>> SATURDAY MARKED THE 3RD ANNIVERSARY OF THE ASSAULT ON THE U.S. CAPITOL BY SUPPORTERS OF FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP WITH TRUMP, THE OVERWHELMING FAVORITE TO GET THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION ONCE AGAIN, PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN IS BEGINNING TO FOCUS HIS ATTACKS ON HIS PRESUMED OPPONENT IN A SPEECH FRIDAY FROM VALLEY FORGE, PENNSYLVANIA.

BIDEN PORTRAYED TRUMP AS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO AMERICAN DEMOCRACY AND MAKE CLEAR THAT IN HIS MIND, THE ELECTORAL STAKES COULD NOT BE HIGHER.

>> THIS IS NOT RHETORICAL ACADEMIC OR HYPOTHETICAL.

MORE THAN A MOCK RUSS IS STILL AMERICA'S SACRED CAUSE IS THE MOST URGENT QUESTION OF OUR TIME.

THAT'S WHAT THE 2024 ELECTION IS ALL ABOUT.

>> JOINING US NOW WITH MORE IS ROBERT PAPE, POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO, TERRORISM SPECIALIST AND THE FOUNDING DIRECTOR OF THE CHICAGO PROJECT ON SECURITY AND THREATS.

ROBERT, WELCOME BACK.

THANKS FOR JOINING US.

THANKS FOR HAVING SO, OF COURSE, SINCE THE ATTACKS ON THE CAPITAL, YOU AND YOUR TEAM, YOU ALL BEEN WORKING TO TRACK THE THREAT OF DOMESTIC POLITICAL VIOLENCE THROUGH YOUR DANGEROUS TO DEMOCRACY SURVEY.

HOW WOULD YOU ASSESS THE LEVEL OF THE THREAT TODAY AND WHAT'S BEEN THE WE ARE A TENDER BOX OF THE COUNTRY.

THERE ARE LITERALLY MILLIONS AND MILLIONS OF AMERICANS WHO ARE WILLING >> TO USE FOR SAY THEY'RE WILLING TO USE FORCE IN SUPPORT THE USE OF FORCE TO ACHIEVE POLITICAL GOALS IF THEY CAN TO ACHIEVE THEM THROUGH THE BALLOT BOX.

THAT IS A REALLY STRIKING PHENOMENON.

THERE'S A LARGE GROUP ON THE RIGHT.

YOU CAN CALL THEM THE MAG OF THE VIOLENT MAGER RIGHT.

AND THE PROBLEM WITH THE RIGHT ISN'T JUST THESE VIOLENT SENTIMENTS ON THE RIGHT.

IT'S THAT THERE'S A LEADER DONALD TRUMP HIMSELF WHO'S DEMONSTRATED A UNIQUE WILLINGNESS AND CAPACITY TO MOBILIZE LARGE FOLKS IN THE MAINSTREAM TO SUPPORT THE USE OF VIOLENCE FOR HIS GOALS GO THERE ARE SIMILAR.

I WOULD SETTLEMENTS ON THE LEFT.

WE HAVE MILLIONS OF AMERICANS WHO ARE VIOLENTLY OPPOSED TO THE RETURN OF DONALD TRUMP WHO ARE VIOLENTLY IN FAVOR OF RESTORING ABORTION RIGHTS.

BUT WE DON'T HAVE A SIMILAR READER ON THE LEFT THAT ACTUALLY STOKING THOSE FLAMES, ENCOURAGING THAT VIOLENCE.

AND SO ALTHOUGH WE ARE A TINDERBOX OF THE COUNTRY, THE MAIN PROBLEMS WE'RE FACING OVER THE NEXT SAY 12 MONTHS ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE ON THE RIGHT.

>> YOU SAY THAT THIS IS A STRIKING PHENOMENON.

IS THIS LEVEL OF, YOU KNOW, SUPPORT FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE, ACTUAL VIOLENT SAY, FOLKS, ARE THEY ADMIT TO BEING WILLING TO USE FORCE WHERE THOSE SAME FOLKS KIND OF QUIET ABOUT THEIR THEIR WILLINGNESS TO USE FORCE ONCE UPON A TIME.

AND NOW IT'S OK TO SAY OUT LOUD.

>> WHAT I'VE FOR 30 YEARS, I HAVE STUDIED POLITICAL VIOLENCE AROUND THE WORLD.

WHAT'S STRIKING IS THE MAINSTREAM NATURE OF THE SUPPORT FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN THE UNITED STATES.

