>> Major funding for Reporters Roundtable is provided by RWJ Barnabas health.

Let's be healthy together.

♪ David: If a poll is a snapshot in time, what is the picture heading into the weekend before election day?

Hey everybody, it is Reporters Roundtable.

Our pre-election panel includes Colleen O'Dea eight, Senior writer and project manager at NJ Spotlight news.

Brent Johnson, the politics reporter, and the editor of Politico NJ.

Let's start today with that snapshot in time.

What are voters thinking in these final days of the race for president and Congress and more?

Our guest is the director of the Rutgers Eagleton center for polling.

We welcome her back to roundtable.

Hey Ashley, what's up?

Ashley: A snapshot in time, great way to phrase that.

David: See?

Good enough.

Conveniently Eagleton has a new poll out this week.

What does it say numbers-wise?

Ashley: this is no surprise we've seen Democrats with hopeful leads when it comes to presidential, when it comes to Senate, and more congressional candidates in the state.

This is nothing new.

We want to get that New Jersey moniker -- [INDISCERNIBLE] Again, these are numbers that are taken from respondents that are south identify voters.

We don't know what happened on election -- know what will happen on election night.

In fact, we did a survey experiment.

While Harris and Trump are universally known, and partisanship affects their numbers very little, when we look at that Senate race, when these candidates are unknown, permission on those candidates really matters.

Certainty really skyrockets there.

In reality, we know partisanship will be on the ballot, but that is why it is powerful for voters to fill in those information gaps when they don't have enough information on down ballot races.

David: 20 points here, it looks like, for Harris over Trump.

And then over 20 points, no?

For Kim over Bashaw.

Ashley: Kim improved his numbers and favorability over last fall.

Bashaw being new to the scene, no one in the state really has an opinion on him.

It is hard to overcome that, especially days away from the election.

David: Brent, you at a question -- you had a question?

Brent: You had a poll out today, which is Friday, showing how 81% of New Jerseyans have some sort of fear of political violence during this election.

What do those results show you/ Ashley: We we see -- We see New Jersey voters think there will be violence subsequent to the election results.

This is among partisans of all kinds.

High numbers are worried about what the future looks like.

It seems like partisans and independents alike are agreeing there is a problem, that political violence is a major problem nowadays.

I just don't think they will agree on the solutions.

David: what is at the top of voters minds in this snapshot?

We always hear around affordability and how that is critical.

Is there anything in the poll that suggests that issue or any other particular issues are top of mind?

Ashley: I will give you a sneak peek into our results coming out on election day next week.

We asked what is at the top of voters minds in terms of issues.

It is the economy.

This is not a surprise.

I am sure all of us could have guessed it.

We have seen candidate character and quality is coming in in those top three, as well as abortion.

Two issues we have been hearing about on the campaign trail for the duration of the cycle, and also this issue that Eastern New Jersey voters know who the candidates are.

Not shocking given these large leads among the presidential and Senate race.

David: All polls should come with a warning label that says what, Ashley?

Ashley: This is not a prediction, this is not a crystal ball.

We need to realize there is an inherent uncertainty to polls.

They are blunt instruments.

We need to understand what they should and should not be used for.

This is what is happening.

That is a snapshot in time.

It is important to recognize that voters who say they will vote and do not.

What this tell us is, will these be close races?

Will these not be close races?

David: On methodology, how do you conduct these things?

Home phones, cell phones?

How has the methodology changed?

Nobody goes door to door anymore.

Ashley: No.

All of us needs to be a good poll detective to make sure we are paying attention to credible surveys.

It is all of our jobs to convey what to look for in a credible poll.

That has changed over time.

It is a wild West for the industry right now.

We used to do telephones, then land lines and cell phones.

That means getting creative.

Text message to web, looking at probability, upholding that old standard of telephone we had in yesteryear, but looking toward future endeavors and tools to make sure we are still getting coverage and make sure we are still getting answers.

