Thanks for joining us.

Republican political consultant Jamie Roe is in the loop with his take on the presidential race in our state.

Our lead story, Ms .Harris, Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance all visit Michigan.

What did they say when they were here?

To answer that around the OTR table, Kyle Melinn, Jordyn Hermani and Bill Ballenger.

Sit in with us as we get the inside out, off the record production of Off the Record is made possible in part by Martin Waymire, a full service strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

Learn more at Martinwaymire.com and now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick.

Thank you very much.

Welcome to Studio C. As we continue on our road toward this election, how are we ready for this to be over?

Yes, well, yeah, we've got a long way to go.

All right.

Let's first of all, before we get to the visit by all the candidates into Michigan, Jordyn, we had the labor unions checking in on a very serious debate going on with the tip workers who want to hang on to their tips.

And the union said thanks, but no thanks.

How come?

Right.

So we have about six of the state's largest unions that came out.

They wrote a letter to the House speake and the Senate majority leader.

The House and Senate are obviously both controlled by Democrats, basically saying, hey, do not touch what the Supreme Court came down with earlier in the summer, which would phase out a tipped wage for workers.

It's just under $4 right now in Michigan and it would bump Michigan's 1033 an hour minimum wage.

Under the ruling, the minimum wage would increase nearly $15 an hour by 2028, and that tipped wage would be gone by 2030 and it would match minimum wage level.

So everyone's quote unquote, on the even playing field, labor unions said, hey, don't don't mess with that.

This was a victory for workers rights.

And that doesn't really bod well as we many of us know that unions and Democrats are usually typically in good alignment.

It doesn't bod well for people who are looking to get that change.

Well, Kyle what's interesting is when we had Mr. Ellis, who is from the Ba Owners Association in this seat, he was talking very optimistically about finding a compromise with the D's.

And he said, I have a commitment or they want to talk to me.

The legislative leaders game over right now, an it would certainly seem like it.

I mean, I would say it's game over because this whole this whole scheme was put together by ROC, the Restaurant Opportunities Center, and which is pretty aligned with the labor unions, and they created this formula to make it clear that these servers are at least supposed to be guaranteed now the same minimum wage as everybody else, but that we saw also earlier this week that some servers, hundreds of servers came to the Capitol and said, but but we're not making out on this.

I mean, some lose money.

We're actually going to lose money because people are going to stop tipping 20% on their bill.

And instead of coming home with $100, $150 in tips, I'm just making the minimum wage.

Might as well work at Burger King.

Tip workers are screwed.

That's what the bottom line is.

I mean, look, it was pretty much preordained as far as I'm concerned.

The Democrats in the legislature weren't going to do anything on this to begin with.

And now any prospect that they would do anything has been dashed by the union statement.

So game over.

Only thing they got tipped workers out of this was this modified Supreme Court twitch to postpone the phasing out of the temp wage until 2030-1 year.

That's it.

That's all they got and they're getting screwed.

I saw the people who are watching this now at home are wondering, so how does this impact me?

In fact, there could be, if you believe what the bar owners and restaurant folks are saying is a couple of things will happen.

Some businesses will simply close.

All right.

We don't know what that numbe is, but the number is up there.

Some workers will leave.

Okay.

So basically the hospitality industry will be you go in and order your food, go up to the bar and pick it u and bring it back to your table.

This decision came out, the unions said right away, this is just business as usual business crying wolf and it's all B.S.

And they're just trying to get this thin scaled back by the legislature, and we're not liking it at that point.

And that was like two or three weeks ago.

Now, yesterday.

That's the end of it.

Yeah.

All right.

So everybody in his uncle was in the state this week.

What was the lead out of all of these visits, Kyle?

Oh, gosh Auto industry is going to die.

Donald Trump basically predicted it's on its last legs.

Kamala Harris with Oprah Winfrey.

You know, Michiga just continues to stay relevant.

And so these folks are goin to continue to get earned media and they're going to keep bringing up different issues in small crowds to get the TV cameras there.

West Michigan is seen as a very critical part of the state a critical part of the country.

So you continue to see J.D.

Vance go there.

He's been in the state five times, four times he's been to West Michigan.

That's got to tell you something.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is going to Flint, of all things.

I mean, that just kind of seems counterintuitive, except when you take a look at the media markets and you realize that if you're able to go to Flint, you're going to guarantee yourself all of those news station in that tri city area in Flint are going to show up.