THIS STARTS WITH JANUARY 6 ON JANUARY 6.

WE NOW HAVE OVER 1100 PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN PROSECUTED FOR CRIMES RELATED TO JANUARY 6, NEARLY 50% OF THOSE INDIVIDUALS ARE DOCTORS, LAWYERS, ARCHITECTS, THEY ARE BUSINESS OWNERS.

THEIR EXECUTIVES IN CORPORATIONS, CORPORATIONS, INCLUDING IN SCHOMBERG HERE.

BASICALLY MIDDLE-CLASS FOLKS IN ELMHURST HERE IN CHICAGO.

WHAT'S REALLY STRIKING IS THAT WE'RE SEEING THE SUPPORT FOR VIOLENCE IN THE MAINSTREAM AND EVEN AMONG AFFLUENT SEGMENTS THE COUNTRY.

AND THAT IS NOT SOMETHING THAT'S NORMAL.

NORMALLY WE WOULD EXPECT VIOLENCE TO BE WITH FOLKS WHOM I THINK VERY LITTLE TO LOSE.

THESE FOLKS HAVE A LOT TO LOSE.

WELL, AND YOU ARGUE, YOU KNOW THAT THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF FOCUS ON THE FRINGE ELEMENTS, THE PROUD BOYS, THE OATH KEEPERS AND THE BUT YOU SAY THAT THAT IS NOT THE COMPLETE PICTURE.

>> AND AS YOU JUST REFERENCED, YOUR RESEARCH TELLS YOU MORE ABOUT THE TYPES OF PEOPLE WHO WERE AT THE CAPITOL COMMITTING THAT ASSAULT 3 YEARS AGO.

IT WAS VERY EASY FOR THE NEWS MEDIA TO FOCUS ON THE QANON SCHOEMAN.

IT WAS VERY EASY TO FOCUS OATH, KEEPER OR PROUD BOYS.

SOME OF THEM ARE ACTUALLY WEARING KIND OF UNIFORM.

SO YOU ACTUALLY PICK THEM OUT.

>> WHAT WE HAVE LEARNED IN THE LAST 3 YEARS IS THAT THOSE THAT WAS ACTUALLY THE MINOR PART OF THE INSURRECTION.

ONLY 12% OF THE INDIVIDUALS WHO INVADED THE CAPITOL ON JANUARY 6 WERE MEMBERS OF THE PROUD BOYS.

PORCO'S KEEPERS.

NEARLY 90% WERE NOT.

THEY WERE TRUMP SUPPORTERS BASICALLY ORDINARY TRUMP SUPPORTERS COMING FROM ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND MOSTLY FROM URBAN AREAS OR SUBURBAN AREAS, NOT FROM RURAL AMERICA.

SO WE TEND TO I CAN PUT IT.

CRUDELY OF TRUMP SUPPORTERS AS REDNECKS OR IN PICKUP TRUCKS IN RURAL AREAS.

THAT'S NOT THE PROFILE OF THE TRUMP SUPPORTERS WHO INVADED THE CAPITOL ON JANUARY 6.

AND THAT'S WHAT'S SO SPECIAL AND SO DIFFICULT FOR US TO GET OUR ARMS WRAPPED AROUND BECAUSE I THINK IT'S COMFORTABLE FOR US TO THINK THAT THE FINAL FOLKS ARE JUST THESE FRINGES.

IT'S SUPPOSED TO FOLKS WHO COULD JUST BE THAT INSURRECTIONISTS NEXT STORE.

>> IS TRUMP'S RHETORIC ABOUT THE ELECTION.

OF COURSE, YOU KNOW WHAT OUT IN THE SO-CALLED BIG LIE AND THAT THE ELECTION WAS SAYS THE MAIN SOURCE OF WHAT'S SORT OF DRIVING THIS LEVEL OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE OR IS THAT A SYMPTOM OF SOMETHING ACTUALLY MUCH DEEPER?

I WOULD SAY THAT THERE ARE BOTH DEEP SOURCES AND NEAR-TERM SOURCES AND THESE ARE NOT CAUSE.

THEY KIND OF FIT TOGETHER.

WHAT WE'RE SEEING IN OUR STUDIES THE SUPPORTERS OF TRUMP ON JANUARY 6 AND ALSO IN OUR NATIONAL SURVEYS IS THE VIOLENCE SUPPORT SURROUNDING DONALD TRUMP SEEMS TO GO TO THE FEAR OF THE GREAT REPLACEMENT.

