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♪ David: Hey, everybody, welcome to "Chat Box."

I am David Cruise.

It all started with the indictment of Senator Bob Menendez in September.

It hit a crescendo with the election of Andy Kim as the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate.

What a strange trip it has been but it has -- it is not over yet.

We will try to put it out with Chris Russell, Republican strategist with checkmate strategies, and Roy Jones, democratic state committee chairman and partner at 1868 public relations.

Good to see you both.

Welcome.

>> Good to see you guys.

>> Great to see you both.

It has been a while.

David: Yes, it's true.

It has been a roller coaster of a year.

Before we get into some of these specific races, let me ask each of you if there is an overriding message to be taken away from this week's results.

Leroy: there has been a lot of hoopla about the Democratic lines this past primary election, particularly for Democrats.

What a difference a line makes.

Absolutely none.

I have said that from day one.

Never been intimidated by the change in the ballot.

If you have good candidates, you have good organization, you have a strategic plan, then the results are what they were on Tuesday.

David: Chris, the line rules.

The party rules, not the line.

Chris: I don't know if I would go that far.

Leroy is right that in the organizations did their job, both on the Democratic side and the entire state, and on the Republican side in the handful of places that don't have a line.

Their preferred candidate still prevails.

In that sense, it was more of the same.

But I do think, and I was having this conversation with someone the other day that Leroy and I both know, and we were disagreeing about whether this was the best election to judge this by, a presidential election uncontested on both sides.

What will happen in 2025 is probably more of a good barometer about whether this is a big seismic change like a lot of us thought it might be or nothing.

I think the jury is still out.

Who knows what is going to happen in the courts and legislature between now and next primary?

David: Because most of these -- all of these candidates had already filed their nominating petitions before the decision came out about the line, so you really cannot tell.

You are right on that.

Chairman, has the county organization figured out how to compensate for the eventual loss of the line as a tool?

Or are you still working on that?

Leroy: no.

We have used the line as a marketing campaign narrative.

But it always goes back to candidates.

We are going to tweak the slogan approach, where we will focus on identifying candidates with the county organization and raising the profile of candidates that are party backed candidates throughout the process.

We are going to be sharply focused on creating a different narrative, so to speak.

But the approach is still the same.

We are going to be using the same strategies we have used in the past.

Our canvas approach is going to be more tailored to candidates and organizations.

Our digital approach, full-time male is always -- full time mail is always going to be a strategy we use going forward.

They're going to be some little tweaks, but the whole thrust of how we move and elect our candidates hasn't changed to a large degree.

David: Chris, in your business, you can be with the party one cycle here, against it in another cycle over there.

How does the death of the line, assuming that is what is going to happen, how does it affect the way you approach elections?

Chris: I think Leroy is 100% right that candidates still matter more than everything.

A lot of people would blame the presence of the line for their inability to win an election, they missed the big picture, which is that you stop to be a good candidate, raise money, organize, have a message people buy into.

In some ways, it removes an excuse.

For me and what we do, the line and the backing of the party, there has always been an advantage.

What lack of line may lead to our more candidates, more spending, more competition in some regards, but it will also weed out candidates were not very good.

If the line is not there and you cannot compete with other candidates and cannot raise money and articulate a message, whether you have a line or not, you are going to lose.

In that sense, ultimately the candidates and campaigns still reigned supreme in that regard.

David: Are we going to see more name candidates of people who have particularly high name recognition, who may or may not have been involved in politics prior to that?

Are we going to see more celebrity candidates?

Chris: I'm sorry.

Go ahead, Leroy.

Leroy: That is one of the fears in this.

You can probably get a candidate who has the resources to self fund that would dwarf other candidates who fund traditionally, and that is one of the downsides of this whole process.

However, I go back to the strength of the organization and how you create the narrative, how you articulate the narrative, how you get that to the voters.

Candidates today going forward are going to have to begin to have that name recognition.

And in legislative districts and congressional districts, statewide candidates, County candidates, they are going to have to have some means to have an identification with voters.

