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♪ ♪ David: New Jersey's big primary election.

Are you ready for some voting?

Hey, everybody.

It is "Reporters Roundtable."

Here is our weekend before election Day panel.

Elias Schneider is -- Aliya Schneider is with The Philadelphia Inquirer.

Daniel Han is with Politico.

And peek Kenneth Burns is with WHYY.

We will have the panel in just a bit.

But we begin with a look at where things stand.

Joining us is the director of the Eagleton Center on the American Governor at Rutgers University, Kristoffer Shields.

Good to see you.

Kristoffer: It is great to be back.

We have a big week ahead of us.

David: We have been following this primary for almost two years now.

I am not sure voters have been engaged not long.

But is there any sense voters are now starting to tune in?

Kristoffer: I think there's some sense.

We have definitely seen, at least with the early voting, but the turnout has been relatively high compared to last year primaries.

So, I think that will be a good sign that voters are paying more attention than we realized they were.

Turnout is going to be a really big story this election, so we will find out how closely voters are paying attention.

But I think there are some indications over these last couple weeks that maybe there's been a little more focus on this race.

David: You mentioned turnout, and that is particularly important because on the Democratic side for governor, you have these candidates all of whom have a slice of the electorate.

Who pulls there people out is going to be really important, no?

Kristoffer: Yeah, I think that is the story of the Democratic primary.

Every election is a turnout election, but I think this one in particular with six candidates who are legitimate contenders, I think it is going to come down to which organization is able to most efficiently, effectively get their voters out.

If you start to do the math, which is not something I like to do, so you know I love you if I'm doing math for you, but you start to do that math, it may not take that many votes to win the Democratic nomination when you're splitting it up amongst six candidates, and in a primary of an off year election when turnout is likely to be relatively low.

It is one of the reasons all six candidates have a legitimate chance at this, if they can get their voters out, they can win.

David: I also got the sense the party apparatus is starting to muster.

This is a big election for the machine too, isn't it?

Kristoffer: It is.

The first one we've had for both sides not having the party line.

It is the biggest test I think.

We have a new system in terms of ballot design.

So, what is the impact of the party machine?

Is the party machine able to get the candidates who the counties have endorsed?

Or is this really a revolutionary change to New Jersey politics?

I think that is another of the big stories we will be tracking come Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

David: Does it appear to you that the front runners are solidifying their leads?

Kristoffer: I think on the Republican side, yes.

I think on the Republican side, we can call Jack Chatterley a -- Jack CCiattarelli.

On the Democratic side, I am not so sure.

Recent polls have been somewhat consistent in giving Mikey Cheryl -- Mikie Sherrill a slight lead.

When we are talking about such slim margins, small changes can have really big consequences.

I think it is much harder to say there has been a solidification on that side.

David: So, are there a couple things that have stuck out to you that you will remember about this governor's race or that we should consider in the final days here?

Kristoffer: I think two things that have stuck out to me, number one, how expensive it has been.

I don't think the final numbers are in.

But it is likely to be the most expensive gubernatorial primary in New Jersey history.

So, I think that is a big story.

Maybe not a big shock given all the circumstances, but I think that is a big story moving forward.

I think the fact you have six candidates on the Democratic side who all have a legitimate chance as we sit here the weekend before the primary, I think that is rare in juicy -- in Jersey politics.

What else is rare about the Democratic side, when you go back to February, you have these candidates who after that first debate it looks like they were going to go out to dinner together.

It took a while to start attacking each other.

You have seen a change in this the last couple weeks where you've seen more attack ads and you specifically seen them go after Mikie Sherrill a little bit, which is maybe a an indication in what they are seeing in their polling.

David: We have to talk about Trump on the Republican side.

That seemed to be the whole race.

Ciattarelli got the Trump endorsement.

Maybe because of that, polling evidence suggests that he really didn't need it.

Now he's got to carry it into November.

Will it weigh heavy, or is tramp -- or is Trump more of a plus then we think?

Kristoffer: I think it is a big question for Ciattarelli, how he handles Trump going into the general election.

I think some of what they might do depends on who wins the Democratic nomination and how the Democrats will handle the Trump question.

