>> Announcer: MAJOR FUNDING FOR "REPORTERS ROUNDTABLE" WITH DAVID CRUZ IS PROVIDED BY NEW JERSEY REALTORS, THE VOICE FOR REAL ESTATE IN NEW JERSEY.

MORE INFORMATION IS ONLINE AT NJREALTOR.COM.

RWJBARNABAS HEALTH.

LET'S BE HEALTHY TOGETHER.

AND BY NJM INSURANCE GROUP, SERVING THE INSURANCE NEEDS OF NEW JERSEY RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES FOR MORE THAN 100 YEARS.

PROMOTIONAL SUPPORT IS PROVIDED BY "NEW JERSEY BUSINESS MAGAZINE," THE MAGAZINE OF THE NEW JERSEY BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION, REPORTING TO EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE LEADERS IN ALL 21 COUNTIES OF THE GARDEN STATE SINCE 1954.

♪ >>> WELCOME TO "REPORTERS ROUNDTABLE."

I'M DAVID CRUZ.

JOINED THIS WEEK BY A MT.

RUSHMORE OF JOURNALISTIC TALENT, MIKE KELLY IS COLUMNIST WITH THE RECORD AND NORTHJERSEY.COM.

FRITZ IS COLUMNIST WITH INSIDER NJ, WHICH MICHAEL HILL IS THE HOST OF "MORNING EDITION" ON WNYC.

WE ARE JUST A FEW DAYS AWAY FROM THE FINAL DEBATE FOR GOVERNOR, WHICH YOU'RE GOING TO BE ABLE TO SEE RIGHT HERE.

SO, IN ADDITION TO SOME ANALYSIS AND PUNDITRY, WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO GET SOME HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE FROM A MAN WHO'S COVERED EIGHT GOVERNORS AND CONDUCTED WHAT HAS TO BE HUNDREDS OF DEBATES OVER THE FIVE DECADES.

HE'S THE FOUNDER OF THIS PROGRAM IS THE CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT FOR NJ SPOTLIGHT NEWS AND RECIPIENT OF THE NEW JERSEY LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD IN JOURNALISM AT THE INAUGURAL BURN CAIN DINNER LAST MONTH.

MY PLEASURE TO WELCOME MY COLLEAGUE, MICHAEL AARON.

MICHAEL, HOW ARE YOU?

>> HOW ARE YOU?

>> ALL RIGHT.

DID YOU EVER ADD THOSE UP?

>> WELL, IT'S NOT IN THE HUNDREDS BECAUSE THERE ARE ONLY ABOUT TWO OR THREE A YEAR.

I'VE MODERATED A LOT OF DEBATES.

I'VE BEEN ON THE PANEL FOR SOME.

I'VE BEEN THE LEAD MODERATOR FOR OTHERS.

I'VE OFTEN THOUGHT THAT A BETTER DEBATE FORMAT WOULD BE TO JUST PUT THE TWO CANDIDATES OUT THERE WITHOUT ANY MODERATORS AND LET THEM GO AT IT.

I THINK THAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS FALL IN ONE OF THE LEGISLATIVE RACES COURTESY OF NEW JERSEY GLOBE.

I THINK THEY'RE HAVING A MODERATOR-LESS DEBATE COMING UP.

>> INTERESTING.

IS THERE A CANDIDATE WHO STANDS OUT TO YOU OVER ALL THOSE YEARS WHO WAS OR IS AN ESPECIALLY GOOD DEBATER?

>> WELL, FIRST OF ALL, THEY ALL KIND OF BLEND INTO ONE.

I THINK IT'S NINE GOVERNORS I'VE COVERED OR TEN, AND THEIR CHALLENGERS.

BUT WHEN I THOUGHT ABOUT IT, YESTERDAY, I THOUGHT, YOU KNOW, BARBARA BUONO WAS A GOOD DEBATER.

EVERYBODY WROTE HER OFF IN 2013 WHEN SHE RAN AGAINST CHRIS CHRISTIE WHO WAS RUNNING FOR A SECOND TERM, AND HER PARTY HAD ABANDONED HER.

SHE WAS REALLY ON HER OWN.

AND SHE WENT INTO DEBATE WITH CHRISTIE AND HELD HER OWN, TOTALLY, AND IT WAS A SURPRISE TO EVERYBODY THERE.

HER PARTY NEVER DID RALLY ROUND HER, BUT OF ONES THAT STAND OUT, THAT'S ONE.

