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♪ David: Budget season is here.

Time temperature money where your mouth is.

Hey, everybody.

It is "Reporters Roundtable," I'm de la Cruz.

-- I'm David Cruz.

Our actual panel today includes veterans of the budget process, including John, budgeting finance writer, Dustin, editor at Politico NJ, and Charles, political columnist for The Record.

We will get their insights interfaith, but let's begin with a preview of the budgetary address.

Senator, always a pleasure.

Welcome.

Senator: Thank you for having me.

David: Are you a budget contrarian?

Senator: No, I may budget truth teller, if you're going to tell the truth, you are a contrarian to this governor.

The budget is a mess, they be the worst shape it has ever been in, which is hard to fathom.

We have what amounts to close to $4.5 billion structural deficit that will be dug into the lap of the next governor, whoever he or she may be.

I'm hoping it is a he, a Republican, Jack.

I don't want to put any plugs in here.

Whoever it is, it is going to be a brutal job, brutal on the taxpayers of New Jersey, and it did not have to be this way.

Had we been more responsible the last seven years, we could be in much better shape.

David: All right, let me pump the brakes before you take all the air out of the thing and that I have to go to the panel.

Senator O'Scanlon: OK. David: You have quite the evocative description of the budget, saying that it contains a steaming pile of deficit.

Is it starting to snow yet?

-- is it starting to smell yet?

Senator O'Scanlon: Those are my words.

It has been stinking for years, it's impossible to walk by the statehouse are not smell the deficit.

David: Where is the deficit now, 4 billion?

Senator O'Scanlon: Over 4 billion, and in 20 seconds I can explain.

We sent down $2 billion of our surplus.

And he is now tearing down at an alarming rate, 2 billion is 25% of it.

Additionally, he sold the corporate transit, and one year, he took credit, collected almost $1 billion and dumped it not to transit but right into the general fund.

That is 3 billion right there but the 2 billion and deficit and surplus, and another 600 million, indent avoidance and defeasance money, 3.6.

It is easy to get you another $2 billion in shots that amount to $4.5 billion of structural deficit.

It is a disaster, it is a house of cards builds on a fault line.

There is some reporting that says the structural deficit is only 2 billion.

Suggesting that the surplus's structural deficit, no, it is not, as I just outlined.

David: A few of the popular programs and ideas from the governor could be in danger.

You had a question in that regard.

Charles: Putting a lot of idea on this tax cut for senior homeowners, this money had been socked away in previous budgets, do you think that should be on the chopping block?

Senator O'Scanlon: No, my first priority would be to keep something like state in J but the problem is it will not be on Democrats.

This will have worked for several cycles to get Democrats elected in the assembly, and as soon as the next election is over and the next budget happens, things melt down, and that will be one of the first items on the chopping block.

And it leaves implementing Stay N.J.

I did not include that in the structural deficit.

You have to add another one to $2 billion if they're going to believe surplus.

So it is 5.5 billion if you include Stay N.J. David: It is like you have your cake and eat it, too, Senator because the program stinks, it is going to add to the deficit, but I like it.

Senator O'Scanlon: I've said they are being disingenuous and they have no way to pay for it, and implementing a policy that you would show no way to pay for it is irresponsible, but it is a high-priority for me.

If I were in charge, I have something like it, and I have a way to pay for it.

So it's not like having my cake and eating it, too, it is providing relief, but calling out the Democrats on their absolute abdication of coming up with a way to pay for it.

David: Let me get you on the record about this corporate business tax surcharge that is supposed to fund NJ transit.

It is going to die this year, or not going to die, but that money is going somewhere else.

Senator O'Scanlon: I spoke to transit officials.

They are expecting the close to $1 billion to be given to them.

If that does not happen in this budget, transit is already a disaster, and a program that the governor came in saying over his dead body he would not fix.

Last I looked, he was alive and kicking, and transit is our life support.

It is a disaster for commuters in my district.

