- [Kelly] Healthcare groups ask state Medicaid officials to delay some pending cuts, and we have new polling data on voter sentiment, and the US Senate race.

This is "State Lines".

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[upbeat music] ♪ - Welcome to "State Lines", I'm Kelly McCullen.

Pull up a chair for the next half hour.

Joining us today for political analysis, Joe Stewart, former North Carolina State Senator, Mike Woodard, New Frame Incorporated's Skye David, and John Locke Foundation CEO and publisher of "The Carolina Journal", Donald Bryson debuts.

Donald, good to have you on the show, welcome.

Your colleagues have been on, we've got the boss.

- I'm happy to be here, I'm glad to know that I'm not banned, Kelly, - You're never banned.

- and we still have a good relationship.

So I'm glad, I feel better.

- You're in seat four, the hottest of the hot seats of "State Lines."

I mean, you know, so it's a tough spot to be at.

A lot of topics, Joe, this one might be interesting to you and Mike especially these days.

North Carolina will reduce its Medicaid reimbursement payments to hospitals, nursing homes, and doctors as soon as October 1st.

A $319 million deficit remains in Medicaid, and that's following a $600 million boost in the recent North Carolina mini budget.

"The News and Observer" reports this $319 million shortfall.

It is a state issue independent from the One Big Beautiful Bill.

State healthcare advocacy groups want the State Department of Health and Human Services to delay those payment reductions to give state lawmakers time next week to adjust state funding.

On this one, you can't blame Trump, look to Raleigh it appears.

- Well, we've had a lot of dynamic changes in the Medicaid program.

If you go back in the recent history, we made the transition to a managed care program where people were actually getting proactive services from a variety of providers across the state.

Then we made the transition of expanding the eligibility of Medicaid as is allowed under the Affordable Care Act.

And that was a dynamic change as well bringing over 600,000 people onto the Medicaid roles.

Where we are now is really the basis of a difference of opinion between the state's Department of Health and Human Services that said, "We think we need this much money to provide for the care everyone on the system, in the system is eligible for."

The state legislature through their analysis said, "We think that number is smaller."

And so they appropriated the smaller number.

A number of things have happened now in the Department of Health and Human Services, the state agency that administers Medicaid in the state has said we have about a $319 million shortfall in terms of providing the services and the cash that we have available from the appropriation.

So when the legislature returns next week, they're gonna have to deal with this one way or the other.

- Mike, it does appear that one side, each side has experts, analysts, accountants.

That's right, it's not just politicians sitting down doing what they think is right.

Are there numbers on each side that validate each position?

- What's the old line, there's statistics and then, or lies, damn lies and statistics, I think was the quote.

There are different ways to look at it in exactly how the funds will be dispersed.

Governor Stein, his administration, including the department, had their opinion.

Senate budget writers had theirs and the House had theirs.

And I think that's the three groups that have got to come together or the three legs of the stool won't stand.

So we've gotta resolve the difference in that number and what the timing's gonna be.

This is all caught up, and Skye spends a lot of time looking at the budget down on Jones Street, or in our case now, the lack of budget, and we're caught between the constant fight between the two chambers and the budget.

The concern I think North Carolinians should have though, is that cutting these provider rates is really gonna bring healthcare for 6, 700,000 no, overall, I guess 1.4 million North Carolinians.

It really brings that into jeopardy including those 600 new Medicaid recipients.

- Skye, you follow legislators very closely and walk those halls.

Is there an opinion of those three, House, Senate, Governor, that doesn't want a deal, or do they all want a deal just with slightly different terms that are making a deal elusive?

- I think they all want a deal.

I think everybody wants to make sure this is covered.

But there are other things that they want, and some of those other things are getting caught up into this negotiation.

- [Kelly] Like what?

[panelists laugh] - Like the children's hospital.

- There you go.

- Another healthcare issue.

- I did read that.

- Yeah, that some of that money has been appropriated, but some more needs to be appropriated, and actually the budget has to say, "Yes, this can keep moving forward," and that has not happened yet.

- So Donald, let's say they cut a deal.

They get 300 million for the children's hospital in Apex, North Carolina, which isn't built yet, So we're in pre-construction on that as a state.

Medicaid needs 300, what, $319 million?

So $319 million for Medicaid costs $619 million in state revenue.

Is the math right?

- Well, if math is right- - [Kelly] It could be, it could be.

That's not clear, actually.

It appears that DHHS has come up with a number, and then the state's fiscal research division that works directly for the General Assembly has come up with another number.

The House Chamber at least has asked for, "Can someone reconcile these numbers between us?"

