FOUNDATION, AND THE CHARLES A. FRUEAUFF FOUNDATION.

>> Bonnie: ALMOST EVERY DAY WE SEE SIMILAR HEADLINES: "BIRTH RATES DECLINING: LABOR SHORTAGE WORSENS."

BUT SOME EXPERTS BELIEVE THERE IS NO LABOR SHORTAGE IN THE U.S., JUST A SHORTAGE OF DECENT JOBS PAYING A LIVING WAGEb&AND THAT IS WHY MILLIONS OF AMERICANS ARE OUT OF WORK LONG TERM.

EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE UNEMPLOYED, THEIR NUMBERS ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT MEASURES THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.

SO WHO ARE THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED?

HOW DID THEY BECOME UNEMPLOYED?

AND WHY IS THE NUMBER OF AMERICANS OF WORKING AGE WHO HAVE GIVEN UP LOOKING FOR WORK AT OR NEAR HISTORIC HIGHS?

I AM BONNIE ERBC AND THAT'S THE SUBJECT OF THIS "TO THE CONTRARY" SPECIAL REPORT.

IS THERE A LABOR SHORTAGE?

[MUSIC] >> Ellwood Davis: PEOPLE AT THE BOTTOM ARE GETTING WORSE ALL THE TIME.

I WAS JUST DRIVEN OUT.

THERE IS NO PATH TO MOVING FORWARD.

>> Bonnie: ELLWOOD DAVIS HAS A GREAT EDUCATION.

HE WORKED FOR SOME OF THE COUNTRY'S LARGEST CORPORATIONS DESIGNING MASSIVE COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS.

IN SHORTHAND, HE WAS IN IT EXECUTIVE.

>> Ellwood Davis: I WAS INVOLVED IN A LOT OF DEVELOPMENT OF USING WEB DEVELOPMENT FOR COMMUNICATIONS WITHIN A COMPANY AND ALSO FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SELLING PRODUCTS, NOT JUST MARKETING THEM ABOUT SELLING PRODUCTS THROUGH THE INTERNET.

I WAS JUST DRIVEN OUT.

I JUST ENOUGH IN THE DIRECTION THEY WERE GOING, AND I NOTICED THAT THEY SPENT NO TIME TRAINING AND KEEPING AMERICAN WORKERS UP WITH THE LATEST THINGS.

THERE IS NO PATH TO MOVING FORWARD.

I MEAN, THERE'S JUST A CAP ON WHERE YOU CAN GO.

>> Bonnie: DAVIS SAYS HE AND MANY OTHER EXECUTIVE IT WORKERS WERE DRIVEN OUT OF THE INDUSTRY A DECADE OR MORE AGO BY THE H1-B VISA PROGRAM.

USED BY THE GIANTS OF THE COMPUTER INDUSTRY TO BRING IN HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF IT WORKERS WITH MUCH LESS TRAINING, BUT WHO WOULD WORK FOR LOWER SALARIES.

DAVIS SAYS MOST OF THE IMMIGRANTS REPLACING TOP IT EXECUTIVES COME FROM PARTS OF ASIA.

AMERICAN COMPANIES PREFERRED HIRING PEOPLE FROM OTHER COUNTRIES, HE SAYS, BECAUSE THEY WERE ABLE TO EXPLOIT THEM ECONOMICALLY.

>> Ellwood Davis: BECAUSE THEY CAN TREAT THEM DIFFERENT, THEY CAN HOLD THE OPPORTUNITY OF GETTING A GREEN CARD OVER THEIR HEAD.

THEY CAN BE RELATIVELY ABUSIVE TOWARD THEM, OVERWORKING THEM, LONG HOURS, NO LIFE.

AND THAT BECOMES A CULTURE.

AND I SAW THE CULTURE DEVELOPING AS THEY WERE PUSHING ME OUT THE DOOR.>> Bonnie: WHAT ABOUT PAIS?

>> Ellwood Davis: PAY IS LOWER.

IN THE THING THAT'S THAT IS THEY ARE NOT JUST ENTRY-LEVEL WORKERS.

THEY WORK THEM UP UNTIL THEY ARE IN MANAGEMENT, UPPER MANAGEMENT AND DECISION-MAKING CAPABILITIES.

>> Bonnie: OF COURSE THERE ARE MANY REASONS FOR HIGHER LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT AND IMMIGRATION IS JUST ONE.

THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IS THE STRENGTH OF THE ECONOMY.

