(dramatic music) - Welcome to "Capitol View," where we discuss the latest in state government and politics.

I'm Hannah Meisel with NPR Illinois.

Joining us this week is Kent Redfield, Professor Emeritus in political science at the University of Illinois, Springfield.

Thanks for being here, Kent.

- Good to be here.

- And also here is Amanda Vinicky of Chicago public television station, WTTW.

Glad you're here, Amanda.

- Love being with you guys.

- Governor J.B. Pritzker this week issued a partial mask mandate, including for schools after weeks of contentious school board meetings across the state.

Prior to this, a good many school districts had already adopted mask-optional policies for the school year per older CDC guidance from early July, though other districts had held off and decided to require masks.

You know, as we've seen the rise of this more contagious so-called Delta variant of COVID, Amanda, the governor says he had no choice because of the Delta variant.

Was this always inevitable?

- You know, had more people gotten the vaccine then perhaps this wouldn't have been inevitable.

And yet it seems as if when we, when the nation, started missing targets, let alone Illinois, not that Illinois had a hard and fast targets, but nonetheless, when you weren't seeing vaccination rates as high as they need be to reach what's always, I think, been sort of elusive in terms of this herd immunity standpoint, then yeah.

Something I think was going to happen.

I guess I'll be curious.

In a couple of weeks, will there be a "Capitol View" program where the discussion is, is this inevitable talking about further mitigations because when governor J.B. Pritzker introduced the new sets of mandates with masking and then some vaccination ones that I'm sure we'll get to for state employees, he said that this is initial steps to combat the Delta variant, which is highly transmissible.

And he said he wanted to take these actions now, so that there isn't a surge of a surge as the state has seen in the past, but he did not indicate what could come after that.

And in fact, when asked about any sort of mask mandates for public places, be it grocery stores, restaurants, what have you, or other mitigations, he did not indicate that that would be something coming down the pike.

He says that we are in a new and a different time period because the vaccine is available.

So not going back to all of those phases of yore.

- Right, but you know, it was interesting watching the reaction, especially from Republicans to this mask mandate yesterday, especially from the limited field of Republican candidates vying to replace the governor, unseat the governor next year, you know, of course, an overreaction, a theatrical overreaction is just part of politics these days, but Kent, some reacted as if you know, the governor was sending everyone back into lockdown and in fact, used that terminology, used that fear of, this is about control, this is not about controlling the virus.

What did we see from those candidates who are trying to challenge the governor?

- Well, they're playing to a base.

They have to win a primary.

In terms of people they're expecting to be in, you know, voters in the Republican primary, they're hitting the right notes.

But this is not something you're gonna run successfully on in the general election.

I don't think in terms of schools, it will, I mean, we're pretty much maxed out.

We're not gonna go into distance learning.

And so the social distancing, the masks, testing, I mean, you know, there are some other things here, but you know, as long as you've got everybody under 12 years old, can't get back vaccinated, you've got, if the variant is crossing over in terms of people that are vaccinated, it's much more contagious.

And it, regardless of what superintendent and school boards will say, an awful lot of them are more than happy to have the governor make this decision and take that away from them.

So it's blame the governor and that's what you do when you're governor.

So he's gonna take the heat, but yeah, this is, you know, what you're getting from the current Republican field is pretty much regurgitating the talking points, the Republican leadership says, you know, you've got to let the general assembly come in and weigh in on this.

And that's a recipe for doing absolutely nothing and getting more mush.

And so, I don't think he had any choice other than to do what he did.

And I don't think that, as far as schools are concerned, this is pretty much where we're at.

And we're pretty much going to vaccinate, you know, college age students.

I mean, the U of I certainly is requiring that across the board, so.

I think it's settled in terms of where we're going.

There isn't much more that we can do in terms of that.

And we just hope we get enough people vaccinated to at least slow this down and perhaps get the numbers going the other direction.

- Just one of the things that Kent said that I want to kind of circle back to is that, school boards were, phew, this has gotten contentious in certain cases, because it's not just the Republican candidates running against Pritzker who are tossing out some pretty big words and casting masking as, you know, a matter of freedom.

