence, but I don't think he knows what he said either.

Look... - A vice president who vaulted just like that to the top of the ticket despite not receiving a single vote in the Democratic presidential primaries.

(audience cheering) - I stand before you today to proudly announce I am now officially the Democratic nominee (audience cheering loudly) for President of the United States.

- And a former president who wasn't even endorsed by his past vice president, and then survived, not one, but two assassination attempts.

- Take a look at what happened- (gun shot fires) - [Secret Service 1] Get down, get down, get down, get down.

(audience screams) (audience cheering loudly) - [Secret Service 2] We gotta move!

- [Secret Service 3] We gotta move!

- [Crowd] USA!

USA!

USA!

USA!

USA!

- And what about the two campaign commercials shown throughout North Carolina that everyone remembers most.

One blaming abortion on women who can't, and I quote, "keep your skirt down", and the other about tax dollars for inmates who want a sex change in prison.

Yeah, it's not politics as usual this election year with Harris and Trump both arguing, "You're a fascist."

"No, you're a fascist."

Or maybe that's just politics as usual, especially in a presidential race that's still too close to call less than a week away from election day.

But after four years of riots erupting in our nation's capital, immigration disrupting our secure borders, and inflation bankrupting our family budgets, don't we deserve better?

Shouldn't we demand better from both political parties?

Instead, we're kind of forced to hold our noses and vote for what many citizens see in this election as the lesser of two evils.

Joining us now on "Unspun" this week are two veteran political consultants with a peek at what both parties are thinking behind the scenes as the campaign comes to a close.

Paul Shumaker is the founder of Capital Communications, helping North Carolina Republicans win five US Senate races in the past 25 years, including the Thom Tillis campaign in 2020, and Brad Crone is president of Campaign Connections in Raleigh, a political consulting firm with over three decades of experience managing Democratic campaigns all over the Southeast.

It's great to have both of you here, Paul and Brad.

So, Paul, let me go first to you.

What's gonna make the difference in the next three days in this campaign with the council state and the presidential campaign?

- Turnout; turnout's gonna be critical for both sides.

And what we're seeing right now is that we're seeing Republican turnout outpacing Democratic turnout a little bit.

But one of the things we all have to remember is our matrix that we're measuring things off of is off the 2020 cycle and we had a bill of the pandemic.

We had over 600,000 absentee ballot requests in 2020.

That's down about 200,000 this cycle.

We still have 300,000 outstanding ballots.

Currently, voter turnout is that 40% Republicans have got a slight advantage, but both parties are moving to parity.

What's going to matter is that all both sides should have bottled the unaffiliated and it's gonna be turnout of the base, and then maximizing turnout of those unaffiliateds who are more aligned with you on your issues and your party.

- Brad, as a Democratic consultant, do you agree with that assessment or do you have something different to say?

- No, I agree.

All focus, Pat, will be on turnout at this point in time.

The next three days are critical for the Democrats because there is some concern in the circles that Democratic performance has been exceeded by Republican turnout for early vote.

The Republicans have listened to the Trump campaign and have embraced early voting, and they have shown it in North Carolina.

Another key area I think that's gonna be critical is what is that unaffiliated voter going to do?

And I was looking at data earlier in the week, there were almost a million unaffiliated votes cast as of Wednesday, and almost a third, a third, a third were breaking Democrat unaffiliated voters who participate in the Democratic primary, unaffiliated voters who participate in the Republican primary, and there were 438,000 unaffiliated voters who don't vote in either party primary and the decision of the election is gonna be based on the performance of those voters.

Another key element is the crossover vote.

And we were talking off camera as we're getting ready for the show, there's not a lot of crossover vote out there between the Democrats and Republicans.

If there's one demographic to watch in the elections, it's gonna be older white Democrats, 50 years old and older, east of 95 and west of 77.

Those are gonna be critical votes.

So, all hands are on deck for the Democrats from the Kamala's campaign all the way down to county commissioner in all 100 counties because the Democrats have been outperformed in early vote.

- So, as a political consultant, Brad, to Democrats, you have three days, three and a half days or so, for the election day.

