- I think there's one lane for the nomination, and right now Donald Trump's in the front of that lane.

And if you want to get in the front of that lane, you better intervene and go right through him because otherwise trying to go around him, I don't think it's a strategy.

[upbeat music] - Hello and welcome to GZERO World.

I'm Ian Bremmer, and today, it's hard to believe but we are already talking about the 2024 US presidential election.

Sure, it's 18 months away, but it's America and we've got the biggest elections.

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden's nomination is a foregone conclusion.

On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump is polling higher than any of his competitors and that could be a big problem for the GOP because they haven't done so great in the last three election cycles where Trump dominated the conversation.

But if another strong Republican candidate emerges, the race is thrown open and becomes a referendum on Biden's job as President, and with the president's approval rating hovering in the high 30s, low 40s, that's an easier battle for the Republicans to fight.

Is there any chance that 2024 election won't be a Trump versus Biden repeat?

If Trump wins the nomination, what does that say about where the Republican Party is headed?

I'm talking with rumored 2024 GOP candidate and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie.

Don't worry, I've also got your Puppet Regime.

- This is not how you throw a surprise party.

I think you are confused.

- But first, a word from the folks who help us keep the lights on.

- [Announcer] Major corporate funding provided by founding sponsor, First Republic.

At First Republic, our clients come first.

Taking the time to listen helps us provide customized banking and wealth management solutions.

More on our clients at firstrepublic.com.

Additional funding provided by Jerre and Mary Joy Stead, Carnegie Corporation of New York, Prologis.

And by.

[upbeat music] - The only certain things in this world are death, taxes, and the fact that the US election cycle is unending.

If it feels like 2020 just ended a moment ago, it might be because a certain former US president hasn't stopped talking about it.

- 2020, 2020, 2020 election.

Just saying.

Just saying.

[audience laughs] - And if constantly hearing about 2020 isn't bad enough, how about reliving it with a Biden versus Trump rematch?

It's like Groundhog Day, but without Bill Murray or the funny fellows in top hats, or the groundhog.

Totally wouldn't watch this movie.

Trump is polling at almost 50% among Republican primary voters.

He's got a ton of cash and few within the party are willing to criticize him.

After multiple criminal investigations, two impeachments, and one violent insurrection, Teflon Don could be the first former president to reclaim the executive office since Grover Cleveland in 1892.

That's a long time ago.

But poll numbers can change a lot.

And the field of other 2024 challengers is already taking shape.

First, there's Trump's biggest rival, at least for now, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

He hasn't declared but has the best non-Trump poll numbers.

So Trump's already work shopping nicknames.

DeSantis has been busy transforming the Sunshine state into the anti-woke capital of the United States and picking fights with Disney.

So it certainly feels like he's running.

Then this former ambassador and governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, she's the most politically experienced woman ever to seek the Republican nomination.

She has executive experience, foreign policy chops, and managed to pull off the politically impressive, emerging from the Trump administration unscathed.

She could have some home field competition when South Carolina Senator Tim Scott declares later this month.

And then there's Mike Pence.

He hasn't declared yet either, but he's strongly considering running.

After Trump's supporters stormed the capitol calling for his execution, Pence could emerge as the former president's loud critic.

But there's another Republican teasing a run that's already and very loudly criticizing Trump.

- Donald Trump is a TV star.

Nothing more, nothing less.

- Former New Jersey governor, Chris Christie, is no stranger to controversy between Bridgegate and the beach meme seen around the world, he's going to have an uphill battle for the nomination.

So will he or won't he?

Maybe we'll find out today.

I'm sitting down with Chris Christie to ask him about 2024, the issues defining the race, and what he thinks about where the Republican Party is headed.

Chris Christie, thanks so much for joining us on GZERO.

- My pleasure.

Thanks for having me in.

- So much stuff to talk about and that we want to get into.

But I want to start with the news of the day, the news of the week, which is the debt limit crisis.

How confident are you that this gets resolved without both parties looking really, really stupid?

- Well, look, I'm pretty confident it will be for two reasons.