Voters are going to have to know what they've done, how they have served them, and that gets back to quality candidates.

If you are doing that, you're connecting with your voters, then ultimately you have a form for victory.

Chris: We are agreeing way too much.

David: I am going to have to mix it up a little bit.

Chris: This is common sense and the data backs this up, too.

Self funding candidates have always been able to bend the rules.

They have been able to infiltrate or expand the organizations to be with them.

A self funding candidate always has an advantage when it comes to money.

But I think in this case, Leroy's second point is really important in that name ID, the incumbents in this regard on both side of the aisle who are lazy and do nothing to get themselves known and to be active are going to find themselves without the line should not have that crutch anymore.

I think it is something that could benefit the entire system by having people come in who are willing to do the work.

David: Let's see if I can get you to disagree on this.

Chairman, do Democrats have a Menendez problem?

Chris: I think they do have a Menendez problem.

If he is going to run as a third party, and really run, and this is not a ruse to raise legal defend money, he will take votes away from Andy Kim.

I don't know if it is significant enough to win just yet.

Part of that Otis falls on Curtis Bashaw that puts him in position.

But he is going to impact the race if he is in it for rail and is willing to spend the money in an attempt to get votes, not an attempt to stay relevant.

It certainly gives hope to Bashaw that there is trouble in paradise on the others IP.

David: Do you have a Menendez problem?

Leroy: I think you failed on this one because I have to agree with Chris.

If Menendez is real about this, that is a lot to be concerned with this Democrat.

And I believe other Democrats across the state.

If that Israel, -- if that is real, we have to pay close attention to the dynamic that people.

Curtis Bashaw Kim Gardner attention.

Andy Kim has been that reformer.

There has been an opportunity for him to introduce himself differently in this general election to counties that perhaps there was not an intense primary presence.

If Menendez is real, this election can be a different dynamic for us all.

David: Let me ask you this.

How has it been getting along with Andy Kim?

He wasn't exactly embraced by a lot of the particularly larger County Democratic organizations.

In a couple of Democrats this week said he is not trying too hard to endear himself to the establishment.

How has it been getting along with Andy Kim?

I know you were not hugging it out at the beginning of this contest.

Leroy: I have had no problems with Andy Kim personally.

I do think there is some relevance to his ability to communicate more.

I wish there had been a bigger presence from him at least in my county.

I am not quite sure how that has played out in other counties.

Some of the northern counties perhaps feel the same way that I do.

This is a moment that he is going to decide how he is going to engage with party establishment going forward.

I think it is going to be necessary for him to do that, if he is going to be successful in his upcoming general election.

To be determined, remains to be seen.

David: Bridges to be built.

Chris, let me ask you this.

Looking at the landscape after the results of this week, our Democrats weekend -- are Democrats weakened>?

Chris: I think Joe Biden is weekend.

I think Joe Biden is a terrible candidate.

He is a very weakened position.

There is little enthusiasm across the base.

Say what you want about trauma, there is incredible enthusiasm for Trump across his base.

When you have a candidate like Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, you have Andy Kim, who has Leroy just politely articulated, is not necessarily a team player.

He is about Andy Kim and always has been.

That is not a party that is very cohesive.

They have their sitting U.S.

Senator in a courtroom fighting to stay at a jail.

The Democratic Party in the state is in a bit of a weakened position.

How that trickles down, there is a lot of time between now and the end of the election.

We are in for a bumpy ride.

I think there is opportunity for Bashaw given that he is so unique is a candidate.

He is not typical.

He is hard to pigeonhole as a typical Republican, and I think it is a fascinating contrast.

It still comes down to Bashaw has to run a race that gets him in the game to the point where it looks like a real race.

David: Chairman, I am going to give you the last word.

Is the GOP stronger?

Leroy: I don't think so.

It is difficult, particularly in New Jersey, when the guy who leads your ticket is a convicted felon.

That is something that is looming large.