What do you recommend from Kamala Harris all the way down to the attorney general races, the council of state races to the Democrats, what should they be doing if you're their consultant?

- It's working on base turnout.

It's working on improving African American performance.

It's getting text messages out to 'em, live operator, live volunteer phone calls to voters and to knock on the door.

Drag 'em out, get 'em to the polls, work diligently to count base vote.

- Paul, what about you?

What are you telling your Republican candidates do and what do you recommend that Trump all the way down the line to the North Carolina council states, what should they do?

And for some of 'em, will it make any difference?

- It can make a difference.

It can make a big difference.

This is all, as Brad say, this is about turnout.

It's turnout on the Republican side as well.

We got a couple problems we need to fix.

We need to fix problems in Henderson County and Buncombe County.

Our turnout is down there for Republicans.

It's also down there for Democrats- - Now that's, dude, deliver it quick, that's the areas out West?

That's the areas out West?

- Areas out West.

- Right, right.

- That's correct.

And we know who those voters are, we know their voter history, they're still there.

So we're able to get in touch with them.

We have a lot of different contacts with all boots on the ground.

In fact, I told one of the campaign operations, we need to be focusing on rise to the polls in the western part of North Carolina.

Republicans turnouts down a little bit in Wake County.

It should increase and it should come back up.

But listen, these races are gonna be one within the margins on the down ballot races.

We had a Supreme Court race in 2020 for chief justice that was decided by 400 votes.

And that's how these margins are.

We have 8 million voters, right?

And right now, 40% has already turned out.

We're running behind the 2020 turnout numbers in raw votes by about 360,000.

We clipped 71%, I believe, turnout was in 2020.

We're probably looking at the high 60s, which is sort of a normal turnout presidential year for us.

- Brad Crone, I noticed the Democrats almost every commercial for a statewide office, council state has got one person in those commercial, and that's our Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson.

Is it working, and is that a good strategy?

- I think it is, clearly.

But, I think Pat, you've seen some consolidation in that race in the last two weeks too, in the sense that there apparently some polling numbers.

You saw the Stein campaign shift their messaging back to contrast where they were attacking the Lieutenant Governor on their television ads.

So that shows me that there's consolidation in the race.

And I would say, I would argue that race is probably gonna be a two point.

I do not believe the WRAL Elon College poll that came out and showed Josh Stein with a 15 point lead.

That's just not going to happen.

And the reason for that is that we're not seeing the crossover vote with Republicans willing to switch parties to vote for Josh Stein.

So, that race is gonna be a two point race.

And I would remind you, one point in North Carolina equals 55 to 60,000 votes.

So it'll probably be a hundred thousand, 150,000 vote margin in that race.

But to answer your question, Pat, clearly, the Lieutenant Governor's negatives have not been beneficial for Republican down ballot candidates.

- So Paul, how do the Republicans either admit this or run away from it?

What are they doing in this last week of the campaign?

- In relation to the governor's race, I actually disagree a little bit with Brad.

I do see crossover voting with Republicans for Josh Stein.

Josh Stein is the only candidate getting double digit crossover votes.

And keep in mind, we're talking 12-13%.

And what that means is this is probably gonna be a three to four point race at the end of the day.

But, I see no connection really tying over to the other races.

If you look at the AGs race, if you look at lieutenant governors at the polling data of those, they're polls up races.

They may lean slightly Democratic, but when you look at the turnout, they become polls up races that lean Republican.

I think Republican repose for a very good night if we stay focused on our turnout and continue to do the work over the weekend.

- So, win or lose, what are you gonna tell the candidates on election night?

What should they be prepared for?

Especially with the council state, you know, the treasurer's race, the superintendent race, lieutenant governor's race, the attorney general's race.

As consultants, what are you doing that we don't know about?

- Well, we're tracking the election results just like everybody else.

Sometimes we'll have privy to exit polling data that is done and we're tracking that.

I would say on the council of state, Pat, I think you're gonna look at a mishmash, where Rachel Hunt perhaps wins and Jeff Jackson wins, and then Republican Mike Causey wins, Dave Boliek wins.

Mo Green will win the state superintendent's position.