And I don't know, based on the reporting I've seen and people I've talked to, nobody has explained the difference just yet.

I thought that was a reasonable question to be asked by Representative Grant Campbell, "Somebody explain the math to us," but you know, there's more trouble on the horizon for Medicaid as the One Big Beautiful Bill, while this shortfall is not related to that, it does change how we will deal with Medicaid Expansion and the Expansion population going forward.

And we'll have to make some changes by January 1st if Republicans in the General Assembly want to keep Expansion, or they could let the law stay as it is, and Expansion ends.

- A lot to happen with Medicaid and Medicare.

Next topic is about the Republicans calling a Legislative Session next week in Raleigh, where leaders have been promising criminal justice reforms.

Setting aside the whole Medicaid debate, Legislative leaders have said last week, task forces, those created by governors to give advice, should no longer wield the influences in the past.

But Governor Stein didn't mentioned much about that, but he does say he agrees with Republicans on reforming magistrate duties, those that set bail, and increasing oversight of magistrates.

He's also called for new rules on involuntary commitments.

State House Speaker Destin Hall's team reported out that Speaker Hall, Mike, he's ready to work across the aisle.

It sounds like they're 2/3 of the way there.

Maybe remove that little barb about gubernatorial task forces 'cause they're there too.

And I read where they want the Supreme Court, they're gonna launch a task force.

So what's the deal with these task forces?

[Mike laughs] - That's a great question, and it seems as if the task force that was in everybody's cross hairs was the Racial Equity Criminal Task Force that then-Governor Cooper appointed, co-chaired by then Attorney General Stein and Justice Anita Earls, who actually came out with some great recommendations.

Some of those were around victims' rights.

Some of them were great administrative policy for the courts.

So that task force, I think did its job.

And how closely is it related to what really sparked this conversation.

Obviously, it was the tragic stabbing of the young woman on the Charlotte Transit line.

And that seems to have prompted a lot of action around this.

But what we've heard in recent days is there's been some good conversation between the Governor and legislative leaders.

So my fingers are crossed that we're gonna get all the parties together, as we're meeting today, and hopefully, next week, we'll see a good piece of legislation that's not knee jerk, but that is thoughtful and looks at a number of the issues raised by this case.

- Skye, I don't wanna put you on the spot, but an omnibus bill to reform criminal justice magistrate's task force's death penalty in a week.

- Yeah.

- That's not knee jerk.

[Joe chuckling] - No, and there are a lot of things that can happen, and only some, I think that can happen next week.

So, one part of that is the magistrate training.

Right now, you don't have to be an attorney to be a magistrate.

And there is a training provided by the School of Government.

You don't have to go.

So to be a magistrate, we could really raise the standard on that and help them out.

And in this particular case, the magistrate just looked at the sentencing guidelines and not past history.

You could just alter the law and say, let's make sure you're looking at past history of violent crime.

- Donald, this whole issue, I mean, next week we'll talk about four or five different provisions of any bill that potentially passes or at least comes up for debate.

What do you take on criminal justice reform and that it takes a national, or a story that goes national, a murder, to provoke this kind of in-depth discussion about such a deep issue?

- Yeah.

One, I think it's unfortunate.

There's no surprise to anybody that crime is a problem, particularly in the urban areas of North Carolina right now.

I think that this one is particularly egregious.

We have video, right?

We've seen, anybody who's seen the video or been unfortunate enough to see the video, saw this young woman being murdered.

And there's no real explanation to it.

Everybody wants to know why.

People don't understand.

I think nobody on either side of the aisle can understand why someone who was arrested 14 times was out again and was able to just do this.

And so politicians are always under the pressure of now and wanting to do something now.

I recall, he was state senator then, and then became Congressman Wiley Nickel, there was a cobra snake got loose in Raleigh a few years ago.

[Joe chuckling] And he had a public statement saying, "I don't know much about this issue of controlling animals, I know very little about it, but I can promise you I'll have legislation within the week."

Well, if you don't know much about it, how do you know there needs to be legislation?

And it kind of feels the same situation.

There's a snake loose, somebody needs to fix it, and so we're gonna come together and fix it, but I don't know that we know what we're gonna do yet.

But it's something that we should always be talking about how to reform this and keep people safe.

- Joe, things are inflamed right now, nationally, locally, and now a big bill's going to come out.

In your experience working in state government and being down there, you know, at least five years, how long does it take to diffuse the emotion, to sit down, to dive in, and make good policy to prevent problems from happening like happened in Charlotte, versus just, you know, we're angry, we're gonna do something?

- 24 hours.

[chuckling] [Joe chuckling] - 24.

