>> Iranian officials are arriving in Geneva ahead of tomorrow's critical talks with the U.S.

over Tehran's nuclear program during the State of the Union address last night, President Trump said Iran is working on missiles, quote, that will soon reach the United States.

Iranian officials say Trump's claims are false and believe the president is setting up a justification for military action.

Negotiations are taking place during a period of civil unrest in Iran with thousands of protesters killed by the Iranian government.

Joining us to talk about all that and more are Jacqueline Safer, author and Iranian American commentator and a native of Tehran.

Either he might sure Iif journalism and Middle Eastern studies professor at Northwestern and author of Social Media, Religious Authority and the Arab Gulf Crisis.

Robert Pape, political science professor at the University of Chicago.

He is the founding director of the Chicago Project on Security and threats via Zoom, Richard Porter and attorney and longtime member of the Republican National Committee.

He was a White House adviser to President George HW Bush and Vice President Dan Quayle.

Thank you all for being here.

We appreciate your time.

Jacqueline Sapor, as we just mentioned, headlines for weeks about massive anti-government protest in Iran and harsh government response.

What exactly do we know about the situation on the ground right now about the protests in the >> Well, they've been many protests in Iran.

Basically they're seeking for new team and a normal life, not ideology.

Just a few days ago, February 21st and 22nd.

And you students from 3 universities clashed with anti protest.

Police.

So far.

You know, this regime has always had protests from the beginning of its inception.

The very first protest was March.

It's 1979 when I was a high school senior into her on and I watched thousands of women go to the streets to protest the panda to up and even then they were assaulted, verbally assaulted and some were attacked by nice and broken glass come to current situation.

In 2009, there were protests against the rig.

It presidential election that people chanted.

Where is my vote?

Then?

Of course we had I was here on this program in a January of 2020.

And I mentioned that a few months before November of 2019, were protests on fuel charges.

1500 killed.

Then we know the protests of 2022 I mean, he and his job and we come to today.

But as the protests today are different for a few reasons.

First, they are.

Massive pored over the country and they are now chanting death to the dictator.

So they want they want the regime to fall.

Second is the use of technology today.

There's facial recognition.

The phone tracking drones so that the fear and the danger is not only the streets is going to when you go home because they can come and arrest you fair.

So it's quite different nowadays.

of course, the amount of people being killed.

Even President Trump mentioned the fact 2000 killed that could be more.

Yeah.

I mean, how about that?

Ibrahim up a Sharif.

You know, the president saying 32,000 human rights activists news agency says 7,000 the government, just 3,000 certainly significant number.

In any case.

>> But you run a saying President Trump's comments around these protests says is misinformation.

Do you think there's any truth to that?

Well, I think there's a lot of certain that the 32,000 is excessive, even by independent.

>> Authorities who are trying to look at the numbers.

But again, when we look at the numbers like this, we're looking at the case building.

And so the higher the number the more need there is for a nice is to be involved in Iran.

So I think we need to look at the messaging of statistics and messaging about why we should go into Iran's very particular place for last 20 years.

Iran has been a week away from having nuclear weapon.

And so that that threat itself this season be weaponized is a reason to get into the regime to get into the country and for its resources and let's not play games.

Iran has a lot of oil and it is also powerful military country regionally speaking.

And so I mean, the protest and to make a case against nyces going into Iran does not mean you're supporting the regime there at We're talking about 2 different things different conversations altogether.

But I think the United States is ready employees to do the same mistake that did with Iraq pouring trillions of dollars into genocide in Iraq.

As many people have called it.

That ultimately failed.

Well, how about that Robert Pape?

You know, there were, of course, those targeted strikes in July on the Fordo nuclear facility.

>> But, you know, you've written your substack that the U.S.

is falling into a trap that will lead to military escalation.

Do you see any way to break that cycle?

Well, it's important for the listeners know that I studied every year campaign since World War One, I published a major book bombing to win.

It still required reading by the U.S.

Air Force.

I've talked for the U.S.

Air Force.

>> not just an academic who's been behind the scenes.

I've advised every White House since 9 to 11.

Not this one yet, but that just to directly answer your question, we're falling into what I call the smart bomb trap again, we fell into that trap in 2003 was shock and awe.

Well, many of your listeners and viewers will remember that.

>> And then that led to terrorism, a civil war and 20 years of a forever war.

