Beat with Raven Santana" provided by NJMEP, a partner to New Jersey's manufacturing industry, focused on productivity, performance, and strategic development.

More on NJMEP.org.

♪ Announcer: this is "NJ Biz Beat with Raven Santana."

Raven: Thanks for joining me.

This time next week, the holiday rush will be underway.

Many will head out on Black Friday.

Others will shop on Cyber Monday.

Or maybe you have already done your shopping.

However you shop, the National retail Federation expects us to spend 960 $6 billion this holiday season.

That is up 4% over last year.

Close to 280 billion dollars of those sales will come online.

That is an increase compared to 2022.

But a new survey finds families plan to spend 5% less on gifts.

About 591 dollars on average.

And 69% of those surveyed say they will cut back, with 52 percent saying they will not exchange gifts with other adults.

We wanted to dig into the shopping trends this holiday season and understand how inflation will impact sales.

I spoke with Jill Standish about what they found in their survey.

You said this holiday season will be a very human holiday.

What do you mean by that?

Jill: When we did our survey of 1500 consumers and 120 retail execs, there was a big theme around cutting back, getting practical.

I would like to call it creative pragmatism in the system right now.

Consumers are cutting back, but they also want to spend time with their family and friends.

I think that is a really good story.

Let's be human again.

Raven: Let's talk about the survey.

Respondents said they plan on cutting spending across the board.

I felt this was interesting.

From not exchanging gifts with other adults, preparing less elaborate meals, and using fewer decorative lights in an attempt to save money.

IIs this a big change from previous years when consumers were concerned about finances?

Jill: We have been seeing this throughout the year with interest rates where they are and inflation having a big impact.

I think units have been down.

Consumers are being driven by price right now.

They are looking for a deal.

Another thing we noticed, people did not start early.

In the past, if you remember seeing Black Friday sales and that started as early as August, now over 56% of respondents said they would not start until the end of October starting in November.

We are back to what I call the Golden quarter, which is the last few weeks of the season which is really a big deal for retailers today.

Raven: I am glad you mentioned Black Friday.

When consumers find it really easy to shop online, it is convenience, at the comfort of their homes.

Your survey found nearly 50% of retail executives say they plan to introduce a number of initiatives to lure shoppers back into stores.

Tell us about what they are planning.

Jill: You are right.

The store is back, by the way, which is lovely.

During COVID, there was this thing, is retail dead?

Are people ever going to go back to stores?

Our surveys found that customers want to go back to stores.

In New Jersey, there is a lot of investment going on with retailers doing some fun things in your state.

If you look at what Whole Foods is doing, opening up a big store in Jersey City, Toys "R" Us has a big flagship coming back.

I would like to say that stores are back, which is lovely.

I don't know if you know this, but Black Friday is actually a term that means they are making a profit.

Retailers are really botching how they are doing their advertising, their promotions to make sure they are getting back into the black.

Raven: Another reason I love "Biz Beat," educating our viewers.

[laughter] You touched on this a little.

Another trend is this return to peak shopping season and set up a longer shopping season.

Let's elaborate a little more.

Why do you think consumers are putting off holiday shopping this year?

Jill: This gets back to the creative pragmatism.

If you are balancing your budget every month, then you are also going to say, what do gas prices look like?

What do my utility bills look like?

Waiting until you get an understanding of what you are going to have with disposable income I think is important.

People are planning better.

I also think with this idea of human holiday, our respondents said they will not be giving gifts to adults.

Over 56% said, let's just go back to the kids, which I thought was an interesting finding.

Back to that creative pragmatism again.

Raven: Absolutely.

We touched on Black Friday.

I want to talk about Cyber Monday or cyber week.

Any predictions?

Jill: Certainly most retailers took the time over the past two or three years to get their omni-Channel capability online.

What actually happens with that order, tracking that order through the system?

Much of that technology is there for retailers today.

I think we will see a lot of people looking on Cyber Monday for deals, but it also means that convenience and cost are going to play.

If it is cheaper for you to pick it up at the store, they might be doing that buy online and pick up in-store play.

Most consumers are watching their budget.

So, the technology will be a big play on Cyber Monday and throughout the holiday.

Raven: For people watching, what would be some key takeaways for those heading into the holiday season wanting to do some shopping in person?

What would be the best time?

Jill: Listen, I think going when people are at work is always a good time.

[laughter] If you don't want to see a crowd.

I do think we are going to see this next couple of weeks are going to be telling, and it also matters with the weather.