I think that you have a lot of parents who really feel that way, I mean, there are strong emotions from parents on both sides.

Those who are scared to send their children to school period, but particularly when there were going to be districts going mask-optional.

And then on the other hand, parents who, be it because they've been kind of ginned up from politicians or what, really also don't want their children to do this.

You heard some of the Republican candidates say, "No, this is bad for students' mental health."

And I think there are, it could be easy for pundits to say, that that's a political talking point, but I think people really feel that way.

Something that Kent said though, it's not just school boards.

These people who ran for a local office who are happy to pass this decision off to the governor, it's the legislature as well.

And I think that there is sort of an interesting point that even when Madigan was speaker in the pre-Welch days, the notion had always been that Mike Madigan was very protective of keeping the general assemblies authority, not passing that off to the executive branch.

And nonetheless, this is a case, I think, where you could argue that the general assembly really did just say, "Nope, we're done."

Handing it over to Governor Pritzker's office.

For better or for worse, I think that there is an argument about co-equal manage, co-equal branches of government and how far that has gone, or perhaps a lack of, a dereliction of duty might be too strong, but has the general assembly really allowed themselves to remove from the controversy.

And then finally here I guess I'll say, another thing we'll be watching for, because Pritzker, when he said, you know, we're in a new stage because there is vaccine available, there's also a new stage in that he's got a reelection on the horizon, he's casting his reelection thus far on his leadership during the pandemic.

And I think he's trying to continue to show that, but because there is a vaccine, those who've gotten the vaccine, I think there are some, and he acknowledged this in his press conference when he announced these new mandates, are saying, "Hey, wait, I did my part.

I'm sick of this.

We can't shut the whole economy down all over again."

And so he has to walk even perhaps a more careful line politically as the science is not what it once was and there might not be the appetite for some of these mitigation measures, depending on how far and how strong he goes.

Particularly if, God forbid, it were to come to shutdowns.

- Yeah, that's right.

I mean, yeah, there are a lot of people who had defended the governor for a long time, but there are vaccines available, not just available, but like, you know, you could walk, you could go into any Walgreens, any CVS, any, a lot of places.

Your doctors office.

- You could win a million dollars!

- Right, and you know, it's just, it's embarrassingly available, especially when you take it in the context of other countries who are begging and wish, and they look at the United States and see these people just rejecting vaccines.

And unfortunately wherever there's vaccine, or sorry, where there is massive spread, whether it's in unvaccinated people in the United States or unvaccinated people in another country where they just don't have any vaccine available yet, you're gonna get, unfortunately, more of these mutations.

And it is scary because what if we do run into one that's vaccine resistant altogether and put us back to square one.

But I do want to also, I mean, vaccines and masks, they're not the entire solution.

Remember our good friend testing.

Everyone getting COVID tests so many times, especially in the early months of the pandemic, the governor yesterday expanded the availability of this free University of Illinois saliva shield testing to all schools outside of Chicago, should they want to take it.

And the goal there being, be aware, be aware of your status, and there are new guidelines where before you would have to be out for anywhere from 10 to 14 days during the incubation period.

But now there's this option to test out.

If you do either test positive for COVID or perhaps get a false positive.

So those should go a long way into making sure that kids aren't out of school, and teachers, frankly, because that's gonna be, that's a problem, was last year, and it could be this year, make sure that they're not gone from the classroom for an extended period of time.

But I do want to move on to the second part of the governor's mandate yesterday was that state employees, frontline state employees, those who work in prisons, congregate care facilities, group homes, veterans homes, that they get vaccinated by October 4th.

And Kent, the state's largest public employee union pushed back on that yesterday.

The governor had cited low vaccination rates in the veterans homes where I thought was interesting because of course he is under fire for an outbreak, a fatal outbreak, at the LaSalle home last fall.

But the governor said, quote, "It's a breach of safety.

It's fundamentally wrong.

And in Illinois, it's going to stop."

Referring to folks who choose not to get vaccinated, who work at these places, and could be carrying the virus in.

And AFSCME's Council 31 President Roberta Lynch pushed back and said we strongly oppose any efforts to define them, meaning state employees, as part of the problem, rather than recognizing their dedication.