It might have some impacts on how Ciattarelli tries to moderate for the general election, or continues to run along that Trump line.

From the very beginning, the Ciattarelli campaign or his supporters kind of went after Bill Spadea and tried to push him up the line to allow Ciattarelli on the line.

A heat -- it was pretty clear he wanted that endorsement.

I'm not sure we will see from campaigning come fall, but it is a tough question.

There are people who know more than I do and who make much more than I do that will have to make that decision.

David: Looking forward to November.

I think the most interesting race would have been Spadea versus Ras Baraka, but I don't think that will happen.

Would it have been eight versus -- eight years of Murphy versus Trump at Maga?

Kristoffer: I think you have two sides trying to escape that.

I think Mikie Sherrill will highlight the differences she would bring if she is the nominee from Phil Murphy, and I think you will see Ciattarelli do that, too.

He will talk about being a New Jersey Republican.

Whoever the Democratic nominee is, they will try to paint Ciattarelli as a Trump candidate.

While certainly it seems like New Jersey has moved to the right a little bit, I think the New Jersey Republicans have embraced Trump a little bit.

Donald Trump is not popular amongst Democrats in New Jersey.

Whether it is Ras Baraka, whoever it is, I think you will see them try to paint Ciattarelli as a Trump candidate.

David: Professor, I hope you didn't think you were going to get out of here without making a prediction.

[laughter] So, in the minute I have left, who is your Democratic candidate and who is your Republican candidate come next Wednesday?

Kristoffer: I will do the easy one first.

I do think Jack Ciattarelli will likely win the Republican primary, and I will put that out there.

The Democratic side, it is much harder.

I am terrible about predictions.

I think I have been wrong with the reproduction I have made ever.

-- with every prediction I have ever made ever.

I think I would say -- David: Those were pretty run-of-the-mill picks.

I was hoping you would say Barbara versus Branak.

Kristoffer: I would not count out Steve Sweeney.

We have not talked a lot about him but I would not count him out.

David: Kristoffer Shields, good to see you.

Thanks for taking a few minutes with us.

Kristoffer: My pleasure.

Any time.

David: Panel, welcome.

Good to see you all.

Kenny, weekend before the big day, who is surging on either side and who has lost a step?

Kenneth: Let's start with the Republicans.

Ciattarelli is certainly in his stride.

I think he will take the Republican primary easily.

Bill Stadia --Spadea, he is running ads saying I disagree with Trump and that's OK, and that is not an easy thing to do in the Republican this time.

As far as the Democrats go, it is a hard one.

I'm not counting Steve Sweeney out, like the professor just said, because we have seen people over perform in the South to ultimately win the gubernatorial ship.

David: baraka, who seemed to be surging, seemed to have hit a plateau, right?

You are saying he is still surging?

Kenneth: I don't know if he is still surging.

He may have hit the plateau.

I know getting arrested, and like I've told people the last couple weeks, I don't think he wanted to get arrested by anybody from the Trump Administration to get a boost to his gubernatorial campaign.

But it did give a lot of attention to him and his campaign.

David: Yeah.

Aliya, have you sensed any momentum shifts?

Aliya: I have been very curious about how true the prediction is that the South is turning out for Steve Sweeney.

I think there's definitely parts of South Jersey that are, but I've also heard from South Jersey voters who are kind of anybody but Sweeney.

And so, I think that we saw a lot of mail ballots go to Steve Sweeney.

Not to Steve Sweeney, a lot of mail ballots coming from the south.

I think that was, we can see the machine supporting Steve Sweeney in action.

But I don't think we can make predictions based off of that because the Democratic machine in the South is very unorganized, so they could have gotten a lot of mail ballots out and that means less people turning out for him on election day.

And we also don't know that all those votes, or even most of them, are going to Steve Sweeney.

So, I think this is really a test of that South Jersey machine and also Steve Sweeney, and if people in the South want to give him a chance to have that South Jersey leader, or if people know him a little too well and there's reasons they don't want to support him.

So, I a little skeptical but curious about that South Jersey turning out for Sweeney beyond the committees.

David: I was talking to Republicans this week who said Mikie Sherrill, maybe she is technically a front runner, but she should have had this thing wrapped up long ago with all the institutional support that she has had.

