and finally tonight it is safe to say the Groundhog's prediction about six more weeks of winter that was more than a little off we've seen unseasonably warm temperatures very little snow and earlier this week an ef2 tornado in Mercer County it's mostly linked to a la nina climate pattern according to weather experts but I asked New Jersey state climatologist David Robinson if there are bigger factors at play he joins me now as part of our ongoing series Peril and promise focusing on the human stories of climate change David I don't even know where to begin with this winter weather to call it an oddity I guess would be accurate but I guess all I can ask is what gives right now this this has been one wild winter a winterless winter in summer specs but one of great persistence we've been warm um we've had enough precipitation but it's been in the form of rain because it's one of the least snowy Winters on record and then go toss in a couple short-lived cold waves and then a tornado earlier this week so you know mix it up and throw throw the dice out there and see what's going to come up next well I had to go back and check just to see how rare a February tornado is it looks like thanks to all of your data we've had a few over the last you know 50 60 70 odd years not many though so what is that indicative of we all love to talk about the planet warming and how that's affecting weather patterns but is it now it's a weather Oddity we've not seen back to 1950 we've not seen a December or January tornado and this was if if the count is right the fifth February tornado and by far the longest tornado in terms of its track almost six miles the others were a half mile or less so this was uh just an oddity and tornadoes are so rare in New Jersey that there's no Rhyme or Reason there's no signal in having one or not having one it just tells us that this week There's been an atmosphere loaded with energy not just in New Jersey but across the whole country but does lack of snow have any factor in in seeing a tornado in February how much does that play into it if at all it's really interesting because there were three tornadoes in February in one day in 1973 and that was our least snowy winter in New Jersey in over a century but I think it's more coincidence than anything although it is indicative of how warm it's been this winter much warmer than the winter of 73. we're going to end with one of the three or four warmest Winters on record after the warmest January and probably the fifth warm is February December was on the cool side so yeah it's somewhat indicative of it's been warm there's been a lack of snow and as such you've gotten more of a spring-like energy pattern in the atmosphere leading us to a February tornado is this what we should expect future Winters to look like if if you do look ahead this is indicative of the type of winters we expect in the future as the planet warms as New Jersey warms will become more spring-like as we get towards the end of winter and with that we might expect these spring-like storms more often yeah my allergies are telling me that so David Robinson thank you so much lead funding for Peril and promise is provided by Dr p Roy vagalos and Diana T vagalos major support is provided by the mark Haas foundation and Sue and Edgar wachenheim III and the Cheryl and Philip milstein family [Music]