♪♪♪ male announcer: Funding for the Hinckley Report is made possible in part by the Cleone Peterson Eccles Endowment Fund.

Jason Perry: Tonight on "The Hinckley Report," from approval ratings to the next presidential election, a new poll takes Utahns' temperature on heated issues.

State leaders offer a glimpse into their legislative priorities for the 2022 session.

And with a shrinking Great Salt Lake as the backdrop, Governor Cox releases his budget proposals, including big dollars for education and preserving Utah's most famous landmark.

♪♪♪ CC BY ABERDEEN CAPTIONING 1-800-688-6621 WWW.ABERCAP.COM Jason Perry: Good evening and welcome to "The Hinckley Report."

I'm Jason Perry, Director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics.

Covering the week, we have Demon Cann, political science professor at Utah State University and outgoing mayor of North Logan.

Rosie Nguyen, a broadcast journalist.

And Frank Pignanelli, political commentator and lobbyists with Foxley and Pignanelli.

Thank you so much for being with us tonight.

I want to jump right into some very fascinating polls.

I'll tell ya what politicians love to see is do people love them?

Or in the alternative, how much did they not like them.

So it's something we always try to monitor, what are their favorables, what are their unfavorables?

And we have some great new polling results Hinckley Institute of Politics did with the Deseret News, and I want to jump into a couple of those really quickly, and let's start with you, Frank.

The first one is on our governor, Governor Cox, we're ending the first year in office for him.

I want to see how his approvals are doing, and of Utahns, he has 60% approval, 24% disapproval, 16% don't know, give us your read of that particular number at this period of time.

Frank Pignanelli: Well, what it shows us that people like his demeanor.

I think what they see back in Washington, and they see a very solid governor.

He's nice to everybody.

What was interesting, too, is the Democrats are split on him also, so he has pretty much across the board support other than perhaps people and the right and left on the extremes of that, so what it demonstrates his ability to connect is really carrying him far, and it will be interesting to see if that's able to accomplish the programs he wants in the next legislative session.

Jason Perry: David, go back to kinda your research and your following of governors over the past few years.

Is this sort of a steady state?

This is kind of where a Republican governor in Utah kinda just finds the sweet spot, or what do you see kinda coming for this next couple of months to this next year?

'Cause there are big issues coming forward.

Damon Cann: Absolutely, it's definitely as Frank was saying, great to go into this upcoming legislative session for the governor with such strong approval ratings.

If you compare with governors around the country, you'd find that Governor Cox is actually faring very well and one of the more popular governors around the United States today, which is a great footing for him.

Of course.

Utah, we tend to love our governors, and I think the most impressive part of this for Governor Cox is showing strong ratings both among Republicans and Democrats alike.

Jason Perry: Mm-hmm, want to compare and contrast this a little bit to another question we asked, which was how Utahns feel about President Biden.

Rosie, I want to talk about this question with you, because I know you're talking to lots of Utahns all around the state, and let me give you this number and compare this to what you are hearing from people as well.

It's a pretty low number, 32% of Utahns approve of the job President Biden is doing, 63% disapprove, break that down a little bit as to what's happening that's at the heart of these disapproval numbers, which are just so high.

Rosie Nguyen: I think there's a couple points there, Jason.

Number one, we know that Biden first of all did not win in Utah, second of all, just look at the past year.

All of the issues that we've had come at the forefront were so polarizing, covid-19, right?

Especially the vaccine mandate, right now we're talking about the federal mandate that just came down.

We had civil unrest, right?

We talked about equity and police brutality, that was a big contention as well.

Even abortion's kind of come back to the forefront.

These are issues that are very polarized.

So sometimes the Utahns that I have talked to, they wonder is it possible for a president in this seat, whether it's Biden, whether it would've been President Trump again to get high approval ratings with such a tumultuous year in politics.

Jason Perry: This is interesting, Frank, on the Democratic side, because it's a low number but this is even low for Utah standards for a Democrat.

Frank Pignanelli: Well, it's low, but what's interesting, it does match about what statewide candidates Democratic candidates get, around 30%, 32%.

So he's clearly, he's got his based in Utah supporting him, that's about it.

But part of it is the messaging that's coming out, whether it be--when we talk about the big bills that pass in Congress not pass in Congress, we don't define them with what they accomplish, we define it by the amount of money.

There's the trillion dollar bill, that is a $5 billion dollar bill, and that really aggravates Utahns, and of course, the messaging around Afghanistan and some of the other things it's should be not surprised that a state that's red would have objections to way President Biden who's one of the nicest guys in the world, but his messaging is not really complete for would Utahns wanna hear.