- Well, I think you can react quickly, but if you're gonna solve a problem that's a really systemic cultural and societal problem, it's gonna take a little longer.

You know, the criminal justice system generally, and the men and women in law enforcement specifically, often have to confront things that are challenges outside of really the realm of criminality.

In the issues of mental health, the ability to be able to determine what's the best course of action, the person may have committed a crime, and so now law enforcement's involved, but the problem is a mental health issue.

Finding the resources available to make sure that the person's getting adequate and appropriate treatment for the underlying cause of the criminal action is probably what needs to be resolved.

That's not something we're gonna be able to fix in a week.

- But the debate would not be over getting people mental health services.

I think most people, even conservatives, liberals, everybody supports that.

It's locking people up against their will.

- Well, and to Skye's point, I think fundamentally, the thing we can do quickly is to better educate and train magistrates to make these determinations.

If what the person has done is a violent act, then even if mental health is the underlying condition that's causing that behavior, it's probably more important that a magistrate know they need to be off the streets so that some injury is not perpetrated upon another person.

- And can I add the point you made, Kelly, is it's, when you say locked them up, it's to put them in the facility where they're away from people and not a harm to themselves and others, but getting the care that they need.

And clearly, the mental health system failed this assailant in some ways.

That's, we hear he was schizophrenic and off his meds and not getting care.

So it's very nuanced and not something I think is this guy said that we're gonna get done in 24 hours or a week or two.

- We're gonna talk about the Carolina Journal poll here in a minute.

But we asked people what they thought that the major causes of violent crime are in North Carolina.

This is a statewide poll in North Carolina.

Remember, we gave them nine options, so the numbers are gonna be lower, but the top option, 25.8% of people said it's judges giving light sentences and releasing the criminals.

But then the next two options, both got about 15%, are poverty and then mental illness.

- It's really hard to commit someone involuntarily in North Carolina.

And I think in this particular case, his mom had called in and it's hard to look at this case from a distance and hear the things he was saying to police officers and think this person was even a harm to himself.

But in order to commit him, it takes a lot, it takes an act.

And so unfortunately, that act was a death.

- But it does appear everybody's at the table, at least to start this debate.

The governor, the House, the Senate, all on board, at least two thirds of the way there, Jo.

Talk about that Carolina Journal poll, Donald, your new poll came out this week, gauging North Carolinians sentiment of basically how well is the country working, at least as of this week.

Harper Polling asked 600 likely North Carolina voters about our country's direction, and nearly 54% of that poll said we're on the wrong track.

It was 44% thought we were on the wrong track last November, 95% of us were concerned about political violence.

93% believe political violence is never acceptable.

Am I seeing this right, Donald?

Nearly 4% of those polled believe that a political assassination can be acceptable.

Is that, so if I go, if I go in a diner with 100 people, four of them, on average, are gonna think political assassination is the right way to go?

- That, yes.

And that's concerning.

I'm glad that 95% of people seem to be normal and sane North Carolinians, it does, 3.8% said that political violence is acceptable always or sometimes.

Interesting if you dig into the cross tabs on that, and of course, I'm sure this might change if Charlie Kirk's political affiliation was different, right?

But 8% of Democrats say that political violence is sometimes or always acceptable compared to 1% of Republicans.

Now I'm sure that has a lot to do with the varieties, but it's just, it speaks to the polarization of what's going on and the polarization of America.

You spoke on the right direction, wrong track about the nation.

The fact that it's so close to 50%, I think is indicative of how polarizing American politics are.

But if you look back, you know, in November, you mentioned we were down to 44%.

People thought it was wrong track, but just in September of 2024, 2 months before that, it was 63%.

So we all build up to an election.

We think that if we elect the right people, it's gonna fix the country.

And then we breathe a sigh of relief and then just what?

Eight, nine months later, we're pit back up again.

- You're paying for these polls with the organization.

- [Donald] I am, importantly.

- Is there, they're not cheap.

You do recognize people are inflamed right now when they say something like that?

Or is it, do you, is there a way a pollster can go, "Hey, things are just hot right now, let's get to normal times, ask those same questions."

Would you expect a different polling result than four to 5% of people accepting political assassination?

Do you think that would be stable?

- You know, that's a really good question.

And I don't know for sure.

You know, I think if you dig into the cross tabs and clearly, you know, GOP voters and Trump 2024 voters are more concerned about political violence on the concern about it than, you know, democratic or independent voters.

That being said, I kind of think you're always gonna have a fringe who are like you know, at some point, we have a right to revolution.

We have a right to revolt.