One is the current shakiness of our economy to begin with.

Neither side can have confidence that, if in fact they will allow this to go to past the deadline, that it wouldn't have some real serious consequences for our economy and be really hurting Americans on an everyday basis.

So they don't have a lot of room for risk here given the current state of the economy.

And secondly, there has been an enormous amount of spending, starting with the Trump administration working its way all the way through to where we are with the Biden administration, and there is room to be able to reduce spending without doing a lot of harm or damage to anybody.

And so I think those two factors make me somewhat optimistic that they'll get it done.

- Does there at least need to be some level of direct market consequence, actual pain experienced, before one or both of those sides starts moving down?

Because you're saying it's a fear of the unknown, but right now the unknown doesn't feel so scary?

- Well, it depends on where you sit, right?

I mean, I think that if you're a person out there right now in the United States who is experiencing the inflation we've been experiencing, with how much more difficult it's to be able to afford to pay your bills over time.

The banking crisis has people nervous as well.

I don't think you want to put more uncertainty into this economy.

So I think it's that that will drive them to getting to a conclusion.

But obviously, these are human endeavors and human beings can make mistakes, and we could wind up having that happen.

I just don't think it's likely that it will.

- Okay, let's move to the fun bit, which is the presidential campaign.

I want to ask you, not if you're running.

I want to ask you if you were just Chris Christie watching yourself on TV over the last few weeks, with the comments that you've made, the statements when you made, would you say, "Hey, that guy sounds to me like he's running."

- What I'd say is that guy has something to say.

Now let's see what he does with it.

And I think that's always the key in politics.

There are two options.

You become a candidate or you stay on the outside of that process, but you try to influence it through things you're saying to the people who are candidates.

So what I would say about the guy who's been on TV the last few weeks is, he's definitely got something to say.

Let's see what he does with it.

- It sounds to me, if I were Chris Christie watching Chris Christie, I think you're running.

I'm just going to say that.

I'm just going to put it out there.

I want to know about Trump.

So you helped make Trump credible.

You certainly helped him on the debate stage.

You prepped him.

And you also briefly were involved, in a pretty senior way, on that team.

Do you feel any level of personal responsibility, maybe even culpability, for the fact that this guy right now looks like he's going to be, or at least is on track to be, the nominee for the party?

- No, I don't because I've been speaking out against what the former president's been saying since election night of 2020.

So it's been nearly two and a half years now of being pretty consistent in speaking out against what he has said about the election, the actions he took in the immediate aftermath of the election, the lack of action he took on January 6th, and the things that he's continued to say since then, including his conduct around the 2022 election.

So no, I think there's a statute of limitations on all that.

And ultimately the person who is culpable or responsible for Donald Trump is Donald Trump.

- I would say conventional wisdom in the Republican Party, tell me if I'm wrong, three months ago, was that if Trump gets the nomination and if he wins, he's going to have a team of clowns around him as opposed to a team of very competent people, mostly last time around, because of everything that's happened since.

It feels to me that that is increasingly shifting towards if he gets the nomination, almost all of the GOP, yourself excluded, notably, would be aligned with him.

Is that wrong?

- I think it's much too early to tell because what's going to be a campaign that's going to come in the midst of all that, and how he conducts himself and what he does will determine a lot of the way people feel.

But I think that given the way he's treated, the people that have worked for him over time, whether it's Reince Priebus, or John Kelly, or Mick Mulvaney, or H. R. McMaster, or John Bolton in the White House team, or Anthony Scaramucci for that matter, who he gave 11 days to, or have been members of his cabinet and what he's called them afterwards.

The things he said about Elaine Chao, the things that he has said about Betsy DeVos, I think there's going to be a lot of people who would be very reluctant to ever work for someone like that, again.

And it's the reason why I never took a job from him.

- How do you think the Republicans that are either declared, or seem to be about to declare, again yourself completely excluded from this, have actually conducted themselves so far?

Talk about Mike Pence with me, for example.

- Well, Mike's not in the race yet.

So I think with all of them, quite frankly, there really hasn't been a campaign yet.