If the weather holds and it is not storming and it is not freezing here in the Northeast, I think you will see a lot of people going out and going back to stores, which will be lovely.

Raven: Great point.

Thank you so much, and thank you for joining me on "Biz Beat."

Jill: Thanks.

Nice to see you.

Thanks for having me.

Raven: When shoppers head out on Black Friday, many will line up across New Jersey searching for the best bargain.

The team at Menlo Park Mall is trying to entice more shoppers to ditch online shopping and experience the holiday rush at the mall, offering extended hours and special events.

I visited Menlo Park Mall this week and spoke with the mall's director of marketing and business development.

We spoke about their expectations for the shopping season and why they think people need to shop in person.

Walking in, it is time for holiday shopping.

I can feel it walking into Menlo Park Mall.

I think people see this and don't realize this is months of preparing.

>> We are thrilled to invite shoppers to come back and rediscover the joy and the excitement of holiday shopping.

You feel the energy, you are immersed in it.

There is some delightful holiday happenings going on.

It is all here and magical here.

Raven: Tell me a little bit about what it takes to get into this festive mood.

I see decorations everywhere.

When do you start that?

>> The planning of it is probably in the summertime.

We start thinking about what is going to go where, and the physical part, literally Halloween, and all the decorations go up within a week.

[laughter] And we are primed and ready to go.

Raven: Let's talk about Black Friday.

How are you planning for Black Friday?

How are you planning for the holiday shopping season?

We are sitting in the hot spot.

The man of the hour is not here, but people will be lining up soon.

Tell me about that preparation.

>> We prepare months in advance and we are all set to go for Black Friday.

Santa is here ready to take photos with you.

Don't forget, he also takes photos with your pets as well.

On November 26 and December 10, your pets can take photos with Santa.

All of our staff is primed and ready to go.

Raven: This is also part of -- even though it is not December yet, you are getting ready as we head into Thanksgiving.

Santa is already here, and that is part of the lure to get people into the malls, is that right?

>> It is.

It is one of the traditions we have.

Seeing Santa, taking your time to get the photos with him.

It is a great feeling to engage with your family and friends shopping here.

Raven: Tell me about what Black Friday looked like last year here at Menlo Park Mall.

>> It was so busy.

Black Friday is the busiest day of the year, and it is full of excitement.

Everyone is ready to get their holiday shopping on.

They are engaged.

They want to touch it, they want to try it on, then they can just buy it.

It is like the immediate gratification, and that is what I see in the families who come and enjoy Menlo Park Mall.

Raven: Are you expecting that this year?

>> We are.

We definitely are.

We have seen some consumer reporting that 78 percent are taking advantage of those Black Friday sales, as well as about 77% are researching online first, and then coming in-store.

We also have a great tool, it is called find and search.

You can go online and check the inventory in the store at Menlo Park Mall before coming.

Raven: What I love most about Menlo Park Mall, it is a community Mall.

This is a Mall I go to, my kids get their pictures with Santa here.

But you really are immersed in this community.

Tell me about that give back.

>> We have Salvation Army.

They've got their Angel tree where you can make a wish come true, and also toys for tots.

You can donate off the centre court.

And some other ways's we have performances, high school choir and jazz performances all season long.

That gets very festive.

As well as we as a mall employ thousands of people here locally , and also we provide about 8.2 million dollars in property taxes for the community that goes back to the schools and to law enforcement.

We truly are the community center of New Jersey.

Raven: What I love is you have a little bit of everything here.

You have some high-end stores, you have your medium stores, and you have some boutique shops.

>> Absolutely.

Raven: When we think ahead to Cyber Monday, cyber week, people shopping at the convenience of their homes, is that going to impact holiday shopping this year?

Or do you think people want that experience?

>> I truly believe they want that in person experience.

We have so many amazing brands that just opened this year.

Abercrombie opened last week.

We have boxed lunch, which has great gifts for the kids.

We also have Selma, were B Parker -- Warby Parker.

We have so many brands that people want to come in and try it.

My kids love coming to the one stop shop.

My daughter wants to go to PacSun, my daughter wants to go to Hollister.

Just do it all in one stop.

Raven: And you have the food court.

>> We have tons of food.

We have Chick-fil-A, chipotle, amazing restaurants.

And also to just mention, I know it doesn't look like it, but Shake shack and true food kitchen is part of our Menlo Park family, and they are great dining experiences.