So, Kent, I mean, this is an interesting corner that the governor's painting himself in.

He had such a good relationship with unions throughout his campaign, and first year in office.

But as we're getting to year two and a half, three, the governor's really had to battle them over things like this, and also the energy bill, which we'll get to later.

But what do you think of this new battleground?

- Well, he is going to get on the mask side, the vast majority of the students that are attending, K through 12 are going to be in districts that are complying with the mask mandate.

I mean the real holdouts will be in areas, if we just look at it politically, in areas that he's not, no, not gonna win in the general election.

This is gonna be popular in the suburbs, the Chicago School Board, or the Chicago Teacher's Union has endorsed this, the two teacher unions, the IEA and the IFT.

And so, I don't know the risks there.

I don't know.

I mean, he wants people to reelect them on his leadership and the cornerstone of that is how he deals with the pandemic.

I think, again, for people that have been vaccinated, if AFSCME wants to be negotiated with, and they want to have enough cover to say that, well, you know, we got exemptions and we're gonna, you know, for certain, we've got testing regimes that will allow us to, you know, some members not to get vaccinated, 'cause they're gonna be tested with the, you know, if that's where this ends up, then you got face-saving in both directions.

He gets his, I'm leading and the union gets that, we're not giving away our prerogatives as a union, that we've been negotiated with.

So there certainly is a way, you know, there's a path that will make this work.

Now again, the membership of AFSCME a lot of these facilities are in areas outside of Northeastern, Illinois, and the people that are in the communities that those workers come from may not be as sympathetic to or as gung ho on where the governor wants to go.

So there are dangers in this, sure.

But standing up to public employee unions who, you know, are very important, but they don't have the clout that the teachers or the trade unions have.

I think that that's, you know, he's decided this is how he's, you know, this is how he wants to proceed in terms of building that, "Reelect me because I'm a strong leader."

- And Amanda, just real quick, any final thoughts on where this might go if it goes into negotiations into the, you know, a memorandum of understanding or if it goes to some sort of legal battle between the governor's office and AFSCME?

- Yeah, in that regard, October 4th fast approaches, and I think plenty of critics would say, "Hey, wait, why such a long lag time?"

This is going to go to negotiations.

No matter what, they'll be bargained over.

There are those who say that this doesn't go far enough.

Why is it just a mandate for state employees in congregate settings, make it a mandate period.

So I guess, again, things that I'll be watching for.

Might things change at all if FDA approval is given to these vaccines.

And it is also, I think, as you noted early on Hannah, that this is interesting, number one, due to the governor battling a lawsuit and criticism of a fatal COVID outbreak at a veteran's home, trying to stave that off.

And really his words were pretty harsh saying that there have not been enough state employees vaccinated at these facilities.

And then number two, that he is going head to head with AFSCME and this is sort of his second battle with the labor movement, because he's also on the opposite side when it comes to the latest in energy talks.

And for a governor that has, I think, really gone out of his way to not in any way, shape, or form make labor upset, he is on two fronts now.

- Yeah.

- And.

- Go ahead, Kent.

- The other thing, in terms of October 4th, I would not be surprised if you have FDA approval before October 4th.

They're really putting the manpower in to processing the data.

And that will be, you know, if the vaccine has full approval at that point, then that puts him in a stronger position to push vaccination, and again, it makes people opposing it, that takes an objection away from them.

So, but it is, it certainly is, this is a risk/reward situation.

- That is true.

That is true.

We'll see what happens there.

But Amanda, I do want to get to this latest development in the energy talks.

Organized labor on Monday sent a letter to the governor saying, "Hey, we're at impasse with environmental groups."

The two sides were supposed to have been negotiating all summer on an energy and climate deal that would obviously make a difference in climate change, but also prevent Exelon, the nuclear giant, from shutting down two, and then down the line, possibly three of its nuclear facilities in Illinois.

I want to remind viewers, even though downstate is not, as a whole, Illinois is the most nuclearized state in the nation.

So losing two facilities would be major to our grid.

And so, Amanda, after labor said that they're at impasse, environmental groups said they are too, and then the governor shot back with, "I'm done negotiating."

- "I'm done."

Yeah, the governor shot back.