Jason Perry: Damon, compare this with what's happening nationally for the president, because I'm curious what you see coming in these--this next election cycle and even four years when the president is carrying a low approval number in Utah, but also a big disapproval number nationwide, that's 42.8% nationwide.

Frank Pignanelli: Yeah, I think the simplest answer to why Biden's numbers as low--are as low as they are in Utah is because they're low nationally, and across the country citizens are not reacting in the most favorable ways to President Biden, and that certainly has implications for his long-term hopes and ambitions.

You know, it's interesting, there's a lot of talk about 2024, a couple weeks ago President Biden announced that he did intend to run in 2024, and yet nationally there's still a lot of conversations going on about whether people would rather see Kamala Harris nominated, or Pete Buttigieg or whoever else, and the president has to be sitting there at some point saying what am I, chopped liver?

I told you I'm running, why are we still talking about others that might jump in in 2024?

That's not a good sign for where President Biden's at nationally as well as his struggles here in Utah.

Jason Perry: Well, we start talking about who might be coming, we've got to talk about what some Republicans are wondering about is whether or not we'll see Donald Trump back on the ballot for the Republicans.

And so of course, we asked this question in our poll.

Frank, I wanna get your take on this, too, very interesting for Utah.

It's a split on the favorability of president, former President Trump, 48% of Utahns have a favorable impression, 48% of them have an unfavorable impression.

Frank Pignanelli: And it really should not be any surprise, because as you know, when he first round 2016, he won the state but barely.

We had of course, Evan McMullin, who got over 20%, and Trump's personality, the way--his demeanor, people may like his policies, but it's his personality that aggravates a lot of the Utahns.

But--and I know you may get to this--but most of those Republicans are gonna vote for him, and part of it is this, in my opinion, is that you have this antithesis towards Biden and the Democrats, and the only person's that really articulating standing up to Biden and standing up to Congress is Trump.

So I think you have Utahns say we may not like his personality, but he's the person, he's the anti-Biden, because you have a group of Republican senators and governors thinking about running, but they're not the face of the opposition to Biden, they're not the face of the opposition to the $5 trillion package or whatever it is, it is Donald Trump.

So although Utahns may have a hard time with his personality, they view him as somebody that can correct the mischief of the Democrats.

Jason Perry: Rosie, as you're interviewing people in your reporter hat, are they making that distinction?

Is it I'm supporting now--or at least 48% of them are saying they're supporting now because they like those policies, they're able to maybe not not get into these items that Frank was just talking about, that Biden's a personality, for example.

Rosie Nguyen: You know what's interesting, Jason, is some of the Utahns that I've talked to, they're not necessarily voting for someone whose policies they agree with, but they're voting against the person whose policies that don't agree with.

So that was one interesting trend that I'm noticing why some people will still continue to vote for Trump despite the fact that they may not like his presentation, what he said, but because they just don't want to vote for the other, right, big choice option, which is Biden.

So I thought that was one thing that I took away when I was talking to a few Utahns about, like, you know, are you voting for Trump?

If so, why?

Even though you felt this certain way about him.

Jason Perry: Damon, talk about that for just a minute, because you know, Frank just brought up Evan McMullin, for example, and that 2016 election, he got 21% of the vote.

Are we going to see a repeat of something like that?

Not him necessarily, but this idea that Rosie was just really going at that sometimes it's a vote against as opposed to a vote for.

If President Trump, former President Trump is on the ballot again, are we gonna see that again?

Just kind of give us a historical perspective that and what you see might be coming.

Damon Cann: Absolutely, Rosie put it really well, fear and anger are powerful motivators for getting people to vote and to getting people to vote in a particular way, and so I do think, you know, we've seen historic highs of voting against a candidate rather than voting or a candidate when we've asked questions about that in surveys in 2016 and to some extent in 2020, and so I think that speaks to the importance of the parties trying harder to find candidates who can articulate positive visions for what they want to do rather than just saying, well, hey, I'm not as bad as some other particular candidate who's out there.

And I think that a party that figures out how to do that better--and in a lot of ways, that's I think what Evan McMullin was trying to do during the 2016 election.

I think parties that tend to do that better will do a better job in the presidential elections.

Jason Perry: Rosie, I want to talk about the next question we asked which is connected to the favorabilities of former President Trump.

We decide to ask if President Trump was the nominee, would you vote for him?