Raven: And you have a mini spa.

>> We do have amazing entertainment.

We have events.

They host beautiful, cute birthday parties.

We have the slime factory.

We have color me mine.

You can paint your pottery.

It is a great time.

Raven: As we look ahead and we think about that in person experience, tell me about some installments, some initiatives you are doing to really lure shoppers back into the mall.

>> You can get some great offers and deals by downloading the mobile app.

Also checking out our Facebook, our Instagram pages.

We offer so many great deals from our retailers that we plug and make sure our consumers are aware of, as well as I mentioned going out to Simon search.

Raven: I noticed I see a lot of 50% off sales.

Is that something else, a lot of different ways people may be lured in?

There's a lot of different sales going on?

>> There is.

All the retailers are primed up.

They have got some really good deals.

You can go online to check out the offers on our website.

They do have some great deals.

Raven: When we think about shopping and we think about security, people are worried about security.

What are you changing this year in terms of hours, in terms of making sure shoppers feel safe and they are able to move around comfortably?

>> Security is our utmost priority here at Menlo Park Mall.

We work very closely with Edison Police Department, and they go through team drills and skills all the time.

They are ready and waiting and all set.

Raven: Are you extending hours?

Many stores prepare ahead of the shopping season in different ways.

Sometimes they open up earlier.

Tell me about how Menlo Park mauled -- Menlo Park Mall does it.

>> We are at 10:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m., and Sundays we are 11:00 to 7:00 p.m. On Black Friday, we open up at 6:00 a.m. and close at 6:00 -- at 10:00 p.m..

The week of Christmas, we extend an earlier hour and stay open later.

Raven: Which part of all of that is your busiest shopping?

>> Are busiest shopping day, -- our busiest shopping day, Christmas Eve all the way up to Christmas.

The last week, you see the traffic that grows.

Parking lots are full.

Everyone has their shopping bags in hand.

I would say that.

Raven: Obviously it is a one-stop shop.

You can shop, eat a little, you can have some entertainment.

What are tips you would like to give shoppers who are ready to head out for their holiday shopping?

>> Three tips.

I would say come early, where comfortable sneakers, and be hungry.

We have great food.

Make a day of it.

Raven: What is your favorite part of all this?

>> My favorite part?

I have to say seeing the kids see Santa.

Their eyes light up.

Raven: thank you for joining me on "Biz Beat."

I appreciate it.

If you are celebrating Christmas, expect to pay more if you are getting a real Christmas tree.

A real Christmas tree will set you back between $80 and $100 this year.

That is up from an average price of $80 last year.

Wholesale suppliers say they have had to raise their rates about 15%, and those costs are being passed on to the consumer.

It is not all about gift giving this holiday season.

Many of us will gather with family and friends for celebrations by putting food at the table.

It will cost more this year.

While retail turkey prices are down 9%, ham prices are up 5%, according to Wells Fargo.

And of those fixings are pricier, too.

Potatoes are up 14%, and canned pumpkin are up 30%.

I sat down with Courtney Berger Smith from Wells Fargo to discuss the report on driving holiday costs and alternatives for those looking to save money.

Let's talk about Wells Fargo's annual report.

Are people going to be spending or saving more this Thanksgiving, and why?

>> It is really going to be a mixed pricing when you go into the store this year to buy your favorite Thanksgiving foods.

You are going to be looking at some foods that are higher and some lower in costs.

But a real bright spot we are seeing is on the turkey side.

We are seeing turkey costs down 16% this year, and that is because grocery stores are being more competitive with their ads.

They are trying to get consumers in the door.

We are seeing them lower those prices.

We also have more turkeys in stock this year.

That will be a plus as you go for your Thanksgiving day foods.

Raven: Oh yeah.

You can't beat that.

That is the main attraction.

If you are like me, you rack up the points from ShopRite and you get the free turkey.

But that is not the case for everyone.

I mention this because let's go about when we talk about what prices will look like when we are thinking about food.

>> I am glad you brought that up.

If you are going to go on the fresh side for produce this year, we are seeing some benefits there, too.

If you think about romaine lettuce, we are down 10%.

If you are shopping for fresh cranberries, that is down 20% this year.

Some other good values are your sweet potatoes and green beans.

Where you are going to be spending a little more money is on the canned side.

We are seeing canned produce up, and that is because there has been a lag in the costs.

A lot of the canned products were canned several months ago when prices were higher.

There has been that lag in the inflationary costs.