Is is not a prevailing opinion -- is that prevailing opinion?

Aliya: In a position where maybe they need to put more effort into the ground game that they did not have to do before.

Steve Fulop, for example, is very focused on that antiestablishment message.

So, there is this prevailing skepticism of the machine endorsements and whether they are good or bad things.

Steve Fulop has been in South Jersey a lot, and so when you are in South Jersey, you have that pro machine, anti-machine, then Mikie Sherrill when she comes to South Jersey, it is like, she represents in a way because of her endorsements another machine.

So, I think some people may not be directly thinking about, where they endorsed or not endorsed?

But there are things that are more subconscious, like there are a lot of signs in my neighborhood for the candidate that the committee is supporting.

So, I have heard that a lot that people expected Sherrill to have more popularity early on, but it was also her strategy to wait to put her adds up.

So a lot of people especially in the South didn't know who she was until more recently when maybe it matters more.

Kenneth: To be fair in terms of the machine, there's definitely the candidate, but I find the further you get away from Camden, it is a mixed bag.

People know about the machine but they are not thrilled about the machine.

A lot of people in Camden are pulling for Fulop because they believe of how he has run, he has run against the establishment in North Jersey, and there is that sentiment he would take on the machine in South Jersey.

Definitely antimachine in Camden, but the further you get away, Steve Sweeney might be able to use the suburbs versus the city, so to speak.

David: That is interesting.

Daniel: The one thing I might add to this, the one way for Steve Sweeney to win the nomination is not just a matter of, does he win South Jersey?

He needs to run up the numbers in South Jersey.

Bergen County is Josh Gottheimer country.

Ras Baraka gained a support of a lot of the African-American voters.

It is important for Steve to run up the margins.

If it is second place, it is a good thing for them.

We are talking a six person field where anyone could win with less than 30% of the vote.

David: I was going to ask you, really big names on the Democratic side.

Legit candidates.

And a fight for the party's identity on the Republican side.

You have been on this beat for a year, at least.

What is sticking with you as we head into Tuesday?

Daniel: I think it is really interesting that this race, especially in the Democratic primary, can really tell us, what is the direction the Democratic Party is taking as it is a bit lost in the wilderness?

Lost the presidency, doesn't control either chamber read what is it that Democratic voters want?

Especially at this time we are seeing so much discontent of the Democratic Party.

Not just the general public but among Democrats themselves.

I think of someone like Ras Baraka wins, it shows what voters want is someone who will aggressively fight Donald Trump and take that fight directly to him.

I think if someone like Congressman Josh Gottheimer win s, it shows what voters really want is someone who is focused on affordability, coding taxes.

That is not just a message that wins in the general election, but could propel Democratic primary voters.

Steven Fulop, people don't like the establishment, they don't like the way Democratic politics have been run.

Even somebody like Sean Spiller.

That could show the power of money in politics.

You are talking about a candidacy that has been propped up so far by $40 million of spending of union dues.

David: Hold that thought, because I want to talk about that in a minute.

All the endorsements pouring in, in the final days here.

But there's one that stuck out to me the most, and that was this one.

>> This country needs a mother.

This state needs a mother.

And that's why this mother Majority Leader Senator of District 29 is endorsing the beautiful Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill for governor of the state of New Jersey.

David: They were both rocking blue suits.

They looked like they are running together.

That felt to me like the ultimate stamp of approval from the party.

Ruiz is the Majority Leader in the Senate.

But to her, it was, as she put it, "having a person in the room who has ovaries."

On the other hand, they could face repercussions if another Democrat gets in there.

Will this endorsement have any impact?

Daniel: I think it is interesting when we talk about endorsements.

The way I always think about it, does it bring money?

Does it bring votes?

Or does it bring both?

Or does it bring credibility?

I think what is really important for Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill right now is you are talking about the Senate Majority Leader represents, and Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill, while she does have the backing of the Essex County Democratic establishment, Essex County can be a place thought of as two different places.

You have the more affluent wealthy suburbs, and you have the more urban areas that are populated by communities of color.

