Announcer 1: The views and opinions expressed in to the point are those of the host of the program and its guests.

They do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of WGTE public media.

Doni: Today, we welcome George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute, a former CIA director of Russia analysis, a seasoned diplomat and the author of the provocative book The Russia Trap How Our Shadow War with Russia Could Spiral Into Nuclear Catastrophe.

His decades of experience in intelligence and foreign policy, and brings a sobering perspective on the escalating tensions between the United States and Russia.

His latest work warns of a dangerous spiral, one driven by misperceptions, technological disruption and the erosion of diplomatic norms.

Join us for a compelling conversation about the risks of unintended conflict and the urgent need for strategic clarity in U.S., Russia relations.

Joining Mr. Beebe is Ukrainian citizen and University of Toledo body president Iryna Snahoshchenko.

I'm Doni Miller and welcome to the point.

Please connect with us on our social media pages.

You know that.

You may also email me at Doni underscore Miller at wgte.org.

And for this episode and any other that you might be interested in, please don't hesitate to go to wgte.org.

To the point it is my honor and my pleasure to have George Beebe with us this morning.

As you know from the introduction, he is a very, very busy man and a very important man.

And we appreciate your taking time.

This morning to, speak to us about what is becoming an issue of growing concern, and that's our relationship with Russia.

Your most recent book is a little frightening.

Very thorough and and a must read, I think, for people who are interested in this topic.

You describe the relationship in your book as a shadow war.

Can you tell us what that means in terms of the current geopolitical construct?

George: Well, I wrote this book in 2019 when I was concerned about dynamics in the US-Russian relationship that I thought were leading into, a spiral of escalation, a cycle of action and reaction that could bring us to the brink of direct military conflict with Russia.

And that, in fact, is what has happened, unfortunately, in that interim period.

But at the time, what we're seeing was a lot of, conflict in the cyber domain, a lot of conflict, through sponsorship of rival military forces, not direct conflict between the U.S. and Russian militaries, but proxy warfare that was growing in intensity.

And a lot of information warfare, propaganda, efforts to shape perceptions, undermine people's confidence.

Things that, could if if those trends weren't arrested, build it intensity and bring us to the point where we might actually be facing each other on the battlefield.

And and, as you know, the prospect of direct conflict between two countries that hold 90% of the world's nuclear weapons, that's a pretty scary prospect, Doni: extremely scary process, the prospect and not helped, I might add, by the recent activity that we see between, India and Russia and China.

Is that something we should be concerned about?

It's been characterized in the media as being not only provocative and problematic, but extremely concerning.

Your take on that?

George: Well, I think what we've seen in the last week, you know, this meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that includes Russia, that includes China, a number of other countries, is emblematic of some fundamental changes in the world that have taken place over the last 25 years.

At the start of this millennium to in 2001, we were in a unipolar world.

The United States was number one, top of the pyramid, and there was nobody else even close.

China was still a relatively backward and poor country.

And, and certainly the United States was in a position then to tell other countries that this is what you're going to do or else.

And we had the military and economic and political coercive power to make them comply.

That's not the case anymore.

We now have a situation where the United States has a peer competitor in China, a country that not only approximates our own military capability, but has an economy that is at least as big as the United States, is a technological peer in many areas and deeply integrated into the world economy, into America's own economy.

So this is a much a different challenge than we faced ever before in our history.

And on top of that, we have a number of other great powers and rising regional powers that have options.

When the United States says, here's what you're going to do, they can say, well, no, we have alternatives.

And I think that's what we saw this past week when, India, after the United States raised tariffs, in an attempt to compel the Indians to curtail their purchases of Russian oil.

And he said, well, you know, we have alternatives now and let us show you.

And that's what played out, I think, in China.

Doni: But but is Russia really a solid and viable alternative for India, or do or do you think there was just some political positioning going on there?

George: Well, an alternative to the United States.

No, but, a, a country that they can use to maneuver geopolitically so that the United States recognizes that we can't simply dictate to India the terms of our relationship.

Yes.

Doni: Yeah, yeah.

So let's let's talk for a moment about the relationship between Russia and the United States.

It's come under a significant scrutiny, over the at least during this term, that President Trump has, has been in office.

Do you think that we are proceeding as a country with the, with full knowledge that Russia has alternatives?

George: Well, I think that is part of the reason why we are seeking an improved relationship with Russia, not because we have any fondness for Putin or for the Russian political system, not in the hope that we can build some sort of deep partnership with Russia, but because we're facing a new multipolar world in which we do have to contend with China being a significant, competitor.

And as a result, we don't want a situation where we are inadvertently driving Russia and China to cooperate deeply in security matters against the United States.

That makes our own security that much more tenuous.

So we need a situation in which we can achieve some sort of balance among the great powers and rising powers in this new multipolar order.

So we want Europe to have a more significant role as a pole in this multipolar order.