And honestly, if you go around calling people fascist enough, they're gonna be like, "Wow, Hitler was a fascist.

"Maybe we don't need fascists around."

- Joe, here we are in political discourse.

It's tough out there.

And even if you're safe in your home watching this program, everybody feels a little uneasy I think, most people do.

- I think the anger in our politics is palpable and probably in large part exaggerated a little because of social media.

It's more present and constant.

People ask me about the relative turmoil in this time in American history and I said, "God, we had this kind of turmoil all the time "in the 19th century."

It's just, we don't remember that long ago.

And it wasn't present.

Andrew Jackson, very divisive figure as a president, but he wasn't on social media.

So I just think the dynamic makes it seem like we're more polarized.

And probably if people would sit down at a table and have a conversation, that they would find that they actually are.

But the difficulty is this, it is just too easy for someone to go on social media and say something mean and inflammatory and not feel as though there's gonna be a repercussion to that because of the relative anonymity that social media provides us.

I don't think we as a species yet have evolved to the extent that we understand the necessary for restraint in an environment where we have unlimited access to the audience.

- Mike, as a former state senator, I've covered up hundreds of you folks out of Raleigh.

The voters get so much more emotional in my experience about things that you and your Republican counterparts would debate, much more than any bipartisan discussion in that building.

How are politicians keeping it so cool behind the scenes and in the boardroom, but their voters are getting so angry at each other to the point they wanna fight, they wanna curse each other out and disown their own family?

- Joe touched on it.

I mean, I think social media feeds a lot of it.

The fact that instantaneously almost we see violent acts committed.

We've seen a couple here in recent weeks, one in our state, and of course the Kirk assassination, response is immediate.

You don't wait for the 6:30 news to see what Walter Cronkite or Huntley Brinkley have to say about it.

It is live, it's on TikTok, it's on YouTube.

And even our young people are getting accustomed to being able to see it in real time and not think through exactly what a healthy reaction should be.

- These polls do affect elected leaders in Raleigh.

They're not in Congress or anywhere, but how do you perceive legislators are feeling about the direction of the state right now and the way things are getting done?

- I think leaders feel good about what they're doing, but I think everyone is a little uneasy right now to that point of that poll.

I think it wasn't a political assassination, but even if you think of the United Healthcare murder, people were celebrating that.

And the guy kind of became famous, the shooter and highly regarded.

If we have that kind of rhetoric, it's going to encourage someone else to do the same thing.

- All right, well, sticking with polling, a group called Carolina Forward.

This is not the forward party, it's Carolina Forward, and a group called Change Research teamed up on a new US Senate poll this week, Sky.

Former Governor Roy Cooper, is leading in that poll, Republican Michael Whatley by about seven percentage points, about 9% of the 884 likely voters say they're still undecided.

That's quite a number.

It seems Whatley has slightly decreased the Cooper lead from August when Carolina Journal did its poll.

Governor Stein though, check this out, Scott.

Governor Stein's popular with 48% of those polled.

Donald Trump, 48% popular with those polled.

Now Donald Trump's negatives are more calcified at 50-some percent.

But interestingly, Stein and Trump, equally popular.

We are bipartisan.

- Yes, but people do not hate Governor Stein at the same level that they hate President Trump.

That was true in that I think it was 36% unfavorable for Governor Stein versus 50% with the president.

And I think Governor Stein's doing a great job of maintaining his presence out in Western North Carolina.

That carries some weight to it as well as working with legislators.

So they say he can work across the aisle, but if I'm a diehard Republican, I probably still don't like him.

- Seven point lead for Roy Cooper in a very early poll against a GOP candidate, well endorsed by the establishment Republican leadership in that White House.

I sense Whatley has some branding to do and then what happens to that 9% undecided?

- Well, everybody fights for that 9% undecided is what happens.

And they receive a ton of ads and mail.

But the Carolina Journal Poll polled this as well and we saw the race reduce as well.

I think everybody's seen it tighten up, which is one, good news for Michael Whatley since he's not really run a campaign yet.

But I think Joe will back me up on this that we've had with the birth of the Super PAC, we also have the birth of lazy candidates who go out there and expect the super PAC to do a lot of work for them and they don't campaign for themselves.

There's a lot of upside from Michael Whatley if he will do simple blocking and tackling of saying good things about himself and bad things about his opponent at the same time, and run a campaign that way as opposed to just sitting back and waiting on all the outside groups to rush in.

Roy Cooper can't seem to get over 47-48%, which is enough if there's a third party candidate to come in and win the race.

But for somebody who's been in statewide elected office since 2000, that's a hump he's gonna have to get over.