Curtis is going to have a difficult time distancing himself from Donald Trump.

I think Joe Biden will carry New Jersey, as he has in the past.

What happens in other parts of the country remains to be seen.

I think this narrative of the leading Republican presidential candidate, the only candidate at this point, is a convicted felon , is looking to be sentenced on July 11, going into a Republican national convention on July 16.

It leaves a lot to be desired and a lot to be considered when you are determining who is going to be the leader of the free world when they already are a convicted felon.

David: Chairman, thanks for taking the last word and running with it.

Chris Russell, Leroy Jones, good to see you both.

We will pick this up in the fall.

If you traveled through New York's Penn Station, you know the place has been a particular mess the past few weeks, including this week.

And that is not all.

We are heading into the summer.

Colleen Wilson, NorthJersey.com.

They cover transportation and transit.

We know them collectively as Wilson and Higgs.

Welcome to you both.

>> Thanks for having us.

David: This summer going to be a travel nightmare?

Colleen: I think there is a good chance of that, yes.

We are starting to see a growing number of problems in that 10 mile range between New York Penn Station and Newark Penn Station.

Signal issues, wires coming down, other mechanical issues from trains.

It just seems to be growing, and getting that work done is easier said than done.

David: Larry, travel nightmare?

Larry: We have a lot of factors working against us.

First of all, it is age.

Not to sound ageist, but we are dealing with the last report I got that dates back to the 1940's.

These are the wires that are overhead that transport electricity to the trains.

When they go down, it is like you pull the plug and it stops going.

That means the air-conditioning conditioning stops inside and your passengers start to swelter.

That is stuck, it is dead in the water.

That is a problem right there.

The other issue is that the fleet is very old, except for the double-decker's.

Even the newest double-deckers are hitting their 20th anniversary.

So they use are going to need -- so they are going to need to be rebuilt.

They promised there will be replacements by the end of the year, but that is a long process.

You don't go to a train lot and pick out new railcars and have the trains drop them off.

Then you have the common fleet, which is also very old.

The only reason they still run is there was foresight from past management to have those things rebuilt in 2000.

In all, this is a recipe for problems.

David: We are talking about Penn Station, and that is Amtrak as well as NJ transit.

Amtrak has been particularly screwed up the last couple of weeks and months.

Year, really.

They got a strong letter from the governor.

What is the formal relationship, and why is the governor of New Jersey sending a strong letter to the federal folks who run Amtrak, Colleen?

Colleen: The big problem is, the governor oversees New Jersey transit, and they are the biggest tenant on the tracks and at Penn Station, and the assets like the bridge and portal bridge, all of which are owned, maintained, operated by Amtrak.

So when you are paying $100 million a year like the state of New Jersey is to run a lot of trains, hundreds of trains a day on those tracks, and they are encountering problems, the governor wants to get involved and make sure the state taxpayer money is getting good use and is being prioritized in projects that are going to improve this urgent -- the service.

President of New Jersey transit has said repeatedly they are no longer at war with Amtrak.

But like the previous administration where there were payments withheld, threatening to try to recoup payments, as you recall from 2017.

So this is not quite at that level.

It appears they are having more conversations.

There's a lot more communication.

It is tough talk, but it is talk and productive.

It is going to be a rough ride for commuters who have had to wait years and decades for these assets to be replaced, as Larry said.

They still have a very long time to wait, more than a decade, for a lot of these projects to really come to fruition.

David: I think a lot of people would be surprised to learn that NJ Transit is just a tenant for Amtrak.

The governor always says, I am going to fix New Jersey transit or it is going to kill me.

The governor is still kicking.

Is there any reason to think this is going to get any better anytime soon-ish?

Larry: What has happened so far is last week Kevin Corbin announced Amtrak and NJ Transit have formed a committee to handle these things better when they happen.

That is basically two fashions.

One will be to get essential workers out on site to fix these problems quicker when they happen.

You are talking about ancient infrastructure, you are talking about -- for example, yesterday's problem was a track problem.

