House of Representatives and ended much the same.

Along the way we saw technology demonstrate its potential to reshape human productivity and creativity.

We've seen wars and violence, and we have worried a lot about the health of American democracy.

Today's guest helps us take stock of all that and name our 2023 Story of the Year.

She's Dr. Evelyn Farkas this week on Story in the Public Square.

(gentle music) (gentle music continues) Hello and welcome to Story in the Public Square, where storytelling meets public affairs.

I'm Jim Ludes from the Pell Center at Salve Regina University.

- And I'm G. Wayne Miller, also with Salve's Pell Center.

- And joining us this week is an old friend.

Dr. Evelyn Farkas is a former Defense Department official in the Obama administration.

She's now Executive Director of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University.

Evelyn, thank you so much for being with us.

- Thank you for having me.

- You know, there's a lot that we wanna talk to you about, about what happened in 2023, but I think at the top of that list, we wanna start with the state of the international community and the world, the world scene.

President Biden and President Xi of China are going to meet in just a couple of days from where we're taping this now.

But this is a relationship, maybe the most important bilateral relationship in the world that has maybe seemed a little chilly in 2023.

What's at stake and how does this play out if we look a little bit into the future?

- Yeah, I mean, I think for President Biden right now, given the fact that we have a hot war raging on the continent of Europe, where Russia is challenging the international order by attacking Ukraine and frankly, trying to wipe it off the geopolitical map.

And now, we have this war in the Middle East where this barbaric attack on the people of Israel has led to Israel having to go into Gaza to root out the terrorists.

And a real danger, frankly, that the war will spread beyond that.

Meanwhile, in Asia Pacific, we have the Chinese, you know, facing off with the Philippine Navy in the South China Sea over who possesses various islands.

So all of this is very dangerous, and I think what President Biden wants to do with China in particular right now, is to ratchet down the pressure and understand where the lines are in terms of where we agree and disagree, and where we'll work together to make sure that we don't have some kind of global meltdown economically and certainly, God forbid, militarily.

- So let's get into one of those wars and that's the Israel-Hamas War.

What can we expect of the conduct of that war currently?

And, again, bearing in mind that, you know, we're taping at about five weeks after October 7th.

- That's right, Wayne, so it looks like the Israelis are going in, they're rooting out the Hamas terrorists, that is the phase one of a political arrangement that includes a lot of other countries besides Israel and besides the Israeli people and the Palestinian people.

So Israel needs to at least get the direct security threat posed by Hamas into a manageable situation.

They also need to get their hostages back.

There are 240 roughly, Israeli hostages, children, grandparents, people who are injured, who are being held underground we think by the Hamas terrorists, they need to be returned to Israel.

But then, the next phase needs to be, as I said, internationalized so it's tricky right now because of course, the Israelis, they are not...

Unlike the Russians, they are not intentionally targeting civilians, yet they have killed many civilians.

So it's incumbent upon the international community to do as much as fast as possible to move the situation into the political resolution phase, if you will.

- You know, Evelyn, the other major war in the world right now is in Ukraine.

And you have spent considerable time talking about this issue, I know that you've been to Ukraine recently, what do you say to your Ukrainian contacts and friends who maybe are a little bit concerned about what some might perceive as a softening of American support really just in the last several months with Congress' inability to move an aid package for the Ukrainian people?

- I tell the Ukrainians not to worry because, frankly, the votes in the House and in the Senate are still there.

The members of Congress on the whole, you know, the majority of them understand what's at stake here.

That, you know, the Ukrainians are fighting for all of us to stand up for the sanctity of boundaries, for sovereignty, for human rights.

And that if Russia were to actually win, if Russia were to succeed in taking over Ukraine, then NATO, our allies in NATO would be endangered, which would mean that there's an increased risk that we, Americans, would have to go to war.

So I think that members of Congress understand that.

Whether that's being communicated clearly to the American people, that's another question.

And I think all of us can do a better job doing that.

- So nonetheless, there are House Republicans who are against aid, what's behind that?

What's their motivation, what's their agenda?

- Well, Wayne, the ones that are firmly opposed to aid to Ukraine, frankly, seem to be the ones who oppose everything the administration is doing and have kind of a negative agenda that we don't know what they're for, but they're against government assistance, they're against government at large, and they don't give us an alternative agenda.

So, you know, I don't want to name names, but the ones on the far right who just, you know, come hell or high water, they don't want any assistance to Ukraine.

They frankly, are playing into the agenda of Vladimir Putin.