If you have scones with any of that money, -- AP up scones with any of that money, -- if he of scones with any of that money, he's not keeping his promise.

David: Ebony and wit these following -- brevity and which these following questions.

Trump has a budget battle coming, tax cuts to the wealthier, and Medicaid, etc., 15 seconds to assess the federal budget.

Senator O'Scanlon: The federal budget is almost in bad shape as the state budget.

And a pox on all their houses, they spent like drunken sailors and they get away with it.

They can do things the state cannot do.

They can run a deficit.

We can't.

Eventually, that will come home to roost.

I'm all for responsible cuts of the federal level, but you are right, they have to be responsible.

If they are going to take a cleaver to Medicaid, that's a serious problem that will impact the health of people and impacts the budget dramatically.

I will be fair at the federal level and criticize the Trump administration and if they deserve it.

I have no problem doing that.

I praised him when he was there, as well, just as I had in my Governor Murphy served -- just as I had done when Governor Murphy served.

David: You did.

This governor he has not been engaging them in debates, etc.

Senator O'Scanlon: I think he has shown up to debates and conventions, as well.

I love everybody in the race on the Republican side, and I'm friendly with almost all people on the Democrats I, too.

But Jack will be a fantastic governor.

Several most of the other Republican candidates to get the nomination, I think he has a good shot, and I'm fairly with all these guys.

And Jack is the right guy right now for the job, and I think the people of New Jersey will be able to vote for him.

David: Last question, who was the Democrat you fear the most as a gubernatorial candidate?

Senator O'Scanlon: I don't fear any of them.

I think we are going to wrap around -- whoever is the money, -- whoever is the nominee, we will wrap the support of this administration around the next.

None of them have called out the administration and they have all been in position of responsibility to do that.

They have not spoken up, so we will have a really good time and defeat whichever one of them, and they are all friends of mine , but we will defeat whoever it is.

David: Artfully dodged.

We will hear from the governor on Tuesday, Republican deck limo Scanlon will be there Declan O'Scanlon will be there, too.

Good to see all of you.

Let's start with the Senators' steaming pile, isn't it that bad?

-- is it that bad?

John: I think it depends on a few things clglass half empty or full.

This fiscal year is set to close with a more than $6 billion surplus, which is almost 10% of planned spending, which is a pretty high rate for New Jersey historically.

And the structural deficits on paper, it is the gap between projected annual expenditures projected annual revenues that the senator referred to is a little bit over 2 billion right now, but that is going to change, as well, when we get updated projections early next week.

So a lot of what we are talking about today is going to change.

Furthermore, it is going to change again by the time we get to may and we have counted up the April income.Tax payments income taxes the biggest source of revenue for the state budget, so it is a little early to be making declarations about whether this budget or the next one is sort of going to make it to the finish line and we achieve it or not.

We usually have to weed until we count the April tax payments.

As we saw the end of the year, Wall Street was coming along pretty well as the new year started, so, typically when that scenario plays out, we get a bit of a bump come April, but we will have to wait and see.

David: I see what you did there with the declarations.

Charles, it's not going to be one of those we got it all covered budget.

Almost of the federal money -- almost all of the federal money from COVID days is gone.

Charles: I think he alluded to the possibility that even more is going to be vanishing, especially the Medicaid money.

The state has to put up 50%, a brand matching program, so to keep those programs for our most indigent residents, people in hospitals, as well, the state will be under a lot of pressure to fill that gap or feel that loss of money that they are going to see taken from the federal government.

Which will be, by the way, used to subsidize in his something the senator did not mention, that money of the Trump tax cut, so they will take money away from the poor to subsidize the tax cut that goes to the rich, and the state residents here in New Jersey, we are going to have to find a way to cover that whole.

David: Progressives are a little antsy.

The ones I've talked to her worrying about set aside money like that transit tax that is getting sucked into the general funds.

Are they right to be a little antsy?

Dustin: I think anything that is not constitutionally protected is at risk to New Jersey, and we see that historically.

