- Coming up on "Austin InSight:" analysis of the primary election results, what's next for Talarico, Cornyn, and Paxton?

Plus, we'll preview a different South by Southwest.

"Austin InSight" starts now.

- [Announcer] Support for "Austin InSight" comes from: Sally & James Gavin, and also from Daniel L. Skret.

(bright triumphant upbeat music) (bright triumphant upbeat music continues) - Hi there, and thanks for joining us, I'm Laura Laughead.

A clear win, a runoff, some last minute legal maneuvering impacting Dallas County Democrats, and some surprises for several incumbents in Tuesday's primary election.

Now the stage is set for a November general election that will definitely be one to watch.

In the US Senate race, the Democratic Party contest between Congresswoman, Jasmine Crockett, and State Representative, James Talarico, attracted nationwide attention.

With more than 97% of the votes counted, Talarico wins with the lead of about 7%.

And, as expected, Republican incumbent, John Cornyn, will face Attorney General, Ken Paxton, in a runoff election this May.

Cornyn and Paxton nearly tied in vote totals.

Congressman Wesley Hunt got about 13% of the vote.

Let's now bring in our panel to further discuss this.

We have Editor at the "Quorum Report," Scott Braddock, and Political Reporter for "KUT News," Blaise Gainey.

Been on the show before, so glad to have you back.

I bet you're tired today.

- Not at all, no.

- No?

- Running on nicotine and adrenaline right now, go ahead.

- You know, the breakfast of champions.

- Mm-hmm.

- Well, let's start with the Republican Senate race.

Cornyn and fired shots on election night saying, quote, "Judgment day is coming," doesn't mince words, "For Ken Paxton."

But Republican primary vote totals were so close.

You don't often see an incumbent senator in a primary runoff.

Did Cornyn this time get a better result than expected, or is this on par with what you were thinking?

- Not on par at all.

In fact, Cornyn over-performed all of the polling, you know, and he was ahead of Attorney General Paxton, which a lot of Republican operatives did not expect.

Just this morning, the Cornyn campaign put out a memo that I think was written for an audience of one, it's really written for President Trump, almost begging for an endorsement again, making the case, the Cornyn campaign, saying that, "Look, the Cornyn campaign not only did better than the polls, but they're also leading Ken Paxton, and they're certainly not dead in the water, as was thought by a lot of Republicans, not just here in Texas, but around the country."

And so, as we head into a runoff, I think Republicans are gonna try to figure out how they can maybe avoid a hundred million dollar disaster over the next three months.

- Yeah, I think the big thing will be exactly who shows up to vote in the runoff.

This was a election that really made a lot of airwaves and drew people out of their house.

I don't know if we'll see that in two months when people are asked to come back out.

People, I don't think they really like voting and like getting out.

I mean- - Which is interesting to think about, yeah.

- I mean, you can just look at the percentages, it's not like majority of people go and participate.

So my guess is, it'll be a more smaller amount of the base that comes out, and that could benefit Paxton.

- And so, how will the prospect of a Trump endorsement impact though this runoff?

- It'd be huge.

I mean, say if Paxton were to get it, I mean he's already been claiming he's the more MAGA-like candidate, I think most voters seem to think he's also the more MAGA-like candidate, he's never been called a RINO, like the person on the other side.

And so, I think it'd be huge for him, but I think it'd sort of be odd maybe if Trump were to come out and endorse Cornyn, but I still think that most MAGA voters will still get behind Trump, I mean, they sort of already do that anyways.

- I think that the President may well shock a lot of people if he does endorse Senator Cornyn, but by the numbers, it just makes sense.

Cornyn has more money, he has the institutional advantage.

He hasn't lost a statewide race in Texas since 1990 when he was on the Texas Supreme Court.

- Wow.

- And so, he's a proven quantity while Paxton is a big liability for Republicans.

And, you know, look, Democrats are expecting that they might see a big national investment for Talarico as their nominee, but a lot of that, it's not so much predicated on good vibes about James Talarico.

A lot of the argument that's been made in DC and New York and here in Texas, it's more about the fact that Paxton is a deeply flawed candidate.

And everywhere I have traveled in this state, from the metroplex to here in Austin, down to South Texas, Houston, everywhere in between, it's Republicans telling me they're very nervous about having Paxton at the top of the ticket, because of all of his personal baggage, and the fact that he's not the kind of prolific fundraiser that Cornyn is.

- Mm-hmm.