David: When a poll shows a 10 point lead that ends up being a four point victory or a loss, why does stuff like that happen?

Ashley: [INDISCERNIBLE] That is why we can't say Harris or Trump is up by a point.

That is a statistical dead heat.

That margin of error, that plus or minus, is so incredibly important.

When we are talking about election results, it should be double when we are thinking about this.

How that type of pulling ever -- of polling error, what we saw on election day, near single digits.

Important to understand how to apply that margin of error to any results we see.

These results are not etched in stone.

They are a band of probability.

David: We have been asking people over the last two weeks how they are feeling in these final days, whether they are stressed or anxious to or full of anticipation -- anxious or full of anticipation.

How are you feeling?

Ashley: oh wow, I thought you would ask how voters are feeling.

I am with the voters.

I am apprehensive.

It is a consequential election for the country.

For the industries we are in, for polling, this has consequences up and down the board.

I am apprehensive and fearful.

There are fears among voters in terms of what may happen regardless of who may win.

It is a turning point for the country right now.

David: Rutgers Eagleton Center for public interest polling, thanks for being with us.

Ashley: Thanks for having me.

Always great to talk to you.

David: Panel, welcome.

Good to see you all.

Let's start with this Eagleton poll.

Cold water on Republican hopes in Jersey, no?

Dustin: It depends on your expectations.

The Republican has not one in a half-century.

I don't think anybody had come outside the Bashaw campaign, that he would be competitive.

I don't think it is Goldwater.

I think it just -- I don't think it is cold water.

I think it just reveals the preferences of New Jersey voters.

David: Colleen, not a surprise, right?

Colleen: No.

I want to point out to any of the Republicans, and I think Elon Musk is among them, that they keep forgetting about the vote by mail ballot when they talk about how Republicans are surging ahead in early voting.

If we look at vote by mail and early in person numbers, we can see Democrats have cast 48% of the early votes so far and there is about 1.3 million early votes as of end of day Wednesday.

That is the data I've got so far.

The Republican percentage is 29%.

New Jersey is a blue state, at least at the federal level.

David: The devil is in the details.

What do you think voters think when they see these polls?

When someone sees a 20 point lead, does it discourage them from going to the polls, you think?

Brent: I don't know.

It could have the opposite effect.

It could encourage someone from the losing party to get out there.

I don't know how many vote based on polling.

Pulling is a snapshot in time -- Polling is a snapshot in time.

Republicans were really bullish on this election, probably more so earlier in the cycle when Menendez might have run.

There are even some Democrats who were privately telling me, this will be closer than what we expect.

This poll shows that may not be the case.

I guess we will find out on Tuesday.

David: Early voting still going on.

I guess this is the new normal.

Do voters like it?

Colleen: they certainly like it this year.

Up until this year, the numbers have been very lackluster.

Just a few percentage points of the total turnout in the congressional and gubernatorial election, it was about 208,000 people came out last year for the legislative election, about 54,000.

The idea that we would in two days surpassed a past record is pretty amazing.

Seeing the lines out the door of election places, which we are not used to see and in New Jersey, is pretty -- seeing in New Jersey, is pretty amazing.

By the time we get yesterday's numbers, they could wind up surpassing the vote by mail.

Maybe now that people have seen it and enjoyed it, they will keep using it.

David: Republicans seem to have come around.

They used to hate this stuff, said it was ripe for fraud.

At last check, they were ahead in the early voting anyway.

This is the new normal for Republicans too, I guess.

Dustin: I think so.

It seems to me that the party may have learned a lesson from 2020 and the ramifications of not participating in mail-in voting, not embracing it.

There are still some lingering conspiracy theories and rhetoric around it being subject to fraud and abuse, but as we have seen in New Jersey, that isn't the case.

There is a large segment of very sensible voters out there who are Republicans and understand that this is just the way that it is, it is convenient and safe.

David: A lot of times we forget that voters by and large pretty much no what they are doing.

Brent, what is the impact going to be on election day proper?