Expect your canned foods to be higher this year.

Raven: How about items like ham?

>> We are not seeing the softness yet in the ham.

We had ham prices up 5% this year when you go to the grocery store.

As we continue to see more competition with the retailers, that may often as we get closer to the holiday.

But you will be spending more for ham this year.

Raven: And what about dessert?

>> Ah, your dessert.

One of my favorites is pumpkin pie.

Going back to the canned products, which typically most people make their pie out of a can.

We will see that more expensive this year.

We see canned prices up 30%.

That is from the lag in pricing.

We are seeing higher prices this year for canned goods.

Raven: Another popular item is wine, spirits, beer.

Let's talk about what those prices look like.

>> This is the year to bring out your wine and serve your guests.

We are seeing wine only up about 1% compared to last year, compared to last year.

Think about wine when you are sharing with your guests.

Raven: What does this all mean?

Will people be getting more creative on a budget, or will there be less options to choose from around the table?

>> I think it will be people getting more creative.

I recommend shopping around.

We are seeing that competitiveness from the retailers, so get online and shop around before you do your big Thanksgiving purchasing.

That can help you save money.

Raven: Any key tips you want to mention to viewers who will be watching before they head out?

>> Keep in mind, this is the year for fresh.

Canned this is still going to be cheaper but this is the year we see the difference in the spread.

Maybe this is the year for your fresh produce.

Raven: When we think about food inflation, what else can people expect when they are going to the supermarket?

>> We are seeing food inflation start to slow this year.

When you think about where it was last year, in the summertime, we were seeing food inflation at home, the groceries you purchase from the grocery store, up 13%.

This year, the latest numbers are showing it up only 2.5%.

So you are starting to see overall relief from food inflation.

That does not mean your groceries are cheaper.

They are still going up in price.

But the rate they are going up has been slower.

We expect this trend to continue into the holiday season.

When you think about getting good deals, waiting until closer to the holiday is when you see retailers really start to be competitive and offer those deals.

Don't wait until the very last minute, but wait until closer to the holiday time.

Raven: Can we expect to see the deals soon?

>> You are starting to see it right now in the weekly data.

We are seeing the prices start to come down.

Raven: thank you for joining me on "Biz Beat."

>> Thank you for having me.

Raven: Before we leave you, here are a look at the top business headlines.

Core inflation reaches a two-year low in the latest inflation report, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The consumer price index was flat and October, compared to September.

Housing prices increased, as did the cost for medical services.

But the cost of many other goods answer spell, including gas and used cars.

Starbucks workers marked in red cup day with walkouts.

Big promotional events like red cup Day magnify issues with staffing, scheduling, and safety.

Recovered how many Starbucks stores in New Jersey and around the country have unionized.

Union workers say Starbucks is not negotiating in good faith.

Starbucks maintains it is the union holding up the bargaining process.

Last month, and national Labor Relations judge ruled that Starbucks violated labor laws have what it handled union issues in California.

Additional diesel buses -- this week, activists went to the bus depot in Camden to protest the $750 million purchase of 750 additional diesel buses, instead of investing in electric buses.

Right now, NJ transit operates eight electric buses out of Camden, but the agency says it is currently building electric bus capacity at four different depots across the state.

Advocates pressed Governor Murphy to step in, arguing the diesel investment goes against a 2020 law signed by Murphy, requiring 50% of bus purchases be electric by 2026.

New Jersey is on the verge of having a billion-dollar business.

According to new state figures, the legal cannabis market sold more than 730 $4 billion worth of products between July 20 22 and June 2023.

The states cannabis regulatory commission says the bulk of those sales came from recreational marijuana customers.

In turn, sales for the medical market are trending down, dropping by 44% since sales began in April 2022.

The pace of the industry's growth had been a worry for some inside the market, who argued the state was dragging its feet approving new dispensaries to open.

It took nearly a year for 20 dispensaries to open during the first year.

But since then, dozens more have been awarded -- dozen more licenses have been awarded.

That does it for us this week.

Remember to subscribe to our NJ Spotlight News YouTube channel to be alerted when we post new episodes and clips.

We are off next week for the holiday, so we hope you enjoy yours if you celebrate.

We will see you back here and a couple weeks.

Thanks for watching.

Announcer: Support for "NJ Biz Beat with Raven Santana" provided by NJMEP, a partner to New Jersey's manufacturing industry, focused on productivity, performance, and strategic development.

More on NJMEP.org.

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