Why did we going to build democracy?

There was lots of pro-democracy movement.

I am very pro democracy of the way to build democracy is not the barrel of a gun.

It's not by dropping bombs because what happens when you drop those bombs is they do destroy the targets.

That's the trapped in the smart bomb trap.

You can be 100% tactically successful and strategically fail.

And that's what happened last.

will remember when President Trump said we obliterated the nuclear program in Iran no week what craters in dirt and concrete.

That's what we did with the smart bombs.

And just in last night you heard he's worried Iran is going to get a bomb.

Again.

He's admitting failure.

That is the normal cycle and of the smart bomb trap stage.

One of the smart bomb trap was last June.

We are now about to go into stage 2.

Hopefully we won't.

But if we do, this will be a much more difficult stage to get out.

We're about to cross the threshold of the smart bomb trap, which is not and then going to be up to us anymore.

Whether we can just walk away.

I may add something.

>> This is a very dangerous machine.

It's not like maderas Venezuela that he was a cartel criminal cartel.

This is a regime based ideological reishi based on concept a factory or Islamic jurisprudence with the Supreme leader.

And since inception of the resolution, they They have welcomed war isolation and sanctions.

For example, 1980, there were Iran Iraq war happened September of 1980, said war could in 1982.

With anybody.

Chanel Shaq, but then Supreme Leader Khomeini purposely wanted to extend the war, which he did for another 6 years.

And she is right in a broader sense because the history air power in trying to topple regimes.

>> Shows that radical wise is the regime.

We all think.

Oh, sure.

Let's killed, use their their bad and they'll be replaced by somebody better.

Almost always.

It's the opposite.

If you just think of to die of week, helped kill the Chechen leader, do die of in 1996 April 1996, thinking he was a bad guy.

And what did we get in his place as the of who's the guy who did the suicide attacks?

>> That went on for years inside of Chechnya.

If Hamas leaders, we've killed Hamas leader after Hamas leader after Hamas leader or help the Israelis do and what we end up with more radical wise, bad people taking over.

This is the danger of morning on trial.

And I want to get to Richard Porter in this conversation as well.

You know, the president spent just a few minutes on Iran during last night's State of the Union.

>> We haven't necessarily heard quite as many of the detailed plans leading up to potential war, perhaps the way we did in Iraq or Afghanistan.

What do you make of the potential for a strike against Iran?

Well, I think the the risk here and the and the president's possible strategies can be different in both Afghanistan and Iraq.

>> It's probably more akin to what he did against.

maybe what Clinton did in Serbia.

And but it may be hard.

But in terms of what the Trump himself did in Venezuela with Maduro, I think that there is no taste in the Republican administration for boots on the ground and then extended or massive way in Iran.

I think in the wake of the wreck in Afghanistan, the president has promised no more far away forever wars.

And I think that would severely damaged his standing politically if he were to launch a war that looks and smells like the Iraq war.

So, Robert, I don't think that's a risk.

because he running out she will effective.

And we do see that I is right.

I mean, its often the case, you need to have more than just bombs coming from the sky to change the regime to change behavior and that sort of thing.

One of things the strategy that the Trump administration used in Venezuela was to identify leaders down a level that they thought that would be responsive to United States concerns and certainly not in the Venezuela case.

Concerns were around drugs and political prisoners and so forth.

if extent that there is some, you know, I hate to use the word moderate because we know there are many that was mistake the Reagan made but dealing with Iran.

But if there is some other level down a level or 2 if they kill Khamenei and some of the other leaders of the IRGC and otherwise they might get to someone who they can work with, who will then assure the West to show the world that Iran will focus on a run and not be seeking to built the bomb.

I don't think that there's going to be invasion of Iran.

not predicting an invasion.

That's not what's going to happen.

>> What's going to happen is we're and you can hear Trump is looking for an off-ramp and the off-ramp is over.

Just go into a little strike.

Walk away.

The problem is we are encouraging Iran to accelerate its movement to a nuclear weapon.

And so if we do this kind of small strike and it's only going to accelerate this even more and will become even more fearful a few months from now.

So what we are facing is the smart bomb trap where every time we get mesmerized by this idea of tactical success.

We're digging hole deeper and we are encouraging the bad people to do things worse and what's worse, the nuclear weapon?