AND MAYBE IT'S BECAUSE IT'S VERY RECENT.

>> SHE HAD THE FAMOUS LINE, OF COURSE, I TOOK ONE FOR THE TEAM.

I DIDN'T FIND OUT UNTIL LATER THAT THERE WAS NO TEAM.

BUT FOR YOU TO SAY THAT SHE -- >> THAT'S GOOD.

>> THAT WAS HER LINE.

YEAH.

>> YEAH.

NEVER HEARD.

THAT'S A GOOD LINE AND IT'S GOOD OF YOU TO REMEMBER IT.

>> FOR YOU TO SAY THAT SHE HELD HER OWN AGAINST CHRIS CHRISTIE, WHO'S A PRETTY GOOD TALKER, SAYS A LOT ABOUT BARBARA BUONO.

WHAT DO YOU THINK OF CHRIS CHRISTIE AS A DEBATER?

>> I THINK HE WAS AMONG THE BEST.

IF NOT THE BEST.

AS YOU JUST SAID, HE IS A TALKER.

THE PREEMINENT TALKER IN THE LAST TWO DECADES OR SO OF NEW JERSEY POLITICS, TOM KEAN WAS A GOOD DEBATER TOO, AT LEAST THE SECOND TIME OUT IN 1985, HE WAS RUNNING AGAINST PETER SHAPIRO, THE DEMOCRATIC COUNTY EXECUTIVE OF ESSEX, WHO WAS ON HIS PATH TO BE THE FIRST JEWISH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, BUT HE RAN INTO A VERY POPULAR TOM KANE WHO DEBATED WELL BECAUSE HE WAS SO BRIMMING WITH CONFIDENCE AND HAD THE WIND AT HIS BACK AND WON THAT ELECTION BY A RECORD AMOUNT, I BELIEVE.

>> ON THE OTHER HAND, IS THERE SOMEONE WHO WAS JUST NOT VERY GOOD OR HAD A PARTICULAR BAD DEBATE THAT YOU CAN RECALL?

>> I DID THINK ABOUT THIS.

AND I CAN'T REALLY SAY THAT ANYBODY WAS BAD.

THESE PEOPLE HAVE GOTTEN TO A PINNACLE OF SUCCESS LEADING UP TO THESE DEBATES.

YOU DON'T GET TO BE A NOMINEE OF A MAJOR PARTY FOR GOVERNOR IN THIS STATE UNLESS YOU'VE GOT SOMETHING GOING FOR YOU.

SO, SOME OF THEM WERE BETTER THAN OTHERS.

I DON'T KNOW THAT DOUG FORESTER IN 2005 SAID ANYTHING MEMORABLE OR YOUR OLD JERSEY CITY MAYOR IN 2001, BUT THEY WERE SMART GUYS, AND THEY WERE ELOQUENT, EACH IN HIS WAY.

>> I WANT TO BRING IN A COUPLE OF QUESTIONS FROM THE PANEL HERE.

MICHAEL HILL, YOU HAD A QUESTION FOR MICHAEL AARON.

>> MICHAEL, I WANTED TO KNOW, SINCE 1977, THE LAST DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR TO WIN RE-ELECTION WAS BRENDON BURN.

I'M JUST CURIOUS, WHY IS THAT?

WE'RE TALKING ABOUT 44 YEARS AGO, ALMOST 50 YEARS AGO.

>> I THINK IT'S A FLUKE.

I DON'T THINK THERE'S AN OBVIOUS REASON FOR IT.

THE THREE REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS WHO SERVED TWO TERMS, KEAN, WHITMAN, AND CHRISTIE WERE ALL PRETTY SOLID AND PRETTY POPULAR.

THE REASON ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE THAT THERE WERE NO REPEATS WAS THE LUCK OF THE DRAW.

JIM FLORIO RAISED TAXES BY A RECORD AMOUNT AND GOT DRUMMED OUT OF OFFICE IN '93.

JIM McGREAVY SERVED ONE TERM AND THEN HAD TO RESIGN IN SCANDAL.

HE WAS A PRETTY GOOD DEBATER, TOO.

AND THEN THERE WAS THE PERIOD WHERE A DEMOCRAT SUCCEEDED A DEMOCRAT, WHEN DICK COTE SUCCEEDED JIM McGREAVY AND THEN HE WAS SUCCEEDED BY JIM FORSYTH ALL WITHIN THE SPACE OF 14 MONTHS BUT I DON'T THINK YOU CAN READ TOO MUCH INTO IT, OTHER THAN, AS IS OFTEN WRITTEN, NEW JERSEY WILL VOTE REPUBLICAN IN STATEWIDE ELECTIONS EVEN THOUGH IT'S BEEN NEARLY 50 YEARS SINCE IT RE-ELECTED A REPUBLICAN IN A FEDERAL ELECTION.