So I think you're gonna see a mishmash, and that mishmash is gonna be driven by the performance of how the unaffiliated voters voted that ballot box.

It's that one-third of the independent minded unaffiliated voters and how they end up casting their ballots.

- Paul, then, last 30 seconds, are we gonna know all the races on election night or we gonna have to wait several days?

And could there be some recounts?

- I think you could have some recounts possible in some of the down ballot races for the very simple reason, a lot of these races are held in vacuum.

There will be a voter drop off, but they usually follow how the top of the ticket goes.

But there's gonna be some very close races.

This is the new North Carolina, and we all need to realize that neither party has wholesale ownership of the voting electric.

By the 2026 cycle, there're gonna be 30%, 30%, and 40% unaffiliate.

We're only going to become more of a swing state as we move forward into the next decade.

- Paul Shumaker, Brad Crone, it's great to have you on "Unspun" again.

- Great, thank you, Governor.

- Next up, PBS Charlotte's Jeff Sonier takes "Unspun" on the street to find out what's on the minds of actual voters in the presidential election.

- Yeah, in the last few days of early voting before election day, well, a lot of folks lining up to cast their ballots.

Well, they say they're just glad this campaign is finally over.

(light upbeat music) - Yes, I'm tired of text messages and political commercials on TV, so yes I am.

- [Jeff] Do you think a lot of folks feel a little bit of like campaign fatigue right now?

- Absolutely, it's definitely been a lot on everyone.

So yes, I'm sure everyone like me is happy that this is coming to an end.

- [Jeff] Is it worse than other years, different than other years as far as you're concerned?

- Yes, sir.

More concerned this year and more people showing interest.

- Well yeah, I mean, the whole atmosphere of politics is different over the past several years.

It's never been like this before.

- [Jeff] Not in a good way?

- Not in a good way.

No, it's in a bad way.

(theatrical music) - [Jeff] What are you tired of?

- [Voter] The 24/7 coverage, and it's always the same.

You know, it's just over and over and over and over and over.

- The number of commercials, and sometimes the tone of the commercials, you know?

To me, you have to kinda drill down because I don't think we're getting the truth from a lot of the commercials.

- [Tara] Very glad to see the end of the campaign.

- [Jeff] Why is that?

- Just a lot of ads.

Every commercial break is ads.

And just looking forward to getting that over with and getting my vote in.

- [Jeff] Does it feel different this year, this campaign versus other campaigns in the past?

- Yeah, a lot more excitement, I think, especially in recent months.

- But I don't feel like the ads weren't as repulsive as they are now.

I mean, they're beyond civility.

And, you know, we all have to live together no matter who we think should be in office and the ads should reflect that.

(theatrical music) - Yeah, and after all those commercials, the campaign rallies, the debates, the interviews, it's hard to find anyone who hasn't already made up their mind.

That's why there's so many people in line ready to vote now and ready to see the results on election day.

Pat?

- I'll tell you, Jeff, that's such realistic feedback.

So what do you think about the issue?

Email us your comments on this year's election campaign to unspun@wtvi.org.

Or even better, send us a video when we might use it on the air.

(theatrical music) All right, tonight on our "Unspun" Countdown, we've got the top five things political campaigns will be doing during the last week that they won't admit to you, the public.

Let's start out with number five.

Number five, we've talked about this in previous shows.

They're hiring a lot of lawyers, spending hundreds upon hundreds of thousands of dollars on lawyers ready to pounce on any state where the candidates are losing and put in lawsuits.

And they don't wanna tell you about this because they're using your campaign money to do this.

Number four, continuing to raise money even when they don't need it.

Yeah, you keep getting all these texts and letters, "We need your money now."

Let me tell you a little secret about campaigns.

They've already spent all the money they can, they've already bought all the commercials they can.

So whatever money they're collecting from you now, they're gonna use it after they get elected maybe to help get 'em a better position in Congress or something like that, or they're gonna pay off debt.

And if they're gonna pay off debt, maybe they should have never gotten debt to begin with in their campaign.

Number three, they're promising everything to everyone.

You're seeing this on all the commercials, especially the Democratic commercials and Republican commercials for the presidency of the United States.

