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♪ David: It is the beginning of the end.

Governor Murphy's penultimate state of the state.

It is "Reporters Roundtable."

I am David Cruz.

Happy new year.

Our first panel of 2025 includes Colleen O'Dea, Daniel Han and Brent Johnson.

You will be hearing from them, sharing their pearls of wisdom in a few minutes but let's begin today with a look ahead at Governor Murphy's annual state of the state address, scheduled for Tuesday, and see what the final year holds for him.

Peter Woolley is the director for the school of Public affairs at FDU.

Welcome to Roundtable.

Happy new year.

Peter: Thank you.

I am delighted to be here.

David: I want to talk about conversations with the gubernatorial candidate's in just a bit.

I want to talk -- I am sure he would say prematurely -- about Governor Phil Murphy's legacy.

It has been almost eight years and I feel 2/3 of that has been Covid.

Let's start with that because it is even still now in the conversation.

It feels like as we look back on it that it was mostly positive, except for the deaths at the nursing homes.

Is that how we see it right now?

Peter: I think that is generally correct.

There is an entire constituency of people who are still angry at the lockdowns and the insistence that everybody be vaccinated and I think that will linger for many years.

As far as his legacy goes, most people will say most of that episode was handled well.

When governors run for office to make a lot of promises about what they will do but the one thing they cannot do is predict what 8-ball will be thrown their way.

No one campaigned on how they would handle Covid because nobody saw it on the horizon.

You have to give people credit in office when they have to turn their administration to a single focus, which they never planned to have to begin with.

David: I guess at this point in his term, Chris Christie was at 17%, I think, and Murphy is still above 50%, so that is saying something.

As we look forward to this next year, what can we expect in the next state of the state address?

Peter: I think Phil Murphy will spend a lot of time not talking about the coming year.

He will talk about what has happened already in the last seven years.

He wants to cement his legacy or people's perspective of his legacy.

He will dwell a great deal on his accomplishments.

There is a long list of things he can choose from.

I think he is likely to emphasize the gateway tunnel, something that went off the rails under the Christie administration and was brought back under the Murphy administration.

This is a huge, huge economic development program for New York and New Jersey and will have an impact for decades to come.

David: Before we move onto to the next batch of candidates for governor, do you have a job recommendation?

What could Governor Murphy do after he leaves office?

Peter: I can tell you the DNC needs a lot of help, the national Democratic committee.

He has been involved with that and I am sure there is a place for him there.

If Kamala Harris had won the election there would be a place for him in the administration in one role for another but things are little more open for him to choose from, given Kamala Harris did not win and the Republicans have taken over all the branches of government, really.

We will see, also, that in two years, quite possibly, things will change for Donald Trump as they typically do in midterm elections.

There could still be an opening and the possibility for Phil Murphy and politics in the future.

David: I mentioned before you do these conversations with the gubernatorial candidates at the University.

You have Steve Sweeney coming up in February.

Peter: January 23 we will be interviewing Sean Spiller.

February 10 we will be interviewing the former Senate President, Steve Sweeney.

We are looking for a date for Bill Stadia, possibly the front running candidate for Republican nomination.

We have had most of the other candidates already.

One of the things I would observe about this group to New Jersey's credit is we have a very deep bench.

These are people who are smart, they are savvy in terms of their policy, they are energetic.

They have a strong constituency.

It is to New Jersey's credit that we have so many people who are talented that are looking to fill this office that Governor Murphy will have to vacate.

David: Let me bring Brent Johnson in who has a question.

Brent: If you look at this race, is it really as wide open?

You mentioned Spadea as an option for the Republicans.

Peter: I would say it is because of the math.

This is a multi-sited race.

We have not seen anything like this since 1997.

Because we do not have a party line, we do not know what the ballot will look like in many of the counties there is a certain element of luck here where people will end up on the ballot in June.

All of these people seem to have very good prospects for raising money.

Some campaign finance reports came out this week.

Everyone seems to be firing on all cylinders.

Nobody it seems will be underfunded.

And that kind of a race, a few points here, a few points there, a few agreements and back scratches will make a big difference.

We also have to realize that turned out in this kind of race typically is very small.

It will be a relatively small number of people, hard to predict who they will be exactly, will come out and make the determination who will be the Democratic and Republican nominee.

David: It really is an accomplished field.

You said you have had a few candidates.

You said Bill Spadea seemed to you like the front runner on the Republican side.

How about the six Democrats, all of them with their own constituencies and abilities to raise money.

Who is leading that pack?

Peter: If we have to pick a leader I think it would be -- Josh is not far behind.

It is hard to translate this general publicpo -- general public polling into turnout.

David: Who impressed you of the candidates you have had on?

Who impressed you the most?

Peter: They are all very impressive but if I had to pick one that I enjoyed I would have to say it is Ross.

A person I had not spoken with at length.

He is quite an insightful person and entertaining.