>> MIKE KELLY, YOU HAD A QUICK QUESTION HERE.

>> OH, SURE, MICHAEL.

A LITTLE BIT OF A CURVE BALL.

IS THIS THE MOST BORING GOVERNOR'S RACE THAT YOU HAVE COVERED?

IT IS TO ME.

>> A MONTH AGO, I WOULD HAVE SAID -- WHAT'D YOU SAY?

>> IT'S THE MOST BORING I'VE SEEN IN A VERY LONG TIME.

>> A MONTH AGO, I WOULD HAVE AGREED WITH YOU.

I THINK IT'S STARTING TO HEAT UP.

I THINK THE FIRST DEBATE THAT THEY HAD TWO WEEKS AGO, WEEK AND A HALF AGO, WAS TERRIFIC.

I THOUGHT EACH MAN WAS ON HIS GAME.

AND IT'S NOT GETTING QUITE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS IT MIGHT, AND YET NOW, IT'S A SINGLE-DIGIT RACE, ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT INDEPENDENT POLL.

YOU KNOW, IN 1993, CHRISTY WHITMAN WAS DOWN BY 20 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER TO JIM FLORIO AND SHE MADE UP 20 POINTS IN A MONTH AND A HALF BY PROMISING A TAX CUT.

NOW, AS DAVID CRUZ POINTED OUT IN A PIECE THIS WEEK, CIATTARELLI IS PLAYING TO THE TAX ISSUE AND IT'S A PROVEN WINNER FOR REPUBLICANS.

IN THE STATE BECAUSE OF THE CHRISTY WHITMAN EXAMPLE.

SO I THINK IT'S STARTING TO HEAT UP IN THE -- I'M SEEING MORE AND MORE TV COMMERCIALS.

THEY'RE PRETTY GOOD.

THEY'RE PRETTY HARD-HITTING.

EVERYTHING'S BEEN ABOVE THE BELT SO FAR, THANKFULLY.

AND SO WE HAVE A RACE.

>> ALL RIGHT.

CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, MICHAEL AARON, GOOD TO SEE YOU, MAN.

THANKS FOR COMING ON AND SPENDING SOME TIME WITH US.

>> THANK YOU, DAVID.

>> ALL RIGHT, PANEL, LET'S PICK UP ON WHERE WE THINK THE RACE STANDS RIGHT NOW.

WE'VE RUN INTO ONE ANOTHER AT A FEW CIATTARELLI EVENTS.

>> YES, WE HAVE.

>> IS THERE A SURGE -- IS THERE A SURGE UNDER WAY IN THAT CAMPAIGN?

CIATTARELLI?

>> I DON'T KNOW IF THERE'S A SURGE, BUT OBVIOUSLY, CIATTARELLI, I THINK, HE GOES AROUND THE STATE.

HE LIKES TO JOKE AND SAY HE'S CAMPAIGNING EIGHT DAYS A WEEK, THAT TYPE OF STUFF, AND HE MAKES A GOOD APPEARANCE EVEN IF PEOPLE DISAGREE WITH HIM.

THEY MAY LIKE HIM.

HE OBVIOUSLY WORKS VERY HARD AND HE'S KIND OF ENERGETIC.

AND YOU KNOW, I THINK MICHAEL AARON MENTIONED THE SINGLE-DIGIT POLL, I GUESS THAT WAS THE STOCKTON POLL, STILL NINE POINTS, AND I DON'T KNOW.

I DON'T THINK IT'S ALL THAT BORING.

I KNOW, AS MIKE KELLY SUGGESTED A WHILE BACK, BUT I MEAN, I THINK IT'S GETTING EXCITING.

I THINK THE DEBATE -- I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE WATCH DEBATE TWO WEEKS AGO, AND IT WAS PRETTY GOOD.

BOTH CANDIDATES STATED THEIR OPINIONS AND HAD A GOOD GIVE AND TAKE, A FEW INSULTS WITH EACH OTHER AND I'M SURE THE DEBATE COMING UP NEXT WEEK IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE PRETTY GOOD AS WELL.

>> YEAH.

THAT MIKE KELLY, HE'S A HARD-BOILED EGG, YOU KNOW?

