crime in the U.S. than there was a year That's despite clear data showing violent crime## has actually dropped sharply in# 2023.

So, why the Economics correspondent Paul Solman takes a deep## dive into one type of crime that# may be getting outsized PA UL SOLMAN: OK, a question for you: Is retail# theft running rampant in America these days?

JERICKA DUNCAN, CBS News: Flash# mob robberies across Los Angeles.

MAN: Just the latest in retail theft crime ri WOMAN: Retailers say this type of# crime is reaching unprecedente JIM COOPER, Sacramento County,# California, Sheriff: It is up massive.

PAUL SOLMAN: Sheriff Jim Cooper JIM COOPER: It's not even the drip,# drip, drip.

It is the faucets full on,## where these folks go in daily and# steal merchandise from stores.

PAUL SOLMAN: Last month, Cooper took to# social media to blast big box retailers## for ignoring shoplifting and California's# laws for being too soft on retail crime.

To prove his point, Cooper sent dozens# of detectives on a weeklong crackdown,## netting 285 arrests, recovering tens of# thousands of dollars in stolen merchandise.

JIM COOPER: We have people going just# from store to store to store.

So it's## very frustrating on law enforcement's part and# really the public.

The pub PAUL SOLMAN: But is it really?

Well,# we reached out to our public, online.

VICTORIA, West Virginia: I have a part-time# job at the local quilt and sewing shop,## and we are seeing an increase in theft.

PAUL SOLMAN: Victoria in Athens, West# Virginia, says yes, Carlto CARLTON, Ohio: I think all the# coverage reinforces an idea in## people's head that it's a bigger# problem than maybe it really is.

PAUL SOLMAN: So which is it?

JEFF ASHER, AH Datalytic inherently that retail theft is going# down, but that we don' to support that there's a rise,# especially a surge, in retail theft.

PAUL SOLMAN: One problem, says# crime researcher Jeff Asher,## is that news and social media# overdramatize the issue.

JEFF ASHER: These problems are getting more# press, more discussion.

I think some of that## might be just a focus on a crime with# poor data.

If you have a viral video,## you have a large-scale theft or a theft# that turns into a violent incident,## it gets hundreds of thousands or# millions of clicks, millions of views.

PAUL SOLMAN: But it's also retailers themselves# blaring the alarm and locking aisles upon aisles## of items behind Plexiglas.

And there's# the phrase were now hearing quite often,## organized retail crime, troupes of thieves# swiping merchandise, and reselling it.

Earlier this year, Target cited theft to# explain closing nine stores nationwide.## But multiple analyses showed less# crime at Target locations that closed,## compared to ones nearby that stayed open.

Target# didn't respond to our request for comment.

And Jeff Asher points to a report from the Council# on Criminal Justice, which showed, in most cities## that kept good track of the data, retail theft is# actually lower this year than before the pandemic.

So why the disconnect?

Underreporting, perhaps,## but also stores or cities with outsized# increases may be getting outsized attention Are you suspicious of the narrative that# retail theft has increased significantly?

NEIL SAUNDERS, GlobalData Retail: I'm# not suspicious of it.

I just wish that## there were some very solid numbers to back it up.

PAUL SOLMAN: Neil Saunders is a# retail analyst with GlobalData.

NEIL SAUNDERS: I think one of the reasons# retailers provides a narrative for things that are# happening elsewhere in the financials.

So we have had a lot of retailers# this year, for example, saying, well,## our profitability is slightly down,# our margins are slightly down.

One of## the reasons for that is because# rates of theft have increased.

PAUL SOLMAN: Saunders says companies rarely give# very detailed data on how much inventory they hav lost, what's known as shrink.

While shrink# includes theft by customers and employees,## it also includes supply that may have been lost# in transit or left in a warehouse somewhere.

And, yes, data from the National Retail# Federation, the industry's main lobbying group,## shows shrink up in 2022, but barely, and still# in line with 2019 and 2020.

Earlier this month,## the federation actually had to retract an estimate# that organized retail crime accounted for nearly## half of all shrink in 2021.

According to one# analysis, it was actually more like 5 percent.

In a statement to the "NewsHour," the federation# acknowledged the -- quote -- "lack of conclusive## data on the scale of retail theft,"# but countered that the industry is## spending billions to increase security, however# inconvenient to shoppers and damaging to sa Quote: "It defies logic to suggest that all# this money and energy is being invested to## attack an imaginary problem or to serve# a convenient narrative" -- unquote.

And, indeed, workers at three# Macy's stores outside Seattle,## at least, agree.

Hundreds went on# strike over Black Friday weekend,## saying the company wasn't doing# enough to protect them from thieves.

Union worker Azia Domingo.

AZIA DOMINGO, Macy's Employee: We don't know what's going to happen.

And it's# that f have the tools to be able to safely take care of# ourselves, to safely take care of our customers.

PAUL SOLMAN: Macy's response,## it -- quote -- " And it says it is negotiating# the issue with the union.

JIM COOPER: Retail theft is a big issue right now.

PAUL SOLMAN: And in Sacramento, Sheriff Jim# even though data from California's Department# of Justice shows shoplifting in the county## last year was below pre-COVID# levels and way below a decade ago.

JIM COOPER: Having been this job for 31 years,## DOJ's data is inaccurate.

Number one The public's not reporting crimes.

These# big box retailers aren't reporting crimes.

So, if no ones filing on it, you have# no idea what the issues are.

And that's## really what it comes down to.

It's# not down.

It hasn't been down.

PAUL SOLMAN: For what it's# worth, our public's response to,## do you feel retail theft is a# significant issue in your mo re than 60 percent said no.

But# that still left a lot of yeses.

Sure, our responses are just so-called anecdata,## but their ambiguity does jibe with retail# analyst Neil Saunders' overall assessment.

NEIL SAUNDERS: I think it's# probably fair to say there is## more theft than there used to be.

The# big question which we can' exactly how much more is there# and how much of a problem is it?

I think those are the very big questions that## remain open.

And we don't have# a clear view on those things.

PAUL SOLMAN: But one thing# does seem clear.

Viral video## views are not a reliable answer to the question.

For the "PBS NewsHour," Paul Solman.