And it was just very interesting numbers, and I want to give them to you so you can break them down for a little bit, 24% of Utahns said they would definitely vote for the president if it was--President Trump was on the ballot, 26% said they would consider voting for him.

That's 50% of you Utahns said if he was on the ballot, they would either consider or would vote for him.

Rosie Nguyen: That is very interesting so, split again, right?

So we've got 46% that said I would not vote for him, nearly 50% that said that they would definitely or consider voting for him.

I think it goes back to how polarized not just to issues that we've been assessing in our state, in our country, is but the fact is people--and the thing is with with Utah is I'm surprised that a lot of Republicans and Democrats, they actually lean pretty moderate, and it comes down to these issues as well.

And I think that at the end of the day, too, a lot of Utahns do vote along party lines.

We like to keep that Republican majority in our state even if that means that some of them may not fully support President Trump, but if he is the Republican nominee, they're gonna stick to party lines and still vote for him.

Jason Perry: I want to get to this divisiveness issue and how polarized we may be.

Frank, of course, we have to ask you about that.

If you break down those numbers we just gave, it's interesting, 73%--you take us behind the numbers--among Republicans, 73% of Republicans said they would consider or would vote for President Trump if he was on the ballot.

Talk about this this polarization, and I think you have a call coming this weekend, in fact, that may talk about this issue a little bit.

And I want to get the context for this, too, are we that different here in the state of Utah?

Or how different are we like Democrats or Republicans from maybe the rest of the country.

Frank Pignanelli: Well, it's interesting, and as you know, when I was growing up the statement was a Utah Democrat would be Republican anywhere else, but that's proven to be a canard, because the Pew Foundation did a national study and said that Republicans have shifted a little bit to the right, but the Democrats have really shift to the left, and the Utah Foundation, a very renowned research institute said the same thing, Utah Democrats have really shifted to the left, and so I think you're seeing that appear more and more both in the polling and the election results.

And so in Utah, if you're a Democrat, if you're running for a congressional office or a statewide office, you have to win your base, but you need a chunk of the undecided or the unaffiliated, and you need slice the Republicans, but if you're answerable to the far left, putting that formula together becomes increasingly difficult, which is why as I say Jim Matheson was the most successful Democrat in the century 'cause he could do that, but it's become increasingly harder as a party shifts left, so that leads to polarization or just an inability to appeal across the political spectrum.

Jason Perry: David, do you have a comment?

Damon Cann: Just thinking, you know, I think back to when--to illustrate Frank's point, when Claudia Wright, a librarian with no previous elective experience challenged Jim Matheson and forced him out of convention into a primary which was reasonably contested for an incumbent successful politician like Jim Matheson to face that kind of a challenge from that kind of a challenger, I think really illustrates the direction that the Democratic Party in Utah has gone and the challenges they face between satisfying the base versus putting up candidates who can appeal to and pick off a slice of Republicans, enabling them to win an election.

Jason Perry: As we start talking about these next elections, I think we have to start talking about budget a little bit, too, because one of the ways you start work on your elections by establishing some priorities up front, what you're going to push for and try to get people to support you that way.

And Rosie, I wanna talk about this with you for just a moment, too, particularly.

The numbers for the state of Utah look amazing, and we saw this from the legislature this week about $930 million additional dollars on top of $1.2 billion the state has in reserve.

That's a pretty good amount of money.

I know when Frank was in office, he would've loved to have all of that, which we'll talk about, but the governor released his budget this week and sometimes you see what people care about most by what they prioritize with the budget.

Give us a couple key takeaways from this $25 billion budget the governor proposed.

Rosie Nguyen: So we're seeing a record--well at least Cox is calling it a record investment-- nearly $1 billion in just spending on education, and I think that that's a big win, especially given all that our educators, our school administrators have been through during the past year with the covid-19 pandemic, right?

One thing that stood out to me, $160 million grocery tax credit for low and moderate income families, affordable housing, which has been a big topic in Utah, because we're seeing all of these buildings go up.

You know, my neighborhood on the west side of Salt Lake City, it's being gentrified, grocery stores, banks where I used to go are now all apartment buildings.

And shelter issues in Utah have been a big topic of contention.

How are we gonna help these individuals get into affordable housing?

So that's $228 million, and then as well $105 million for pay increases for state employees.

Jason Perry: A lot of spending, a lot of priorities kind of at the forefront here, Frank.

Let's hit a couple of these I think are interesting.

This this grocery tax credit is interesting, 'cause you've been through this a couple of times.

We see this a lot over the years.

