Gene: ON THIS MONTH'S EPISODE OF OUR LAND, WE LOOK BACK TO 2018 AND FIND A TROUBLING PREDICTION ALREADY PLAYING OUT TODAY.

THEN THE RIO GRANDE DRIED IN APRIL FOLLOWING A WARM, DRY WINTER.

AT THAT TIME CORRESPONDENT LAURA PASKUS SPOKE WITH SCIENTISTS WHOSE RESEARCH SHOWED HOW CLIMATE CHANGE IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE AMOUNT OF STREAM FLOW IN THE RIO GRANDE THAT COMES FROM SNOW MELT IN THE SPRING.

BEFORE WE GET INTO THE PIECE, WHAT ARE YOU SEEING THIS YEAR?

Laura: SO, THIS YEAR WE ARE SEEING REALLY LOW STREAM FLOWS COMPARED TO HISTORICAL AVERAGE THROUGH ALBUQUERQUE, IT IS A FIFTH OF WHAT WE SHOULD BE SEEING THIS TIME OF YEAR, EVEN THOUGH WE HAD A PRETTY DECENT SNOW PACK OVER THE WINTER.

Gene: DOES THIS LOOK LIKE IT IS CLIMATE CHANGE RELATED?

ARE YOU ABLE TO PIN THAT DOWN?

Laura: IT DOES.

SCIENTISTS HAVE BEEN PAYING ATTENTION TO THIS TREND FOR A WHILE WHERE WE SEE EVEN IN YEARS WHERE WE MIGHT HAVE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL SNOW PACK, THE RUNOFF ITSELF ISN'T GREAT BECAUSE WE ARE SEEING EARLIER SNOW MELT, HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND, OF COURSE, THE WARMER IT IS THE MORE THE SOIL AND FOREST AND FIELDS NEED TO SUCK UP SOME OF THAT WATER.

SO, THIS YEAR, IT IS PRETTY TYPICAL OF WHAT WE'LL SEE IN THE COMING YEARS AGAIN AND AGAIN.

Gene: THANK YOU.

HERE IS OUR LAND.

Laura: THIS TIME OF YEAR ON THE RIO GRANDE, WE SHOULD BE SEEING MUCH HIGHER FLOWS THAN WE ARE RIGHT NOW.

SOUTH OF ALBUQUERQUE THE RIVER IS EVEN DRIED IN PLACES.

BUT SCIENTISTS ARE NOT SURPRISED THAT THIS IS HAPPENING.

IN A NEW PAPER BY CHAVARRIA AND GUTZLER, THEY TALK ABOUT WHY THIS IS HAPPENING AND WHAT WE CAN EXPECT IN THE FUTURE.

Chavarria: WE SEE BIG CHANGES IN THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING.

SO, BIG CHANGES IN WINTER TEMPERATURE, INCREASES IN WINTER SPRING TIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

Gutzler: AT THE SAME TIME THAT OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED, WE ARE RETHINKING THE WAY THAT THE DIFFERENT COMPONENTS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM FIT TOGETHER IN A NEW CLIMATE THAT IS UNAMBIGUOUSLY GETTING WARMER.

Laura: UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO PROFESSOR DAVID GUTZLER STUDIED CLIMATE CHANGE FOR MORE THAN TWO DECADES.

RIGHT NOW HE SAYS THIS DATA IS ABOUT THREE DEGREES WARMER THAN IT WAS DURING THE 1970'S.

THOSE CHANGES ARE SEEN IN EXTREME.

WINTERS AREN'T AS COLD AND MORE SUMMER DAYS ARE VERY HOT EVEN BY NEW MEXICO STANDARDS.

THAT WARNING TREND OVER TIME IS DIFFERENT FROM VARIABILITY OR YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES.

Gutzler: NEW MEXICO IS A VARIABLE CLIMATE SO FOR MILLENNIA, WE HAVE SEEN WET PERIODS AND DRY PERIODS ON THE ORDER OF DECADES.