So you get free earned media there.

So it's just for both campaigns, they still see this as relevan as Michigan is being relevant.

And as long as we are still relevant, they're going to keep coming here.

I mean, I looked bac at the headlines the other day.

I think we're going on something like two straight months where a presidential candidate or vice presidential candidate has visited the state of Michigan at least once a week.

And that really just goes to underscore A, again, I feel like a broken record saying this, how much of a swing state we are, but B, how tight this race is in Michigan.

I mean, when you go back to 2020 and Joe Biden won by, what, 154,000 votes, I honestly will be surprised if we do hit such a large threshold and think we may be more looking at something like a 2016 turnout.

William?

Well this is groun zero on the Electoral College, Michigan along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and a few other states.

So the candidates are going to keep coming.

And you've got actually dueling Vice President nominees Tim Walz and JD Vanc both picked to a certain extent because each of the presidential nominees thought they might really be able to hel in some other Midwestern states simply because they've got that Midwestern vibe that is missing fro the top of the ticket otherwise.

And right now, I'd say JD Vance is losing that fight, and I'm wonderin whether he's setting himself up for real trouble getting reelected in Ohio if he's not elected this November.

Well it's to pick a guy from Ohio to try and engender goodwill in Michigan yo start.

Send him to Ann Arbor.

that blimp that they flew over, the University of Michigan Stadium.

Yeah.

Yeah, that's right.

Yeah.

What about Mr. Trump continues to beat on this auto industry thing.

He basically said, you know, the industry has got two or three years to go, which nobody in this state has said that at all.

No, but I mean, he has become the master of hyperbole and stretching things out and and really kind of taking it another ste to try and get people excited, whether it's that or I'm going to cut your energy rates 50%.

You know, it's it's.

If I can.

Yeah, if I can.

Right.

Yeah, sure I can.

You know so it's it is hyperbole.

It's trying to get at our heartstring and pull in on our insecurities about whether we're going to have a job, whether we're going to have an auto industry.

And that's and that's so important to this state Well his argument is that EVs are taking over the industry and Michigan is going to lose that battle to China.

And so the traditional model of the fossil fuel automotive ca that was developed in the state over a century ago is going to be kaput and EVs are taking over.

And Michigan is not where the action is.

You know, Debbie Stabenow, we talked to her a couple of weeks ago.

She said what is driving this debate on the Republican side is the oil industry.

They are they are the ones that are pulling the strings here to make sure that they have some part of the market left over after the EV revolution, quote unquote, is over.

Well, if you take a loo at Donald Trump's contributions, he does get a significant amount from the petroleum industry.

And he has talked on the campaign trail, day one, drill, baby, drill.

So that does line up.

I think what you guy are talking about does line up about the insecuritie and then talking again, though, about West Michigan and the Goshen plant up north and how J.D.

Vance has used that just recently.

Use that again in Sparta to try and get people excited about the idea of, oh my gosh, what happens if we get all these battery cars all made in China?

What does it look like for our industr and do we not have jobs anymore?

It's a good line that they're playing with, especially when a Democrati administration is giving money to help make this transition happen.

Well, the polling data, we have two polls out.

The Emerson Hill poll says it is tied here in Michigan, but the university from Connecticut, what's the name of the university?

Quinnipiac.

Thank you.

Okay.

All right.

Notice how I didn't want t pronounce it and I never will.

They have a good hockey team.

Yeah, they have a five point lead.

They gave her a five point bounce out of the debate in Michigan.

So go figure which one is right.

Well, I think if you take a look at all the polls since Harris becam a nominee in Michigan, there's I counted 18 and Trump is only up in four of them.

And there's like three ties.

But the one thing that that I have noticed that is that is similar in all of them is that there's there's a small, narrow band that each of the candidates are operating within.

With Harris, it's somewhere between 51 and 48, 47%.

Every single poll has her within that band.

And with Trump, he hasn't been able to crest 50% since Harris has been a candidate.

That's the magic number.

In Michigan.

Not one poll has had him at 50%.

He's been at 49, but not 50.

So he's in this 49-46 band.

So what I see is I see tha I mean, I'm noting that there's a five point margin in one poll and then another poll has a tied, bu they're both within those bands.

So if you look at it that way, these polls are still within the margin of error of each other and that the the upshot is tha Harris is still marginally up, but again, still within the margin of error.