So it was a do we get rid of the sales tax on food?

Or this is different-- Frank Pignanelli: Well, I think what you're seeing is the ghost of the initiative of a couple of years ago.

That was truly a grassroots initiative organically, too, because when there was proposal to restore the sales-- completely restore the sales tax on food, you had really people across the state, and they got enough signatures, so all of a sudden now--and to their credit, the responding of the governor, you have Republican legislators and Democratic legislators, they all have some proposal to somehow either take off the rest of the sales tax or food or somehow make it easier for people to pay that or getting a credit for it.

But that tells you the power of that initiative, that they're thinking about that.

Yeah, and David, talk about that for a moment, 'cause it's very interesting.

It's maybe the same impact, the same effect, but a very different strategy.

Does this one get to the people, they say okay, this is one we're with or at least the legislature?

Damon Cann: I think there's no way around the legislature trying to take some sort of action on this issue, because the people spoke, and the initiative concept was very popular.

And look, we know the signatures are there to avoid increasing sales tax on food, so now we have a chance for our electeds to come in and say, you know, what should we do if anything to adjust and maybe decrease or ease the burden of those taxes a little bit?

But one piece that I haven't seen discussed a lot in here as we look at tradeoffs between, you know, having a broad base and more people are taxed, more things, groceries are a great way to have a broad base, but as yet I haven't seen a piece surface in the discussion where local communities, 1% of the sales tax on food is a local option sales tax, and if that got lifted, we would in essence be defunding our cities and towns across state of Utah.

That would cause some significant issues.

But I think there's gonna be a lot of robust discussion about whether it's credits or reductions or elimination of various portions of that tax in the upcoming session.

Jason Perry: Mm-hmm, really quickly on the governor's budget, and then I want to get to what the legislature is going to do with that budget, but Frank, go back to your days as a legislator, this a 5% WPU increase, that's significant.

Frank Pignanelli: That's pretty big, in fact, the whole budget-- which to me it's interesting-- Now, we have to keep in mind, this is Spencer Cox's first budget.

The other one was a holdover from the Herberts.

Everything else he does for the next 4, 8, or 12, how many years will be judged by what he did this first year.

So he has to go big, and so he's going big both with education, with the funding and things like that, so we have some dynamics there.

Number one, he wants to make sure that people understand what he's doing.

Secondly, the choice of the Great Salt Lake, every Utahn, whether they are in elementary school or they're 90 years old knows about the Great Salt Lake, they know it's in trouble, so I think he's setting himself up saying I think I can help solve this.

Well, there's also, if you look at his programs--and a lot of water programs, things like that--there's a little bit of fear.

We don't like talking about in Utah we're worried, worried about the environment, we're worried about the water, and he's plugging into that, so that's-- So he wanted to do a big-project budget, but he also wanted to do--make sure that the scenery around he was saying I understand, and I'm here to help.

Jason Perry: So interesting, I want to get that for a second, too, with Rosie.

For our viewers, that WPU is the weighted pupil unit, which is how they're going to fund education.

So interesting, and it's interesting he was talking about that while he's sitting on the banks of the Great Salt Lake, Rosie.

I mean, he had the visual there for sure, but this is like talking about the environment, water quality, and things like that.

That is not something you always saw from Republican governors at least--Rosie Nguyen: But you have to think our situation right now so dire, I mean drought, the Great Salt Lake, just you going there and seeing like how just depressing it is, it's something that I think accelerated as far as the urgency has happened in just the past year.

I mean, our first snowstorm didn't even come until today, right?

So, yes, so environment, water, conservancy, drought, I felt like has out of nowhere like overnight has become like one of the core issues in our state.

Jason Perry: Damon, so we talk a lot about the governor's budget, which we have here as well.

He's required to produce one by the constitution.

The response from our legislature, 'cause ultimately it's their call.

Damon Cann: Yes, I know one of the things I think covenant Cox has worked very hard on and effectively on is building a strong relationship and partnership with the legislature.

So the typical tradition is that the governor proposes a budget and maybe even has a press conference of the sorts--the location was unique--but of the sort that Governor Cox did and then legislative leaders promptly set it on the shelf and go about doing whatever it is that they actually want to do.

But I think Governor Cox is flexing a little bit and showing some strong leadership here, and I think on questions like water and education, it will be very difficult for the legislature to not pick up some of those proposals and include discussions that go forth.

So I think this budget gets more serious consideration from the legislature than the typical governor's proposal.

Frank Pignanelli: If I could throw something, it's that 15 years ago the clean air caucus was represented here by a couple of Democrats.