Of course, they have cause for concern.

They find themselves in these situations all too frequently, where they are met and that Trump tax cuts go through, and DOGE does its work.

We already got notices about untold amounts of money for grants and other programs that will be lost.

We very easily could be in that same situation, scrounging around for money, despite a $6 billion surplus.

David: We hear all the time about the budget process.

We never see the final document ever really before eight vote.

No chance that that is going to be any different this year?

John: nobody has made it a priority headed into the budget season, but the type of energy we have in the run-up to the budget is what we need when we get to the final weeks.

So the attention the budget speech gets tends to trail off, by the time the final spending bill gets voted out of committee, it is late at night with a few reporters and policy advocates, and it is signed into law pretty quickly after it goes through both houses, and there are a lot of changes that get made to important programs.

A lot stays the same.

We will see this year.

Really, I think the process sometimes is a little backwards, including the way recovery it, there should be more attention given in those final weeks because that is when the big decisions get made, typically by the governor and the legislative leaders in the majority in both houses, that is really when the attention, a light should be shining brightest.

They add typically a lot of last-minute spending and we don't learn the sponsors of that spending until after the budget is signed into law, so there is a lot of work that could be done on the process, you just don't hear any of the leaders talking about doing any of that kind of work because they sort of benefit from doing everything under the cloak of darkness.

Transparency is not a priority with this legislature and governor.

At times you could argue they have open hostility towards transparency.

Charles: Don't expect a change in the budget process anytime soon.

David: Dustin, John Mexico point about the rubber -- John makes a good point about the rubber meeting the road towards the end of the process, but by that time, we are all beaten down by sitting through endless assembly and incentive budget committee hearings, and that is how you end up, mistake Lolos to sleep -- lull us to sleep, is that how we end up with Christmas tree items?

Dustin: That is a part of it, and I agree with John 100% about this being backwards, and all the budget committee hearings, I mean -- they are a little bit of a show.

Lawmakers are going to do what the going to do.

And Phil Murphy in the governor is going to do what they would like to do.

Governor, I think this is a good process.

Every year, it is the same that you hear about, how about the processes, but nothing ever changes.

It benefits the people who are in that room, and they get to build a new dog park in their district or make upgrades to local road or whatever.

Nothing is going to change.

David: Let's move on.

Charles, you have an interesting piece on Matt Plotkin, future political candidate.

He waved it off when we asked him about it a few weeks ago, but he left the door slightly ajar in your column, tell us about that.

Charles: I potentially put a doorjamb in that question, and frankly I was not surprised.

If you look at the totality of everything he's doing, it would not be a shock if you stop planning some future or laying the groundwork for some political future.

I mean, it's not unheard of.

He had a U.S. attorney from New Jersey run twice for president.

It is high visibility job, and he is also seizing the moment.

He understands, he seems to understand there is a lot of clamor for change, for transparency, for accountability maybe, so he is grabbing onto those themes.

I cannot think of another Attorney General that has set up a commission to improve those issues, accountability and government.

He said that a commission.

He is going after publicly criticizing the presidents pardons, even Joe's pardon of his son Hunter, who does that?

I cannot remember an Attorney General poking his nose into the public spotlight as much as him.

David: He certainly has come a long way from the earliest days of the Murphy administration when he was in the inner circle of that inner circle.

He is the only Attorney General who on occasion will send out an emailed last that says I'm fighting for you, which he did a couple of weeks ago.

Charles: I attended a postelection form in Princeton, where he was against, and there were a couple of other officials, and they were murmuring in the crowd.

I mean, maybe I was starting to murmur, but clearly, it was hard not to see.

David: Most of the gubernatorial candidates, that is, are bailing on these county conventions.

That is except those who expect to win them.

Dustin, is this another sign of how the end of the line is impacting politics and Jersey?

Dustin: I think it is pretty clear, and it is amazing how last year at this time anybody who cares about politics in New Jersey, all their attention is drawn to the conventions between the First Lady for the senate seat and now it is like nobody cares.