BUT THE ADDITION OF MORE PEOPLE TO THE WORKFORCE IS THE REASON LEAST UNDERSTOOD BY THE PUBLIC AND IT IS WHY MOST PEOPLE HAVE NO IDEA HOW MANY ABLE-BODIED PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE ARE NOT PARTICIPATING IN THE LABOR FORCE.

THE MONTHLY LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURE FROM THE LABOR DEPARTMENT UNDER PLACE THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE ON THE SIDELINES DUE TO THE WAY IT MEASURES UNEMPLOYMENT.

THE LABOR FORCE IS MADE UP OF ALL AMERICANS BETWEEN 16 AND 64 YEARS OLD WHO ARE FULLY EIGHT PEOPLE ABLE-BODIED.

MANY IN THIS VERY LARGE GROUP DO NOT SHOW UP AS UNEMPLOYED FOR ONE VERY ARBITRARY REASON.

WHY?

TO BE CONSIDERED UNEMPLOYED, A PERSON MUST TELL THE GOVERNMENT THEY HAVE JOB HUNTED IN THE LAST FOUR WEEKS.

IF NOT, THEY DON'T COUNT.

>> Ellwood Davis: IT IS REALLY IMPORTANT FOR EVERYBODY WHO'S LOOKING AT IT, ESPECIALLY COMMUNICATORS, THE MEDIA, AND PERHAPS OPPOSITION POLITICIANS, TO POINT OUT THAT THERE ARE A LOT OF OTHER THINGS THAT WE NEED TO MEASURE OTHER THAN JUST THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR PEOPLE WHO LOOK FOR A JOB LAST MONTH.

AND OF COURSE ONE OF THE THINGS WE NEED TO MEASURE IS HOW ARE WE DOING IN TERMS OF INCOME INEQUALITY?

BECAUSE YOU CAN HAVE FULL EMPLOYMENT BUT MAYBE, MAYBE ALL THE GAINS IN WAGES ARE GOING TO PEOPLE AT THE TOP IN THE PEOPLE AT THE BOTTOM ARE JUST GETTING WORSE OFF ALL THE TIME.

AND THAT'S KIND OF WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING THROUGH THE YEARS.

>> IF YOU LOOK FIVE WEEKS AGO, YOU JUST DROP OUT OF THE NUMERATOR AND DENOMINATOR AND ARE NOT CONSIDERED UNEMPLOYED.

IF YOU HAVE GIVEN UP LOOKING FOR A JOB, YOU ARE NOT CONSIDERED UNEMPLOYED.

WHAT WE SEE IN THE UNITED STATES IS CONTINUALLY HIGH RATES OF UNEMPLOYED b ÃÃRATES OF PEOPLE NOT IN THE LABOR FORCE AT ALL, SO THEY DON'T EVEN SHOW UP IN ANY UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS.

VERY ROUGHLY IF WE LOOK AT PEOPLE, SAY, WITHOUT A COLLEGE EDUCATION, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT b ÃÃWITH JUST A HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATION, HE USED TO BE A CASE THAT AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT 75 PERCENT, THREE-FOURTHS VERY ROUGHLY, WERE IN THE LABOR MARKET.

NOW IT'S MORE LIKE TWO THIRDS, AGAIN, VERY ROUGHLY.

AND THAT HAS NOT IMPROVED REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST THREE YEARS.

THERE'S ALL THESE PEOPLE, PUT IT THIS WAY, WORKING AGE, SAY 18 TO 64, WHO DON'T WORK AND SAY THEY ARE NOT LOOKING FOR IT.

THEY'RE NOT IN PERSON, NOT THE MILITARY.

WHEN WE LOOK AT JUST PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT INSTITUTIONS OF ANY KIND, THIS JUST MILLIONS, TENS OF MILLIONS OF THEM WHO IN THE PAST IT SEEMS WOULD HAVE BEEN WORKING FOR AT LEAST LOOKING FOR A JOB OR JUST TOTALLY OUT OF IT.

>> Bonnie: U.S. REPRESENTATIVE PRAMILA JAYAPAL WAS BORN IN INDIA.

SHE WORKED AS AN IMMIGRATION ACTIVISTS AND IS THE FIRST ASIAN-AMERICAN MEMBER OF CONGRESS FROM WASHINGTON STATE.

>> WELL, THIS IS ONE OF THE THINGS I THINK THAT SOMETIMES IS INTRODUCED TO TRY TO PAY PEOPLE AGAINST OTHERS.

BUT TO ME, THEY ARE, THEY ARE ALL ISSUES WE HAVE TO WORK ON COLLECTIVELY.

