JOHN YANG: America's biggest trading partners are bracing for sweeping tariffs that President Trump is imposing 25 percent on imports from Canada and Mexico except 10 percent on energy products from Canada.

Tariff threats have been a bargaining chip in Mr. Trump's effort to get America's neighbors to curb the flow of migrants and drugs into the United States.

Together, Canada, Mexico and China account for nearly half of all U.S. Imports, and tariffs could mean higher prices for American consumers.

Ali Rogan explores the trickle down effects of these tariffs with Matina Stevis-Gridneff.

She's the Canadian bureau chief for the New York Times.

ALI ROGIN: Matina, thank you so much for joining us.

Mexican and Canadian officials have said they plan to impose retaliatory tariffs.

What is the effect on Americans in all this?

MATINA STEVIS-GRIDNEFF, The New York Times: I think the immediate effect, or experts say the immediate effect is going to be inflation is going to be higher prices, a disruption of several industries that are so closely linked to Canada and Mexico.

Things such as avocados or even vehicles could become much more expensive for Americans really quickly.

ALI ROGIN: You mentioned some of the consumer items, but what do we know about what sectors of the US Economy are going to be most affected by these tariffs going into effect?

MATINA STEVIS-GRIDNEFF: The Canadian government is certainly going to be imposing retaliatory tariffs in key industries in the U.S. that they think will hurt the most because they're trying to change the course of this policy.

They want to exert maximum pain.

And that could include anything from Kentucky bourbon they've told me to orange juice coming from California to dishwashers made in Wisconsin.

So they have a long list of goods that they believe that they can impose tariffs on made in the United States, and they will want to disrupt those industries in the U.S. as quickly as possible.

ALI ROGIN: And of course, the economies and the people of Canada and Mexico are going to be impacted as well.

What are the consequences for people in those two countries?

MATINA STEVIS-GRIDNEFF: Absolutely the U.S. will hurt, but Mexico and Canada will hurt more and faster.

We expect, for example, in Canada, the country will probably tip into a recession of 2.6 percent.

Experts tell us here we expect hundreds of thousands of jobs to be affected, half a million jobs just here in Ontario, where I live.

And also the availability of certain goods will be disrupted as these tariffs come into play.

The pain will be longer for those two smaller economies than it will be for the United States.

ALI ROGIN: And President Trump has threatened these tariffs as a bargaining tactic.

Is this an effective way to regulate what he says are his ultimate goals, which are limiting immigration and fentanyl trafficking?

MATINA STEVIS-GRIDNEFF: He's been very effective already on the question of borders, which was the first thing he said he was trying to extract out of these tariffs.

Both Canada and Mexico have played ball.

They have complied with Mr. Trump's demands for changes at the borders.

For example, the Mexican government has supported and assisted him in his deportation efforts this week of irregular migrants taking thousands of people into Mexico.

Canada has bolstered its border with the United States, has deployed Black Hawks drones and additional staff, and they have said that they are seeing a real drop in irregular crossings from Canada to the United States.

But the question in both Mexico and Canada is that enough to change Mr. Trump's mind?

And it's really not clear that it will be.

ALI ROGIN: These are some of the most ambitious trade moves that President Trump has made in either of his administrations.

This coming soon, in the beginning of his second term in the White House.

How are Canadian and Mexican officials receiving it in terms of how to deal with President Trump going forward for the rest of his term?

MATINA STEVIS-GRIDNEFF: We've seen a really different attitude from Canada and from Mexico.

Mexico has mostly been quite steely, a little more aggressive in its rhetoric.

But working behind the scenes, the Canadian government has tried to be a little more conciliatory, while also threatening to retaliate with its own tariffs.

But, for example, its foreign minister, Canada's foreign minister, was in Washington, D.C. up until last night trying to change the course of this policy through diplomacy.

Obviously, that didn't work.

I think one of the concerns going forward in both countries and their officials going to be, what does Mr. Trump really want from us?

How can we truly change this?

And as we escalate into practically a North American trade war, as these three countries exchange retaliatory tariffs, what is the off ramp?

How do we stop this?

And I think Mr. Trump is going to have the top hand in determining the answer to that question.

ALI ROGIN: Matina Stevis-Gridneff, Canada bureau chief for the New York Times, thank you so much for joining us.

MATINA STEVIS-GRIDNEFF: Thank you, Ali.