So it just goes to show you how quickly things can change after being such an institution for a century or more, that it is over, it is that.

-- it is over, it is dead.

To be fair, these county organizations still have a lot of influence and resources, so the people will get that support.

David: That is money, boots on the ground, etc.

Let me stick with you, the Catholic Church is going to hire a law firm to conduct the comprehensive third-party review of this 2019 investigation into sex abuse charges at the University that implicate the new president.

You have been on that story.

Do you have an update?

Dustin: I wish I knew what was going on with that.

They did a comprehensive review in 2019 and we still don't have the answers to that.

We only got a summary from the school.

What the archdiocese of Newark says about this is that the review is going to be looking into how that review is conducted.

So it is an investigation of an investigation for all intents and purposes.

I suppose it is going to focus on its relation to the new president, Joseph Riley, and how the process went in terms of who was notified and when, and if it was appropriate.

As we speak today, it has been two months since we reported all of this, and it is hard to understand why we are going to the notions of hiring another law firm for an investigation instead of bringing more transparency and telling people what is going on.

David: The news of this was that the president knew of the allegations but did not bring them forward.

Dustin: Correct, he's not accused of misconduct himself, but he was aware of the allegations and did not properly report them which is problematic.

David: The other story this week, congestion pricing put on pause.

It looks like it is over.

Is it over?

John: I don't think with this on it is ever over.

It will be something that is probably contested for quite a while.

I think the claims that were made by New York about sort of interference at the federal level, I mean, you know, federal administrations change, and they can change again.

It really is a test of what one state can do versus how much influence the federal government has.

And, of course, in New Jersey, we are stuck in a situation where transit funding remains a long-term issue.

You talked about with the senator.

We have talked about it.

You don't have the type of infrastructure buildup in New Jersey that allows us to easily absorb whatever happens in New York because a lot of people to have to drive in because they don't have mass transit access to New York City.

David: You also had an interesting piece on the details in some of these terms of service agreements that you click on so easily.

John: there is a bill moving through the legislature with bipartisan support that would try to tighten up a state law.

A lot of us use our phone for services, we order a pizza, we Hayleigh ride, and sometimes little box comes up and you don't look at it too closely because you're anxious to get the pizza, but take a look at it and see exactly what you are signing off on, whether it is datasharing or maybe even getting up your right to sue.

That is something that gets overlooked often, especially as these big companies take on more and more services that are offered to us, everything from cloud services for showing up with your coffee for tomorrow morning.

David: Months to go, but we have one minute to kill.

Who was the front runner in each of the governors races?

Pick one or no work on each side.

-- or no one on each side.

Dustin: It looks like Mikey Cheryl paper on the Democratic side.

I would say it is a tossup with Spady, he has strong backing, Trump connected backing.

David: Charles?

Charles: I would say Mikey Cheryl is floating above the fray, and then on the Republican side, I agree with Dustin but I would tilt more towards Chief Covelli.

John: it is wide open right now.

There have been things set on both sides, but at this stage and don't think people are really paying attention.

At this point it is wide open.

David: Too early.

A notes, join us Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. as we bring you live coverage of the Governor's budget address.

We will be anchoring from inside the chambers, before, during and after the speech, John will be there, and I will be stocking the hallways.

Tuesday, live at 3:00 p.m. on NJPBS and Oliver streaming platforms.

-- and all of our streaming platforms.

Good to see you altogether again.

Thank you to Senator O'Scanlon.

Follow this show on roundtable NJ on, and subscribe to the YouTube channel.

I'm David Cruz.

For all of us here at Gateway Center, thank you for watching.

We will see you next week.

>> Major funding for "Reporters Roundtable" with David Cruz is provided by RWJBarnabas Health, let's be healthy together.

Rowan University, educating New Jersey leaders, partnering with New Jersey businesses, transforming New jersey's future.

♪