SO WE DO HAVE TO MAKE SURE THAT WE ARE PROVIDING JOBS AND TRAINING AND EDUCATION FOR EVERYBODY IN THE UNITED STATES, INCLUDING THOSE WHO WERE BORN IN THIS COUNTRY.

AND SO, THAT HAS BEEN A PRIORITY FOR ME.

IT'S WHY WORK ON A $50 MINIMUM WAGE.

THAT'S WHY WORK ON, YOU KNOW, THE IDEA OF FREE COLLEGE OR HIGHER EDUCATION FOR EVERYBODY, REGARDLESS OF INCOME.

IT'S WHY I BELIEVE IN APPRENTICESHIP PROGRAMS.

WE HAVE TO MAKE SURE WE ARE ADDRESSING THOSE NEEDS OF OUR, OF OUR POPULATION.

>> Bonnie: BUT THERE IS A VERY DIFFERENT VIEW FROM SOME WHO ARE OUT IN THE FIELD TRYING TO HELP LEGAL IMMIGRANTS AND NATIVEBORN AMERICANS STAY EMPLOYED IN DECENT PAYING JOBS.

>> AND WHEN WE HAVE THIS HUGE INFLUX OF UNDOCUMENTED WORKERS THAT ARE HERE BECAUSE OF THEIR STATUS, THEY ARE WILLING TO WORK FOR LESSS, WE HAVE SEEN A HUGE EROSION OF MIDDLE-CLASS JOBS BECAUSE THE UNION'S WHICH ARE ALWAYS HIGHER AND BETTER CONDITIONS.

THE BENEFITS THAT WE PAY FOR OUR EMPLOYEES.

NON-UNION DOESN'T GET ANY OF THAT, OR AN UNDOCUMENTED WORKER GETS NONE OF THAT.

SO LET'S JUST SAY FOR CONVERSATION, OUR PACKAGES $20 AN HOUR, THEY WILL WORK FOR 10.

SO OBVIOUSLY OUR EMPLOYERS THAT ARE ASSIGNED TO COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENTS WITH US ARE LOCKED INTO A WAGE RATE.

O THEY COULD NEVER COMPETE WITH THAT GUY BECAUSE THEY ARE LOCKED IN AN ARRAY.

AND WHEN THEY HAVE A NONUNION EMPLOYER, USUALLY IT'S A NONUNION EMPLOYER WHO USES AN UNDOCUMENTED WORKER, HE'S GETTING THAT SAME KIND OF LABOR FOR $10 CHEAPER.

>> Bonnie: THE LABOR DEPARTMENT ISSUES SIX UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES EACH MONTH AND LABELS THEM U1 THROUGH U6.

THE THIRD, U 30, THE ONES WE HEAR ON THE NEWS EACH MONTH, MEASURES PEOPLE WITHOUT JOBS WHO HAVE ACTIVELY LOOKED FOR WORK WITHIN THE PAST FOUR WEEKS.

U6 MEASURES THE PERCENTAGE OF THE LABOR FORCE THAT IS UNEMPLOYED, UNDEREMPLOYED, OR DISCOURAGED.

BUT EVEN THAT NUMBER DOES NOT INCLUDE THE TRUE PERCENTAGE OF AMERICANS WHO COULD WORK BUT CHOOSE NOT TO OR ARE FORCED OUT BY THE MARKET.

>> I DO THINK THAT THERE IS A LOT OF MISINFORMATION THAT HAS FED A LOT OF FEAR AND DEHUMANIZATION OF IMMIGRANTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE CURRENT POLITICAL CLIMATE.

BUT THE DATA AND THE FACTS SHOW THAT IMMIGRANTS CONTRIBUTE, AND EXPAND OUR ECONOMIC BASE, WHICH IS GOOD FOR EVERYBODY.

>> Bonnie: SOME EXPERTS BELIEVE A BETTER WAY TO UNDERSTAND HOW IMMIGRATION IMPACTS OUR ECONOMIC BASE AND HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED COMES FROM THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS' CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY.

IT REVEALS PERHAPS AN EVEN BIGGER PROBLEM THAN LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT.

IT SHOWS A GROWING SHARE OF ADULTS UNDER AGE 65 WHO ARE OUT OF THE WORKFORCE ALTOGETHER.

ALTHOUGH THE SHARE OF THOSE WHO HAVE JOINED THE WORKFORCE HAS RISEN SOMEWHAT IN RECENT YEARS, IT'S STILL HAS NOT RETURNED TO THE LEVEL BEFORE THE GREAT RECESSION.