And I don't think there's going to be a campaign until August when the first debate occurs.

And I think that's when the campaign will really kick off.

I'm concerned that none of the folks that are currently in the race, or rumored to be in it, are taking on Trump directly.

I think that's a mistake both from a good of the party perspective, and quite frankly, I think it's a tactical mistake as well.

- Why is it a tactical mistake?

- Because I don't believe in this lane business, that everybody has different lanes.

I think there's one lane to the nomination, and right now Donald Trump's in the front of that lane.

And if you want to get in the front of that lane, you better intervene and go right through him.

Because otherwise trying to go around him or trying to sidle up next to him and hope that his car runs off the road, I don't think is a strategy.

Hope is not a strategy.

- So leaving aside Trump for a moment, which is always fun to do, can we talk about policy and where you think the GOP needs to be on policy that they are not right now?

- Sure.

I mean, look, there's a number of things.

We've got to get back to being the fiscally responsible party.

The level of debt and deficit that we ran up under Donald Trump, and a Republican Congress in the first two years, just unconscionable.

And we're paying the price in part for that, and the even more excessive Biden spending.

We've got to become the fiscally responsible party once again.

I think secondly, we have to be the party that remembers that America's strength, economically, comes from its friendships around the world, and we need to make sure that we work hard to try to reestablish those.

That we cannot be the party that fills in the moat and pulls up the drawbridge, and thinks that America and the world are going to be the same after we do that.

I think that's a mistake for us.

I think we need to be the party, once again, that talks about fixing the immigration system because if you don't fix the immigration system, all the wrong people are going to keep getting in and all the right people are going to be kept out in my view.

So those are some things that we need to talk about.

And we need to be the party that talks about empowering parents in education, giving them choices, giving their children choices in their education.

We should not be allowing bureaucrats to decide that.

So I think those are things that we should be talking about, that in the main, we're not.

- You did not mention the culture wars, which seem to be getting so much play in so many of the policy conversations that we're having right now, whether it's about transgender rights, or it's about Disney and book banning, and all the rest.

Obviously everyone's going to get asked about those questions.

What does a former governor of New Jersey say when those issues come up?

- I talk about those in the context of the other issues that I mentioned to you.

So when you're talking about putting parents in charge of children's education, I do think parents should generally be charged with the idea of what their children learn or don't learn about sex and sexuality between the kindergarten and the third grade.

I don't think that's something I want a teacher or a principal or a school administrator deciding.

I think parents should decide that.

I think each of those issues become important, but only in the context of larger issues.

And I think that mistakes like Governor DeSantis is with taking on Disney, the mistake becomes, you didn't take a conservative position.

Conservatives don't believe that you should use the power and the levers of government to try to make sure that you punish someone for speech that you don't like.

I always was taught that's what liberals did.

And so when you take those kind of anti-conservative positions like he did on that, those are things that I'll talk about in those contexts.

They're important, but in and of themselves, I think you can't look at those things.

You have to look at them as part of, how do they affect an individual part of, let's say, our business community and how this woke business is affecting them, and then our educational community and how it's affecting them.

- No, I mean since you're not a candidate at this point, how would you advise DeSantis to get out of this Disney hole?

- I think it's almost too late for him now, unless he can negotiate some type of arrangement with them.

I think he should have never done it in the first place.

And then once Disney made their counter move, out foxing him down there on the governance issue, he should have just let it go.

But instead he is going to continue to push it and up the ante, and I think that's just a mistake.

I think it's anti-conservative.

I think it's a mistake.

- Okay.

Let's talk about abortion.

The Republicans are also getting hammered on that.

It's obviously not a position that most the GOP is in alliance with the average voter.

In many cases, not even the average Republican voters.

We see these votes that are playing out state by state.

What do you do as someone who represents a pretty diverse state like New Jersey?

What's the position on that issue?

- I think each state should make their own decision on this stuff.

As conservatives, we fought for 50 years to get the federal government out of the abortion question and return that question to the states.

