AND OPPORTUNITIES IN OUR REGION.

>> IN THE NEXT HOUR WE'LL HEAR HOW THE COMMUNITY IS SUPPORTING THE FAMILIES OF FIVE YOUNG SOMALI WOMEN KILLED IN THAT FATAL CAR CRASH LAST FRIDAY NIGHT IN MINNEAPOLIS.

KAOMI LEE CHECKS IN WITH A FORMER WASHINGTON POST REPORTER WHO MOVED TO MINNESOTA, THE MINNESOTA COMMUNITY HE ONCE CALLED THE WORST PLACE TO LIVE IN AMERICA, BUT WE START TONIGHT WITH THE EARLY SUMMER DROUGHT EXPANDING ACROSS THE STATE.

>> Eric: THURSDAY'S U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR UPDATE SHOWS MORE THAN 90% OF THE STATE NOW IN THE ABNORMALLY DRY OR DROUGHT STAGE AND THE SEVERE DROUGHT AREA HAS DOUBLED THE LAST WEEK.

MARK SEELEY JOINS US, LONG-TIME METEOROLOGIST AND CLIMATOLOGIST AT THE U OF M. MARK, AS WE PUT UP THE DROUGHT MAP WHAT DOES IT SHOW US?

>> WELL, PROBABLY THE MOST DISCONCERTING THING I SEE IN IT, ERIC, IS THAT THE MIDSECTION OF MINNESOTA IS NOW IN, YOU KNOW, SEVERE DROUGHT AND IT'S EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ALL THESE WARM TEMPERATURES THAT WE'VE HAD, SO IT'S ON A PACE, IF YOU WILL, WEEK TO WEEK, THAT'S A BIT OF A DISTURBING PACE.

A LOT OF METEOROLOGISTS AND CLIMATOLOGISTS TODAY CALL THAT "FLASH DROUGHT" WHEN IT EXPANDS SO RAPIDLY WEEK TO WEEK AND THAT'S PARTLY A FUNCTION OF HOW WARM THE DARN TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN, WE'VE BEEN SO EXTRAORDINARILY WARM THAT WE, YOU KNOW, IT'S REALLY ACCELERATED THE EXPANSION OF THE DROUGHT.

>> Cathy: WE SHOULD SAY THAT DROUGHT IS NOT NUSUAL FOR MINNESOTA, FOR GOODNESS SAKES.

>> NO, THERE'S MANY MANY DROUGHTS.

IN FACT WE TALKED ABOUT A LITTLE BIT ON MORNING EDITION TOO, CATHY, THAT THERE'S BEEN 13 HISTORICALLY THAT HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THE END OF JUNE INITIATED NEAR THE END OF JUNE.

AND BEEN RATHER SEVERE BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE END OF THE MONTH.

AND 10 OF THOSE 13 HAVE CONTINUED RIGHT THROUGH THE SUMMER.

SO WE HARDLY SEE MITIGATION TAKE PLACE, FULL MITIGATION TAKE PLACE FOR THE BALANCE OF SUMMER IT.

REALLY TENDS MORE OFTEN TO O THE OTHER WAY.

>> Cathy: IS THIS UNUSUAL TOO, WHAT ARE THE MECHANISMS?

I MEAN OBVIOUSLY IT HASN'T RAINED, I GET THAT, BUT THE MECHANISMS BEHIND THESE FLASH DROUGHTS WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THAT KIND OF KEEPS THIS -- THIS IS THE SECOND TIME THIS HAS HAPPENED NOW, RIGHT?

>> RIGHT, RIGHT.

WELL, WE GET DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

BASICALLY THE UNNEL SYSTEMS BYPASS US OR THEY'RE WEAK OR THEY DON'T BEAR A LOT OF MOISTURE.

NOW, WE HAVE HAD A DOMINANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH DOVETAILS NICELY, I MIGHT SAY, WITH ALL OF THE AIR QUALITY ALERTS WE'VE BEEN GETTING AS WELL.

SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT BEING VERY DYNAMIC, IF YOU WILL.

WE'RE NOT GETTING THOSE PROVERBIAL HUGE CHANGES AND SWINGS THAT OUR MINNESOTA HISTORY IS FULL OF AND SO WE GET DRYER AND DRYER AND DRYER.