They're promising you everything regardless of how much it's cost.

It's almost like they're trying to buy your vote with future tax dollars.

It's a time honored tradition in politics during the last week of the campaign.

Promise you everything.

Number two, oh, accuse your opponent of cutting Social Security.

So if you're running for Senate or House or President, just accuse your opponent, especially with an elderly person in the commercial of cutting your Social Security.

It works every time by both Republicans and Democrats.

And number one, the number one thing that both candidates refuse to admit, ignore the deficit for another week.

Listen, neither candidate of the presidential campaign has even brought up the deficit, and they've got only three more days to ignore it and they will succeed.

(theatrical music) All right, PBS Charlotte's Jeff Sonier, with a new campaign haircut, (Jeff laughing) joins us now for "Unspun" One-on-One.

- That was a cheap shot.

That was a political cheap shot.

- Well, it's pretty obvious.

You're trying to look neat for the, - Yeah, getting ready - to vote.

- for my next campaign.

(both laughing) Hey, speaking of campaigns, both candidates, Trump and Harris in North Carolina this week.

Trump's in Rocky Mount, Harris has two campaign rallies; one in Charlotte, one in Raleigh.

But that's what the public's seeing.

What the public's not seeing is ads being pulled by the Harris campaign.

$2 million canceled in North Carolina advertising.

What's going on behind the scenes in the Harris campaign?

- That's usually a sign that the campaign thinks that money can be better spent in another state.

Now, that's probably either gonna be Wisconsin, maybe Georgia.

The bad news would be... or they having to move it to like New Hampshire or New Mexico where it's tighter than they expected.

We won't know until after the election.

But it's still amazing to me how much time the Harris campaign has spent in North Carolina, which means it's still close.

But moving the ad dollars usually means we might give this one to Trump.

- Well, does it mean she's confident of winning, or does it mean she doesn't think spending anymore will help them win?

- I would say the last one.

- [Jeff] Yeah.

- That we're probably need to spend these dollars elsewhere.

There is no loyalty when it comes to campaign dollars.

The Republican Governor Association did this to Robinson probably about four weeks ago.

Just withdrew all their money - [Jeff] Huh.

- from North Carolina.

- So money out usually means you don't think you're gonna win?

- Usually, yeah.

- Yeah.

Former President Obama also in town this week, actually was a little bit at the end of last week, campaigning for Harris.

Let's take a look at a clip, then I have a question for you.

- So whether this election is making you feel excited or scared or hopeful or frustrated or anything in between, do not sit back and hope for the best.

(crowd responds indistinctly) Get off your couch and vote!

(audience cheering) Put down your phone and vote!

- Obviously, it's a turnout rally.

He wants to make sure that the Harris voters are there on election day.

But we're seeing Black turnout in particular in North Carolina in the early voting, down 10% from where it was four years ago.

Why the decline?

- I don't know.

And I don't think they know, but I guarantee you they're working their list right now at every precinct going who has voted and who has not voted, and they're probably sending out buses and transportation to get anyone they can that they most likely will have their vote to the polls.

And, you know, as Paul Shumaker and Brad Crone said earlier in the interview, this is gonna be close.

It's all gonna be dependent on turnout.

Most of the commercials that we're seeing all throughout this coming weekend, it probably won't make any difference.

It's all about getting out to vote.

- Yeah, early voting, already 3 million plus votes cast in North Carolina.

Another couple of surprises.

Republican turnout in the early voting, way up, like over 300,000 more than four years ago.

Democratic turnout down from four years ago.

This is not what either party expected, is it?

- No, although the Republicans have put a lot of money into contract workers sending out notices door to door to do early voting.

So, this is a big turn of events for North Carolina Republicans and national Republicans 'cause Trump used to discourage this type of voting and now he's saying get out to vote early.

And it might really mess up what we think the returns will be on election night, but we still don't know who are they voting for.

- Right, and then that, you know, how many people vote is one thing.

- It's a multimillion dollar question.

- Yeah, exactly.

Talking about turnout, and we've got a poll from Carolina Journal that's got some interesting numbers on.

This is an October poll that just came out a couple of days before the early voting started.

