Time now for End a week wrap up of the major political developments in Kentucky, especially when it comes to the governor's race.

And we have with us two former state officials, elected officials in Kentucky, Trey Grayson, who you see often former Kentucky secretary of state.

And a new face, one not so new to Kentucky.

Take the newer face to Kentucky edition.

Jonathan Miller, who's a former state treasurer and also former secretary of the Finance Administration cabinet.

So it was good to see both of you can see it.

A lot to talk about in just a few 7 minutes or so.

So let's get it in your thoughts about where the race is right now, how the candidates are trying to get some daylight between them on issues and their main messages.

Well, we're only a few weeks out and we had a couple of interesting data points that emerged for us to pontificate on.

One was the campaign finance reports and the other was this survey that was the first public survey in several months and in some respects kind of confirmed that the money chase and the survey both kind of confirmed that Cameron is probably still in the lead on the Republican side.

And but craft appears to have gained ground because is right there.

You know, if you think we're coming on top on the derby and Quarrels is kind of, you know, rounding that turn and you could see him making a run.

There is a pathway for him.

And then a couple of the other candidates who we've seen, like Mike Harmon and Allen Keck, who've been in a lot of debates, were really far down in both money and in surveys.

And so it looks like it's those those are our big three.

Yeah.

And so what does Governor Andy Beshear take away right now?

And he got some good news as far as his popularity, not just as a Democratic governor, but overall, he's like the fifth most popular governor.

So that's good news, right?

Yeah, it was a good week for Governor Beshear.

63% favourability, you know, in a red state.

He's doing something right.

And and, you know, it's certainly far, far from a slam dunk in an election but it really puts him in a great place But additionally, watching these negative ads really start from from both sides is is to the advantage of the incumbent.

The more that that Cameron and craft blow each other up and who knows whether quarrels gets into this mix the weaker it makes them as a general election candidate.

But they're also going after the governor, right.

Or PACs are going after the governor already talking about his position on SB 150, the sweeping anti-trans measure and all of those kind of woke philosophies.

So, I mean, they're already going after him.

Sure.

I mean, some of this is that's one thing Republicans can agree upon.

And and at some point, you know, I think most people believe that that survey, because it's consistent.

We keep seeing him around 60%, 59, 60, 63.

So the governor is pretty popular.

And the hope is that in a reddish state, as John of the points out, Kentucky is pretty much a red state now that he can bring those numbers down when you actually engage in the campaign.

The risk also, as Jonathan points out, is that the primary is too divisive, that you need to when you're running against the popular incumbent, you need to unite as a party.

Whoever wins on the Republican ticket through a running mate selection, if it's if it's Ryan or Daniel who have not committed to that messaging and bringing people together to try to go against a pretty popular incumbent.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I don't you know, negative ads do work and I don't want to diminish that If you spend millions of dollars against Beshear, it's going to hurt him.

But I don't see that significant an impact.

It's been four years.

We all know Andy.

He's well known.

He's been out in the state in rural areas which are traditionally Republican these days and getting so much good attention for his work with all of these various tragedies.

And I call them the exodus, Governor, because he's going through the ten plagues that that Moses imposed.

And I think that that kind of the kind of personal attacks you're seeing on aren't going to have that much affect.

What his challenge is that he's got to do after his name and that we are such a tribal culture these days that there are just so many Kentuckians that are just not going to to pull a democratic lever.

They're going to pull the straight Republican ticket.

So that's what his biggest.

Yeah, he worries about that.

I like you, but, you know, I like him.

But he's a Democrat and I'm you know, and I'm now a Republican voter.

And this last survey didn't appear to ask any questions about head to head in the fall.

But the last public survey, the Mason-Dixon survey, showed a lot of a pathway how that could happen.

He had about a 60% approval rating, but he only got about 50 head to head against Daniel, and that was 50 to 40, right.

Cameron, so be sure was up ten, but already 10% of the people or 10% of those voters said they like him, but they weren't ready to commit to voting for him.

Yeah, so there's your pathway to victory is that I like him, but I'm not going to vote for him.

So in both the debates or the joint appearances that have been had so far with the major candidates and by the way, we should point out that where Carly Craft is Daniel Cameron is not interesting vice.

Yeah, yeah.

But we think that they'll be here on May 1st together.

So the strategy behind that and did anybody make a major gaffe or even an opening for an opponent to go after them?

Well, the strategy, if you're in the lead, most people if you're in the lead, you kind of believe that the only bad things can happen in a debate, because especially in a multi-candidate debate where you have multiple people probably trying to go after you.

So it does make sense that Cameron's not attending all of these debates and craft as a first time candidate.

She's still learning how to do all this.

She's probably she's gotten good at retail.

Clearly, but she hasn't still hasn't done a whole lot of these forms.

And so it makes sense that she might want to skip a few here or there and then culminating, I think, with you on the first.

We're all looking forward to seeing that with our all be together and the race will be about two weeks out.

So as far as the gaffes and the debates, you know, I don't know that you could say that maybe Cameron lost the KSR debate because he wasn't there.

The debates matter that much.

Generally, it's it's a negative thing.

If you've done something really stupid in debate hurt you, you don't really think, well, that guy won the election because of because of his or her debate performance.

But I think it in this kind of race where there's still a lot of undecided and still a lot of soft votes that I think it could be a turning point.

And on that last point, a good example is, is CEC, who polled really poorly, basically, you know, nonexistent.

And he even had a funny joke about it where he had the Dumb and Dumber.

So you're saying I got a chance.

The best tweet of the campaign?

Yeah, no doubt.

Kirk has impressed in debates and he has impressed in candidate forums.

People have liked him.

The problem is, is that not a lot of people watch the debates or go to Canada forums and or or those who do already have decided.

And so there just aren't a lot of pool that are out there.

And he doesn't have the resources to really, you know, educate voters about who he is and paid media just yet.

So so yeah, I think the two weeks out because early voting will start in about ten days after the after the Katy debate.

So that'll be a pivotal moment in the campaigns will try to peak at that point.

Yeah, well, thank you, gentlemen.

It's always good to get your insight.

Appreciate it.

We'll be talking soon.

Thanks.

Thanks for having this.