Will we see fewer voters?

Does it affect either party getting there voters out early?

Brent: I think we are seeing an evolution of how people are voting.

I think people are starting to get used to it.

We may not know everything on election day.

We might know the Senate race.

I don't know if we will know the close congressional district race.

You are seeing the volume of people coming out.

There is a lot of anxieties.

That poll that came out this morning on people worried about violence, which NJ media cosponsored, we wanted to look into that.

We are getting a sense from voters that they are really interests on either side -- really anxious on either side.

There is a lot hanging in the air.

David: What are your thoughts on that, Colleen, this real sense that there is a prospect of violence?

That did not used to be the case.

That is a new normal too, that feeling of anxiety.

Colleen: After January 6, I don't see how people can't feel that way, because we certainly did see the violence after the 2020 election.

It only seems that the rhetoric has amped up since then, and certainly some of the rhetoric we have been hearing over the last couple weeks from, in particular supporters of Donald Trump, it does seem that violence is possible.

I certainly would not discount it.

Dustin: -- David: Dustin, is it good for business on one side of the other to hype up the idea of potential violence?

Dustin: No.

[LAUGHTER] But it has become a part of the reality, unfortunately.

The Former President was shot at, and after that happened he said he was going to try to unite the country and tone down the rhetoric.

The exact opposite has happened.

Just last night, he suggested that the former Congresswoman Liz Cheney get in front of a firing squad of sorts.

It is just total insanity.

I really don't understand any candidate would invoke violence in any way, especially considering we live in a country with mass shootings and school shootings, just a regular occurrence.

It is unfathomable why anyone would think about that.

David: State races.

To the extent that any of them are close, Bashaw versus Kim.

Are we going to see any surprises?

Dustin: If there will be any surprises, it will be in the seventh.

We have not seen any indicators otherwise.

The only surprise is whether Su e Altman can unseat Tom Keene Junior in the Senate.

If she does, it would be a true upset.

Democrats have not held that seat in four years or so.

Kean won it in 2022.

It is very competitive.

We don't have a lot of insight.

There has been limited public polling.

It is within the margin of error that Ashley talked about.

That will be the most closely watched race.

It could help determine control of the house.

David: It is interesting how the evolution of these two candidates particularly, Tom Kean Jr. used to be a pretty affable dude when he was in the legislature.

Sue Altman was kind of strident for a lot of people.

She now is never seen not smiling, and Tom Kean Jr. won't talk to anybody.

Brent: The way these candidates have run this campaign is a direct correlation to help herbal that district -- to how people that -- how purple that district is.

It is one of the most swing district-y in the country.

You bend one way, you bend the other.

You have to run a very campaign in the seventh district.

That is part of why it is so close.

I think this is an election that the entire country should pay attention to, because it is an indicator of a lot of the things going on in this election.

This will play a hand in who controls the house come Tuesday.

David: Colleen, the swinging seventh district.

Colleen: We are swinging here.

I live in the seventh district.

I can tell you I have gotten more than 40 mailers from both sides.

I can't get away from those ads that are running on New York TV.

As both Dustin and Brent said, this is the place to watch.

There is a significant Republican registration advantage of 19,000 votes, three percentage points.

Because this is a presidential year, you are getting more people out to vote, more unaffiliated people out to vote, and they can certainly swing the race.

We are not clear about whether there are Republicans who are uncomfortable voting for Donald Trump, who might not then vote down ticket for other Republicans.

Yeah, it's anybody's guess who is going to win.

David: Top of the ticket predictions.

Brent?

Brent: In terms of the presidential race?

In New Jersey I think Harris will win.

There has been a lot of bullishness on the Trump side that they will take New Jersey.

That has not happened since I was a child, that a Republican won New Jersey.

I was five years old in 1998.

I don't see that happen nationally.

I think Harris might have the slight edge, but it is really anybody's guess.

This is as close a presidential race as we have seen in some time, probably 2016.

None of us really expected that to go that way.