>> I KNOW.

>> SO, MIKE KELLY -- >> I DON'T KNOW IF THAT'S A COMPLIMENT.

>> I GUESS IT'S A COMPLIMENT.

IT DEPENDS ON THE CONTEXT.

BUT GETTING BACK TO THE WORK AT HAND HERE, MIKE KELLY, REPUBLICANS SEEM TO BE COMING HOME.

AT LEAST THE POLLS SEEM TO SUGGEST SOME ENTHUSIASM IN THE GOP.

ANY EVIDENCE THAT DEMOCRATS ARE AS FIRED UP?

>> I THINK THE NUMBERS ARE GOING TO PLAY HERE IN A BIG WAY.

REPUBLICANS MAY BE COMING HOME, BUT I'M NOT SURE THERE'S ENOUGH OF THEM.

YOU KNOW, I THINK WHAT WE'RE SEEING HERE IN NEW JERSEY IS THE FRUITS OF VERY HARD-WORKING DEMOCRATIC PARTY MEMBERS IN THE COUNTIES IN ORGANIZING THEIR PARTIES AND GETTING THE VOTES ON THE GROUND TO -- AND THE MEMBERS OF THE PARTY ON THE GROUND TO SIGN UP.

NOW, WILL THEY STAY HOME AND SIT ON THEIR HANDS?

I DON'T KNOW.

REPUBLICANS ARE TRADITIONALLY BETTER VOTERS OR MORE LOYAL VOTERS, BUT THE DEMOCRATS HAVE THE NUMBERS RIGHT NOW.

AND I THINK IT'S REALLY MURPHY'S RACE TO LOSE.

AND HE COULD LOSE IT.

I DISAGREE WITH YOU GUYS ABOUT THE DEBATE.

I THOUGHT THE DEBATE WAS KIND OF FLAT IN SOME PLACES.

I THOUGHT MURPHY LOOKED REALLY INEPT AT TIMES AND I THOUGHT CIATTARELLI DID A TERRIFIC JOB FOR A GUY WHO'S, YOU KNOW, REALLY RUNNING FROM BEHIND, I THOUGHT HE DID A TERRIFIC JOB.

HE'S GOT A LOT OF ENERGY.

HE LOOKED GOOD.

HE SPOKE IN VERY SIMPLE, CLEAR SENTENCES.

LOOK AT MURPHY WITH THE COLLAR OUT AND THE TIE, YOU KNOW, ASKEW.

I MEAN, I THINK THEY NEED A MAKEOVER FOR PHIL MURPHY, AND THAT MAY TAKE A WHILE.

I DON'T KNOW.

BUT I JUST DON'T THINK HE SEEMED ORGANIZED.

AND I THINK HE BETTER GET HIS A-GAME TO THE NEXT DEBATE OR ELSE CIATTARELLI, I THINK, COULD GAIN ON HIM.

>> MICHAEL HILL WILL BE PART OF THE PANEL AT TUESDAY'S DEBATE.

MICHAEL, I FEEL LIKE I SEE YOU EVERY DAY NOW AT THESE DEBATE PREP MEETINGS.

IS TUESDAY MORE IMPORTANT FOR JACK CIATTARELLI THAN IT IS FOR PHIL MURPHY?

OR DOES PHIL MURPHY NEED A BETTER PERFORMANCE AS KELLY JUST SUGGESTED?

>> I AGREE WITH MIKE ON THAT, THE WAY THE GOVERNOR LOOKED IN THAT LAST DEBATE VERSUS HOW CIATTARELLI LOOKED.

CIATTARELLI ALMOST LOOKED, I DON'T WANT TO SAY THE PHRASE, HE ALMOST LOOKED PRESIDENTIAL TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, STANDING NEXT TO MURPHY IN THAT DEBATE, AND YOU KNOW, WITH THE TIE CROOKED AND MURPHY SEEMED DISCOLORED TO ME, HIS FACE SEEMED RED, THE SHIRT COLLAR STICKING UP, JUST LOOKED D DISHEVELED TO A CERTAIN EXTENT.

FOR A TEAM THAT SUPPORTS THE GOVERNOR AND TAKES CARE OF A LOT OF THINGS, I DIDN'T EXPECT THAT.

I THINK THIS DEBATE IS -- I THINK THE GOVERNOR IS DUE A REBOUND, CERTAINLY ON HIS APPEARANCE, AND I THINK HE WILL GIVE IT TO CIATTARELLI IN THIS DEBATE.