Well, and there's also, you know, another round of peace talks scheduled in Geneva tomorrow Richard Porter.

Back to you for a moment.

>> You know, we've heard cut back and forth from Iranian leaders, some of them calling out President's lies, but also saying that they'll do what it takes to get a nuclear deal.

Do you think negotiations could still be fruitful here?

>> Well, I think that that's the hope Ronald Reagan said of the Soviet Union trust but verify.

I think with the Ron you have to distrust and verify.

I don't think there's any chance.

>> Iran be telling the truth.

I just you it's not who they are.

If they wanted peace, they could have If you know, they've been their pursuit of the of the nuclear bomb is disconnected from an independent of whatever the United States does, that the there's been kind of a Adam and coal focus and Iran.

It's a revolutionary regime.

They want to spread the revolution.

They want world domination.

That's what they are.

That's what they You know, we have to get them to change.

Their strategy very unlikely that that's going to be the case.

And for that to occur, they cast personnel change.

I think some people have to die.

And if the new people that are going to built the leaders Iran that's the only way you see a change in Iran.

No, I do think that this is buying time for the U.S.

to pull its forces to build the defensive missile sites and so forth.

The rounds are more vulnerable facilities to move people out of the region and get ourselves prepared for what's going to be much rougher engagement that Venezuela was.

I think that was it.

agree with that comment.

I saw that China's moves ship missiles that are.

So, you know, look, I think it's a likely the talks will succeed.

Then Trump would be thrilled if they did.

He's established real credibility by his willingness to use force and use it effectively both in Iran and Venezuela.

So we'll I think it's unlikely to be successful evening.

>> Yeah, just a couple comments.

The use total rising Iran as being dishonest.

Have a problem with the truth.

And also world domination.

These are words of propagandist.

And I think that we need to avoid that.

Iran had a deal with the Obama administration.

They're willing to do it and they would give up their their nuclear ambitions if the sanctions are lifted and they are not no longer a world pariah.

And so their economy can can be more robust.

And so I think what I want one of the things that as a teacher of professor Postcolonial studies, some of the things that we're looking at, the United States posture toward Middle East and South America has colonial appetite involved with it.

mean, we're looking America bombing harming the global south.

They're not doing this in Norway, Sweden or whatever.

So let's let's week live with their eyes open little bit.

Let's look at the patterns that we're seeing here.

This is a colonial app.

Tyre, certainly surfacing to take you know, whatever that to to make secure a region from what I mean, the firm will freeze rent is is that was going to drive your policy.

Is that the whole policy?

>> If I do say why Saudi Arabia been worried about Iran, it isn't just the idea.

This is colonial.

That's nonsense.

This is this is a regime threatening its really its its neighbors.

It.

But it is important trouble for the Saudis.

>> Excuse me, as a person who lived in the Arab girl for 18 years.

What you're saying right now, especially untrue.

The Saudis have come closer to Iran.

The Qataris have come closer to Iran.

Rockies have come closer to Iran.

So what you're looking at is absolute his point of view that is no longer in effect.

That may be that work.

And Reagan Times but not now.

The real problem is not wrong.

It's whether we would take yes for an answer.

>> So President Trump didn't take yes for an answer with the he's the one who ripped it up.

And 2018 and go back to Saddam Hussein in 2003.

So did everything possible to turn over every site possible that we asked, including everything the CIA said over 400 sites inspected by the UN.

And you know what?

We couldn't take?

Yes for an answer.

How are we going to take?

Yes for an answer here unless we actually control the country.

Are we just going to trust that somehow out of there is no bomb making material?

I think this is the problem with the smart bomb trap.

We've gone down a road and this is exactly the fear that's driving us forward.

Not the reality.

We just got about 20 seconds.

he wants Foreign Minister head chief has said he too, did mistress these negotiations.

>> And Steve, which cuff invite to the Middle East has said why doesn't doesn't don't to on Kathy today because of all Navy presence there.

But this will talk about new pair issues.

This machine has about 2000 but is Stickney south and people don't want this vision is beyond that and they may harm.

They have blocked 3 to 4 That's a problem, But and courage to the Supreme has dedicated anybody.

Tiny has a he's targeted to.

There is successor, pace, not as a supreme leader, but this week she will fight to the last to survive.

Unfortunately, that's where we'll have to leave it much more we can say on this