David: Colleen, you are the data maven.

What are the numbers telling you nationally?

Colleen: We can look at national polls, but why bother?

It is all about the electoral college, all about those seven swing states.

Every day when I look at them, it seems like there is a flip of 1%.

As Ashley reminded us earlier, it is all about the margin of error.

She's going -- Harris is going to win New Jersey.

As for the country, I could not say.

I'm on the edge of my seat like every other American.

David: Dustin, neither of these two is daring enough to make a prediction on the national race.

We leave it to you.

Dustin: I would be foolish to make a solid prediction, so I will say it will be like Florida 2000.

Supreme Court will decide it.

David: To me, the biggest and worst news of the week is the announcement that NJ advance media is going to close the print editon of The Star-Ledger, this newspaper.

It is ending its print publication in 2025, going to an online edition only.

This is a quote from management.

"This is a forward-looking decision that allows us to invest more deeply than ever in our journalism and in serving our communities."

Etc.

The Jersey Journal closing, shutting down, no online edition in 2025.

Let me get your reaction to this, local reporters.

Brent, this will be affecting you pretty directly, no?

Brent: Ever since I was a kid -- my dad was a Brady -- was a radio broadcaster.

He brought home the Star Journal.

I loved the look and the writing.

I got that opportunity for 18 years to see my name in the print edition of The Star-Ledger, which was an honor.

This is a sad step, obviously.

It is a necessary step.

The writing has been on the wall in our industry in many ways.

You can still get the paper online.

You can download what looks like the newspaper online.

NJ.com continues on.

I will be covering politics.

Unfortunately the editorial staff is no longer going to be writing editorials, which is a sad thing.

This is the way the industry is moving, and we have to learn how to adapt.

It is still shocking and still sad.

David: Colleen, you have been what Charlie likes to call -- what is it, think stained scribes -- ink-stained scribes?

Colleen: I grew up in Jersey City.

We got the Jersey Journal and the Star-Ledger and I think the New York Daily News delivered every day.

That ink is in my blood.

I can't imagine.

I know reading habits have changed, but I still think there must be thousands of people out there who like to read.

I like to have it in my hands when I can.

I cannot imagine the state's second largest city having no citywide newspaper.

I know there are other websites there, but it's just mind-boggling to me that -- I think it's a tragedy.

David: Dustin, you have been at a newspaper or two in your day too?

Dustin: Yes.

I have been a victim and witness to all these sorts of changes and reductions.

My hope as somebody in the profession, but also someone who cares about newspapers and journalism and civic engagement, all that fun stuff, I hope that Advance backs up their words that they will invest in their newsroom, because historically we have heard that and it is lipservice, it never happens.

It would be nice to see someone who can pair up and complement Brent, for all intents and purposes is the only man in the statehouse.

It would be nice to see him get support.

David: Here is to all you journalists who struggled in newspapers.

I started my broadcast career reading the Jersey Journal allowed at the kitchen table -- aloud at the kitchen table in my house.

Terrence McDonald for goodness sake.

How is it possible that a city of almost 300,000 people will soon have zero newspapers?

What does it matter?

A billion dollars here, a billion dollars there, zoning board, planning board, more billions.

We will never know about half that stuff.

Brent Johnson, Dustin, Colleen, warriors all.

Good to see you.

Thank you.

Also thanks to Ashley for joining us.

A programming note, be with us on election night Tuesday.

NJ decides 2024.

Election night coverage.

We are live starting at 8:00 p.m. with the whole team on call across the state, at campaign headquarters, and in studio with me.

That is Tuesday on NJ PBS and all of our streaming platforms.

That is Roundtable this week.

You can follow us on X.

If you like this content, free field -- feel free to share it.

And subscribe to our YouTube.

From the Gateway Center in downtown Newark, thanks for watching.

We will see you on Tuesday.

>> Major funding for reporters roundtable with David Cruz is funded by RWJ Barnabas health.

Let's be healthy together.

♪