THE MEGA IMMIGRATION ADVOCATES SAY THERE ARE ENOUGH RESOURCES IN THE U.S. BUDGET TO TRAIN AND TAKE CARE OF THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT AS WELL AS SUPPORTING NEW IMMIGRANTS' NEEDS FOR JOB TRAINING, PUBLIC SCHOOLING FOR THE CHILDREN, AND OTHER GOVERNMENT BENEFITS FOR WHICH THEY QUALIFY.

>> I THINK IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE HOW PEOPLE FEEL, AND THAT IS A VERY REAL NARRATIVE.

AND PEOPLE FEEL THAT PAIN IN THEIR EVERYDAY LIVES.

FAMILIES ARE STRUGGLING.THERE IS NO DOUBT.

AND WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT EVERYDAY AMERICANS ARE TAKEN CARE OF JUST LIKE IMMIGRANTS ARE TAKING CARE OF.

AND THAT INDUSTRIES IN THOSE INDUSTRIES IN PARTICULAR, WHAT STUDIES HAVE SHOWN AGAIN AND AGAIN, FROM GEORGE W. BUSH'S DEPARTMENT OF LABOR TO THE NEW AMERICAN ECONOMY REPORTS, WHICH IS A BIPARTISAN RESEARCH AND ADVOCACY GROUP, IMMIGRANTS ARE NOT TAKING AWAY JOBS.

THEY ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE EXPANSION OF THE ECONOMY BY FIRST BEING CONSUMERS, BY BEING TAXPAYERS, AND BY BEING ENTREPRENEURS.

>> Bonnie: THERE IS AN OCEAN THE DISAGREEMENT ON THIS POINT BETWEEN ADVOCATES FOR LIBERAL IMMIGRATION POLICIES AND THOSE FIGHTING FOR LESS OR NO IMMIGRATION.

DAN STEIN SAYS THE KINDS OF JOBS CREATED BY ENTREPRENEURIAL IMMIGRANTS MAY NOT PRODUCE AN ECONOMY AMERICANS WANT.

>> IF A FOREIGN DICTATOR EMPTIES OUT FOREIGN PRISONS AND THEN SENDS A BUNCH OF CRIMINALS HERE, WELL, IT CREATES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, BECAUSE YOU GOT TO HIRE MORE PRISON GUARDS AND SOCIAL WORKERS AND PEOPLE WHO MANUFACTURE PRISON EQUIPMENT.

BUT THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY SOUND ECONOMIC GROWTH.

WHAT YOU'RE TRYING TO ACHIEVE IS NOT JUST AGGREGATE GDP, YOU'RE TRYING TO ACHIEVE PER CAPITA GDP.

AND A LOT OF PEOPLE CONFLATE THE TWO AND ASSUME THAT JUST MORE PEOPLE MEANS MORE CONSUMING AND THEREFORE THAT'S BETTER.

BUT IN REALITY, YOU'RE TRYING TO ENHANCE PER CAPITA GDP, WHICH CAN ONLY COME ABOUT THROUGH INCREASING WORKER BARGAINING LEVERAGE.

>> Bonnie: AGGREGATE GDP MEASURES HOW MUCH THE ECONOMY PRODUCES ALTOGETHER.

PER CAPITA GDP MEASURES HOW MUCH INDIVIDUALS PRODUCE AND IS A MUCH BETTER GAUGE OF HOW INDIVIDUALS FEEL ABOUT THE ECONOMY.

WHILE EXPERTS ALSO DISAGREE ABOUT HOW MANY AMERICANS FEEL SECURE IN THE ECONOMY, THERE IS A HUGE DIVIDE BETWEEN THEM ABOUT WHETHER IMMIGRATION CONTRIBUTES MORE TO ECONOMIC ACTIVITY THAN IT TAKES BY, FOR EXAMPLE, LOWERING WAGES IN SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY WHERE JOBS DON'T REQUIRE ADVANCED DEGREES.

>> WE DON'T WANT TO HARM IMMIGRANTS ANY MORE THAN ANYBODY ELSE DOES.

WE JUST WANT A FAIR SYSTEM TO OUR CONTRACTORS AND OUR UNION MEMBERS THAT WE REPRESENT THAT PAY US MONEY TO FIND THEM GOOD WORK OPPORTUNITIES HAVE A LEG TO STAND ON, BECAUSE THERE'S JUST NO WAY EVERYTHING IS DONE BY LOW BID.