Statewide, both candidates, Trump and Harris still tied, but in Raleigh, Durham, Harris up by 15; Charlotte to Western North Carolina, Trump up by 12; Central North Carolina, even; and at the Coast, Trump up by nine.

So, is this the North Carolina today that you ran in when you were running for governor?

Or are things changing?

Is it different?

- No, this is about what's happening.

The metro areas, in the metro areas of Charlotte, Durham, Raleigh, Greensboro are all blue.

And the coastal areas, red, the Mountains' red except for Asheville and Boone, and the rural areas are red.

And the question's gonna be the in-between areas, the suburbs, what you call the soccer moms.

- [Jeff] Yeah.

- And it's gonna be real interesting about the soccer moms and also the gender gap between men and women.

We've never seen this gender gap like we do.

It's usually only a female gender gap, but now the males are voting differently maybe than their spouses.

It's gonna be very interesting to see next week what the statistics show.

- You asked our two political pros what they thought about Tuesday night if we're gonna know who's gonna win.

What do you think?

Are we gonna know without a doubt, or at least with some certainty who the winner is in the presidential race on Tuesday night?

- Let me tell you this.

Anyone that's predicting the election right now doesn't know.

They're predicting.

It's like gambling on the Super Bowl.

They have no idea, and I don't think anyone has any idea what's gonna happen.

And I've heard several scenarios.

One is, it could be a clean sweep for either party.

But the clean sweep in each state might be one or 2%.

So by numbers, it's a very close race, but by electoral college it might be a landslide.

We don't know because there's so many voters that we're unsure about.

- Last quick question.

You're not a candidate anymore.

Do you miss this last week of the campaign with so much going on?

- No, no.

(Jeff laughs) I especially don't miss the ads going against you during the last week, which, you know, crucify you basically.

They call you everything and anything and you have no time to respond to defend your honor.

And that is very tough on candidates at this point in time.

You throw out the toughest ads at the very end so the opponent doesn't have time to respond.

And then you also promise everything to everybody no matter if it makes sense or not.

And that's what frankly both presidential candidates are doing, as I said in the top five.

The deficit means nothing at this point in time.

- Thanks, Governor.

That's this week's One-on-One.

(theatrical music) - So, if you thought Halloween was scary this week, well, that's just kid stuff.

Our real life political horror show has been playing out for months in the presidential campaign, and Republicans and Democrats both warning us how dangerous their opponent is.

That this time the threat is real and reminding us to vote, or else.

The election year scare tactics are nothing new.

Presidential candidates have been calling each other fascist since Truman ran against Dewey in 1948.

Here's a front page headline from The New York Times that ran this week 76 years ago.

But Truman and Dewey didn't have today's social media at their fingertips.

With no filters and no ground rules, battleground states like North Carolina feel like actual battlegrounds.

In this election with family and friends and fellow workers separating into enemy camps, either talking trash to others online or not talking at all, there's emotion and anger on both sides.

And here's the really scary part.

When all that talk turns into violence, whether it's a sniper at a rally or a riot at the capitol, both parties can blame themselves.

Our biggest fear this year shouldn't be who wins or loses.

It should be the shadowy groups who will use this election to test our commitment to the Constitution.

Will we fall for it?

Will we make excuses for non peaceful protest if our candidate loses?

America has had political upheaval in the past.

In fact, I remember 1968, the tragic assassinations of RFK and MLK, the violent riots, the Vietnam War.

It was traumatic for all of us, but our country survived.

And when the presidency has passed from one office holder to another, it's not always been easy, but we survive that, too.

Politicians always call their election the most important election ever, and that's gonna be the case this election too.

But what really is important is trusting our system and supporting the results no matter who wins.

The day we stop doing that is what should scare us all.

That's the reality as I see it.

I hope you'll come back next week for our election week wrap up.

We'll talk about who won, who lost, and why.

Not just in the presidential race, but all the other elections for governor, council of state, and Congress.

Will the polls be right on election night?

That's at our next "Unspun", where we'll tell you what politicians are thinking, but not saying.

Goodnight, folks.

(light upbeat music) (bright upbeat music) - [Announcer] A production of PBS Charlotte.

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