It is all Republicans and Democrats now, and you hear a lot about clean air from Republicans, a lot about the concern about the water.

One of the things you're gonna see in this next legislative session, you've got some Republican lawmakers that some creative ideas on water, whether it's Utah County, Great Salt Lake.

In fact, my understanding is the Speaker's gonna have something about the Great Salt Lake in the early part of next year.

So you're gonna see, yes, Governor Cox, thank you very much, but also you're gonna see we've got our own solutions that we've been working on, too, we just don't get as much media about it.

So it's gonna be an interesting dynamic that plays out.

As a matter of fact, right after the governor's budget address, the president of the Senate, Stuart Adams sent out a notice saying thank you very much, we're also working on things.

So I think that the end is gonna be great, but you're gonna have different dynamics happening because they're gonna have different ways to approach the solution to these problems.

Jason Perry: Absolutely right.

I want to talk about another dynamic that's so interesting that came out of the legislature meeting this week, Damon, we've talked a lot about election security, potential election fraud.

I find this to be so interesting what our legislature did.

They have the power to authorize an audit, you do a legislative audit, they prioritize certain things that they will take a hard look at.

And this week our legislature approved an audit, what they called election integrity.

Talk about what that is a little bit and a little bit about the person pushing this, majority leader, Mike Schulz, who really said we're going to do this.

This is not about Donald Trump, it's not about that last election.

In fact, that's what he said, Donald Trump won, this not about 2020, this is about process and systems.

That's what our legislature said this week as they get ready to launch this audit.

Damon Cann: I think the the claim that it's not about 2020 or those kinds of things is a little bit difficult for me to accept simply because prior to the 2020 election we weren't seeing people raising fundamental claims about the integrity of our election processes.

If anything, Utah has received accolades nationally for being a leader in the body of election administration, and so I'm not sure I can accept on face the claim that this has nothing to do with 2020.

Now, that said, there's always places where we can find ways to improve and do better and see things through to better processes, and that's what-- exactly what Utah's election administration group, beginning with the lieutenant governor and on down through our current as well as former lieutenant governors have done.

But the notion that somehow there's fundamental underlying errors or gaps in the process just isn't supported by what we already know about our election processes in Utah.

Jason Perry: Well, Frank, I know who agrees with Demon, it's the lieutenant governor, Deidre Henderson, and I want to read what she said, 'cause it was a quick response that she gave to this audit being called.

She said, "I am very concerned about any lawmaker who signs on to these notions that where there is no evidence, and these are baseless allegations and they're deliberately making them in order to undermine public trust and faith in the foundation of our democratic republic.

They're doing it not to solve problems but to score political points.

To me, that's reprehensible and that is what I'm concerned about."

Frank Pignanelli: Strong statement, needed to be said, but the purpose of the show is not just to complain, it's to explain, and this was my thought process on this, these people who are claiming that there was fraud in the election or fraud or there's problems in Utah elections, they're out there, they're constantly out there, they're talking to these lawmakers.

Most Utahns accept that, they know that we have--we're the gold standard of elections, but they're not talking to their lawmakers for the most part.

These are activists.

These lawmakers, they've got an election coming up, they're going to deal with these people and the delegates in the conventions, they're gonna deal with them in the primary, so it's like easy to do an audit because it's like we'll get the audit, we know if the audit's gonna come back might be a couple tweaks, so you have that dynamic up, they're responding to this and pressure that they're getting from these-- Look, they're going door to door for heaven's sake in some places, so they have to respond to that.

The lieutenant governor's right, but you have lawmakers doing it.

The other thing is--and I'm just gonna say this, okay?

Americans and Utahns, we love our conspiracy theories.

Right now it's voter fraud, you know, 52% of Democrats thought that Clinton's election was stolen by Donald Trump.

You go back to--when I was in the legislature, we spent three days debating whether lunch ladies were part of the grandest conspiracy, the New World Order.

A hundred years ago it was the Masonic lodges are taking over, this is just another dynamic of that, and we'll get through that because the audit will come back and say everything's fine.

But that's just what it is, and so to me, what the legislature is doing, they're responding to pressure they're getting from their neighborhoods.

Jason Perry: All right, that's gonna have to be the last comment.

That's some serious stuff today we talked about.

Thank you for your great insight.

And thank you for watching "The Hinckley Report."

This show is also available as a podcast on PBSUtah.org/HinckleyReport or wherever you get your podcasts.

Thank you for being with us, we'll see you next week.

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