- Joe, I hadn't thought about that.

All that outside money coming in here.

So that 9% could be worth $900 million in campaign spending, I guess?

- Well, absolutely.

Well, the prediction in the US Senate race is somewhere between $700 and $800 million will be spent by all of the outside groups combined with what the candidates themselves spend.

I think looking at the polls, and it's interesting in the poll that Skye was referring to, we're trying to anticipate whether 2026 is likely to be a wave election, a dynamic where the party out of control of the White House benefits from anger that voters have about things that have been assigned to the responsibility of the incumbent in the presidency.

But the generic ballots where you ask people, "Regardless of who the candidate is, are you likely to support the Republican or Democratic candidate for Congress or for the House?"

Those numbers in the poll are relatively close still, with a slight advantage for Democrats at this point.

But the one statistic that was interesting, in the State House and Senate generic ballots, you had 40% of unaffiliated voters saying they didn't know.

And so, it's not clear to me that there are the dynamics yet to predict a wave election by and large that would help all democratic candidates.

But I do think the relative entrenchment of voters probably means the Trump numbers in the poll, like 50-50, that's probably where the Senate race is.

Because people are gonna vote along that sensitivity.

You're either for Trump or against Trump, and that's gonna affect who you decide to vote for in the US Senate race.

- Mike, make no mistake, the polls right now, just fun conversation fodder and I appreciate people investing.

It gives us at least a temperature check right now.

How much could it change between now and say a year, year and a half from now?

- It depends on how much money we spend I guess.

[all laugh] My over/under on this one, I think we're gonna hit a billion in spending on this race.

- I've read that.

- Boy, you could do some good things with that much money.

- Boy, couldn't we all though?

[Joe chuckling] But I think that's where you're gonna end up spending is I think that $700-800, I think it's gonna be closer to a billion.

- Wow.

- As far as movement, something between these two polls that I'd like to talk about is that the Carolina Forward Poll was two weeks ago.

September 7th, I think?

They finished their polling- - Yes.

- And the Carolina Journal Poll was last week after we had seen the murder on the Charlotte light rail and the Charlie Kirk murder.

So would that favor - Good point.

- Whatley a little bit?

I think yes in there.

- Maybe.

- Great catch.

Let's go one final thing to you, Joe, about the UNC system, says enrollment growth across North Carolina campuses broke a quarter million students this fall, breaking the record they set last year.

The only campus that lost students was UNC Asheville, which is in a Helene recovery zone.

It's fully open for business, it gets a pass for this.

UNC system leaders are also exploring a possible tuition increase for new students enrolling as soon as 2026.

The new students could pay 3% higher tuition than existing students who would be exempt.

But the individual campus in this case gets to decide whether it wants to raise taxes.

Very interesting policy.

Your local campus can determine whether your local student will pay more or not.

That's very interesting.

- It is very interesting and not surprising that the UNC system is growing.

In fact, North Carolina is one of only 10 states in America where the population of people under the age of 18 is also growing.

We are growing as a state, but our age, our average age is getting older because people are living longer.

Most states are not seeing an increase in the population of those under 18, but we are.

And so, as a state, our university system is gonna have more applicants because there's a bigger population of North Carolinians of college age.

And so, building out the necessary resources to accommodate that will be important.

- Got about 90 seconds left.

Mike, your thoughts on this growth, but Peter Hans almost made it 10 years without any tuition increase.

This looks like he may get to nine.

- Yeah, and I think having spent most of my career around universities, there has been continuing pressure on the Board of Governors and the 16 individual Boards of Trustees.

So I appreciate what President Hans is doing in giving that flexibility to those trustees who are a little closer to their campus and these chancellors.

- Any words, Skye, on this, more of us are going to college.

That's always a good thing to hear, right?

- Yeah, and UNC has had fairly low prices for a long time.

If you look at other state schools, it is a deal to be a North Carolinian and go to a North Carolina school.

- Don, 20 seconds.

We can go back to school now.

- We can go back to school now, but community college, community college, community college.

That's my thing.

- [Kelly] They do get overlooked, don't they?

- They are, I think they are the golden child that is overlooked of North Carolina education.

- I'm a community college trustee, so I say hear, hear to that.

- There you go, that's a wrap on this show.

Thank you so much for being on.

Donald, hope you will come back.

You are not banned.

You're a welcome guest on "State Lines".

- Thank you.

- More importantly, we love that you watch us, always tune in every week.

Email your thoughts and opinions on this show to statelines@pbsnc.org.

I'm Kelly McCullen, I appreciate you.

Thank you for watching, and I'll see you next time.

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