Announcer: Major funding for "Reporters Roundtable with David Cruz" is provided by RWJ Barnabas Health.

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Promotional support provided by "New Jersey Business" magazine, the magazine of the New Jersey Business and Industry Association, reporting to executive and legislative leaders in all 21 counties in the Garden State since 1954.

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♪ David: The weekend before primary day.

What to expect and why it is the way it is.

Also, guilty.

Now what?

Hey, everybody, it is "Reporters Roundtable," I am David Cruz.

Our panel of political prognosticators this week includes Colleen O'Dea, Senior writer and projects editor for NJ Spotlight News, Kenneth Burns, the New Jersey reporter for WHYY, and Matt Friedman, reporter for Politico and author of the "New Jersey Playbook."

We will scour the landscape with them in just a few minutes, but let's begin today with a look at the shape of all things political on the weekend before primary election day.

Our guest would probably rather be preparing for a showdown at the polls on Tuesday.

He was the senior advisor to the Tammy Murphy Senate campaign and has a little bit of time on his hands but he is also a Democratic strategist who knows a lot about what is happening out there.

It is a pleasure to welcome back to "Roundtable," Dan Bryan.

Dan, good to see you, man.

How are you doing?

Dan: Great to be here, David.

Rough opening.

I hope we go uphill from here.

David: [Laughter] We have a lot to talk about today.

We have not really seen you since the Murphy campaign ended.

How long does it take to get back to the grind after a campaign like that ends?

Dan: That is a good question.

Listen, any campaign when you are involved at that level takes over your life 24/7 and you are focusing 90% of your time on that and trying to fit family, other work commitments into the other 10%.

It take some time to come back out of it.

I will say Tammy was an unbelievable candidate.

She is a better person than she was a candidate.

She dropped out Sunday.

On that Wednesday, she opened up a new Health Center.

I could not have been prouder to work for her.

Only the sky is the limit.

David: any regrets?

Things you learned?

Dan: You can always do a million things differently but that is not different from any campaign.

Politics is a timing game.

If Tammy had run in other cycles, she would have cruised.

There is an old saying, it is better to be lucky than good.

Andy happened to be both.

It was the right cycle for him but he cut lightning in a bottle.

He ran a good, hard-nosed campaign.

Credit to him.

Do not want to take anything away from Tammy, who is a phenomenal person and I thought a phenomenal candidate.

I was more than proud to have work for her.

David: You mentioned the party line.

Has that changed everything going forward?

Is it a totally different landscape?

Dan: That will be the question on everyone's mind Tuesday.

I have always been a little bit of a Senate.

I thought the power of the line emanated from the perception of the power of the line more so than the line itself at the power.

A study said it is a 35-point advantage.

On its face, that is nonsense.

The best data we saw was high single digits, low double digits.

I would rather have a strong organization and run a really good race, be well-funded, have a really good candidate, more so than have the line.

Obviously the line did help and Marceau the perception -- more so the perception helped.

People will be looking at CD8 and CD3.

The Senate primary will be interesting.

I do not think we should over learn the lessons in this cycle.

We will have to average out what it meant in different elections.

It will have an impact but at the end of the day politics is still politics.

Run a good race, be a good candidate and communicate effectively.

David: The other news out of the courtroom in New York, Former President Donald Trump guilty on 34 counts.

I feel like he just got handed more fodder for fundraising.

Dan: Listen, Democrats always go into this thing with Rump where no matter what he does -- with Trump, no matter what he does, I refuse to get into that.

He is a criminal who was convicted by a jury of his peers.

Legal expert said that was the weakest of the four cases against him.

David: A couple races here, you touched on it a little bit.

The Republican Senate primary election denying, does not disqualify you anymore for the GOP primary.

Will a Trump endorsement be enough to get her over the top next week?

Dan: It will be a really interesting case study.

She has run a campaign to one person, Donald Trump.

Curtis -- off as run a campaign to hundreds of thousands of voters.

He endorsed Donald Trump.

I wish he had not.

I would be rooting for him harder.

Anytime I can group against Donald Trump I do.

It will be interesting.

They still have the line and the majority of their counties.

Curtis has most of those.

He will have organizational strength.

Far and away the most popular person in their party, Donald Trump, has endorsed her.

I have not seen her on TV.

I have not seen her run a good campaign.

Do people know he endorsed?

I know some of her County mottos will say "donald Trump endorsed ," to that effect.

One campaign is focused on the voters.

It will be an interesting case study.

I would think Curtis is going to win, given that I have not seen her communicate effectively enough that Donald Trump endorsed her.

David: How about the race to succeed Andy Kim and Carol Murphy in CD3?

Assembly mates.

Conway is the party favorite but the line or lack thereof has made it a closer race, or has it?

Dan: This is also interesting.

Regardless of which of those candidates win, Carol Murphy would be the first woman to represent South Jersey in Congress.

I think either way, we will have a historic first for the region.

Given the fact they will likely win the general election.

I do not think Murphy -- she is probably pushing uphill.

She does not have the county endorsements.

