Welcome to Party Politics where we prepare you for your next political conversation.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina, political science professor at the University of Houston.

And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus also a political science professor here at the University of Houston.

Thanks for hanging out and talking politics with us.

We are in the lead up to the primary, Jeronimo, Texas, is voting.

Early voting has started.

If you haven't voted and you plan to vote in the primary, get out there and do it earlier is better.

We found a yes, although I'm not sure you'll have much competition.

We'll talk about turnout and we'll talk about all the sort of big picture things next week.

But this week we're going to focus in the deep on some key races here in Houston and Harris County, because there are some pretty interesting things.

yeah.

So we'll get a sense of how that's going to shake out, at least sort of our interpretation of the matter of the the.

World that so far giving and giving and giving.

It's impossible to get away from it.

And I think a lot of politicians are finding that, including this week, Donald Trump, who's found out, I guess, hard way that some of these legal kind of complications are going to catch up to him pretty quickly.

And so we'll talk about exactly what happened this week, but also the political implications right to it and some of the things he said this last week that have been a kind of an interesting window into kind of his belief about what's going to happen in 2024.

But let's start with the fact that the Hush money trial that he's involved in has been actually scheduled to go ahead starting on May on March 25th.

New York judge has effectively rejected demands for delays and has decided to push this forward.

This will be a trial that is going to take place in New York.

It will be about six weeks long.

It's kind of a long time that'll cross over a bunch of primaries.

yeah.

And so this is the first criminal trial for a former president in history.

We've talked a lot about the former president's legal problems, but that's not all, Jeronimo.

This week, a federal judge or sorry, the judge ordered the president, former president, to fork over about 355.

That's it.

Million dollars in his fortune plus interest.

This is because of an inaccurate reporting about the financial health of the former president's company.

The judge also placed the company under an independent monitoring sort of process, imposed a two year ban on the former president's sons, Eric and Donald Trump, Jr. And also basically kind of put some of their hamstrings in the trump organization's ability to function.

Okay, so that's two big basic tough legal losses for the president this week.

What do you make of how this is going to play out in 2024?

Well, I mean, the president has four criminal cases.

Yeah, 91 felonies counts.

Yeah, right.

Yeah.

So that's you know, it's a lot one too many.

But you're saying 90 would be like people would be like, that's okay.

Yeah.

91.

So you need not I think you know, politically, you know, obviously creates a two pronged effect.

Right.

Okay.

Yeah.

I see.

I like that analysis My my word of the week.

Two pronged So first of all, you know, within his core base, you know, it helps him a lot, right?

Every time that he goes to court and every time that he talks about these trials, you know, he's popular amongst, you know, his core base just jumps off the rule.

Yeah.

So that's all good news for him right on the other side.

Right.

It has the same or the negative effect, right?

The opposite effect.

Yes.

And that creates sad within, you know, those that do not support President Trump within the Democratic Party and within the Republican Party and within independents, it has a negative effect.

Yeah.

So the big question here for the general election, if he gets nominated by the Republican Party, I'm still, you know.

So holding out I.

Mean, I'm not holding out.

I just want to see competition.

Okay, That's it.

Yeah.

It's the free market of ideas.

That's democracy.

Sure.

Sure.

So that's what I want to see.

A good democratic competition.

Gotcha.

Yeah.

Well, Nikki Haley is weak, so she's hanging on.

yeah.

She had a big announcement.

People were like, she's dropping out.

She didn't drop out.

She she's.

She's doubling down on that and increasing, you know, to that effect.

Right.

And that to that effect, she's increasing her rhetoric and she's increasing the tone of the attacks.

That's a good point.

So we're going to see that.

So at the end, what I'm trying to say is that we're going to see how deep those situations go.

And as we get into these four criminal cases, you know, things are going to get more complicated and more complicated and more complicated.

So we're going to see, you know, that effect.

The question is how big it's going to be with Trump's supporters and how he's going to be we the people that do not necessarily support former President Trump.

Yeah, it's a really good point.

A couple of things worth noting.

I think number one is that his political power is not just used for his own good, but also for the good of other people he's endorsing.

Remember, there are a bunch of Republicans down ballot who are being endorsed by Trump, many of them in Texas, and they're fighting out like with establishment Republicans or incumbent Republicans, to try to win.

And so that might be of interest to to note, too, that there is political kind of you know, Bettina is a little bit more tarnished than it was because of the kind of combination and, you know, kind of compilation of all of these different legal problems.

And it could be an issue for him.

The other thing I wanted to note is that this is a cash problem, too, right?

Like the Trump Organization's one issue, right.

That their inability to, you know, sort of act as they would have otherwise.

And but this is going to be a real cash kind of problem for the former president, right?

This is a lot of money.

In fact, looking at the actual total bill that he would owe in addition to interest and all the other kind of penalties, it's almost half a billion dollars.

That's more money than he probably has.

And no one really knows exactly how much, but that's more money than he probably has.

The other part of this is that a lot of the money they're raising for the campaign is going towards his legal defense.

So Joe Biden this week put up big numbers in terms of fundraising and Trump is lagging behind that, not by a lot, but by enough that you subtract out the money they're spending on legal bills.

It could be a real liability for them.

So, remember, presidential races are about the long haul, right?

You've got to be ready for this marathon.

And if you can't make it past the first, you know, mile and you run out of money, that's a real issue.

Yeah.

So I think that's a concern.

The other thing is I want to say that, like you make this kind of comment, I think it's right about the way that the Republicans view this.

And certainly Republicans view his legal problems differently than the general public does.

But I think it's also the case that you're going to find that like in some swing states, polling suggested that there are a lot of people, 50% would refuse to vote for Trump if there was a criminal conviction.

So that's really the key is the criminal conviction.

But most people also want to see this done by the election.

They want to know like definitively what is the outcome.

I'm not sure we'll have that, but we're certainly going to see him fight on through this.

absolutely.

But again, is one of the you know, it's going to be very interesting and still you have a lot of people at play, right?

You have Biden, you have Nikki Haley, Right.

And you have, you know, within the Civil War, within the Republican Party, you still have powerful people that do not support President Trump.

Yeah.

And once again, we'll see.

We'll see.

Well, you know, one way.

One way to heal a party is through a vice presidential pick.

That's often what like a nominee will do to try to bring the party together.

The former president, like, kind of hinted at his shortlist for VP.

Right.

I talked about Vivek Ramaswami.

Talked about Ron DeSantis.

He talked about Kristi Noem, who's the governor of South Dakota.

So there are a couple of options there that he's seemingly considering.

Tim Scott was another person they become friendly of late.

Yes.

What do you think about his list and whether or not there's a strategy in terms of picking one or the other of those people?

Well, I mean, he said it right And he said that basically the VP doesn't matter what matters, he's well.

But he's still mad at Mike Pence for mattering.

So that's a really something.

No, that's true.

No, but that's true.

But I don't know.

I mean, we're going to see.

Yeah.

And I think that his pick is going to be determined in terms of who or what part of the general electorate he wants to get.

Interesting.

Yeah.

So like, yeah.

You know, Yeah, it's a good question And I would have this debate I'm sure when he gets closer to making this pick, assuming he gives us some heads up, which I don't think he will, but I think he'll tweeted out on a whim.

Right.

Or social.

Well, they need to do that.

Whatever you call.

Them, materials and all that kind of stuff.

But, you know, nowadays with technology.

Yeah, but you just feel like.

You know big Trump and little whatever, right?

The status quo, right?

So the VP maybe doesn't matter that much, but speaking of Trump headlining things, he was at Sneaker Con this week.

Did you know the former president, a sneaker head like he apparently is producing through licensing to of his name to this other company to make these shoes that are 400 bucks the never surrender shoes they're bright gold with an American flag on it, as you might expect from Trump.

What do you think about this and when are you going to sport these bad boys?

Because I'm really looking forward to seeing you have them on.

Well, it's a little bit expensive for my taste.

399 And, you know, they're sold out, right?

They just had a thousand pairs.

They have been sold out.

Yeah.

I think within seconds.

And they had very strict rules.

Only three pairs per costumer.

yeah.

Yeah.

I went to the website and see everything.

And in addition they have colognes and perfumes, and perfumes for 99 bucks.

Okay.

Not a bad deal for.

Quality Victory 47.

So it's called.

That's great if you want to, you know, smell good or whatnot.

Smell like smell like Trump.

Yeah.

So, you know, it's one of those things that it's like, wait, what.

Is such a strange marketing, right?

I mean, Trump steaks, Trump wine, The Trump properties is sort of the where they made their money, correct.

And now things are branching out.

I mean, I think that when he went to Sneaker Con, you know, he was met with both loud boos but also cheers, right?

Yeah.

And I think that's indication of how, you know, Trump is look within the general public.

Yeah.

You have people booing at him and then people cheering at him.

And that's you know, he's very.

Polarizing right.

Now, polarizing figure.

But the question and I was trying to think of, you know, you know, any other instance in Europe, presidents call it that.

It's a riveting topic.

Did super deep and super interesting.

It's you know, has ever, ever happened to have, you know, a potential nominee run for the presidency is you know.

Is marketed in the.

Sort of leather shoes and sells sneakers.

You know, it's a great question.

It's not that common.

T Roosevelt did, right?

Teddy Definitely.

It was pretty like, I think, sort of visible from that image perspective.

But he had been out of the office right before, right?

And so there's certainly some of that.

Yeah, it's interesting.

It's a really good question.

But the short answer is no.

Okay, I've never seen it kind of go this far.

But I do think that there's like room for this in politics, right?

People would really like to kind of embrace all these different elements of it.

And I love to collect political stuff.

I know.

I'm told that's.

Why I wanted.

Yeah, yeah, I know.

Thats why I wanted to get the sneakers.

to give to you for.

400 bucks.

A little step for kind of a collectors thing.

But there but it's fun.

And I think, you know, for people who really want to embrace that, then it's certainly fun.

And so I like this about our politics, right?

So it's definitely useful.

But I saw some lot of people like trolling the former president and the shoes.

Right.

One of my favorites was that somebody said they tried to Dunkin them, but all it could do was draw charges.

So I guess it's a dad ish joke.

But yeah, anyway, I think it's strange but fun and maybe we can leave it at that.

All right, let's leave it at that.

But let's talk taxes, because obviously there's a lot going on.

We're in the middle of voting, so people are primed to think about that.

This is Party Politics.

I'm Brandon.

This is Jeronimo.

We are talking about primaries.

So lots of interesting races here locally.

And that's kind of where we hang our hat.

Let's talk first about Sheila Jackson Lee's district.

This is Congressional District 18.

The representative is being challenged by former city council member Amanda Edwards.

This has turned into a pretty serious race.

Remember, Sheila Jackson Lee runs for mayor.

She loses that fairly badly.

And all indications were that like turnout in her district inside the city limits was not great.

It was fairly lackluster.

And it could just be a reflection of the fact that it was a different race.

She was running for mayor, weren't comfortable with her running for it.

She didn't run a great campaign.

She didn't raise as much money as she could have.

The messaging was a little blurry.

It's a long way of saying she didn't ran again campaign for that.

Do you think that that is has spillover effect in her race for now, again, running for 18?

Well, I think so, because, first of all, Amanda Edwards, while Sheila Jackson Lee was campaigning for the city, she was campaigning for congressional District 18.

So she has been added, she has support.

She has, you know, significant fundraising numbers.

And I think she has one run a very interesting campaign in the sense of, you know, now is it time for new leadership?

Yeah, it's time to, you know, pass the baton and that's it.

You know, So that is the interesting part, right?

The other part in terms of, you know, what would happen, thinking about the, you know, the consequences of who wins and who loses.

You know, if Amanda Edwards wins ride.

I mean, it's going to be very interesting because, you know, that's a new generation, right?

And the Democratic Party needs new blood within the party as well as the Republican Party.

They need new blood in order to have, you know, starting to climb, you know, the echelons of power.

That's one even Sheila Jackson Lee.

Well wins.

You maintain seniority rights.

One of the most senior members of Congress, very important positions.

And, you know, the balance of power is also extremely important.

Yeah.

So I think there is, you know, pros and cons.

Yeah.

But he's going to be a tough race no matter what.

Yeah, that's a heard.

Sheila Jackson Lee has made the case that experience counts in this and that's a subtle reminder that she has long relationships in this district.

Right.

You can't look at a picture of people in the district without her in it.

Right.

And that shows that she's visible.

She's extremely connected, and that's what people like about her.

So I don't think that's changed much.

But obviously, the contest here does present a kind of serious contrast.

And it's really, for me, kind of a question about like exactly who can get their coalition now, You know, Jackson Lee has always been successful getting her votes out, but she never really had a serious challenge like this.

So this is going to be a real test of her organization.

And with turnout, probably my guess is sort of lackluster.

I don't know that the ability for Amanda Edwards to kind of overcome that hurdle is going to be there.

But this is still a race is going to be fought out on the ground, probably all the way through election Day.

yeah.

We will see.

I think Edwards presents a really clear and compelling message.

And it's hard to to dispute the fact that a lot of members of Congress have been there for a very long time.

So there's a younger generation, like you say, that really wants to see that change.

But that's really hard when they don't come out and vote in bigger numbers.

So that's the real difference.

And so that has to change in order for, I think, some of these younger candidates to really win.

I think the same is happening in House District 142.

This is Representative Shawn Thierry.

She is running against labor organizer Lauren Ashley Simmons, who's been very well funded by several Democratic members, including several sitting House members.

The influential Houston LGBTQ plus caucus.

The reason that this is a race is because Shawn Thierry, while in the one of the prior legislative sessions, supported Senate Bill 14, which would bar gender transitioning care for children and teens, she was very vocal about this on the House floor.

Republicans came to her aid saying she's voting her district in her conscience.

People in her district, specially Democrats, said she's betrayed us.

Yeah, this is a tough race because a lot of Democrats are in a similar position.

How Harold Dutton actually is is very similar position to this.

That's another kind of somewhat competitive race.

This race is probably more competitive because there's money behind.

yeah.

So Simmons has got a lot of support.

There was also a fairly ugly affair in the Chronicle endorsement meeting.

After a kind of back and forth, Thierry interrupted Simmons, who was talking about how she had the support of several of Thierrys colleagu and Thierry made a comment that she said was taken out of context about some of the members who are gay.

So that didn't sit well.

I think as a kind of closing statement for her.

What do you think about this race in terms of the dynamics that are going to play out inside the Democratic Party?

Well, I mean, first of all, I think the Democratic Party is like, why did you vote for these things?

Yeah, no one needed your.

Vote, right?

Like, yeah, it was going to cost them out.

yes, that's a good Republicans had the votes already in the pocket.

Yeah.

No need for that.

Yeah.

And yes, I mean party loyalty matters, but party loyalty matters whether you're a Democrat or a Republican.

And at that exact point.

Yeah.

And it's it's extremely important.

Right.

And also if if you know, for the Democratic Party, the Democratic caucus in the House, it's important, right?

Because now she's going to if she wins, right, Democrats are going to be like like, no.

Yeah.

So that's going to create a tension in which she might switch parties.

Interesting.

Yeah.

And then Democrats are going to lose one position.

So that's one thing.

Not the district.

The district is fairly, you know, Democrat leaning.

So that's not a problem in the next election and whatnot.

Yeah, but obviously in terms of how the issues have been floated.

Right.

And I think that, you know, we the support that Ashley Simmons has, Laura, I actually CNN has, you know, is going to be very interesting.

Again, she's very well funding, very key endorsements.

Yeah, right.

And the race is just yeah, bring it on.

It's really going to be, I think, a bit of a toss up that's really about kind of getting your people out.

But this is a consequence of gerrymandering, it seems to me.

Right?

You draw this district in such a way that there's no variation in your ability to represent your district.

Either you're very blue or very red.

Yeah, that's a limitation, right?

So we talk a lot about how gerrymandering affects Republican.

Yeah, Yeah.

But the fact is it affects Democrats too, in equally the same way.

So this is a good example of how that has definitely become an issue.

So Republicans are coming to her aid.

Texas Texans for Lawsuit reforms coming to her aid.

So like there are a lot of these kind of Republican groups and people who are backing this Democratic, you know, candidate.

So that's definitely another kind of talking point which is problematic.

Let's talk about another big race here in Harris County, and that's for the district attorney.

Kim Ogg is the incumbent.

She's being challenged by a former member of her office, John Teare There were a lot of bad blood in this race.

They've got endorsements all across the the county.

Right.

Democrats, you know, taking sides in this.

You've got a pretty serious battle over a bunch of really important issues.

The district attorney, right.

How to deal with intake, how to deal with the bail issue.

Right.

At first, I was on board with bail reform efforts, which were constitutionally sort of challenged, and then she kind of backed off of it.

There's an intake problem that is about how they choose to prosecute certain cases and with what evidence she just mantle that and that was a talking point.

She's been on the firing line for two big other issues.

The first is that she allowed for a former kind of prosecutor who has strong ties to the Texas Republican Party to investigate judge, Lina Hidalgo who is very popular among Democrats especially young Democrats.

And the fact that she, of course, ended up with charges filed against some of the judges staffers means that you're going to go to battle on this with your primary audience.

So tell me about this race.

What do you think's going to happen here?

And does this indicate that there's a real sea change in terms of like where the Democratic Party's going to go?

Right.

She kind of ran as a reformer and didn't always live up to that.

Right.

In a way that other kind of democratic state across the country or across the state.

So is this really the final kind of straw for her, or do you think that she can fight through this and win?

I mean, I think is going to be also very competitive, very complicated.

Right.

Sean Teare has, again, a lot of endorsements.

Yeah, a lot of money.

That money battle even.

yeah.

Pretty quickly, right?

yeah.

And again, what he's talking about, he's not talking about, you know, I think very let's call it left leaning progressive issues.

Great point.

You said it is very operational.

Yeah.

Intake, bail reform.

And you know, he's talking about restoring moral competence, optics.

Right.

If you have a perhaps a conflict of interest, send it to another idea.

Yeah, that's a good point.

And end of story.

Right.

A lot of what or Democrats including he are saying is that you know that that the district attorney is basically turn the office into like a grudge factory.

And I don't know how true that is, but like, you could make that case.

And as you say, it's the optics that really make it the most damaging for her.

So I think that's a real kind of problem she's going to face.

So, yeah, polling suggests that he's way out of it.

yeah, That's stunning to see that much of a difference.

And I'd be surprised if Democrats were that mad at her.

But it very, very rarely be the case that they are that mad at her.

Am I actually interested in this, too, is beyond all these things.

And that's the influence that Judge Hidalgo has in Democratic circles in Harris County.

Can she move the needle here right.

She was one of the first people to very vocally be against Kim Ogg for obvious reasons, like I just said.

But can she move the needle on the Democratic Party in a state.

Right, challenging a different member of her own party saying this person is not democratic enough for us?

That would be pretty stunning outcome, actually, of all of this.

If it's true.

I think she has, you know, the connections she's smart also.

Kim Ogg is very smart as well.

And it's going to be a battle.

Yeah, but, you know, the Harris County Democratic Party has admonished Kim, Right.

So that's the first sign that, you know, the balance.

Perhaps they still think the other way towards Judge Hidalgo.

So we're going to see in the sense of how this turns out.

But I think that also has the political power to say you're not Democrat enough.

Interesting.

That's fascinating.

So we'll see how that plays out.

Let's talk about one Republican race, the last one we'll get to for the week, and that's in House District 138.

This is where former Harris County GOP Chairman Jared Woodfill is challenging Representative Lacy Hall.

A lot of baggage here.

Obviously, Woodfill is the former Harris County GOP chair, was at the helm of a bunch of hard line conservative kind of policies.

He was had been the attorney of record for some very, you know, kind of controversial type type cases.

He represents Steve Hotze, who obviously is very much to the right, including and all these kind of incidents about investigating vote fraud.

So he's got lots of baggage.

She has some baggage, too.

And it says he's running for speaker.

Right.

So it's not just he's running for House.

He's running for speaker, too.

That's a tough call, I think, for a lot of Republicans who like.

I don't.

Know if I want you to do both, maybe one, but not the other.

But I do think this will be a pretty competitive race.

The question is here, like whether or not conservatives really, like come out in big numbers in Harris County for this race.

I'm not sure.

We'll see.

Well, I mean, indeed, we're going to see.

But this is one of the races that is Paxton versus Abbott, you know, indirectly.

Right.

And representing Lacy Hall is, you know, first of all, an incumbent.

So she has a power of incumbency right there.

And also she's very conservative.

Yeah, I mean, right.

Like your record is very conservative.

So going to the right of that is, wait what ?

I mean, like her record is very straightforward in terms of what, you know, she has voted for and supported for.

So it's going to be very interesting.

But is once again the proxy wars, right, Whether you voted for impeachment, then you're going to be primaried.

Then, you know, Abbott said that said.

So we're going to see what happens.

And a signal about yeah, like how much authority that conservative wing of the party has can to bring out their voters in these districts.

We'll see.

Last thing to talk about the week.

This is the sort of Texas roundup and that's that a judge has rejected Ken Paxton's bid to dismiss securities fraud case.

So it's set for trial April 15th.

This is a nine year old.

Yes, this is before Trump was president, while Taylor Swift was on her 1989 tour.

And just as Daily Show was not being hosted by Jon Stewart, now Trump's running again.

Taylor Swift runs the world in Jon Stewart's back.

Yes, I don't know.

The delay is going to matter here, but I think he's got a bit of a cushion because he's not running.

But it may affect his people who he's endorsing, right?

Absolutely.

I think he maybe he doesn't mind that much because he likes the friction, but politically speaking, could be kind of a danger for him.

absolutely.

And the consequences.

Right.

You know, the federal charges carry up to 99 years in prison.

Very serious.

So that is very serious.

Is this is not a political impeachment trial.

Yeah, this is a real trial.

So in that it has very important consequences.

Yeah, but whether it starts April 15 or something, magic happens between now and then.

Right.

We're going to take it up next week.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina.

-And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus.

The conversation keeps up next week.