I mean, it's like the weather in Michigan.

If you don't like whatever the poll says about your candidate, just wait 5 minutes and there will be a new one.

I mean, we've consistently seen, like Kyle just said, the same thing sort of over and over, and they're operating within floating between these two metrics that, you know, it hasn't changed in I mean, it's changed slightly, but it just goes to sho how much people are kind of done with this year.

All right.

All right.

Let's shift gears.

Banning or excuse me, not banning, restricting the use of cell phones in schools.

This has now become a cause celeb.

Yes.

Well, it could at the state level become a cause celeb.

Although I don't see any evidence of real energy in the legislature.

They are fallin all over themselves to do this.

They had a shot at this a couple of years ago.

Local school district can already do this and some are the Governor can also sign an EO an executive order to do it.

You know she could try that.

I mean, the point is it's all about getting cell phone use out of the classroom particularly doing during instructional hours.

I mean, maybe there's some rationale to students basically having cell phones when they're not actually in the classroom.

But the best excuse for keeping cell phones with children in class is we got to make sur that they can call their parents and law enforcement or vise versa.

If the school i being terrorized.

The parents in many respects locally are driving this debate.

I mean, I can just think back to when I was in high school and I would just as somewhat defend the usage of cell phones in school.

They were brought into instructional time.

I mean, there would be times when you would be able to, you know, answer trivia questions that were going on for homework on the board or something like that.

I mean, I understand the argument definitely for banning them.

Both My parents are teachers.

I have heard many storie about how frustrating it can be.

I mean, I also understan the need for not banning them.

I get that it can be very concerning to not have the ability to talk to a child.

I'm not a parent myself, granted, I can't fully comprehend that.

But I mean, in all fairness, we survived so many years prior to cell phones where you couldn't get a hold of your child.

I can't imagine that this one generation of student is that drastically different.

I think that, you know, banning.

But to that point, banning should probably be left up to the schools.

I do find it a little funny that Republicans are kind of leading the charge on this one, when they're traditionally small government.

Rep. Mark Tisdale has worked on this for over a year.

Thi legislation.

He's really done a deep dive.. We got into this in pretty good the other day and it was really on top of this.

He basically says look at the last thing you want.

In the midst of an active shooter prowling around the school.

Is your kid on the phone with their parent when they aren't listening to the perso at the head of the room?

Okay.

You don't want all of the parents jumping in their cars and running to the school while the first responders are trying to get there.

And he said, I'm very clear that I understand the angst of the parents in this situation.

But his argument was Kyle, that kids are actually safer if the parents stay out of the loop.

That's a dangerous thing to say.

That's an interesting argument to make.

I find it.

What I find interesting in this is that Mark Tisdale, a state representative out of Rochester, which is in a politically competitive district, has picked up this issu and is now working it two months before an election.

So maybe from my standpoint, it sounds like there is some connection he's trying to mak with with parents, with schools, trying to make the statement that having cell phones as a distraction in the classroom and that that's something that maybe better taking care of as an issue state wide.

It's certainly a different debate and something worth having.

But I have a feeling that he has people in his district tapping him on the shoulder saying this is a good idea.

And that is in response to that.

He confirmed it.

He said, we meet once a mont with the all the administrators, the principals, and they are all over us.

Okay, do something.

It helps the mental health situation, the bullying online and stuff like that.

Did you ever run into that in school?

Me being bullied?

No, no, no, no, no.

This like a very pointed question.

Most of mine are.

But I digress.

Social media, though.

Yeah.

In school, I mean, I saw it more so moving into college that I mean, I can think of, for instance, the campus act, Yik Yak, and that's going to date me horrifically, but yeah, I mean there's all sorts of reasons why social media has been use both positively and negatively.

To me it just seems like a really strange fight to pick right now of all times to feel Tisdale's got a winning issue.

And I think it's a winning issue for Republicans.

I guess what I think is one of the few time I can think of the Republicans might be in sync with the MEA or teachers in general.

I'll tell you, it's a winning argument if you can make cell phones disrupting their classroom.

Right But parents vote, too, is all.

My point is in that, you know, it seems like a strange issue to pick right now.

To Kyle's point, fewer than 60 days ahead of an election.

It's not really going to go anywhere.

So maybe it's fine in that regard, because I it doesn't look like the legislature is coming back to vote on much soon.

It's not going to go anywhere right now.