She has been out-fund raised, out-spent.

It seems like there has been more action on the other side.

She is probably not the favorite.

We will see what happens on Tuesday.

I think her opponent will be the favorite.

David: We have Rob Menendez on Chat Box this week.

What about that race?

That is one that people are watching.

It has done Hudson County proud by two guys throwing haymaker's at one another.

Dan: No secret that both of our roots are in Hudson County so we are enjoying this one.

I will start with -- I have known him for 15 years.

I think he has run a good race.

They have been aggressive and gone for the throat.

He has tried to run the progressive wave that Andy Kim did so well with in the primary.

He is up against two things.

Rob Menendez is a very good candidate.

The name does not have a lot of cache but he is a very good candidate in and of himself.

He has put together a fantastic team and run a good race.

If you are going to do a -- outside the organization primary, that is the toughest district to do it because you have people like Brian Stack.

He will be able to get the same boat without the line as he does with because the runs elections without a line.

These guys know how to get a vote out without a line.

I think the math will be too hard for him to overcome.

Rob Menendez goes into Tuesday as the favorite.

David: We will be watching closely.

Democratic strategist Dan Bryan, thank you for coming on with us.

All right, panel, Colleen O'Dea, Kenneth Burns, Matt Friedman.

We should start with Donald Trump.

Guilty is what I was expecting all along, Matt.

Unless he goes to prison, though, what will the impact of this conviction be?

Matt: I really don't know.

Everyone sang they know what will happen has no idea.

How many times do we have to watch an election and see exactly the opposite of conventional wisdom or something very different happen?

He was convicted.

I think what is interesting, with all the Republican response to the verdict, one person said whatever you think of Donald Trump, no other person would be charged with this.

It is not every day that someone has sex with a porn star and pacer off not to talk about it and is running for office.

It is a unique crime.

It is one of the interesting things.

Other than weak denials from Trump, nobody is doubting that is what happened.

I think the term "family values" was more popular in the 1990's.

No one is disputing what happened or whether it was a crime.

I think it is interesting he maintains this support that is not hemorrhaging from evangelical voters when he had sex with a porn star right after his child was born and then covered it up.

I am not the jury but the jury found him guilty.

We can say that he did that now, he has been found guilty, unless he is successful on appeal.

That is my take away.

None of us know, let's stop pretending we know.

The public is not tuned into the election.

That does not happen until later.

As far as him being convicted of a felony, I do not know how that will play out.

David: Colleen, do you agree with that?

The election is still months away.

Colleen: I do think it will only embolden his supporters because it does not matter -- despite what Dan said about him stepping on a rake and hitting himself in the face -- it seems like whenever he does emboldens his supporters, his core group, which is large.

On the other hand, I guess the question is -- and I agree with Mat that wet agree with Matt that we don't know -- what this would do to people on the fence, who do not like the idea of either candidate and will have to hold their nose going into choose one.

Or perhaps go for another candidate like a Robert Kennedy Jr., who has filed his paperwork and is officially on the ballot in New Jersey as an independent candidate.

David: In some circles, having sex with a porn star and covering it up with tons of cash makes you more popular.

Kenneth: This is a first for me.

In two segments, we have shown political science and facts do not mean a thing if it does not go your way.

In terms of Dan Bryan dismissing the line report and Trump supporters dismissing that he has felony counts, they are still going to support Donald Trump know better what because they like him.

They say this is not really a crime.

Let's take away Donald Trump and put in Hillary Clinton.

They would be all over it.

They would say "lock her up."

If you like somebody enough, you are willing to overlook actual facts like they covered up payments for a porn star affair.

David: The other trial in lower Manhattan, have we learned anything from the Menendez trial?

Colleen: We have certainly heard a lot.

There has been a lot of painstaking activities by the prosecution to painstakingly try to connect the dots between the gold bars and the emails and the texts.

We seem to be learning that Nadine Menendez, the senator's wife, was a go-between and had a lot to do with this.

This is what the prosecution is trying to betray -- portray.

They will be defending their guy.

It will be up to Nadine when she is on the stand.

Whether he will get convicted -- after the Trump convictions, maybe I feel a bit more like he will be found guilty.

Again, you need 12 people to all agree on at least one count.

David: He knows that better than most because that is how he got through the last trial.

Ken, have you made it up to Manhattan and have you found parking?

Kenneth: [Laughter] I did not make it up to New York and even still, that part of lower Manhattan, I would not even drive, especially because the congestion thing is about to take place.

David: Matt, is it certain he will run again if he is exonerated?

Matt: I don't know and I want to be careful about the term exoneration.

David: Found not guilty.

Matt: There is a legal case against him.

Is there even any dispute these people he was doing favors for gave him gold bars?

Is that even in dispute?

Look at this behavior.

Is he a patriot or he did he pretty much do everything that was alleged to have done?

When I look at this, the evidence -- it is overwhelming.

There is no excuse for this on a moral basis.

Legal is another question.

I will leave that up to the jurors.

On a moral basis, it is indefensible.

I think there is no doubt he will file petitions.