Now we achieved that through the Dobbs decision, the Supreme Court, and somehow we're now saying the federal government should get back involved.

I don't think they should be involved.

I think each state should make their own determination.

- [Ian] Do you think that abortion should be banned in the state of New Jersey?

- I think the state of New Jersey and the people of the state of New Jersey should make the determination themselves as to what should happen.

I've always been a person who's believed in exceptions for rape and incest, and life of the mother.

And I've said that both when I ran for governor back in 2009, and my position's always been consistent on that.

In the end, Ian, I think we've worked hard, as conservatives, to get the Supreme Court to give the states the right to make those decisions, but each state should be able to make that determination.

And then we'll be able to see what really forms as a national consensus from looking at how all the states conduct themselves.

- So I mean, again, I'm sensitive to the fact that this is not an easy question to answer, but assuming that New Jersey is kind of aligned more with the country on this and wants abortions, say, to be legal for some 12, 15 weeks, something like that, that's a position you'd be comfortable with.

- But listen, my view on it is, I'd be comfortable with allowing the people of New Jersey to make that call themselves.

We haven't done that.

We've had our state legislature do it.

And I don't know where the people of the state really are on this issue, Ian.

- All right, do you mind, can we get the foreign policy for a moment?

- Absolutely.

- So in China, you see Jake Sullivan came out with a big policy last week, new Washington consensus.

It seems like one of the few things that Democrats and Republicans agree on right now is a harder line on the second largest, most think soon to be the largest, economy in the world.

Where do you think American policy should be in level of engagement with, integration with, and sanctions against China?

- Well, look, I think that what we need to do is to let the Chinese know that we're willing to play with them, but we have to play a game that's fair.

So for instance, when you hear people now talking about banning TikTok, I'm for banning TikTok from this country as well, but I'm for banning TikTok because they don't allow Facebook and Twitter, and all those things into China.

If they want to have a fair exchange of ideas, a fair exchange of products, a fair exchange of intellectual property, I'm all for that, but it's got to be fair.

Those things are not fair.

I think we have to make very clear to them that their adventurism around the world is not something that we're going to look kindly upon, not something that we favor.

The trade deals have been made, including the Trump trade deal with China, was not a good deal for the United States, and we should be looking to make better deals with China than the ones that have been made previously, particularly in the Trump administration.

But I do think that, in the end, we are in a proxy war right now with China, whether we like it or not.

I think what's going on in Ukraine and their support of Russia in Ukraine is proof of that.

And that's another area where we have to make sure we send a very clear message not only to the Chinese, Ian, but to our own allies, that America's not going to be a cut and run country.

Because if we continue to show that inclination, I think a lot of our friends are going to be looking for other friends.

- It sounds like you're very comfortable with the level of military support, as well as the level of economic sanctions, for Ukraine and of the Russians over the last 14, 15 months.

- I am.

I would've done more sooner with Ukraine on the defense of weapons situation, but that's water over the dam now.

So I think we have to make sure that we give them the tools they need to get this thing to a resolution.

- So going forward, the next 1, 2, 3 years minimum, if that's what it takes, the United States should remain in the lead in providing military equipment to the Ukrainians?

- Yes.

- A little bit on the economy.

When we think about where inflation is right now, when we think about where unemployment is right now, around the world, most people are saying the Americans are the most robust of the G7 economies, in the way that we've responded to the pandemic and also in terms of the outlook going forward.

And yet when you ask the average American, their level of confidence about their own situation seems markedly more negative.

Is this sort of disinformation environment, is this a reflection of a real phenomenon?

What do you think's behind it?

- It's reality, Ian.

Look, two things can be correct at the same time.

We could have the most robust recovery from COVID amongst the G7 and have the most robust economy amongst the G7, but it still could be in a situation where the American people are not satisfied.

And I think the key to that is inflation, and I think that's what people in America are experiencing every day.

So while you see pretty good job numbers in the last jobs report, and you see objective indicia of the economy doing certainly better than lots of other places across the world, when you're an American citizen and you're going into a supermarket, into a drug store, into a hardware store, and you're seeing what the prices of items are and how much more they're now than they were before Joe Biden became president, that's what determines when they think things are going well for them or not.