So without articulating an alternative way to secure the international order and to defend Ukraine, what they're essentially saying is that we should capitulate to Vladimir Putin.

And that should be unacceptable to all of us, of course.

You know, Evelyn, so we mentioned you're the Executive Director of the McCain Institute, named for one of the great Americans who was an internationalist in his core.

You know, are there are there enough people like John McCain still prominent and powerful in both parties in the United States right now?

- I mean, I think there's no one quite like John McCain.

He had the courage of his convictions.

You know, at the McCain Institute where our mission is really using his legacy and his memory as our kind of inspiration.

We defend democracy, human rights, and we build character driven leaders.

And character driven leaders are people who make decisions based on their values.

And that's what Senator McCain did.

He was very strong again, as I said, in his convictions, unswayed by what other people thought.

And he had a deep core conviction that America was safer, that our democracy was safer if we worked around the world to try to protect human rights and democracy.

And, of course, the international order, the rules of the road for others.

- Yeah, that's a great segue to the dynamics that we saw begin and end the year 2023 in the House of Representatives where the year began with Speaker Kevin McCarthy after 15 ballots to first secure the speakership.

Then being unceremoniously removed from the speakership before the end of the year.

When you think about sort of the health of American democracy, when you're talking with your international contacts, what does that sort of... What do those events in Washington, and in the House of Representatives in particular convey both about the health of our democracy, but to people who are observing from abroad?

- Yeah, you're right, Jim so I was, as you mentioned recently in Ukraine, in Poland.

I have traveled throughout the year in other parts of Europe and Germany, in Sweden, Finland, et cetera.

And in all of those countries, frankly, people are worried about the state of American democracy and what that means for them, frankly, whether we are going to be a stalwart ally to them, whether we're going to defend democracy, how are we going to use all of our military, economic and political power?

And, frankly, whether Vladimir Putin is going to actually have more control over the United States and our democracy because Putin and Xi, you know, they are not done trying to interfere.

And, frankly, President Trump likes Vladimir Putin and would try to work, as he says, with him.

So I think the allies are nervous.

Again, watching what happened in the House of Representatives.

It's not just our allies, it's also the international ratings agencies, Fitch and Moody's, they've taken note of this.

So it is a dangerous time right now.

I don't think, we've been in a more dangerous time, rankly, in my lifetime.

- So we have a senator, Senator Tommy Tuberville, who has put a hold on every Defense Department nomination.

You worked in the Senate, is this "normal?"

What's going on there, - Wayne, it's so abnormal, it's really appalling, frankly, because the men and women who serve in the military, they are apolitical.

They don't, most of them....

I mean, most of them don't talk about their party affiliation.

Many of them refuse to even vote, which I think is taking it a little too far.

But they are serving to defend our democracy.

The system that promotes them and moves people in and out of positions is very well timed, and very well rehearsed.

But what Senator Tuberville has done is, essentially, kind of throw a wrench into the axle, into the wheel.

And so, the wheel is trying to move to continue to make sure that we have sentinels, you know, people on the ships, and at the borders, and doing everything to protect America physically, you know, our airspace, our seas, et cetera.

Yet, the senator has put a hold on all of these promotions.

And again, the promotions, they're all very well timed, and racked and stacked, you know, one sequentially after the other.

And so, this also affects not just the people going to those positions but, as many of the DOD officials have made clear, the families, and do you need the families to agree that their spouse, you know, their wife or husband can have a job in the military.

They need to be comfortable with it and go along with that lifestyle.

And what Senator Tuberville has done is throw all of that into doubt.

And so, we've heard the Secretary of the Army, Christine Wormuth saying some of the members, senior members of the Army are actually leaving the service.

- You know, Evelyn, the former president, Donald Trump, faces 91 different criminal charges from different cases brought in different constituencies, as well as a pretty substantial civil trial in New York state, you know, I wonder if you could provide some context for us around just the level of alleged criminal behavior, and the possible ramifications of that for the 2024 election?

- Jim, I'm not a historian and, you know, you should have a historian on and do a whole show about this because it is so unprecedented.

And yet, we have become used to it almost.

In 91, 91 indictments, I mean, it's incredible.

And these range from, you know, sexual assault all the way to corruption and then trying to overturn our democracy, I mean, insurrection, you know, it's unprecedented.

And again, also means that we're at this point where the danger is not just international, it's also domestic because, of course, President Trump is the front runner in the 2024 presidential elections, - You know, on that domestic front too, and I'm not saying that these are necessarily related, but Christopher Ray, the Director of the FBI, has been warning all year long about the threat of domestic extremism and the rise in particular of anti-Semitic attacks.