He will not be found not guilty before the filing deadline, which is Tuesday.

There is no question if he wants to have that to run, he will do it.

Secondly, he said if he is exonerated -- if you are already on the ballot and we know there is a certain fondness for Trump from Menendez, we know that in Trump's own words, maybe I am a conspiracy theorist but I see the possibility of Menendez trying to throw a wrench into New Jersey's Senate election to help Republicans, could it earn him some kind of clemency if he is convicted?

Just me following the logic of the situation.

Kenneth: You are no conspiracy theorist but you have a point.

This is not his first rodeo.

He was accused of bribery years ago.

We are seeing the same thing with gold bars and a $60,000 Mercedes-Benz convertible.

Even if he's found not guilty, New Jersey residents will look at this and say, do we really want to go through this again?

$60,000 Mercedes-Benz convertible.

Matt: I set up here every day of the last trial.

None of this was behavior you would want your elected representative to engage in.

David: I am sorry?

Colleen: And yet he did win last time.

Kenneth: That was the Trump effect.

Colleen: This time he is only pulling at 8% -- polling at 8%.

David: Real quickly from each of you, what is the race, the congressional primary, that you are watching as we go ahead to Tuesday?

Colleen: I will say 8.

I guess there might be a lot of folks out there because it is a presidential election who would go out and vote who are not collected politically to the machine but maybe I am dreaming.

David: What about you, Ken?

Kenneth: I am looking at 3 and 8.

And to correct something Dan said earlier, a congresswoman would take exception to, Conway, if he is elected would not be the first Black representative from the state of New Jersey.

David: He corrected himself, first -- he said first Black man.

Matt: I will not pick a congressional contest.

What I am interested in is the power of the line and how much power it has.

I think the contest it will most show us whether the line really had a huge impact, whether the Democratic organizations without the line are still powerful, will be the sheriff primary.

The establishment of the candidate has less name recognition and less money than the guy running off the line.

I think that might be the best test case in terms of what we are looking at in a post line primary world.

David: Interesting.

Time for our only in Jersey moments.

These notes are quintessentially Jersey.

Matt: I thought it was interesting.

Toms River under its new mayor who is going in there like a bull in a china shop.

Council meetings look like The Jerry Springer Show.

I think most of our viewers would remember that.

Toms River has inexplicably stopped archiving their Council meetings on YouTube.

I do not think it costs anything to do that.

You can watch it live what they do not put it on.

I do not think it takes any effort or money to do that on YouTube so why are they not?

The Council passed a resolution to put it back.

When we talk about the open Public meetings act -- we need to be vigilant about this.

There is absolutely no reason why these meetings should not be there for anyone to see them when they want to see them.

Our governments need to be -- David: Which should have everything online already.

Colleen: I found this somewhat quirky story about a woman named Betsy being honored by the Warren school boards Association.

She has been a school board member consecutively for 55 years.

20 of those she served on two boards, a regional high school board and a local board.

I look further and found she is not the longest serving member.

We had somebody who served for 60 years and retired in 2022 in middle Township.

I could not confirm this, she has to be the oldest serving school board member, she is 100 years and now in her 55th year on a school board in Warren County.

That is pretty amazing.

David: Wow.

Mine comes from the Jersey shore , where reports of rowdy behavior and one stabbing Drew a lot of media attention and outrage from political officials and police officials and some politicians.

Rowdy beer drinking teenagers has been as much of a part of the short tradition as funnel cakes.

Unproductive and unconstructive behavior is also a teenage trait that should be expected.

What is not constructive is the blame game on the part of some politicians who want to blame the governor for all of this, and from the governor who this week seemed to be in denial about some ugly scenes on the shore.

Summer has just begun officially and we should all expect what happened on the shore on Memorial weekend to happen again.

It is up to the adults, governors, senators, mayors and cops to anticipate that and find constructive ways.

I am no expert on child psychology or police procedure, I am pretty good at identifying political grandstanding and purposeful downplaying, neither of which is likely to make the Jersey shore anymore safe or enjoyable this summer.

That is "Roundtable" for this week.

Thanks to Dan Bryan for joining us.

Election day is Tuesday.

Our coverage begins at 8:00 p.m. with hourly updates.

Then at 10:00, the whole team assembles, along with reporters in the field.

.

We will go through results and figure out what it all means.

Be sure to join us Tuesday, starting at 8:00.

Important breaking news.

Our associate producer and his wife welcomed a new edition to their -- and new addition to the family.

The three of them are doing great and we send them our love and best wishes.

I am David Cruz.

For all the crew here in downtown Newark, thank you for watching.

We will see you next week.

Announcer: Major funding for "Reporters Roundtable" is provided by RWJ Barnabas Health.

Let's be healthy together.

Promotional support provided by "New Jersey Business" magazine, the magazine of the New Jersey Business and Industry Association, reporting to executive and legislative leaders in all 21 counties of the Garden State since 1954.

And by Politico's "New Jersey Playbook," a topical newsletter on Garden State politics, online at Politico.com.

♪