I think having someone like Teresa roadways step in and -- Teresa Ruiz step in and say this is the candidate I am supporting, it helps to bridge those two sides of Essex County and is part of it.

David: Aliya, I guess you will take anyone's endorsement if they have given it to you.

But is it fair to assume that women voters are Mikie voters?

Aliya: I don't think -- I don't think all women voters are Mikie voters, of course.

But I think for certain women, it is really important to get more female elected officials.

And I think after Kamala Harris's loss, people who it was really important to them that she was a woman, I could see why they would see Mikie Sherrill as another chance at electing a woman in office, and I think we definitely see that for some women that is really important and that they see Mikie Sherrill as this strong female role model, someone who can be a voice for women.

That is kind of what is going to lead them to support her first and foremost.

But I do think maybe people who are more engaged in the nuances of policy and may be who care more about the establishment versus antiestablishment, I'm sure there's plenty of women who that is not the thing they are going to vote based off of, but I definitely have heard from women who say, we need more women in office, and Mikie Sherrill can do that.

David: Is this the first year that a campaign will have basically been created, funded, and essentially managed by a Super PAC instead of the campaign?

Kenneth, the dawn of the days of the manufactured candidate?

Kenneth: Oh, I don't think much is changing, other than the size of the bank accounts these days.

David: $40 million.

Kenneth: $40 million.

And considering you have the New York and Philadelphia media markets covering New Jersey, the price tag only goes up.

David: With the right amount of money from a PAC that I promise not to coordinate with, I could run for mayor or Congress, right?

Daniel: You know what, David, you will have to win over my vote first.

[laughter] But with campaign finance, I think the story line of the teachers union spending so much money on Sean Spiller's candidacy has been so interesting because if Spiller doesn't come out on top of this, I think there's going to be a real reckoning within the teachers union of what was that all for?

David: It could be worse spent.

Daniel: What do they have to show for it?

Alternatively, if Spiller is a part -- is able to come from behind and have a strong finish, there is something to be said about the power of not only money in politics, but also the teachers union.

David: Wrapping this up, predictions from each of you.

One Democrat, one Republican, or too close to call.

Aliya, let's start with you.

Aliya: I don't like making predictions.

I would rather just mentally be prepared for anything.

I think if there was a prediction to make, it is the one everyone is making, which is Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli.

But I don't like making productions, so we will have to wait and see.

David: All right.

Dan, what do you think?

Daniel: On the Republican side, I think Jack Ciattarelli is the very strong front runner.

Not only do you have the Trump endorsement, he has been able to out raise his opponents by magnitudes.

He leads in all the polls.

He is the very strong favorite in this race.

On the Democratic side, there are six possible candidates and we will see on Wednesday who it is.

David: That is really the antithesis of a prediction.

We will see who it is.

What you mean is, it is too close to call?

Daniel: Too close to call.

My production is it will be one of the six.

David: Ken, save us here.

Be bold, my friend.

Kenneth: I will be my darndest.

I think Ciattarelli claims the Republican nomination hands down, for the earlier stated reasons, plus the fact he shows up.

He does the shoe leather campaigning, especially in South Jersey.

On the Democratic side, I think it is too close to call, but with three Essex County candidates, Mikie Sherrill has the better shot at being in the top spot.

Sean Spiller -- sorry, no.

Ras Baraka is in the same boat.

Josh Gottheimer, you don't fake a Springsteen playlist in New Jersey.

I am a Marylander and I know that.

[laughter] David: He never recovered from his Springsteen faux pas.

Good to see you all.

Thanks also to Kristoffer Shields for joining us.

A programming note here.

As you know, voting has already begun.

It ends on Tuesday at 8:00 p.m., and that is when we hit the airwaves.

NJ Decides 2025, Tuesday, June 10 live.

Plus, correspondents at key headquarters across the state.

And political analysis from all the people who know.

Join us Tuesday night starting at 8:00 p.m. and going on until we know what happens.

And that is "Reporters Roundtable" for this week.

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I am David Cruz.

For all the crew here, thank you for watching.

We will see you Tuesday night.

Announcer: Major funding for "Reporters Roundtable with David Cruz" is provided by RWJ Barnabas Health.

Let's be healthy together.

♪ ♪