David: Not the kind of guy who ordinarily is in this kind of a game because he is not a back-slapping, wanting to be the most popular guy in the room.

It is interesting to see how he will translate that to voters.

Peter: Yeah.

He is also a mayor of the city people do not have a good view of.

Newark has made huge progress in the last few decades but there is still a lot of white suburbanites who are angry with Newark, going back in their own lifetime, and that is unfortunate.

I think he made the case that New Jersey and Newark are similar, that he is particularly qualified to run New Jersey because he has run Newark, which has so many problems that overlap with the state.

It is rare that mayors get to become governors.

It is a really big step he is trying to take.

David: Many have tried.

Peter Woolley is the founding director of the School of Public and Global Affairs at FDU.

Thank you.

Good to see you.

Peter: My pleasure.

David: Alright, panel.

Good to see you all.

Happy new year.

Colleen, what is there left to say?

I am sure the governor's office will tease a bunch of new initiatives on issues that probably poll pretty well for them but the assembly is up for election next year and nobody expects them to do any heavy lifting, legislatively, especially for a guide that is pretty much out the door.

Is that fair or unfair of me to say?

Colleen: I think the assembly will really be focused on trying desperately to find the money to fund this program.

The speaker and assembly members are all up for election this year.

They know in the primary they will be facing candidates who are running with Steve Fulop, the mayor of Jersey City, who has tried to have as large of a slate of assembly candidates as possible.

In part because of the question about what the status of the line would be and what the ballot would look like.

I think this will just be Murphy's victory lap.

I think there will be an awful lot of back-patting, dunks, Touchdown runs, however you want to call it, about the first seven years of his administration.

David: Brent, it will be Murphy's greatest hits again?

Brent: I have for there will be a lot of looking back but he has a number of new proposals.

Some things that people should want to pay attention to.

He even said on the radio the other day they will not put their head down, they will sprint through the final year.

We have to wait to see what he says in Tuesday's speech but I heard there is a mix of both.

David: Dan, what you expect to hear?

Are you hearing any new initiatives?

Daniel: what I would say is the state of the state address and state address are a mix of a look back and a look forward.

A look back at what has been accomplished and setting the agenda for your policy priorities.

This will be especially unique for Governor Murphy because it will be for his final year in office.

This speech will be the barometer of what does Murphy's final year in office look like?

Realizes he has nothing to lose and reaches for the stars?

Or does he -- I do not want to say acquiesce -- or does he just go with the flow?

I think this will be a good example of that.

The governor did tease a little bit of this on the radio.

He promised a new parole initiative.

He promised affordability, which has been perhaps the favorite word of state elected officials since the 2021 election, so we will see what that looks like.

David: Let's move on to congestion pricing which is probably of greater interest in North Jersey as being a genuine issue.

In terms of politics, people are calling on the governor to tell us what was in the deal that he turned down from New York.

Now you get nothing, I see Governor Hochul saying.

Did Murphy get his clock cleaned?

Brent: I think this is one of those issues that a big group of people care about and a lot of others do not pay attention to.

For the people who really care about it, I feel this was not the best moment for the Murphy administration, especially because they put out so much and made this a major issue.

On the radio the other day a caller said I love this congestion pricing because I am shaving 10 minutes off my time.

He kind of had to send this was not a really good thing.

I do not think this is an issue that will define his tenure but it was not a great chapter.

David: At least, Dan, the first week seemed to be OK.

There were not any traffic catastrophes and people, anecdotally at least, said they were getting in and out of the city fine.

.

My question is more along the line of what Brent was saying.

Murphy fumbled here, to use a sports analogy.

Daniel: I think this is one of the black eyes for the Murphy administration especially with how opposed they have been to the plan.

I am curious to see what comes next?

In 2021 the governor went as far as to threaten the nuclear option over congestion pricing, t -- to ve the minutes.

tO you word a lot of gubernatorial candidates propose a reverse congestion pricing scheme, were New Yorkers driving into New Jersey would face a toll.

I am curious to see what comes next.

How does New Jersey respond?

Do they try to leverage something were New Yorkers have to pay to go into the state?

Floating over all of this is what does the Trump Administration do?

President elect Donald Trump has been opposed to this although it is harder to stop a program once it has started.

David: Right.

A lot of other would-be governors and a lot of money being raised and matched.

Do these numbers really matter?

There is a lot of invisible money that no one has to say they donated.

Colleen, am I right?

Much of these donation numbers actually tell us?

Colleen: We definitely know it is expensive to run in New Jersey because we do not have our own market.

We have to advertise in the New York market and the Philadelphia market.

Things have been changing over the years as people watch regular TV and there are more ads online so I am not sure the money is as important as it was.

I think certainly you cannot run a good campaign without a lot of money but in terms of saying I have the most money, I am not sure that means quite as much as it used to.

I am waiting to see these numbers that come out.