SKP AND I THINK VICE VERSA TOO.

CIATTARELLI IS ALMOST A GIFTED PUBLIC SPEAKER.

I'VE SEEN HIM SPEAK BEFORE, NO NOTES, NO ANYTHING, AND HE CAN ALMOST STAND THERE AND TALK ABOUT ANYTHING, AND IN A SMART AND RELEVANT WAY AS WELL.

SO, HE'S A -- MURPHY HAS HIS HANDS FULL, DEBATE-WISE, WITH CIATTARELLI AND ON THE STAGE LIKE THAT.

BUT I ALSO AGREE WITH MIKE THAT IN TERMS OF THE NUMBERS, IT'S A BIG ADVANTAGE FOR MURPHY.

IF MURPHY CAN GET THE VOTE OUT AND INSPIRE THE BASE AND THE DEMOCRATS.

>> THERE'S SOMETHING I'D LIKE TO -- NO, THERE'S SOMETHING I'D LIKE TO JUMP IN ABOUT THE NUMBERS.

WE KNOW NOW THAT THE DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE IN THE STATE IS ALMOST 1.1 MILLION.

JUST FOR FUN, I LOOKED BACK IN '09 WHEN CHRIS CHRISTIE WON.

THE DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE WAS ABOUT 700,000.

SO, I MEAN, THINK ABOUT IT.

IN THE LAST 12 YEARS, THE DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE IN THE STATE HAS GROWN FROM 700,000 TO 1.1 MILLION, BY 400,000 VOTES AND I THINK THAT'S THE PROBLEM WITH JACK.

I THINK REPUBLICANS ARE MORE ENTHUSIASTIC, RIGHT?

THEY'RE ALWAYS MORE ENTHUSIASTIC IF YOU WANT TO GET SOMEBODY OUT.

JUST LIKE DEMOCRATS WERE ENTHUSIASTIC TO GET OUT DONALD TRUMP LAST YEAR.

SO, YOU KNOW, REPUBLICANS ARE MUCH MORE ENTHUSIASTIC, BUT THAT'S A BIG -- THAT'S A VERY WIDE GAP AND IT'S TOUGH TO OVERCOME.

THAT'S JACK'S CHALLENGE.

>> THE GOVERNOR HAS TRIED TO BRING UP DONALD TRUMP AS MUCH AS HE CAN AT THE DEBATE LAST MONTH, CIATTARELLI HAD A GREAT LINE ABOUT THE DRINKING GAME AND DONALD TRUMP, BUT HOW MUCH OF A FACTOR HAS HE BEEN, DO YOU THINK, MIKE KELLY, DONALD TRUMP ON THIS RACE?

>> I THINK -- HE'S LIKE -- HE'S LIKE ONE OF THOSE SHAKESPEARIAN GHOSTS THAT COMES ON THE STAGE AND WE DON'T KNOW WHAT TO MAKE OF IM.

I THINK PHIL MURPHY HAS USED UP THE DONALD TRUMP QUOTIENT RIGHT NOW AND HE SHOULD MOVE ON.

AND HE'S REALLY GOT TO START, I THINK, TALKING IN VERY HARD TERMS ABOUT HOW HE'S GOING TO MAKE THE STATE BETTER.

IN THE LAST DEBATE, I THINK CIATTARELLI DID A TERRIFIC JOB IN SINGLING OUT MURPHY ON A COUPLE OF POINTS.

ONE OF WHICH WAS THE FACT THAT, YOU KNOW, THE PENNSYLVANIA AUTHORITIES GOT THEIR ACT TOGETHER WITH THE MOST RECENT HURRICANE PREPARATION 12 HOURS BEFORE NEW JERSEY HAD A MEETING, AND I THOUGHT PHIL MURPHY REALLY STUMBLED ON THAT QUESTION BADLY, AND HE LOOKED INEPT, QUITE FRANKLY.

I ALSO THINK MURPHY'S GOT TO TALK MORE ABOUT TAXES, AND I THINK CIATTARELLI'S STRATEGY TO LOWER TAXES, WHILE IT MAY NOT WORK, I MEAN, I THINK WE CAN -- WE CAN HAVE A WHOLE PROGRAM ON NEW JERSEY FINANCES AND WHAT A MESS THEY ARE, BUT I REALLY THINK TAXES RESONATE WITH MIDDLE CLASS VOTERS HERE IN NEW JERSEY, AND I DON'T THINK MURPHY HAS REALLY EXPLAINED VERY WELL WHY HE THINKS THAT HE WANTS TO RAISE THEM.

I KNOW HE WANTS TO RAISE THEM ON THE WEALTHY MEMBERS OF OUR STATE, AND I UNDERSTAND THAT.

BUT I JUST THINK HE'S GOT TO EXPLAIN HIMSELF BETTER.

AND THESE MARKETING SLOGANS, YOU KNOW, LIKE, MOVING FORWARD AND THIS KIND OF THING, IT REALLY STRIKES ME AS SOMETHING OUT OF WALL STREET.

I THINK NEW JERSEY VOTERS IN THESE LAST FEW WEEKENDS ARE GOING TO WANT SOMETHING THAT'S REALLY CONCRETE AND THAT'S WHAT I'M GOING TO BE LOOKING FOR IN THIS DEBATE.

>> DAVID, I WOULD -- >> MICHAEL HILL -- >> I WOULD BE SURPRISED IF MURPHY ABANDONS THAT TRUMP ATTACK, REMINDING PEOPLE THAT CIATTARELLI EMBRACES TRUMP TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, ONLY BECAUSE IT PROVED TO BE QUITE SUCCESSFUL IN CALIFORNIA.

NEW JERSEY IS NO CALIFORNIA, CALIFORNIA IS NO JERSEY, BUT GOVERNOR NEWSOM THERE RUNNING AGAINST LARRY ELDER JUST KEPT HAMMERING IT AND HAMMERING IT, REMINDING PEOPLE THAT THIS GUY, TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, IS A TRUMP CLONE AND I THINK MURPHY HAS -- I DON'T KNOW IF THE POLLS REFLECT THAT IT'S NOT SUCCESSFUL, BUT THE RACE TYPICALLY ANYWAY GETS CLOSE THE CLOSER -- >> LET ME ASK YOU ALL WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT THE IMPACT OF ONE DEBATE AND WHAT IT CAN HAVE ON IN THE ELECTION.

FRED, CAN ONE DEBATE REALLY SWAY VOTERS THAT MUCH?

CAN A KNOCKOUT BY JACK CIATTARELLI NEXT TUESDAY MAKE UP FOR NINE POINTS IN THE POLLS?

>> WELL, I THINK, YES, A KNOCKOUT, BUT KNOCKOUTS AREN'T DIFFICULT.

I THINK WHEN MICHAEL AARON SAID A FEW MINUTES AGO THAT MOST PEOPLE FORGET WHO RUNS FOR GOVERNOR, THEY HAVE SOMETHING GOING FOR THEM.

SO, I DON'T THINK IT'S GOING TO BE A KNOCKOUT.

SO, I THINK, YOU KNOW HOW DEBATES ARE.

REPUBLICANS THINK THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE WON, DEMOCRATS THINK THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE WON AND UNLESS SOMEONE SAYS SOMETHING THAT'S REALLY STUPID, I DON'T THINK -- YOU DON'T HAVE A KNOCKOUT AND THAT DID NOT HAPPEN LAST TIME.

WE'LL SEE IF IT HAPPENS THIS TIME.

>> I'M GOING TO -- >> I THINK THIS IS NECESSARY WHERE RICHARD NIXON WAS GOING UP AGAINST SENATOR KENNEDY AND THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN THE WAY NIXON LOOKED, IT KIND OF KNOCKED HIM OUT OF THE BOX IN TERMS OF THE ELECTION.

BUT IN THIS INSTANCE, IF YOU'RE THE SITTING GOVERNOR, YOU'VE BEEN IN OFFICE FOR -- AND THIS GOES BACK TO MIKE KELLY'S POINT.

YOU'RE THE SITTING GOVERNOR FOR FOUR YEARS, AND YOU GET ON STAGE AND YOU DON'T LOOK SELF-ASSURED, YOU DON'T LOOK LIKE YOU HAVE YOUR ACT TOGETHER, EVEN YOUR APPEARANCE, THAT'S AN OPPORTUNITY FOR YOUR CHALLENGER.

I DON'T CARE WHO THE CHALLENGER IS.

BUT IT'S A MAJOR OPPORTUNITY.

BECAUSE THESE IMAGES CAN BE LASTING.

>> I DON'T THINK HIS APPEARANCE IS ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT.

I DON'T KNOW.

IT'S NOT AS IF HE WAS WEARING A RIPPED T-SHIRT.

MAYBE HIS TIE WAS -- OR HIS COLLAR WAS UP.

