Time for some analysis from our# Politics Monday team.

That is## Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report# With Amy Walter and Tamara Go od to see you both.

AMY WA TAMA saw the interview with Senator Mu Amy, what this bill proposes# is inc one of the biggest pieces of legislation for# immigration in three decades in Th e fact that the president was willing to go# as far as he was, what does that say to you?

AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: Well,# I think it says that Democrats know, including## the president, how problematic this issue is# for their party going into an What I find even more interesting, and# it's going to be a really interesting## test for the issue of immigration, is# next week.

There's a special electi in a congressional district.

This is# George Santos' seat on Long Island.

The issue of immigration, not surprisingly,# is playing a starring role with the Democrat## there taking a position that sounds very much# like Joe Biden, talking about being able to## have more border security, supporting this# plan that just was released by the Senate.

The Republican candidate and Republicans# in general attacking the plan, she has not## supported the plan, and attacking# the Democrats, including this one,## as being part of the open border party.

In other# words, by the time next Tuesday comes around,## and by Wednesday, when we have the results of# the election, we will have at least our first,## our very first test for whether this issue and# the way Democrats are talking about it, the way## Republicans are talking about it, which side# can claim some sort of political victory.

Again, it's a special, so we# can't draw too many conclusions,## but we will really get a sense# for whether or not, for example,## if Republicans lose, this strategy of just# blaming everything on Biden ma AMNA NAWAZ: Yes.

best shot at immigration reform.

They# have been cl TAMARA KEITH: Right.

does that blow back on them from their base?

TAMARA KEITH: Not from their base.

I don't thin I mean, there is this argument that# if this is the crisis they say it i that it has to be dealt with right now# -- and this is an argument that you're## hearing from people like James Lankford.# If it has to then why wait until after the election?

Why# wait until, in theory, Trump is in office?## And then you might still have a divided# government, and you might not get this.

So you're still -- you're -- at the best-case# scenario, you're pushing this a year out,## and worst-case scenario potentially way more# gridlock.

But Trump has made it abundantly## clear that he does not want this.

He was back# out on the air today saying it's terrible,## calling it amnesty, all of# these things that it isn't.

But it is a compromise.

It is not the bill# that former Presid sign.

It's not the bill that the speaker of the# House would author.

But it is something that,## in theory, if it actually could get to a# floor vote, which it may not get in the## Senate and it is even less likely to get in# the House, it is something that could pass.

It would be sort of a coalition of# moderates and national security hawks,## and it's a random coalition.

You would lose all# the people on the left and on the far right,## but it could potentially pass.

It may# not get a chance to have that audition.

AMNA NAWAZ: Speaking of those# national security hawks, Amy,## I want to ask you.

The biggest piece# of this bill is th Republicans largely remain# opposed to it in the House.

AMY WALTER: That's right.

AMY WALTER: No, because this debate# is really now about the border,## and that national security piece of it# is -- has been sort of separated out.

I mean, I think the fact# that the speaker is saying,## look, we're willing to do a# stand-alone bill on Israel (CROSSTALK) AMNA NAWAZ: Just on Israel.

AMY WALT that holding up funding for Ukraine# is a political problem for them or... TAMARA KEITH: With their base.

AM AMNA NAWAZ: So, meanwhile, the 2024 primary# season rolls on.

Presi first primary win after South Carolina voted# on Saturday.

Take a look at these results.

It is what you would call a decisive win,# 96 percent of the vote there to Marianne## Williamson' 2 percent to Dean Phillips'# just under 2 percent there as well.

Look, Amy, we know four years ago it# was Black voters there that really## resurrected his campaign.

Did they show up# with the same AMY WALTER: Obviously, turnout as down# considerably because it wasn't competitive## and it's very hard to get people excited to show# up to vote in a race that's not competitive.

I know why the Biden campaign wants to# point to that 96 percent number and to## the turnout in certain areas of the state# that have significant African American## population.

It's to sort of tamp down the# hand-wringing among many Democrats that the## campaign has a base problem, has a problem# especially with African American voters.

I don't think this is going to make that case,# because, as I said, it's not a real race.

It was## this -- a race against candidates who didn't# campaign.

Where it did make a case, though,## is against the idea that Dean Phillips has -- who# is one of those candidates there, has been raising## for a while now that voters want an alternative,# they want a younger alternative to Joe Biden.

Clearly, they do not, or, at the very least,# they do not want him to be that alternative.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, there's also concerns# more broadly about the Biden coalition,## right, after there was this# opinion headline in The Wall## Street Journal that called Dearborn,# Mi Biden issued a statement# about Islamophobia and hate,## and says we have to condemn it in all# fo the Muslim and Arab voters, the voters of# color, especially in a state like Michigan?

TAMARA KEITH: So, every voter matters,# especially in a state like Michigan or## Georgia or Wisconsin or Nevada, the key swing# states that are going to decide this election.

In Nevada, for instance, it was very narrowly# divided -- decided.

President Biden won by## very few votes, same in Georgia.

Michigan,# he actually won by a bit more.

But he had## these very narrow victories in several key states,# which means every little piece of margin matters.

And, yes, young voters are a challenge# that the Biden campaign is trying to## figure out how to address, but they# face all kinds of challenges.

Like,## young voters are not watching TV.

They're# not watching ads on cable.

They are no consuming their news in a way that# is easy to find them.

And so there## are a lot of barriers that they are facing that# they're trying to figure out how to deal with.

But, absolutely, they have a problem with# young voters.

They have a problem with## voters of color, and they're trying to work on it.

AMNA NAWAZ: Yes.

a couple of weeks ago, that was the exact point# he made was, one of these groups alone be enough to sink Biden's fortunes in the# state, because he has a big enough cushion.

But if you combine all three of those into one... AMNA NAWAZ: Yes.

(CROSSTALK) leans a little bit Democratic to absolute# toss-up to maybe even going AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, you mentioned# Nevada.

On the Republican side,## on Tuesday, there's going to be a# state-run presidenti days later, there's going to be a party-run# presidential caucus.

TAMARA KEITH: It's a mess, and it's confusing# to voters.

And many of them have already voted,## early-voted in this primary that will matter# zero for delegates in the Republican pri The caucus is where it's at in terms of# delegates, and Trump is largely unopposed there,## because Nikki Haley isn't on the primary# ballot.

It's a big mess.

But what is most## interesting to me, though, is, this# is one of those key swing states.

And## neither Trump nor Haley are really -- Haley# especially -- not spending any time there.

Trump hasn't spent a dollar on ads in# the state, and this is a state that is## going to matter later.

But, right now, it's# revealing that everything is kind of a mess.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tamara Keith, Amy# Walter, nice closing thought there.

(LAUGHTER) TAMARA KEITH: You're welcome.