WHAT IS NOT SO NORMAL BY HISTORICAL STANDARD IS HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN.

AND SO LOOKING FORWARD WE NEED TO PLAN FOR A TIME WHEN WE HAVE WET SPELLS AND DRY SPELLS THAT CAN LAST FOR MANY YEARS ALL IN THE CONTEXT OF A WARMER CLIMATE, WHICH MEANS LESS SNOW PACK AND DIMINISHED SURFACE WATER RECHARGE AND LESS SURFACE WATER FLOWING DOWN THE RIVERS DURING THE DROUGHT PERIOD.

AND THE EFFECT OF WARMER TEMPERATURES ON DROUGHT PERIOD IS TO MAKE EXTREME DROUGHT EVEN MORE SEVERE BY INCREASING EVAPORATION RATES AND DRYING OUT THE SOIL, MELTING THE SNOW.

Laura: MANY NEW MEXICO COMMUNITIES ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

INCLUDING THOSE AROUND THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS WHICH HAVE BEEN HIT BY DROUGHT, THEN FIRES AND LATER BY POST-FIRE FLOODING.

CHAVARRIA IS FROM THE PUEBLO OF SANTA CLARA, SHE IS A RECENT GRADUATE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO.

HER MASTERS WORK FOCUSED ON THE EFFECT OF WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW PACK AND STREAM FLOWS.

Chavarria: MY PEOPLE ARE SANTA CLARA PEOPLE, AND OUR TRADITIONS REVOLVE AROUND THE SEASONS AND REVOLVE AROUND THE WATER THAT WE GET FROM THE RIVER.

WE HAVE SEEN A LOT OF CHANGES IN OUR AREA ESPECIALLY WITH THE FIRES THAT HAVE IMPACTED OUR WATERSHEDS.

WE HAVE HAD MULTIPLE FIRES THAT HAVE HIT SANTA CLARA PUEBLO BUT THE MOST RECENT FIRE, LOS CONCHAS, WAS A REALLY DEVASTATING FIRE.

IT BURNED A MAJOR PORTION OF THE SANTA CLARA CANYON AREA WHICH IS THE HEADWATERS OF THE SANTA CLARA PUEBLO.

Laura: HAVING LIVED ON THESE LANDS FOR GENERATIONS, PUEBLO PEOPLE KNOW CHANGE IS HAPPENING AND WHILE THEY ARE STILL DEALING WITH CURRENT FIRES AND FLOODS, MORE IS LIKELY COMING.

Chavarria: EVERYTHING WORKS TOGETHER.

IF I DO SOMETHING, IT HAS AN IMPACT ON SOMETHING ELSE WHICH IS GOING TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON SOMETHING ELSE.

SO, IF I DEGRADE THE ENVIRONMENT, IT IS GOING TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON FUTURE GENERATIONS.

Gutzler: FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST IS THAT WATER RESOURCES WILL BE STRESSED.

WE WON'T LITERALLY RUN OUT OF WATER BY ANY MEANS BUT THE WAYS WE HAVE MANAGED WATER IN THE PAST MAY NOT WORK TO PROVIDE ALL THE WATER THAT PEOPLE THINK THEY NEED IN THE FUTURE.

AND THE SOONER WE PLAN FOR THAT, THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE THAT WE'LL END UP MANAGING WATER IN A WAY THAT DOES SATISFY PEOPLES' NEEDS AS WE DEFINE THOSE NEEDS IN THE FUTURE.

Laura: LAWYER ALREADY IN APRIL, WHEN THE RIVER SHOULD BE RUNNING HIGH WITH SNOW MELT MORE THAN 10 MILES OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE SOUTH OF SOCORRO HAVE DRIED.

EVEN IN ALBUQUERQUE, THE RIVER IS DOWN TO LEVELS USUALLY SEEN DURING THE HOTTEST, DRYEST WEEKS OF SUMMER.

FOR NEW MEXICO IN FOCUS, AND OUR LAND, I AM LAURA PASKUS.