THE SUN IS OUT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MOST OF THE TIME AND BAKES THE LANDSCAPE, THE WATER USE OF THE NATIVE VEGETATION IS SUCKING ALL THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE SOIL, THE LAKES ARE HEATING UP AND EVAPORATING A LOT MORE WATER, SO EVERYTHING IS OPERATING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION BUT AT A REALLY ACCELERATED RATE.

SO THAT'S WHY WE KEEP SEEING EXPANSION OF THE DROUGHT.

>> Eric: HOW MUCH WOULD WE NEED TO CATCH UP?

>> GOOD QUESTION, ERIC.

I THINK RIGHT NOW WE'D HAVE TO SEE A REVERSAL OF FORTUNE IN THE RAINFALL THAT GAVE US ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 7-INCHES MORE THAN WHAT'S AVERAGE.

>> Eric: IN THE CARDS?

>> I DON'T SEE IT.

NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A REVERSAL IN THE PATTERN.

IT DOES, SILVER LINING STORY IS AS OF TODAY A LOT OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT WE'RE GOING TO WRAP UP JUNE WITH MORE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND AS WE GO INTO JULY WE'LL HAVE MORE FREQUENT CHANCES.

BUT THE QUANTITY IS NOT THERE IF YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN, TO MAKE UP THAT HUGE DEFICIT.

>> Cathy: IS IT TOUGH -- I WAS TALKING TO PEOPLE EARLIER THIS WEEK, THE ASSISTANT STATE CLIMATOLOGIST AND HE'S TERRIFIC AS YOU KNOW, IS IT TOUGH TO BREAK A DROUGHT?

ONCE YOU GET STARTED, YOU JUST TOLD US ABOUT THESE MECHANISMS ONCE THEY GET GOING, IS IT TOUGH TO BREAK?

>> WELL, I'D SAY YOU HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD, CATHY, IN TERMS OF THE TIMING.

THIS TIME OF YEAR AS OPPOSED TO THE SHOULDER SEASONS OF AUTUMN OR SPRING THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ESPECIALLY TOUGH TO BREAK A DROUGHT.

THE HISTORY LESSON THERE IS YOU HARDLY EVER BREAK A DROUGHT IN THE SUMMER SEASON, JUST DOESN'T SEEM TO GO THAT WAY.

EVEN WHEN WE GET A HEAVY DOSE OF PRECIPITATION IT'S USUALLY IN THE CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORM FORM WHERE A LOT OF IT RUNS OFF.

YOU'RE DISCHARGING IT INTO THE STREAM SO FAST THE SOIL DOESN'T HAVE A CHANCE TO TAKE IT ALL IN.

>> Eric: IMPACT ON THE GROWING SEASON?

>> YEAH, I THINK THERE IS SOME REAL CONCERN OUT THERE.

WE WILL HAVE AN ACCELERATED CROP DEVELOPMENT SEASON WHERE PROBABLY EVEN THOUGH WE PLANTED LATE, ERIC, WE'RE PROBABLY GOING TO HAVE THINGS, THINGS ARE GROWING SO FAST IN THIS WARM ENVIRONMENT WE'LL PROBABLY HAVE MATURATION AND HARVESTABLE CROPS READY EARLIER THAN NORMAL TO THE CALENDAR BUT THE QUESTION IS WILL THEY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE SEASON TO PRODUCE A SIZEABLE YIELD?

AND THAT'S WHAT EVERYBODY'S THINKING ABOUT.

>> Cathy: SO I KNOW YOU WORRY ABOUT THIS AN AWFUL LOT SO IF THIS DROUGHT CONTINUES INTO THE FALL, BECAUSE WE ALWAYS WORRY ABOUT RECHARGE, YOU KNOW.

>> RIGHT.

>> Cathy: IT KIND OF HAPPENED LAST YEAR, WE GOT SOME DECENT RAIN.

>> WE DID, AND THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS THIS YEAR THANKFULLY WERE REALLY WETTER THAN NORMAL, STRIKINGLY SO.

SO YOU'RE RIGHT ABOUT THE CARRYOVER EFFECT.

I THINK A LOT OF CLIMATE SCIENTISTS ARE WORRIED IF WE END THE AUTUMN SEASON AND STILL MAYBE THIS DROUGHT EXPANDS EVEN MORE THAT'S NOT A GOOD PRECURSOR TO WHAT WE MIGHT FACE NEXT YEAR IN TERMS OF THE