WHEN YOU BID CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS, THERE IS NO WAY CONTRACTORS CAN COMPETE WHEN THERE IS NO BOTTOM TO WAGES.

AND THAT'S WHERE CONTRACTORS CHEAT THE MOST, ON WAGES.

SO IF THEY CAN GET A BODY FOR $10 WHEN WE ARE CHARGING 20, THERE'S NO WAY THAT THE MIDDLE-CLASS JOBS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED, AND THAT'S WHAT WE WERE GETTING OUT WITH THE VERIFIED PIECES.

>> OFTEN, YES, IMMIGRANTS, NEWLY ARRIVED IMMIGRANTS, REFUGEES, FOR EXAMPLE, WILL TAKE LOWER SKILLED AND LOWER PAYING JOBS.

THE MEATPACKING INDUSTRY IS A PRIME EXAMPLE.

MANY PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN THIS COUNTRY ALREADY PREFERRED NOT TO HAVE THESE JOBS BECAUSE THEY ARE MORE DANGEROUS, THEY ARE MANUAL LABOR.

>> BUT THERE'S ANOTHER VIEW THAT SAYS THIS JUST ABOUT NO JOB AMERICANS WON'T DO AS LONG AS IT PAYS A LIVING WAGE, AND THERE WAS A LIVELY DEBATE ABOUT WHETHER LEGAL IMMIGRATION, A MILLION PEOPLE PER YEAR, AND ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION COMBINED TO LOWER WAGES FOR JOBS THAT USED TO PAY WELL.

THE LOS ANGELES TIMES PUBLISHED AN ARTICLE IN 2017 WITH THE HEADLINE: b CALIFORNIA CONSTRUCTION.

WORKER PAY SANK.b.

>> THEY DO, BECAUSE OF COURSE THEY INCREASE THE SUPPLY OF WORKERS.

THAT DOES LOWER THEIR WAGES TEMPORARILY.

BUT IT'S NOT ALL ACROSS THE BOARD, BECAUSE ONE THING THAT IMMIGRANTS HAVE IN COMMON IS THAT THEY DON'T SPEAK ENGLISH AS WELL AS NATIVEBORN AMERICANS.

AND SO, IT TENDS TO JUST AFFECT CERTAIN TYPES OF INDUSTRIES, SUCH AS CONSTRUCTION, AND IT DOESN'T AFFECT OTHER INDUSTRIES SUCH AS SALES OR MARKETING.

>> Bonnie: THE ARTICLE GOES ON TO SAY, IN THE SPAN OF A FEW DECADES, L.A. AREA CONSTRUCTION WENT FROM AN INDUSTRY THAT WAS TWO THIRDS WHITE AND LARGELY UNIONIZED THE ONE THAT IS OVERWHELMINGLY LATIN-X, MOSTLY NONUNION AND HAD HEAVILY RELIANT ON IMMIGRANTS.

ACCORDING TO A LOS ANGELES TIMES REVIEW OF FEDERAL DATA.

AMERICAN CONSTRUCTION WORKERS TODAY MAKE FIVE DOLLARS AN HOUR LESS THAN THEY DID IN THE EARLY 1970s AFTER ADJUSTING FOR INFLATION.

IN 1972, CONSTRUCTION PAID TODAY'S EQUIVALENT OF $32 AN HOUR, ALMOST $10 MORE THAN THE AVERAGE PRIVATE SECTOR JOB.

BUT REAL WAGES STEADILY DECLINED FOR DECADES, ERASING MUCH OF THAT GAP.

>> SO A LOT OF TIMES WHAT WILL HAPPEN IS NATIVEBORN WORKERS WILL GO FROM CONSTRUCTION, AND WILL DO b ÃÃBECAUSE THE WAGES ARE SO LOW IN CONSTRUCTION BECAUSE OF THE NEW IMMIGRANTS, THEY'LL GO INTO OTHER INDUSTRIES.

>> TRUCK DRIVING, TAXI DRIVING, WHATEVER, WHATEVER OTHER INDUSTRIES.

>> YEAH.

CONSTRUCTION, DRIVING, ESPECIALLY UBER, HOUSEKEEPING, ABOUT HALF OF THE PEOPLE WHO WORK IN HOUSEKEEPING ARE NOT NATIVEBORN.

SO TYPICALLY INDUSTRIES THAT ENGLISH IS NOT A REQUIREMENT TO BE SUCCESSFUL.

>> Bonnie: AND MANY SAY THIS IS HAPPENING ALL OVER THE COUNTRY, NOT JUST ON THE WEST COAST.

