GEOFF BENNETT: Now let's get some# additional perspective on the prisoner swap.

Nick Schifrin has that -- Nick.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Geoff, to discuss the# larger implications of today's events,## we turn to Andrew Weiss.

He's a former# State Department official who served in## the George H.W.

Bush and Clinton administrations,## and is now the vice president for studies at# the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Thanks very much, Andrew Weiss.

Welcome back... ANDREW WEISS, Carnegie Endowment for# International Peace: Great to be here.

NICK SCHIFRIN: ... t.. As we just showed a few minu.. and time welcomed home all these Russian spies and# their families on a big red carpet, big flowers.

What messages is he sending?

ANDREW WEISS: So Vladimir Putin goes to# great lengths to wrap .. of the Russian security establishment, but# all of that covers up a pretty unpleasant## and embarrassing fact, which is that Russian# spies have been arrested all over the world## or caught red-handed doing bad stuff, including# the hit man in the Berlin case, Vadim Krasikov.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Krasikov, right.

ANDREW WEISS: So what Vladimir .. frankly, for the continued underperformance# of his security establishment and acting## like they're big heroes.

They're# screw-ups.

They're not heroes.

NICK SCHIFRIN: As I reported earlier, the U.S.# offered two different trades before today,## for Whelan by himself and then Whelan, Evan# Gershkovich, including those two Russian## so-called illegal sleeper agents that had been# caught in Slovenia, but both were rejected.

And the message that the U.S. got was,# call us back when we have Krasikov.## So why is Krasikov so important to Putin?

ANDREW WEISS: So there's indications that they# know each other personally.

The Wall Street## Journal has a wonderful long piece that appeared# some time today that says they potentially worked## together back when Vladimir Putin was the# deputy mayor of St. Petersburg in the 1990s.

So this is a career Russian intelligence# operative who's presumably conducted a## variety of assassinations and targeted killings in# various parts of the world, including in Moscow,## and who claims to have gone to shooting ranges and# done other things with Vladimir Putin personally.

So there seems to be a connection between# the two men -- the two men, rather.

And you## saw when he came down the jetway today at the# airport of Moscow, Vladimir Putin hugged him.

NICK SCHIFRIN: And you and I have# talked multiple times about how## the different parts of the national security# apparatus in Russia often fight each other.

Could there also be a dispute within the# intelligence agencies inside of Russia over## who to release?

And would the FSB -- Putin being a# former KGB colonel, would the FSB win that fight?

ANDREW WEISS: So Russia has a sprawling# national security apparatus, which is## big by design.

It's intended to kind of# avoid power consolidating in any corner,## so that Vladimir Putin can# kind of divide and rule.

But what we have seen, rather than the# Russian security establishment backing## away from confrontation with the West, is# leaning in.

And so we have seen reports of## the Russian intelligence services trying# to assassinate the CEO of a senior German## defense manufacturer.

We have seen# them conduct sabotage operations.

When Vladimir Putin says he's at war with the# West, I think we need to take him at his word.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Why would# Putin agree to this deal now,## three months before the U.S.# election,instead of waiting.

ANDREW WEISS: Vladimir Putin is a cold-blooded## operator who is tactical and who# believes in being transactional.

So for him to get what he thinks is a pretty# good deal -- for ages, they have been pushing## to get the hit man in the Berlin case released.# This is a person who is serving a life sentence## for conducting a murder, a targeted killing, in# broad daylight.

So, for them, this is a good deal.

And if you look at the other Russians# who are coming out of detention,## these are people who Russians wanted back, who are# intelligence operatives that have been rolled up## in Poland and Norway and in Slovenia, as# well as people conducted in U.S. courts.

But what is -- all these debates about a deal come# down to are the numbers, and the counting game is## really complicated.

So U.S. officials today# are at pains to say we're getting 16 people## out and the Russians are getting eight back.# So it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.

NICK SCHIFRIN: And yet Putin# did not release other Americans,## as Geoff was just highlighting, Marc Fogel# included.

Why might he withhold some of them?

ANDREW WEISS: They're bargaining chips.# So there are other Russians that they want## back.

There are people that the Russians# will continue to take into attention.

Any American who's foolish enough to go# to visit Russia, even for family reasons,## is at risk.

President Biden today made a point of# that in saying the underlying message of today's## good news is also that people need to steer clear# of travel to dangerous destinations like Russia.

NICK SCHIFRIN: And quickly, in the moments we# have left, you have had an extensive career## in government.

How complicated would it# have been to coordinate all the European## countries and all the U.S. agencies and# Russian intelligence to get this deal?

ANDREW WEISS: I'm glad you brought that up.

That's# what's truly unprecedented about today's news.## It's a multidimensional problem that wasn't just# negotiated between the United States and Russia.

The German role was absolutely# critical because, as you pointed out,## that was the key demand from the Russian# side.

So without the German support,## this deal would not have come together.

And# then you had lesser roles played by our allies.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Andrew Weiss, thanks# very much -- Geoff, back to you.