And I think we've seen this too increase since the beginning of hostilities in the Middle East.

You know, you've had a long history of focusing on issues of extremism, both in the United States and abroad.

How worried are you about this trend?

- I am worried, I don't think we've seen this much antisemitism, you know, in my recent past, you know, since maybe even the Holocaust, because I'm now also thinking very clearly about what the Hamas fighters did to the Jewish innocent people living in Israel.

I mean, barbaric things to babies, you know, so that is, again, the killing, the way the people were killed, the Jews were killed is appalling.

And, frankly, there is not enough attention being paid to that.

And I think also President Trump, and this is the link to the domestic political situation, President Trump has cozied up to white supremacists.

White supremacists are not only racist against Black and Brown people, but they're also antisemitic.

Remember Charlottesville, - [Jim] Yeah.

- They were chanting anti-Semitics, they had antisemitic slogans as well.

So the rise in antisemitism is also linked to the rise of white supremacy, and frankly, the MAGA right movement, these insurrectionists who tried to take over the capitol, take over our democracy.

- So despite this Evelyn, and despite the 91 charges, Donald Trump remains very popular with a lot of people.

And, as you mentioned, he's the clear front runner for the nomination for a Republican candidate.

What does this say about the health of American democracy?

- Well, it says that the democracy is very, very sick.

And, you know, I would say, I'm not sure whether we're in the ICU yet, but we're getting close.

Let's see what happens... You know, let's see what it looks like closer to the elections.

But President Biden ran last time saying he was going to... You know, he was basically the democratic choice with a small d that he was the alternative standing between, you know, a democratic America with a small d, or an autocratic America and, unfortunately, it looks like we're still headed towards that kind of a election.

- So let's drill down for a second here on the popularity of Donald Trump.

What is behind that, what do people see in him that make them so, you know, allegiant to him and willing to vote for him again?

- Well, he's a populist and he has taken advantage of various trends, demographic trends changes in US society, the rural versus the urban discrepancy in terms of income and perspective on the future.

There's also a lot of other societal forces like the opioid epidemic, so many things I can pile on here, Wayne and Jim.

So the economic discrepancy that's grown, so between the rich and the poor, the rich getting super rich, whereas the working class people haven't been increasing their prospects for the future.

Their families are actually seeing less opportunity over the horizon.

The rise of new technology, which I know you guys will get to soon, the uncertainty that new technology and change brings.

Frankly, climate change, you know, that's underlying all of this.

While we stupid humans fight each other day in and day out all over the world, frankly, we should all be focused on saving our climate because that's exacerbating the things we fight over: food, water, territory.

So, you know, there are a lot of factors right now that have made people susceptible to populism and maybe also the lack of a leader that can counter that, someone like John McCain, who will stand up and give an alternative message.

- You know, when we think about elections, they are all about alternative messages.

And I'm wondering if you have thoughts.

You've been a candidate for office yourself.

The 2024 Republican primary process is just about to kick off and what strikes me is that we've seldom in history seen a better debate for second place.

Why do you think the GOP nominating process thus far, has been so anemic?

- Well, I think that it's very interesting, the parties just don't seem to have the power that they used to.

And, you know, some of that is good, but some of it is also not good.

It has to do with money and the people who have money having more power, frankly, than the parties.

And so, the candidates who come to the fore are the ones who can raise the money.

And the debate and the competition that we're seeing on the Republican stage is not really real, as long as you have Donald Trump still saying he's going to run.

So it's quite shocking, I don't think it's a good development but, you know, we need to do a lot of reform also of our political system, frankly.

- So levels of gun violence continue at unprecedented, alarming, heartbreaking rates.

Why is it so hard for this country to confront that and to come up with some reasonable solution so that we can save lives?

- That goes back to money as well, although, as we know, the gun lobby has decreased some of its power, but there's still a lot of money going into support gun rights.

And the messaging from the, you know, moderate and certainly the Democratic side isn't getting through in sufficient numbers.

I will say, however, I have taken heart in more recent bipartisan efforts to deal with gun violence.

And, of course, in Maine you saw one representative, one of the Maine representatives change his position on gun safety in the aftermath of the horrible recent shooting there.

So there is some courage and some politicians are showing that they can change their minds and, at least, back some gun safety legislation.

So I do think that we are getting closer to a situation where there might be real significant legislation, but we really still need to address the money, the lobbying that is behind why there's a lack of sufficient courage.

- Well, that brings us to The Story of the Year, the rise of artificial intelligence.