>> I HAVE FIVE STATES AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA WHICH I CARRY SOME OF WHICH ARE COVERED.

AND WE HAVE SEEN A GREAT DEAL OF UNDOCUMENTED WORKERS SLOWLY REPLACING THOSE THAT ARE HERE LEGALLY.

AND WE AS A UNION, WE ARE NOT ANTI-IMMIGRANT IN THE SLIGHTEST BIT.

ACTUALLY, WE OFFER COMPREHENSIVE IMMIGRATION REFORM.

BUT WE HAVE SEEN A HUGE EROSION OF MIDDLE-CLASS JOBS THAT WERE CONSTRUCTION JOBS BEING REPLACED BY THOSE COME HERE WORKING FOR LESS.

>> Bonnie: SOME SAY THE SAME KIND OF THING IS TAKING PLACE IN THE HEALTHCARE FIELD RIGHT NOW, THAT HEALTHCARE AIDS, EVEN NURSING JOBS, ARE GOING TO PEOPLE FROM OTHER COUNTRIES BECAUSE THEY WILL WORK FOR LESS MONEY.

THE COUNTERVAILING VIEW IS THAT AMERICANS DON'T WANT THOSE JOBS, CREATING A SHORTAGE AT ALL ENDS OF THE HEALTHCARE FIELD.

>> IMMIGRANTS DON'T TEND TO TAKE JOBS AWAY FROM AMERICANS, THEY TEND TO FILL SECTORS THAT AMERICANS ARE NOT FILLING THEMSELVES.

SOMETIMES BECAUSE THE WAGES ARE TOO LOW, BUT ALSO BECAUSE SOMETIMES THAT'S NOT WHERE WE HAVE THE, THE DESIRE OR THE EXPERTISE.

>> SO, FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE HEALTHCARE SECTOR, THERE IS A BIG CHALLENGE WITH SHORTAGES OF NOT ONLY PHYSICIANS BUT ALSO HOME HEALTH AIDES IN AMERICA RIGHT NOW.

IMMIGRANTS ARE ABOUT TWICE AS LIKELY AS THE U.S.-BORN TO BE PHYSICIANS AND SURGEONS AS WELL AS NURSES AND HOME HEALTH AIDES.

AND MANY OF THOSE FOLKS ARE WORKING IN RURAL COUNTIES.

IN FACT, THERE ARE SOME PLACES WHERE THE FOREIGN-BORN DOCTOR MAY BE THE ONLY SPECIALISTS THAT SOMEONE CAN FIND HE WAS IN A CERTAIN COUNTY.

>> Bonnie: WHEREVER YOU STAND ON THE CAUSE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT, WHETHER WERE TALKING ABOUT WORKERS LOSING HEALTHCARE OR CONSTRUCTION JOBS, ONE UNDENIABLE TRUTH IS PEOPLE ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO BE ON THE SIDELINES IF THEY LACK A HIGH SCHOOL DEGREE OR BARELY HALF ONE.

>>> IN LATE DECEMBER 2019, THE NEW YORK TIMES RAN AN EXPANSIVE COVERAGE OF THE IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION RAIDS ON CHICKEN PROCESSING PLANTS IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LAST HOT SUMMER.

THIS IS PART OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S EFFORT TO REMOVE PEOPLE IN THE U.S.

ILLEGALLY FROM EMPLOYMENT HERE.

HE REPORTED MORE THAN 680 HISPANICS WERE FORCED OUT AND REPLACED ALMOST IMMEDIATELY BY ALL AND/OR UNDEREMPLOYED AFRICAN-AMERICANS.

WHY?HE WAGES, AT MORE THAN $11 PER HOUR, OR BETTER THAN MOST OTHER LOW SKILLED OCCUPATIONS IN THIS RURAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.

BUT THE WRITER QUESTIONED HOW MANY WOULD STAY IN THESE JOBS BECAUSE THEY ARE REPETITIVE AND DIFFICULT.

>> THE UNITED STATES CURRENTLY HAS AN ENORMOUS SURPLUS OF LESS EDUCATED PEOPLE NOT WORKING WHO ARE OF WORKING AGE AND NOT DISABLED WHO COULD CONCEIVABLY BE BE TRAINED TO DO THIS WORK.

SO IF YOU NEEDED, SAY, A MILLION PEOPLE IN THAT FIELD, MAYBE EVEN 2 MILLION OVER THE NEXT FEW DECADES, RIGHT NOW WE HAVE SOME ARE VERY ROUGHLY, LIKE 40 MILLION WORKING AGE PEOPLE, WHO DON'T HAVE A COLLEGE EDUCATION NETWORKING WHO ARE OF WORKING AGE.

IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SAY, WELL, WHY DON'T WE USE THE POOL OF PEOPLE?

WE ALL RECOGNIZE THAT THIS LARGE FULL OF PEOPLE WHO ARE IDLE OF WORKING AGE WHO ARE NOT WORKING CREATES A SERIES OF SOCIAL PROBLEMS FROM CRIME TO OPIOID ADDICTION.

PULLING SOME PERCENTAGE OF THEM BACK INTO THE LABOR FORCE WOULD BE VERY HELPFUL IN DEALING WITH CERTAIN SOCIAL PROBLEMS.

AND IF WE REALLY ARE SHORT OF HOME HEALTHCARE AIDS OR MEDICAL TECHNICIANS THAT WOULD SEEM TO BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN BRINGING IN FOREIGN WORKERS.

>> Bonnie: CERTAINLY, THE GREAT RECESSION AND THE COVID-19 VIRUS THREW A LOT OF LONGTIME WORKERS OUT OF THE WORKFORCE.

>> THEY COULDN'T GET A JOB.

YOU KNOW, THEY LOST THEIR JOB.

AND THEY COULD NOT GET ANOTHER ONE.

THAT'S A PHENOMENON KNOWN AS STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT.O THEY COULD NOT REALLY GET BACK INTO THE LABOR FORCE.

AND SO, THEY DROPPED OUT.

AND THEN AT THE SAME TIME DURING THE RECESSION, WE HAD THE YOUNGER GENERATION GOING INTO SCHOOL, SO THEY WERE NOT IN THE LABOR FORCE.

SO THE RECESSION HAD A HUGE IMPACT ON STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT AND ON THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE.

>> Bonnie: AND THAT BRINGS US TO OUR LAST QUESTION: WHAT IS THE IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION ON LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT?

IMMIGRATION ADVOCATES SAY NONE OR VERY LITTLE, BECAUSE ALL IMMIGRANTS ARE DOING IS FILLING JOBS AMERICANS DON'T WANT.

BUT ADVOCATES FOR THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED SAY MASS IMMIGRATION IS PART OF WHAT IS CAUSING THE PROBLEM.

AND IT IS WEAKENING BARGAINING POWER FOR LOW INCOME WORKERS, EVEN CAUSING SOME OF THE OFTEN TALKED ABOUT INCREASING INCOME INEQUALITY IN AMERICA.

>> THIS IS THE POINT WHERE BUSINESSES HAVE TO WORK MUCH HARDER TO ENTICE, TO RECRUIT FROM PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN DISCOURAGED AND PEOPLE WHO HAVE JUST GIVEN UP.

I MEAN, THERE ARE A LOT OF WORKING AGE PEOPLE WHO ARE POOR WHO NEED WORK.

THEY HAVEN'T LOOKED FOR A JOB AND MAYBE YEARS BECAUSE THEY ARE SO DISCOURAGED.

THIS IS THE POINT IN THE ECONOMY WHEN THEY HAVE A CHANCE, WHEN THEY ARE NEEDED, OR BUSINESSES HAVE TO GO TO WORK TO FIND THEM.

BUT CERTAINLY PEOPLE FROM 55 TO 64 TO FACE A LOT OF AGES ON.

THERE'S A POINT WHERE BUSINESSES COULD EMPLOY THESE PEOPLE, PERHAPS FOR LESS THAN FULL TIME, MANY OF THESE PEOPLE WOULD TAKE JOBS IF THEY CAN WORK 30 HOURS A WEEK.

MAYBE THEY ARE NOT UP TO 40 HOURS A WEEK ANYMORE.

THIS IS WHERE YOU HAVE TO GET CREATIVE.

IF YOU ARE AN EMPLOYER, GET CREATIVE.

YOU HAVE SEEN A LOT OF THESE FAST FOOD PLACES AROUND THE COUNTRY WHO HAVE DISCOVERED THAT, ACTUALLY, YOU CAN HIRE A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THEIR 70s IF YOU GIVE THEM ONE DAY A WEEK OR TWO HOURS A DAY.HEY LIKE IT.

>> AS THE IMMIGRATION LEVELS INCREASED, YOU SAW INEQUALITY BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER TIME.

AND YOU SAW THE WAGE RATES BEGIN TO STAGNATE.

THERE WAS ENORMOUS AND ROBUST WAGE GROWTH AFTER FROM 1946 AFTER THE 1970S.