Not all this other more objective data.

- Let me just let you go back a little bit.

We talked about Trump, we haven't talked about Biden.

So much of the Biden criticism from the right has been, the guy is too old, his health is not going to hold up.

Is that fair?

- It's fair.

And it's fair because all you need to do is look at him, Ian, and come to that conclusion.

I've known Joe Biden now for 40 years.

I met him when I was a sophomore at the University of Delaware and known him ever since.

And this is not the same Joe Biden, and it's not just because he's old.

His aging has significantly impacted his ability to do this job.

And I think if you watch him at press conferences, if you watch him in gaggles with reporters, if you watch him on the world stage, this is a guy who looks every bit of his 80 years.

And I think given how hard this job is, how taxing it is on you physically, psychologically, emotionally, I just don't think he's competent for it at this age.

No one beats father time, Ian.

And I think given that we've never had a president the age that he is now, let alone asking for another four years, which would take him to 86, I think is an absolutely relevant issue and one that needs to be discussed thoroughly, and that the American people have a good understanding of, before they make a decision in '24.

- So you're a fighter, if you're in the ring with Donald Trump, as we look forward to the GOP nomination, what's his glass jaw?

Where's he most vulnerable?

- Look, I think that he failed in so many of the things that he promised he would do.

This is a guy who said he would repeal and replace Obamacare.

He had a Republican Congress, he didn't get it done.

This is a guy who said he was going to build a wall across the entire border with Mexico.

He got nowhere near getting it done.

He said that Mexico would pay for it.

We're still waiting for our first peso on that one.

He said he was going to balance the budget in five years.

He left with the worst deficit any president's ever left with.

He said he was going to retire the national debt in eight years.

We're at $31 trillion.

And he also criticized Barack Obama for playing too much golf, and he played 260 rounds of golf in four years.

So this is a guy who did not keep a lot of the promises that he made to the American people, and to Republican voters in particular, in 2016.

I was on that stage when he is making those promises.

And if I were to run, I would hold him to account for not fulfilling them.

- Good stuff.

Chris Christie, great to be with you and I'm sure I'll see you soon.

- Absolutely, Ian.

Thanks a lot.

[light music] - And now we head to Kyiv, where President Zelenskyy is throwing the least surprising surprise party in the history of surprise parties.

Where's my invitation?

[phone rings] - [Putin] This is Kremlin.

What do you want?

- Hello, Putin.

- Hello, Newman.

I mean Zelenskyy.

What a surprise.

- Yes.

Speaking of surprises, I'm calling to tell you that I've been planning for you a surprise party.

- How is it a surprise if you're telling me about it?

- I can't tell you details, but know that such surprise has been months in making.

And now that it is spring, I am nearly ready to deploy party plan.

- This is not how you throw a surprise party.

I think you are confused.

- Just wait until you see all such incredible presents I have been gathering for you from my friends.

Tanks full of delicious refreshments, many bomb presents.

They're going to rocket your world.

- I'm very aware of such presence.

You know, all of your speeches are televised.

- I know none of you are coming to party, but as Churchill said, please contribute to expenses.

I can't do this alone.

- When I'm going to do something, I spent months saying I will not do it.

Even after I did it, like the party I threw you last year.

Remember?

- Oh, I remember.

And how did that party go for you?

- Well, it was definitely surprising.

♪ Puppet Regime ♪ - That's our show this week.

Come back next week if you like what you see.

Even if you don't, but you're wondering, "Hey, who else is going to declare for GOP nominee?"

Check us out at gzeromedia.com.

[bright music] [bright music continues] [bright music continues] [light music] - [Announcer] Major corporate funding provided by founding sponsor, First Republic.

At First Republic, our clients come first.

Taking the time to listen helps us provide customized banking and wealth management solutions.

More on our clients at firstrepublic.com.

Additional funding provided by Jerre and Mary Joy Stead, Carnegie Corporation of New York, Prologis, and by.

[light music]