That means Europe has to stand up on its own two feet, to a much greater degree than there has been.

That's right.

That means that we need Russia to be a pole, and that means Russia can't be a junior partner to China.

You know, Russia has to have what I would call a more normal relationship with China, able to have relations with the United States in Europe as well as with China.

And we need a situation where India is more of an independent player, where India can play a counterweight to China.

It is not driven to cooperate more deeply with China and other competitors than it would normally.

So, this is a new chessboard that we're facing, in the world today.

And the United States is going to have to maneuver a little differently than it did during that post-Cold War period of polarity Doni: to that point.

There is concern and you addressed it in, in your writing about the misperceptions that each has about the other.

What do you think the major misperceptions are, that are out there and how dangerous are they?

George: Well, I think in the United States, there has long been a strong consensus that the challenge that Russia poses is what I would call a World War Two type problem.

In other words, Russia is a lot like Nazi Germany, an autocratic bully state that is intent on expanding and will do so unless it is met with very strong military force.

Doni:That's the perception of most of the country.

George: That's right, that's rig But I think the misperception is that we're actually facing what I would call a World War One problem, a spiral of action in reaction where steps that one country or group of countries take to enhance its own security that they regard as defensive, actually appear to another country, to neighboring countries as provocative as something that threatens their security.

And you get into a cycle of action and reaction where both sides think that what they're doing is defensive.

And I think that is really the nature of the problem that we're facing with Russia today.

Both countries think that the other side only understands the language of force.

Both sides think that if they use force, the other side will wake up and back down and capitulate.

But in fact, what this is doing is it's leading to a spiral of escalation.

You don't solve a World War one problem through more force.

More force makes it worse.

Just like when you're dealing with a World War two problem, you don't solve it through diplomacy, and diplomacy becomes appeasement.

It makes the problem worse.

So diagnosing the kind of problem we're facing here is critical.

And I think the United States, the bulk of opinion here, actually is mis perceiving the kind of problem we're facing.

And when you don't diagnose the problem right, you get your prescription wrong.

Doni: We have just a minute left in this segment.

What you're saying is particularly concerning, we're on the path that we're on.

We have two leaders who are very much entrenched in their positions.

Do you how do you see us backing away from the analysis of the current problem?

George: Well, I think right now the United States and Russia are on a path toward finding a compromise solution.

I think each side realizes that it can't force the other to capitulate, not going to win on the battlefield.

I think the Russians recognize that even if they capture all the territory in Ukraine that they have claimed, they still have a big security problem with NATO in the West that they can only solve by sitting down at the negotiating table.

And I think we see the same thing from our side.

The challenge here is, can, Trump bring the rest of Washington, the rest of Europe, and American public opinion, along with him in finding a compromise solution?

Doni: I sure hope you're right.

George.

Stay with me.

We're going to go to a break.

We will be back in just a minute.

Please stay with us.

Doni: Connect with us on our social media pages.

But you know that.

You know also that you can email me at Doni underscore Miller at wgte dot org for this episode and any others that you might be interested in.

Please don't hesitate to go to wgte dot org To the point.

if you were with us during our first segment and I hope you were, you heard my talk with George Beebe, who is the author of The Russia Trap How Our Shadow War with Russia Could Spiral Into a Nuclear Catastrophe, and amazing topic.

We tried to get him to stay for another couple of days, but he won't.

Joining us, this, this segment, we have the University of Toledo student body president Iryna Snahoshchenko , it's pretty good.

You gotta admit.

That's pretty good.

Yeah.

Who is, Ukrainian resident.

And with us to discuss what has become an issue of great importance for students on the campus, both locally and you would you would also suggest that that involvement in politics is an international should be an international concern for students as well.

Iryna: Yeah.

A being involved with international politics is one of those things that is extremely important for students nowadays.

Now that our world is changing, as it always has, students are now at the center of, those just those decisions that are being made by great decision makers and leaders across the world.

And more than anything, I think it is important to be educated as a student.

Students are now exposed to so many different, sources of information that sometimes could be, misinterpreting information about global politics, or sometimes it could just be incomplete information.

So I believe it is very important to go outside of your comfort zone and maybe something that is taught in school and get involved, in the community and, get involved and study abroad.

One of my favorite things that I did in, my time being a student was actually go study abroad and learn about the different ways that people that were different than me thought.

And, that has helped me understand, the different truths, that exist in the world a little bit more understand my biases and the biases that, people around me might have as well.

And, and then, another thing that we need to consider is that students nowadays will be, leaders of the world tomorrow.

And so, the more we invest in students now and the more knowledge and exposure, we help them get, nowadays, the more I will help them in the future.

And the potential roles that they hold and, the in policy or politics.

So I do believe that is extremely important.

Doni: So what would you say to those folks, who have said and we hear this conversation, off and on throughout this particular time in our history because the issues are so complex.

And, what would you say to those folks who say, if you are not an American citizen, if you were not born here, you have no place in this greater political discussion as it affects the United States?

Iryna: I probably would say that, in our world today, it might be a little bit more complex than that.

It's definitely been like that in, history that, not only the United States participate in a conversation, but also, the different other, powers in the world.

And now that we see the rise of different powers, across the world, we see that there's a lot more space, at the table.

And I also believe that there's so many, so many, so much need for different perspectives, because the way to understand an issue, that is complex is to look at it from different perspectives and, listen to everybody who is affected by it.

Doni: Yeah.

George, would you agree?

George: Yeah, very much so.

I think Irina makes a very good point that the the information environment that we're operating in today is much different than it was when, when I first began my career, when you had, you know, three major newspapers and, you know, four national television networks and they, they, you know, more or less operated within a fairly narrow range of consensus.

Now you have many, many thousands of information sources, a lot of which are very polarized, that have very narrow points of view.

And, and it's difficult as an information consumer to navigate this and figure out, well, what's true.

Where does truth lie among, you know, these contending claims and counterclaims and accusations?

And the tendency, I think, is for people to go into an information bubble to surround themselves with information that makes them feel comfortable, and reduces, you know, all of this uncertainty because, you know, I believe this and I'm just going to listen to this.

It's easy to do, but it also oftentimes leads to policies and attitudes that fail to take into account things that they ought to be considering.

So I very much agree.

We need a diversity of voices.

We also need to be aware of our own confirmation bias tendencies.

And we do need to listen to people that offer perspectives that are uncomfortable to us.

Doni: Yes, yes, yes.

What what is it, though, that we can say to students that will make them understand the importance of their position in this conversation?

School can be totally consuming.

As as you well know, as a senior at the, at the university, but it is critical that those voices be included in the conversation.

What should we be saying to those students that would make them understand the nature of what we're talking about?

Iryna: In my experience, some students sometimes think that if they speak up, they may not be listened to.

Yeah.

And that could be a barrier Doni: to your point, George.

Actually, Iryna: yeah, it could be a barrier, for those voices to be out there, and to just be represented at the table, and I think, the thing that we should be telling them is to, be empowered to do that and be empowered to go out of your comfort zone of what you know, what you believe, and go and look for things that may challenge that and look for facts that are presented to you, and then have an opinion that is mostly based on facts, and then go and speak up about it.

Because really from what I've seen, as maybe to in some, people's opinions, my is still, very limited, time here.

Like, I haven't been alive for a long time.

But in my experience, student voices are heard a lot of the times when they are expressed.

And there's many, many student leaders who speak up at international conferences, who present the world with, findings that sometimes, the world overlooks.

And, there there certainly is place for that.

And I think students should be empowered to use their voice.

Doni: I love that you use the word empowered.

I love that all everything that we're talking about this morning talks about the power to change, the power to make change, the power to change course and I don't think that people understand that they have the power to make change and to change course.

George, you've mentioned the need to understand, to better analyze the problem and to be able to step back and to decide that you need to take a different course.

Would you say to those people who say, I can't do that, would you?

What would you say to them?

George: I would say, you have agency.

You're not a victim.

Doni: Absolutely.

George: And in fact, our country was based on that very notion.

We are not the ruled.

We are not the subjects of government.

America is about self-government.

It's about having agency.

And our system doesn't work unless citizens take hold of that agency and don't regard themselves as subjects of government.

People that are ruled by others but are participants and actively shaping how we govern ourselves.

That's the idea behind the United States.

It doesn't work unless students and other citizens have that attitude.

Doni: Absolutely.

And the fear that some people have about speaking out for a number of reasons, for feeling as though they might be targeted, for feeling as though they might not be heard, which is a significant fear, I think that many people have like, what's the point?

Nobody's going to listen to me.

You would tell them to step forward.

You would tell them not to not to give away that power.

Do I have that right?

Iryna: Yes.

It is extremely, important to understand how much, our voices can count in, this big canvass of opinions, in the global, and the global world of different perspectives.

And, decisions that are being made.

There is a place for that.

Doni: Absolutely.

We have just one minute left.

There is there's so many things I want to ask you, George, about your perspective, but we certainly don't have time to do that today in this last minute.

What do you think the expected what's the expected outcome of our relationship with Russia?

George: Well, I think, I hope we're going to be on a path toward improved relations.

One, a path that, enhances the security of of all the players involved in this one where nobody capitulates to the other side.

But we, address the most important interests that we have, the things that are vital to our security, that, includes Ukraine.

It includes Europe and includes Russia and the United States.

I think there is a path forward where we all can compromise on things, where we can afford to have flexibility, but we all defend the interests that are absolutely vital to our own interests.

Doni: I love it.

Thank you both so much for being here today.

Really important conversation.

We need to do this again.

Thank you.

And thank you for joining us and I will see you next time.

Until the point.

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They do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of WGTE public media.

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