- This has been a race uniquely characterized by the mudslinging on the Republican side of things.

And we probably expect that will continue in this runoff, but if that does continue, how damaged will the eventual nominee be?

- I think that's a big point.

I mean, as he said, if Trump were to endorse Cornyn who has the more money to fight back against any damage he will take, then I think, like he said, that's the obvious choice.

And I know Trump likes to win, so he'd likely choose whoever the numbers say would likely win.

But how damaged would Paxton be?

I mean, he's about as damaged as a candidate can be.

I don't think, at this point, he can clean that up, but I also think he feels fine moving forward like this.

I mean, he wouldn't have entered the race knowing he was carrying this baggage if he was worried about carrying it along.

- Republicans clearly had hoped that Crockett would win.

How will the general election look now that James Talarico who has such, you know, a virality following him and such a platform, is the nominee?

- I think a lot of it depends more on who the Republican nominee is, as far as what the overall environment is going to be, but I will say this, for the issues that the Republicans in this state and nationally that they face, so much of it is emanating from the White House and emanating from President Trump.

Democrats have the wind at their back this year because of two main things: one is the economy, right, people don't feel good about it; and, two, and this is especially applicable in South Texas, is the Immigration and Customs Enforcement, ICE, setting up more checkpoints now in South Texas, everywhere from Brownsville to Harlingen, on up to Bexar County in San Antonio.

And so, it's not just that people are seeing, you know, the ICE agents shooting Americans on the streets of Minnesota, it's also that, and this is part of my reporting at "Quorum Report," we've got Republican legislators in Texas right now who are fielding angry calls from voters who voted for Trump, who are asking, "Why is ICE in my neighborhood?"

- Mm-hmm.

If people like James Talarico gain traction, it can only serve to benefit people like Gina Hinojosa.

Let's talk about the governor's race.

Incumbent Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa, both handily won their primary elections; however, Abbott's approval rating, it's not as bad as the President's in Texas, but it's close.

How do you see the general election for them shaping up?

- Well, you know, in general elections in Texas, historically, it was down-ballot races where the Republicans were eventually able to break through.

One of the first big wins for Republicans when this was a Democratic state years ago was the agriculture commissioner race, when Rick Perry had switched parties; he was a Democrat- - Yes.

- Then he became a Republican, and he was able to win statewide that way.

But there is a down-ballot effect, those coattails are real.

And I do think that the backlash to Republicans just exacerbates that this could be, for the Republicans in the state, it could be what 2010 was for Democrats.

In 2010, when there was backlash to President Obama's signature healthcare law, the Affordable Care Act, Democrats were losing all over the state, they lost 36 Texas House seats that year.

- Yeah, I mean I think the coattails thing is definitely a benefactor here.

You could see... I mean, Gina Hinojosa at the top, maybe she can control South Texas and get them to come out and vote, you also have Vicki Goodwin or Marcos Velez, who I believe, you know, either way would really help.

I mean, Vicki Goodwin's here in the same county, or the same district area as Talarico, I could see them being together, but I could also see Marcos Velez being down with Gina Hinojosa.

I mean, it'll be interesting to see exactly who we have in that runoff, but, ultimately, I mean, this will be very impressive to see what Democrats can do to try to bring in down-ballot people.

Like I said, they put people in every single race this year, that's not normal, and it's because they believed that this was the year and the time to attack, and as we see a lot of money coming in, all the indicators are there that they really do believe this is the year they can make a change.

- Let's talk now about voter turnout.

We saw unusually larger democratic turnout in this primary, but, then again, November is a whole new ball game.

Everyone is always asking, "Will Texas flip blue?"

Do you think this is the year?

- I would think, in those statewide races and in legislative races, et cetera, the Democrats are gonna have a very good year in Texas.

Can they punch through?

Well, they're gonna be up against, and none of these races happen in a vacuum, they're up against a governor who's probably gonna have about $150 million to spend by the time it's all over with; Lieutenant Governor Patrick has about 50 million something like that, groups like Texans for Lawsuit Reform can drop $40 million in one of these races.

So we're talking about a quarter billion dollars spent in Texas between now and November.

- That's staggering.

- Yeah, mm-hmm.

- Yeah.

- Yeah, I think it will be shocking to see will it turn blue?

I mean, I don't think it'll be dark blue, I don't think it's just gonna be a total flip- - A purple.

(chuckles) - Right.