The New Jersey election law enforcement commission, none of those reports have been filed yet.

Anything that has trickled out, we heard from the campaigns bragging and that is like trying to do a little bit of one- upmanship on your opponents.

We will see how everyone has raised and how much they will have in the last crucial months.

David: I guess it is relevant to show you raised a certain amount so the state can match those funds going forward.

Daniel, what do the numbers say to you?

Does it say that one is ahead of Does it say that one is ahea % f the other Republicans?

Daniel: I think what the fundraising does show is you really do have -- especially on the Democratic side of the gubernatorial primary -- a competitive field that can raise a lot of money.

Drop out before the primary dates?

On the Republican side I believe you have three of the four candidates so far.

It is a shot in the arm for their candidacies.

You are able to leverage state dollars alongside what you were able to raise.

David: Brent, do we know how much it will cost to run for governor?

Is there a sticker price somewhere?

Brent: I do not know if there is a sticker price but it is a lot of money.

Especially because we have no New Jersey-centric media market, we are sandwiched between New York and Philadelphia.

You have to spend money in New York and Philly to win a race.

And that is what you hear of some being a major player.

David: This is for the three of you.

I know it is early.

Is there anybody who is kind of ahead of the pack?

Peter Woolley said Bill Spadea was ahead of the pack on the Republican side.

Colleen, there are no real numbers to say that but what does your gut tell you about who is the front runner on the blue side and the red side?

Colleen: You are right.

We do not have any numbers yet.

I know people have different opinions but I kind of have been going with Woolley in terms of Bill Spadea because he has that radio show.

David: Free advertising.

Colleen: This is money he does not have to spend.

Free air time he files his papers and does something differently.

Everyone seems to say that Mikie Sherrill is the total package.

David: Dan?

Daniel: The way I generally think of the gubernatorial race is it is hard to say who is the singular front runner.

We have not had any polling, endorsements have not come upon us yet.

I generally think who is in the front of the pack.

On the Democratic side, Mikey Cheryl and Josh Gottheimer are toward the front of the pack.

They have a lot of support from the Democratic establishment and they have a national profile.

I would put Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop toward the front of the pack because he has done well fundraising and has a Super PAC behind him that has a lot of money.

On the Republican side, Bill Spadea's toward the front of the pack because of name ID.

You are seeing the Republican establishment closer between the two of them.

We will have a better sense when the county parties decide who to endorse and that will be interesting to see who is able to get the establishment support.

David: Brent, everyone is in who will be in, right?

As far as candidates go?

Brent: I think the field is set but there have been whispers about other candidates.

David: Gives me a name.

Brent: Nobody I can say yet because I am not sure if it is true yet.

You also should not count out Steve Sweeney or Ras Baraka.

He is left-leaning and has the support.

Maybe just getting 30% of the vote.

I really think -- if you ask anyone or talk to insiders they are like Mikie Sherrill is the establishment candidate but we really do not know.

I think there is a death match on the others IP.

David: [Laughter] Brent: This is a fascinating race.

Get your popcorn.

David: I love the death match, I can see them in "Gladiator 3."

Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer have been good at not engaging with other candidates.

Is there a strategy that is likely to continue?

Is it working for them right now?

Colleen: Certainly they had to win their congressional seats back.

We have heard from people say it was a hypocritical thing for them to do given they hope they do not fill out the seats.

It was hard for them to get involved before the election.

Now I think that you have to engage.

They will have to engage with everybody else.

Certainly in the debates that will be coming up as they get matching funds, because that is a requirement.

I also want to point out that air maybe trying not to engage -- that they are maybe not trying to engage about immigration.

I think both of them did not cast a vote.

I am sure that will come up in the debates, as well.

David: Both got a lot of heat for not showing up for their votes.

They will hear about that a lot in the future as the campaign goes on.

They both qualified how they would vote.

Mikie Sherrill would have voted "no," and Josh Gottheimer said he would have voted "yes."

That is "Roundtable" for this week.

Thank you to Peter Woolley for joining us.

A programming note.

We will be in the room where it happens for the governor's state of the state speech on Tuesday.

Breanna Reynoso will anchor our coverage live at 3:00 p.m. on Tuesday.

I will be in the hallway talking to people as I usually do.

The rest of the team will have news and analysis.

That is Tuesday at 3:00 p.m.. That will be streaming on the NJ Spotlight News YouTube channel.

Follow this show on X.

We would love it if you share this content.

You can also subscribe to the NJ Spotlight News YouTube channel to see what the rest of the team is up to.

I am David Cruz.

For all of the crew at Gateway Center in downtown Newark, thank you for watching.

Announcer: Major funding for "Reporters Roundtable" is provided by RWJ Barnabas Health.

Let's be healthy together.

Rowan University.

Educating New Jersey leaders.

Partnering with New Jersey businesses.

Transforming New Jersey's future.

♪