I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE NOTICED THAT.

MAYBE I'M WRONG.

I DON'T THINK ANYONE REALLY CARES ABOUT THAT.

>> I GOT TO TELL YOU, I THINK THAT HIS COLLAR STANDING UP, A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE ROOM WHERE WE WERE NOTICED IT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY.

>> OKAY.

>> SO, I MEAN, I GUESS IT'S A LITTLE THING IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF, YOU KNOW, THE CONTENT OF SOMEONE'S CHARACTER AND THE CONTENT OF THEIR BRAIN, BUT IT'S SOMETHING THAT EVERYBODY IN THE ROOM WHERE WE WERE NOTICED.

LET ME ASK YOU GUYS IF YOU THINK THAT THE PUBLIC AT LARGE, THAT IS, THOSE WHO ARE NOT IMMEDIATE PARTISANS, HAVE THEY BEGUN TO ENGAGE YET?

ANY SIGN OF THAT?

MICHAEL HILL?

>> I WOULD SAY -- I WOULD SAY, NO.

BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, YOU ASKED MICHAEL AARON ABOUT OR SOMEONE BROUGHT UP THIS BEING A BORING RACE, AND I DON'T KNOW IF IT'S -- IF THE PUBLIC PERCEIVES IT THAT WAY.

BUT YOU KNOW, I'VE SEEN CAMPAIGN SIGNS OUT FOR MURPHY HERE AND THERE, AND I'VE SEEN SOME FOR CIATTARELLI FOR THE MOST PART, BUT IT'S A GOVERNOR'S RACE, AND IT MAKES ME WONDER IF -- WE'LL FIND OUT ONCE THE BALLOTS ARE COUNTED, IF DEMOCRATS TO A CERTAIN EXTENT ARE A LITTLE ASLEEP ON THIS, THINKING THAT THIS GUY IS AN INCUMBENT AND HE'S GOING TO WIN.

>> YOU KNOW, I AGREE, MICHAEL.

LET ME JUST JUMP IN HERE.

I THINK THIS DEBATE IS GOING TO BE KEY, NOT SO MUCH FOR THE UNAFFILIATED VOTERS BUT IT'S GOING TO BE FOR THE PARTY BASE.

AND MURPHY HAS A BIG LEAD, DEMOCRATS HAVE A BIG LEAD IN THE BASE, AS FRED POINTED OUT.

BUT IF THAT BASE ISN'T ENERGIZED OR IF THE BASE IS SITTING AT HOME, AS MICHAEL HILL POINTS OUT, AND JUST ASSUMING, WELL, IT'S GOING TO BE A DEMOCRATIC WIN ANYWAY.

IT'S NO BIG DEAL.

THAT COULD BE A TURNING POINT.

BUT I THINK MAKING UP NINE POINTS WILL BE TOUGH.

I DON'T THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE A KNOCKOUT BLOW.

MAYBE IF MURPHY WEARS A RIPPED T-SHIRT, MAYBE THERE WILL BE A KNOCKOUT BLOW, I DON'T KNOW, BUT I REALLY -- I REALLY THINK, IF I MIGHT FINISH HERE, I REALLY THINK THAT THIS DEBATE IS GOING TO BE MORE IMPORTANT FOR THE PARTY FAITHFUL THAN FOR THE INDEPENDENT VOTERS.

>> ALL RIGHT.

LAST LOOK FROM EACH OF YOU REALLY QUICKLY.

MICHAEL HILL, WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO BE LOOKING FOR ON TUESDAY?

>> I'M GOING TO SEE IF -- I'M NOT SURE HOW MURPHY WILL REBOUND IN APPEARANCE AND IN PERFORMANCE AND WHAT HE SAYS AND YOU KNOW, AND I THINK MIKE KELLY RAISED A REALLY GOOD POINT ABOUT, YOU KNOW, THE AFFORDABILITY ISSUE, NOT JUST HOUSING AFFORDABILITY, BUT THE AFFORDABILITY IN NEW JERSEY IS HUGE.

AND I WANT TO -- I'M LOOKING TO SEE HOW THE GOVERNOR CAN ADDRESS THIS IN THIS DEBATE, BECAUSE NEW JERSEY IS A VERY EXPENSIVE PLACE TO LIVE.

>> ALL RIGHT, FRED, WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO BE LOOKING FOR?

>> I THINK BASICALLY THE SAME THING.

I THINK JACK WILL STILL BE AGGRESSIVE.