But look this may be a lagging indicator.

You could see it on top of everybody listening here So bill back i the day before, were there cell phones, If parents, if you're your parents wanted to get in touch with you in school, what would they do?

Call the principal's office.

Exactly.

And would you get the message and then you could ignore it?

Yeah, I don't think you have any choice but to obey it.

But they have actually said they have put more people on duty to answer the phone in the principal's office.

If parents want to call in, it's interesting, I think they'll I think they will pick it up in the new year.

I do, but I've been wrong before.

All right.

Let's call in our guest to talk about politics with Jamie Roe down in our favorite county, Macomb County.

Mr. Roe, how you doing?

Good to see you.

You're doing wonderful Greetings from the center of the universe in Michigan.

Oh, no, no.

Actually, Frasie is the center of the universe.

Okay, Did you know that?

Which is in McComb County?

I'm aware of that.

Okay, so look at will you concede tha you're your candidate for the US Senate by the name of Rogers is losing this race today?

As we sit here.

Do you concede that point?

I will not concede that point.

I think momentum's with Mik Rogers.

I'm not talking about momentum, I'm talking about who's ahead.

But we're not doing big Mo.

We're doing big lead.

Well, you know, quite honestly the election isn't held today.

But the fact of the matter is, Elissa Slotkin has already spent $25 million lying about Mike Rogers record and her numbers don't move.

Rogers is coming up.

People are getting reacquainted with him.

And we're very confident that come November 5th, Mike Rogers, is gonna be the next senator from Michigan.

So all the polling data that has her with a firm lead beyond the margi of error are simply dead wrong?

I don't know that there is any polling that shows her with a firm lead beyond the margin of error.

Well there's one that just came out that gave her a five point lead.

Plus or minus what?

Let me just say this.

I'm not going to debate polls, particularly media polls.

Of course you're not because you're losing them, right?

Well well, no, because the media polls are often done not to reflect public opinion, but to try and shape it.

And we are paying attention to what we have internally.

And what we have internally shows that we are on the path to victory in November.

What does your polling data show about John James?

Have you been following that race?

And now that the Democrats are starting to actually spend some real money on their candidate, Carl Marlinga, is there concern that he's in trouble?

I think John James is doing great.

He won last year in 2022.

In a year when we're getting beat by ten points at the top of the ticket and and held on to win i what is sort of a tough district at that time.

I think he's got two years of experienc now where he's really delivered particularly here for Macomb County.

And I'm pretty confident John James is going to be going to be strong on Election Day.

He's been he's done an absolutely great job in Congress.

He's worked with all of our local leaders down here.

I was speaking to one local Democrat leader at an event the other day who was praising the job that John James has done for Macomb County.

So we're pretty confident actually live from about 500 feet outside of John James district right now.

And there's he has got a ton of support down here, Macomb County.

The other thing that they did that the 1.7 million, I guess from some outside group that's going to come in and support Marlinga bought late in the game at X you kno extortion rates on Detroit TV.

So it's not going to go as fa as what John James already has, confident that he's going to have the ability to get his message out.

And quite honestly, Macomb County is voting Republican.

So that's why I'm saying it from the top of the ticket back down.

You know, Trump, you think, is going to carry Macomb County pretty easily.

I think Trump is going to carry Macomb County better than he carried it in 2016 or 2020.

And he carried it both.

And I think we're going to see a big margin here out of the county in I'll just tell you this, his coattails in Macomb County are long.

When we we were running in 2016, Trump carried McComb County solidly in helped us to elect a our county treasurer.

My former boss, Candice Miller, got elected public works commissioner and we elected a woman that probably had no busines winning as as our county clerk.

So the the the coattail for Trump in this area are long.

And I think it helped not only John James, but it also helps us to take back the majority in the state House, where we have several very competitive races for the state House here in Macomb County, feeling very confident about those as well.

To that to that point, you know, you mentioned that John James won in 2022.

He only won by half a percentage point, though.

And, you know, with Trump on the ballot this year, it's no secret that suburban women helped deliver Joe Biden a victory in 2020.

All that being said, with the current rhetoric that we're kind of hearing out of the Vance-Trump ticket, are we at all concerned that that point five victory that you guys had in 2022, that that's going to be, you know, drawn down like, what are you guys, I guess, doin moving into this election year differently that you didn't do in '22?

Well, one thing we hav is a strong top of the ticket.