For me, the 2023 Story of the Year began at the end of 2022 when a friend sent me a link to OpenAI's ChatGPT.

Like millions of others, I played around with it.

And after a while, I concluded that my entire approach to signing papers needed to be overhauled.

In the weeks and months that followed a veritable cottage industry of soothsayers and influencers rose around AI to make ChatGPT the fastest growing application in the history of the internet.

But artificial intelligence did not spontaneously emerge from the mist fully formed.

It's the result of hundreds of thousands of hours of labor.

It's the fruit of genius, hard work, ingenuity, and creativity.

What began at Dartmouth University as an experiment in preparing thinking machines has spawned an industry of Hollywood fantasies like "2001: A Space Odyssey," "The Terminator" and, of course, "I, Robot."

It has also spawned grave concerns about the impact artificial intelligence will have on employment, on creativity, and even on our politics.

Most of us on social media probably have encountered so-called deep fakes, synthetic media that might show different actors playing the same role, but could easily be used to embarrass, or spoof political rivals, if not undermine confidence in the integrity of an election by manipulating our very sense of reality.

But artificial intelligence is still a human creation, full of all the flaws and biases that make us human.

The challenge for pioneers in the pursuit of artificial intelligence is to leave biases in the computer lab and not transfer them into the algorithms that increasingly shape our lives.

So far, the evidence is mixed.

AI is here, and the transformation of the globe around jobs and productivity is just beginning.

It has played a role in recent labor disputes in Hollywood, sent anxiety soaring among academics, and opened a new venue for electoral interference.

It is both alluring and chilling at the same time.

We don't know how the balance will come out in the end but, for all of these reasons and for countless others, we name the rise of artificial intelligence, the 2023 Story of the Year.

So Evelyn Farkas, as you think about AI and what it means, how do you see... What kind of risks do you see facing the United States in this new era when we think about the election of 2024?

- Well, in terms of the election of 2024, I do worry about the use of AI to propagate, as you said, disinformation.

There's not a lot of time to verify deep fakes or any kind of misinformation and AI can very rapidly get this into the information bloodstream, if you will.

So there's a real danger that AI will mislead voters that, you know, we'll need to counter with real leaders coming out and setting the facts straight quickly.

I also worry, you didn't mention the security perspective, the security implications of AI, because you can have swarms of drones, you can have all kinds of military weapons used by AI, you know, controlled by AI.

You can take the human out of the loop, if you will, if we're not careful, that could happen.

And the McCain Institute, we hosted an event with Henry Kissinger and Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, as you know, together, or you may know together, they wrote a book on AI.

And the bottom line message that they had was be excited and be afraid, they both said that we need to regulate it and they said, unlike arms control, where we understood nuclear, chemical, biological weapons, how they worked, they said, we're gonna have to regulate this thing, Congress, you know, the governments around the world need to regulate this, but we don't even fully understand what we're regulating.

So the challenge is pretty overwhelming right now.

- So you outlined some of the concrete fears and concerns.

But you also used the term excitement.

And I had a conversation recently with my son who's very much into computers, and online, and he sees the concerns of AI but he also sees it as exciting and possibilities.

Talk about the good things that might come out of AI, things that we could all celebrate.

- Yeah, I mean, so first of all, medical advances.

You know, already physicians have been talking about the fact that you can map diseases, that you can counter them much more quickly.

That AI just does computations that a human cannot do.

So the the implications for human longevity, if you'd like to live long, you know, that's a debate also because, you know, how long should humans live?

But the implications are great.

Now, the quality of life, I think we all agree, you know, you may not wanna live past 90 or 80, it's up to you, but you wanna have the best quality of life and I think AI can definitely help with that.

There's also, in day-to-day work, you know, Microsoft is calling it a co-pilot.

This idea that your work can be sped up, it can be more efficient, which means that your productivity is up and that's good for the economy.

Many of the economists who have talked about the fact that the United States and the global economy doesn't look so good below the surface, when they look at the current situation, they think the economies are kind of sick, the global economy is sick.

But they point to AI as potentially bringing us out of what could be a potential recession.

So there are clearly positive impacts of AI.

- So hope, but a little caution too.

Dr. Evelyn Farkas from the McCain Institute, thank you so much for being with us.

That is all the time we have this week, but if you wanna know more about Story in the Public Square, you can find us on social media or visit pellcenter.org where you can always catch up on previous episodes.

For G. Wayne Miller, I'm Jim Ludes asking you to join us again next time for more Story in the Public Square.

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