So first, I guess I'll say that this was a sort of a strange one to report the news of because the news is that there is no news.

And that they have really dug their heels in.

But even more than both the environmentalist and labor, it seems as if Governor J.B. Pritzker is as well.

When you had both sides saying, "Hey, we have talked throughout the summer.

We've done all that we can.

It is now off to you, legislators and the governor's office."

When asked about it, Pritzker sort of took umbrage with the notion that interest groups were talking amongst themselves without involvement of electeds.

Although it really does seem as if, at least since the legislature it was back in, I believe it was June in Springfield, to try and get a deal done on this that that is the case, they're saying, no, the people are going to be taking the votes.

It's time for you to make the decisions.

What is palatable?

What will you vote for?

Off to you.

But the governor pretty much saying, hey, he's done negotiating.

That the last deal offered is the one that his office is going to stick with.

So this is another one where if you like, sort of theme of this show, we're going to be watching what sort of action he takes, is sticking by what he's framing as a compromise, going to be what ultimately passes or those who, there are those who I've talked to that say, "Hey, wait, he can't call it a compromise if we don't believe in it, you can't compromise with yourself at this point in time."

So no energy deal, but the stakes for this are really, really high on the renewables front.

So we're talking wind and solar, and also as was noted for Illinois energy market and climate change in general, this is huge.

- Right, and it was a summer marked by a lot of environmental disasters and the environmental groups really wanted to use that to their advantage.

But the organized labor who is advocating extensively for the workers at these plants, nuclear and also the legacy fossil fuel plants, they say, especially if nuclear shuts down, it's gonna be even more of a disaster, 'cause we'll have to import dirtier energy from elsewhere.

But Kent, the governor wants to go ahead and put a vote on the board with the deal that he and environmental groups want, but the votes aren't there.

What is that strategy?

Especially with, - Well.

- It's a higher vote threshold.

- Yeah, but we, no, it requires a three-fifths vote.

There's plenty of precedent for, you know, putting a piece of legislation on the floor, having it fail, and everybody looking at the reality of, the possibility nothing's going to get done and creating leverage that way.

That's, again, this is hard to decouple because to give money to Exelon, you want to have a win on the environmental side.

And that's what makes it complicated.

You can't, you've got two very contentious issues and the union interests in the nuclear plants are different than the interests in, you know, particularly the the Southern Illinois campus.

A lot of that is not really unionized in terms of, you know, a lot of subsidiary things are and stuff.

So no failing is one way.

You can fail and in terms of trying to get people's attention and the possibility of, and Exelon is playing the same game.

They're moving with the paperwork to decommission.

You can pull all of this back.

And frankly, I hope that I'm gonna be around to see the difference between a 2035 target date and a 2045 target date.

It's not like we're, that this, something bad is gonna happen next January if we don't get this done, but you know, certainly there's a risk in terms of the power plant.

So it's just, again, it's trying to create leverage and urgency and also some reality in terms of people.

And until you put the votes up on the board, I mean, the worst thing that happens is the environmental people get the vote one way, the union people get the vote the other way, everybody takes it out on Exelon.

And then, the loser in all of that is the power plant situation.

You know, the nuclear plants.

Because they really need something to happen in a much shorter, shorter timeframe.

But again, we have a tradition of, allowing everybody to have a roll call and vote on whatever side they want so that they can put it in their campaign literature.

Welcome to Illinois.

- Yeah.

And Amanda, there is, it's been interesting to watch whether people even take Exelon at their word that they're gonna shut down, but in the last week or so, the company made moves to say, "No, we're really doing this."

- Yeah, they are serious about decommissioning if no state deal goes through.

They say that the notion that the feds would come through with money to prop up ailing nuclear plants, financially ailing that is.

Thank God not actually physically ailing, we wouldn't want that.

That a federal deal there would not be enough, so they are pretty serious about it it seems.

Although I think questions about whether to believe them or not are warranted, given ComeEd's alleged bribery dealings.

- Well, we are out of time.

I want to thank our guests.

Amanda Vinicky, Kent Redfield.

I'm Hannah Meisel.

Thanks for joining us.

We'll see you again next week on "Capitol View."

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