I mean, that that is the very different situation than it was in 2022.

Also, Prop thre is not on the ballot in in 2024.

Those were things that really hurt us at the ballot box in areas across the state.

I can't tell you how much more helpful it is for someone like John James or the state House races to hav Donald Trump leading the ticket.

And Mike Rogers, I mean, there are two top of the ticket races are going to be very strong in this area, and that's going to help across the board.

And as far as communicating with suburban women, yes.

And we're going to talk about issues that they care about, like the economy, starting with the economy and the border, to think that that women, suburban women are only interested in abortio like some on the other side do.

I think it is a slap at suburban women.

Now, Jamie, you had mentioned a little earlier about the state House races and you feel like Republicans are going to be successful there.

How many seats do you believe?

Just the McComb County, the Republicans will be able to flip in McComb Count and be specific on which ones?

Well, I think that there obviously, I think the ones that are up for grabs are pretty self-explanatory based on where the Democrat are plowing cash into right now.

I think Nat Shannon is in very big trouble in Sterling Height and Warren and Denise Mentzer, I think is in very big trouble in Clinton Township, in Sterling Heights, in Mount Clemens.

And Mai Xiong I think, is it has has some issues.

And that seat is one that Trump carried twice previously.

So I thin we're going to be in the battle in all three of those.

And I thin all of our incumbents are safe.

Mr. Trump' rhetoric about the auto industry has not exactly sounded complimentary.

Is there a potential backlash from him coming in this state and saying, we're going to be toast in two years, that Donald Trump is telling th truth about the auto industry?

The fact of the matter is that the the Biden-Harris- Slotkin EV mandate is a problem for the auto industry.

You know, I'm here in Macomb County right now.

You know what we do?

We manufacture things in Macomb County, particularly for the auto industry.

And one thing that electric vehicles don't need ar engines and parts and certainly a lot less parts than you have in electric vehicle.

And you don't need engine plants, you don't need transmission plants, you don't need all the things that you need to put together an electric vehicle and it is 40% less labor.

And the UAW themselves knows this, 40% less labor to build an EV than to build a gas powered car.

Yes.

So also they also counter that new jobs will be created in the EV industry and those people will simply segway from one to the other.

40% less labor, Tim to build an EV, and that includes whatever those new jobs are that that will allegedly be created in.

Quite honestly another thing I think that most people around here involved in the auto industry have problems with is they do not want to hav to import technology from China and import Chinese Communist Party connected companies to build the automobiles of the future.

And quite, quite honestly right now you cannot build an EV without importing minerals and materials from China.

Who controls 80% of the world market for the chemicals that are needed to build electric vehicle batteries?

So EV is EVs empower China and internal combustion engines power America.

So I'm for powering the American auto industry not the Chinese auto industry.

Jamie.

the Teamsters have refused to endorse in the presidential race this year.

Quite unusual.

First time they haven't endorsed the Democratic nominee since before Bill Clinton.

So what do you make of that?

I think that it was interesting when thei announcement came out yesterday because the presiden of the Teamsters Union said that Kamala Harris did not achieve a majority of the poll of their members, and Donal Trump didn't claim a consensus.

So it makes you think if they had if Kamala Harris had gotten a majority of their members, they likely would have endorsed her.

But I don't know.

Trump needed 100% o something like that to get the the union had the courage to actually reflect the will of their members.

We're seeing this with blue collar workers across the countr and certainly across this state, that they know that their live were better under Donald Trump and that he is about building American industry, not foreign industry.

And they're showing up in the polls.

I thought it was very interesting that 50 in the Teamsters own poll of their members, 59% wanted Donald Trump.

But the union leadership didn't have the courage to to endorse him.

And I think that was a mistake on their part.

But I think it shows tha we're winning blue collar votes.

We are the party of the working class now, Republican Party is the party of the working class.

And we're feeling very strong about where we're at with those voters.

Mr. Roe, thank you for being on the program.

It's good to see you again.

Nice to see you, too.

Okay.

So in other words, do you thin Harris is going to win, right?

I do not.

Just just checking.

Also, our thanks to our panel.

Next week.

More off the record right here.

Please join us.

Production of Off the Record is made possible, in part, by Martin Waymire, a full service strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

Learn more at Martin Waymire.com For more off the record, visit WKAR.org Michigan public television stations have contributed to the production costs of off the record.