WAGES HAVE BEEN STAGNANT.

>> Bonnie: LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES AGREE THAT MASS IMMIGRATION OF LESS EDUCATED WORKERS DOES CONTRIBUTE TO WAGE INEQUALITY.

DIFFERENCES REMAIN OVER FOR HOW LONG A PERIOD OF TIME THAT IS THE CASE.

>> AND WE HAVE SEEN REAL ABUSES AS WELL OF WORKERS THAT ARE UNDOCUMENTED THAT HAVE COME TO US LIKE, BECAUSE THEY ARE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF AND THEY WANT US TO REPRESENT THEM EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE NOT MEMBERS, AND WE WILL GO OUT AND MEET WITH THEM.

AND WE JUST GOT A HUGE BACK PAY FOR A BUNCH OF WORKERS THAT WERE UNDOCUMENTED, BECAUSE THE CONTRACTOR WAS HAD TWO SETS OF BOOKS.

HE HAD A SET OF BOOKS FOR HIS LEGAL PEOPLE, HE HAD A SET OF BOOKS FOR HIS ILLEGAL PEOPLE.

AND HE WAS PAYING WHEN THOSE WORKERS HAD TO WORK OVERTIME.

HE WAS NOT PAYING ANY TAXES ON THOSE WORKERS.

AND HE WAS CHEATING THEM.

HE WASN'T PAYING THEM TIME AND A HALF ON SATURDAYS AND SUNDAYS FOR ALL THEIR TIME THAT THEY WERE WORKING AND WHICH CAUSED THEM TO LOSE OUT ON THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS.

SO WE TOOK THIS CASE FOR THEM AND WE TOOK IT TO THE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR IN VIRGINIA, AND WE WON.

IN THE WORKERS GOT A HUGE PACK BY AWARD, BUT THEY WON, BUT THEY LOST, BECAUSE THE THEY GET THIS HUGE BACKPAY AWARD, THE EMPLOYER HAD TO PAY BACK SOME FINES AND STUFF LIKE THAT, SMALL FINES, BUT THEY ALL GOT FIRED.

AND THAT'S NOT WHAT WE'RE LOOKING FOR EITHER.

WE ARE LOOKING TO BRING EVERYBODY UP, NOT BRING ANYBODY DOWN.

>> SO THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT BECAUSE IT ALLOWS HIGH SUSTAINING LEVELS OF IMMIGRATION, WE HAVE LOST A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO ELIMINATE INCOME INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES.

>> Bonnie: MEANWHILE, DAVIS HAS BEEN FREELANCING AND TEACHING IT TO HIGH SCHOOL IS FOR MANY YEARS.

HE HAS PLENTY OF TIME BEFORE HE REACHES RETIREMENT AGE, BUT HE'S STILL NOT SURE HOW HE PLANS TO SPEND THAT TIME.

>> Ellwood Davis: IT WAS WIDE OPEN SINCE 1993, AND I HAD A GREAT CAREER.

BUT RIGHT NOW, I REALLY DON'T KNOW WHAT TO TELL YOUNG PEOPLE OR EVEN MYSELF RIGHT NOW.

>> Bonnie: OF COURSE, BOTH LONG AND SHORT-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT ARE RISING CONSIDERABLY DUE TO THE MASSIVE BLOW TO THE U.S. ECONOMY DEALT BY THE COVID-19 VIRUS.

IT WILL BE MONTHS BEFORE WE KNOW THE COMPLETE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT ORDERS TO SHELTER IN PLACE, TO SHUT DOWN RESTAURANTS, ALL NONESSENTIAL STORIES, TO LIMIT AIR TRAVEL AND HOTEL USAGE.

THAT, TO PREVENT THE VIRUS FROM SPREADING.

BUSINESSES HAVE CLOSED, SOME FOREVER.

AND IT COULD EASILY BE YEARS BEFORE THE ECONOMY IS BACK TO WHERE IT WAS IN LATE 2019.

THANKS FOR WATCHING THIS "TO THE CONTRARY" SPECIAL REPORT ON IMMIGRATIONS IMPACT ON THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED.

PLEASE VISIT OUR PBS WEBSITE, PBS.org/TOTHECONTRARY.

WHETHER YOU AGREE OR THINK TO THE CONTRARY, SEE YOU NEXT WEEK.

FOR A TRANSCRIPT OR SEE AN ONLINE EPISODE OF "TO THE CONTRARY," PLEASE VISIT OUR PBS WEBSITE AT PBS.ORG/TOTHECONTRARY.