HE'LL BE THE AGGRESSOR IN THE DEBATE, AND LET'S SEE HOW MURPHY, QUOTE S, UNQUOTE, DEFEN HIMSELF.

THAT'S BASICALLY IT.

>> MIKE KELLY, YOUR THOUGHTS.

>> I'LL BE LOOKING FOR TWO THINGS.

WHAT IS CIATTARELLI GOING TO SAY ABOUT THE TAX ISSUE AND WHETHER HE WANTS TO LOWER THOSE TAXES?

AND SECONDARILY, I REALLY THINK MURPHY NEEDS TO COME IN WITH A SLIGHTLY ALTERED GAME PLAN, PERHAPS A SURPRISE ANNOUNCEMENT OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.

I JUST DON'T THINK IF HE -- IF HE RELIES ON THE SAME SCRIPTED LINES THAT HE WAS USING IN THE LAST DEBATE, I THINK CIATTARELLI WILL EAT HIM ALIVE.

SO, LET'S SEE WHAT KIND OF GAME MURPHY BRINGS.

AND YEAH, HE BETTER HAVE A BETTER TIE ON.

LET'S BE HONEST HERE.

HE NEEDS TO LOOK THE PART, YOU KNOW?

MICHAEL HILL, I'M LOOKING AT YOUR TIE.

>> FRITZ, I KNOW YOU GET AROUND THE STATE A LOT.

LOOKING AT LOCAL ELECTIONS.

I GOT 30 SECONDS.

A RACE OR TWO THAT YOU'RE GOING TO BE LOOKING AT THAT SHOULD BE OF INTEREST.

>> LD-6, BASICALLY A DEMOCRATIC DISTRICT BUT REPUBLICAN SENATOR BATEMAN IS RETIRING AND MICHAEL, WHO HAD BEEN IN CONGRESS 20 YEARS AGO, IS TRYING TO REPLACE HIM.

THAT'S INTERESTING TO WATCH.

AND SO IS RICHARD KELLY OF BRIDGEGATE FAME, THE COUNTY CLERK IN BERGEN COUNTY.

THAT'S GOING TO BE INTERESTING TO WATCH TOO.

>> RECASTING HERSELF AS AFTER A WOMAN OF THE PEOPLE.

THAT IS GOING TO BE AN INTERESTING RACE TO WATCH.

THAT'S GOING FOOD IT FOR "ROUNDTABLE" FOR THIS WEEK.

THANKS TO OUR GUESTS, MICHAEL AARON, AND TO OUR PANEL, MIKE KELLY, MICHAEL HILL, AND FRED.

DON'T FORGET OUR BIG DEBATE, LIVE, TUESDAY OCTOBER 12th AT 8:00 P.M.

FOLLOWED BY A LIVE POST-DEBATE ONLINE EDITION OF "REPORTERS ROUNDTABLE" WITH LIVE LOOKS INTO THE SPIN ROOM, SPECIAL GUESTS, AND FELLOW JOURNALISTS.

IT ALL STARTS AT 8:00 P.M. ON TUESDAY, OCTOBER 12th.

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER, @DAVIDCRUZNJ, AND BE SURE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE YOUTUBE CHANNEL TO GET MORE "CHAT BOX," NJ BUSINESS BEAT, AND NJ SPOTLIGHT NEWS WITH BRIANA VANNOZZI.

FOR THE ENTIRE CREW OVER HERE, I'M DAVID CRUZ.

THANKS FOR WATCHING.

WE'LL SEE YOU AT THE DEBATE ON TUESDAY.

>> Announcer: MAJOR FUNDING FOR "REPORTERS ROUNDTABLE" WITH DAVID CRUZ IS PROVIDED BY NEW JERSEY REALTORS, THE VOICE FOR REAL ESTATE IN NEW JERSEY.

MORE INFORMATION IS ONLINE AT NJREALTOR.COM.

RWJBARNABAS HEALTH.

LET'S BE HEALTHY TOGETHER.

AND BY NJM INSURANCE GROUP, SERVING THE INSURANCE NEEDS OF NEW JERSEY RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES FOR MORE THAN 100 YEARS.

PROMOTIONAL SUPPORT IS PROVIDED BY "NEW JERSEY BUSINESS MAGAZINE," THE MAGAZINE OF THE NEW JERSEY BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION, REPORTING TO EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE LEADERS IN ALL 21 COUNTIES OF THE GARDEN STATE SINCE 1954.

--Captions by VITAC -- www.vitac.com