THE IDEA THAT THERE IS DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE HAPPENING IN THE COUNTRY, BUT IT'S MALICIOUSLY OCCURRING.

AND THIS IS WHERE TRUMP'S RHETORIC COMES OUT BECAUSE WHAT TRUMP IS EXPLAINING AND OTHERS.

TUCKER CARLSON, STEVE BANNON, A WHOLE ARMY ON HIS SIDE ARE ARGUING IS THAT THIS DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IS NOT HAPPENING SPONTANEOUSLY.

IT'S HAPPENING MALICIOUSLY AND WISH US PURPOSE TO ESSENTIALLY SUBJUGATE A PART OF THE POPULATION.

WELL, IF YOU START TO TELL FOLKS THEY'RE GOING TO BE SUBJUGATED THEIR VICTIMS.

THIS PRODUCES A VERY DIFFERENT REACTION AMONG PEOPLE.

AND THAT'S WHY YOU ARE SEEING A LARGE AMOUNT OF NOT JUST SUPPORT FOR TRUMP AT THE BALLOT BOX, BUT REALLY DEDICATED AND VIOLENCE SUPPORT FOR TRUMP.

YOU KNOW, AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN THE IS IT INEVITABLE THAT WE WILL SEE SORT OR RISE IN THIS THREAT?

NO, I THINK THAT THIS WOULD BE EASY FOR THE PUBLIC THING.

THE PUBLIC, I THINK IS COMFORTABLE THINKING THE THREAT IS EITHER VERY HIGH OR VERY LOW PERMANENTLY WHEN, IN FACT, THE POLITICAL PROSPECTS OF TRUMP WILL HAVE A LOT TO DO WITH THE LEVEL OF THE VIOLENT THREAT.

>> SO LONG AS TRUMP IS GAINING AT THE BALLOT BOX, HE'S GOT VERY LITTLE TO GAIN POLITICALLY BY ORCHESTRATING HIS FOLLOWERS TO DO ANY VIOLENCE.

AND WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST YEARS WITH THE INDICTMENTS AND NOW THE DISCUSSION OF THE 14TH AMENDMENT.

TRUMP IS SORRY.

TRUMP IS SOARING.

SO THERE COULD BE A BIG CHANGE.

HOWEVER, WHEN TRUMP NO LONGER IS SOARING, IS FALLING BEHIND AND MAYBE LOSES.

THOSE ARE THE CONDITIONS UNDER WHICH JUST LIKE ON JANUARY 6, TRUMP MAY RUN OUT OF POLITICAL OPTIONS TO GET AHEAD AND MAY REALIZE THAT VIOLENCE IS HIS ONLY MEANS WHICH HE WENT TO BEFORE SORT OF A SEESAW TRUMP'S NOT DOING SO WELL THAT THREAT OF VIOLENCE LIKELY TO BE HEARTENED X ONE WAY TO PUT IT A SEESAW, NOT A PERMANENT STATE OF EITHER RISING OR FALLING.

>> THIS IS WHY IT'S I THINK, CHALLENGING FOR POLITICIANS, FOR THE PUBLIC, FOR COMMUNITY LEADERS TO UNDERSTAND THE POLITICAL VIOLENCE BECAUSE I THINK IT'S EASIER IF WE THINK OF IT AS SIMPLY A WIN HERE PHENOMENON AS OPPOSED TO SOMETHING THAT COULD CHANGE IN THE PERIOD OF JUST 2 OR 3 WEEKS.

AN INTERESTING FACT, FOR INSTANCE, IS THAT SMALL NUMBERS OF FOLKS JANUARY 6 WHO ARE OATH KEEPERS AND PROUD BOYS, YOU KNOW, WHEN THEY JOINED THE FOLKS WHO ACTUALLY INVADED THE CAPITOL, MILITIA GROUPS JUST 2 MONTHS BEFORE JANUARY 6.

THESE WERE NOT MEMBERS OF THE OATH KEEPERS AND PROUD BOYS FOR YEARS AND YEARS AND YEARS LIKE SOMETHING THEY FOR NOW THE ELECTION AFTER THE ELECTION ELECTION HAPPENED, TRUMP IS EXPLAINING TO HIS BOSS.

THEY HAD WAS SIGNED UP AND THEY SIGNED UP AND OTHERS WHO DIDN'T SIGN UP WERE ALSO JUST AS VIOLENT.

ALL RIGHT.

SO A LOT TO TALK ABOUT, BUT WE'RE OUT OF TIME.

ROBERT PAPE, UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO, THANKS AGAIN FOR JOINING US.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH.