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What does the Israel-Hamas ceasefire mean?
Clip: 1/15/2025 | 5m 27sVideo has Closed Captions
Interview: Michael Boyle, Rutgers expert on U.S. policy in the Middle East
In a major breakthrough on Wednesday, Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire deal that will pause their fighting in the Gaza Strip and lead to the phased release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. The deal -- which was brokered by the United States, Qatar and Egypt -- includes plans for a limited withdrawal of Israeli troops from the enclave and a surge in humanitarian aid there.
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NJ Spotlight News is a local public television program presented by THIRTEEN PBS
NJ Spotlight News
What does the Israel-Hamas ceasefire mean?
Clip: 1/15/2025 | 5m 27sVideo has Closed Captions
In a major breakthrough on Wednesday, Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire deal that will pause their fighting in the Gaza Strip and lead to the phased release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. The deal -- which was brokered by the United States, Qatar and Egypt -- includes plans for a limited withdrawal of Israeli troops from the enclave and a surge in humanitarian aid there.
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Learn Moreabout PBS online sponsorshipIsrael and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire deal that will pause there fighting in the Gaza Strip and lead to the phased release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
The deal, which was brokered by the United States, Qatar and Egypt, includes plans for a limited withdrawal of Israeli troops from the enclave and a surge in humanitarian aid there, opening a pathway to end a 15 month war that's caused immense bloodshed and death and threatened to spark a massive regional conflict.
According to reports, the first phase of the cease fire could start this weekend.
That's when Hamas is expected to release 33 hostages.
That pause in violence would last for six weeks during the second phase.
The cease fire would continue while the remaining hostages and prisoners are set free.
A third phase would include establishing a new government and security structure for Gaza, which has largely been destroyed by the fighting.
Israeli officials believe 98 hostages remain in Gaza and about 60 are still alive.
That's including ten, a fly native, he Don Alexander.
Meanwhile, Hamas has called on citizens to stay in place and not move until the official start of the cease fire.
For more on this major breakthrough and whether we could finally see an end to this war, we turn to Michael Boyle, a Rutgers expert on U.S. policy in the Middle East.
Michael, thanks so much for your time.
What do we know right now about the key terms of the agreement and what both sides need to do immediately in order to adhere to it?
So the exact details of the agreement are a little bit unclear.
We know that in broad terms, it looks like the agreement that the administration had on the table in May.
So assuming that it follows that sort of broad framework, it's going to be a two phase agreement.
The first phase will be a release of the hostages any time the release of Palestinian prisoners as well.
It looks like what's going to happen is they'll prioritize, particularly female hostages and people that are then that are not of military age.
So it looks like that's the first set of hostages.
We'll see released, back to Israel.
At the same time, there's it looks like there's a kind of rough arithmetic about how many Palestinian prisoners are laid off for every Israeli hostage.
And that's a six weeks confidence building measure.
The important part from a Palestinian point of view.
Aside from the fact that obviously that brings an end to the war, is it also will bring the introduction of humanitarian relief in fairly substantial number, including, you fuel oil for the winter, food, medical supplies, enough to be able to get the hospitals up and running.
So that's the first six week period.
Once that happens, it'll settle into a longer phase two, which will involve the release of hostages of military aid.
So this is a men that could have conceivably fought on both sides, as well as what has been described as a cessation of hostilities.
Now, whether that's a full end of the war or a substantial reduction in violence or a cessation of hostilities with the kind of asterisks next to it is a little bit unclear.
It feels like we have been here so many times before.
There have been so many failed efforts.
Why do you think Hamas has agreed to this now?
That's a very good question in a sense.
In many respects, the agreement is very similar to what was on the table in March.
So you raised the question about why was a month suddenly say yes, in part, it might be having to do a little bit with the change in U.S. administration.
It's Hamas is beginning to look at the onset of a Trump administration.
It's not clear that the Trump administration abides by a deal that the Biden administration signed.
So if you, Hamas, and you're looking at a deal that you can more or less live with, there is an argument to sign it before the Trump administration comes into effect.
We also know the Trump administration has been relatively aggressive in saying this should be done in the hospital, should be released by January 20th, or there will be hell to pay.
Whatever that exactly means is not quite clear.
But you could be anticipating a much more tough approach from the Trump administration if you're Hamas, in which case you take the deal on the table that the Biden administration's offer.
Yeah, you have to imagine that that's a factor.
What are the biggest obstacles, though, now, to ensuring that this ceasefire holds in the coming weeks and months?
So as you said, the proof is in implementation.
The proof is less about sort of the formal text, which we kind of know in broad terms is what it is.
The first question is around what's called the Philadelphia corridor, which is essentially on the border between southern Gaza and Egypt.
And Israel has been demanding a degree of security control in that area.
And that's been a sticking point in the negotiations.
Right.
So to what extent do they have to relinquish control that area?
What extent can they continue to do security operations in that area?
So that's one very, very big sticking point.
The second thing is whether the buffer zones that Israel has kind of laid out on the sort of eastern part of Gaza remains more or less secure and begins to work as an agreement, as a way of kind of bringing down the violence.
The other sticking points that I would look at is whether there's issues with domestic ratification, both on the Israeli side, where we know members of the Israeli cabinet expressed deep opposition to any deal with Hamas, but also, Hamas aside, because it's worth pointing out that after the assassination of Yaakov Silver as well as effective leader, Hamas has been less organizationally together, in which case there is a real question that somebody signs the agreement in other parts of mass, don't agree and then spoil the agreement.
So there's a lot of sticking points here.
And I think the real proof of what this is going to hold is implementation.
But it's a good first step.
Professor, good to have your insight a momentous day.
Thank you so much.
Thank you.
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