Rails are hundreds of pounds.

It is not like you can send five guys out there in a pickup truck and fix it.

You get equipment out on site.

It is an involved process.

There is no AAA for Amtrak.

At least this is a start.

The other side is better communication, and that is something we hear from commuters all the time, that they want to know almost as soon as possible so they can say, am I going to sweat it out in Penn Station and wait for service to come back, or am I going to detour through the Port Authority bus terminal to the ferry or Hoboken terminal to catch one of those trains that bypasses Amtrak?

David: Let's talk congestion pricing.

What happened this week with that, and why did that happen?

Colleen: What happened was a shock, I think, to most.

The governor of New York, who has basically become one of if not the biggest spokesperson for the congestion pricing program, which was planning to toll drivers coming into midtown Manhattan, she pulled out the rug from under that program and directed the NTA to stop and halt congestion pricing, put it on an indefinite pause.

Just weeks ago, she was in Ireland publicly boasting about the project and about being the first U.S. city to implement such a program.

To pull a complete about-face with 25 days to go before its implementation after hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent to put up technology and the infrastructure and inform the public.

The number of meetings and times.

It was baffling.

People were reeling from that, especially because it got leaked through politic--through Politico and New York Times.

David: Is it the economic impact in midtown Manhattan, or the political impact of Democrats in suburban districts?

Larry: It is kind of interesting because in her quoted message, and I think a lot is to be read into how this basically happened, that there was a prerecorded message, no press conference after the articles dropped.

One of the things she mentioned was her fear of crippling or harming the recovery in midtown Manhattan, the central business district.

The partnership for New York City, they had their most recent survey in May and basically included -- concluded occupancy is at 72% of pre-COVID.

She does not want to harm that.

She mentioned if congestion pricing happens, commuters have the opportunity to say to their bosses, I don't want to work in the office, I want to be all remote, and that will have a ripple effect on commercial real estate, which has a 20% vacancy rates, and the restaurants and drycleaners.

She also checked tourism, specifically from New Jersey, the outer boroughs and upper counties of people who come in on the weekends for a Broadway show, and they may not be willing to take the subway because there are problems.

David: I am running out of time.

You are both transportation and transit experts.

Recommend a strategy or two for commuters trying to get around the state or intrastate over the summer.

Let's start with you, calling.

-- Colleen.

Colleen: Oh boy.

I guess it depends on where you're coming from, right?

You are in the North, it seems like Hoboken is the go to place right now where there seems to be fewest problems.

And you have a lot of options.

You have a fairy, you have New Jersey transit trains that terminate there, you have the path.

So, I suppose finding a place that has the most options and alternatives is probably the way to go.

But you are probably best on vacation.

David: Staycation, I guess.

Larry, 10 seconds.

I guess plan your trip ahead of time?

Larry: Plan your trip ahead of time.

You might consider buying a folding bike on the train to get off wherever it ditches you and ride to the nearest bus stop.

There was more work around in the suburbs, and that is to drive the car into the nearest stop.

Sometimes that would be Hoboken.

Ditch it in the public garage, go over to one of the lines NJ Transit controls, because that is their market.

They break out the number of canceled trades and basically take out Amtrak and say, we are better.

Avoid anything that has to use the NEC.

David: We are better than Amtrak.

Colleen Wilson and Larry Higgs, great talking to you both.

Have a great summer.

That is "Chat Box" for this week.

Thank you to Roy Jones and Chris Russell, and thanks to all of you for watching.

For all the crew here at Gateway Center in downtown Newark, I'm David Cruz.

We will see you next week.

Announcer: Major funding for "Chat Box with David Cruz" is provided by njmep, a partner to New Jersey's manufacturing industry, focused on productivity, performance, and strategic development.

More on npmep.org.

promotional support is provided by Insider NJ, a political intelligence network dedicated to New Jersey's political news.

Insider NJ is committed to giving serious political players an interactive forum for ideas, discussion, and insight.

Online at insiderNJ.com.

♪