I don't think it's gonna be a total flip, but I do think there's a chance, and I think that's what I was talking about earlier with the energy, the money being poured in from the Democratic side, the fact that they have people on every single ticket down, you know, throughout the state.

The energy's there, and it doesn't seem like the economy's gonna get any better by then, I think all those things, like we said earlier about everything in the White House is also affecting things here, I think that's really the big thing that Texas Republicans just can't control, that's out of their hands, all they can do is continue to pour money into the races and try to get their name out there, and, most, not a problem for the people at the top of the ticket.

But, yeah, I don't know exactly how they can combat the economy and the immigration enforcement issues.

- Certainly a primary election for the ages, especially in that Senate race.

- Oh, yeah.

- We appreciate your analysis so much.

Scott Braddock with the "Quorum Report," and Blaise Gainey with "KUT," thank you so much for your analysis.

- Thank you.

- Thank you.

(bright orchestral upbeat music) - Investigators continue to piece together why a suspected gunman fired rounds of bullets at people enjoying themselves at the popular Sixth Street bar, Buford's, early Sunday morning.

Our Local Government reporter, Sam Stark, has been covering this.

Sam, can you recap, what's the latest that we know?

- So, so far, authorities say three people have died, two we're killed Sunday morning, and then a third person died from his injuries Monday evening.

More than a dozen others were injured, and two were in critical condition last we heard.

The suspected gunman is Ndiaga Diagne, a naturalized US citizen who was born in Senegal.

He first came to the US in 2000 on a tourist visa, he became a legal resident in 2006, and earned citizenship in 2013.

Police told us on Monday that Diagne purchased his firearms legally in 2017.

Authorities have been pretty tight-lipped on his background and motive so far, but we know the night, he wore a sweatshirt that said "Property of Allah," and also a shirt with an Iranian flag design underneath that sweatshirt.

This, of course, took place amid the escalating conflict between the US and Iran.

We also can report that divorce records show he has a history of family violence.

- As we're, you know, looking at the totality of this, and certainly as a police chief, and we're coming in and we're getting this information, and we see those indicators, we see, you know, the second shirt with the Iran and the picture of the Shah on that T-shirt as well, you know, we're thinking about events and what's occurring in the country as well.

And so, in addition to the fact that this was a huge, complex scene, we're we're calling in those federal partners to take a look at that as well.

And so, again, the motives, all of those things, that's what this investigation is about right now.

- Any declarations on what led to that motive would be premature, right?

We want to make sure that we have our facts 100% correct or as close to, or at least we've tracked down every possible lead that we can because that's what we owe to the victims, right, that's what you guys want answers for, but more importantly, we owe that to the victims and their families to be right.

So we don't want to speculate or make any guesses at this stage of the investigation as to what that motive ultimately was.

- Killed in the shooting were 30-year-old Jorge Munoz Pederson, who had recently moved to Austin from Minnesota, there was also Ryder Harrington, aged 19, he attended Texas Tech, and Savitha Shan, she was 21, and a UT senior.

And, Laura, we expect more to come from federal and local law enforcement regarding the motive for the shooting, we'll update the story, and I'll be there for any future press conferences.

- Thank you so much, Sam.

I know everyone in Austin is waiting with bated breath for these updates, such a terrible week, but thank you again for your reporting.

- Of course.

(bright orchestral upbeat music) Meanwhile, with South by Southwest next week, this shooting raises questions about security.

When asked about the festival earlier this week, police Chief, Lisa Davis, said that a comprehensive security plan is in place, and that South by will be a, quote, "safe festival."

South by Southwest also released this statement to us, saying in part quote, "Following the tragic events in downtown Austin this weekend, our hearts are with the victims, their families, and all those affected.

Safety is our top priority.

We are grateful for the Austin Police Department's commitment to the protection of our city and our event.

As Chief Davis made clear, the city is ready for South by Southwest."

But even before the shooting, this year's South by was facing a challenge with the convention center under construction.

In an interview recorded before the shooting, we spoke with festival leadership about the changes to this signature Austin event.

As final preparations are made for the influx of tens of thousands of attendees from around the world, we're getting a preview from Claudette Godfrey, VP of Film & TV at South by Southwest, and Adam Wode, Director of Conference Programming.

I know it's a really busy time for the two of you, thank you so much for being with us today.

- Thanks for having us!

- Yeah, thank you for having us.

- Absolutely.

So, first, let's get this out of the way, let's talk about what's changed this year.

So how is the festival gonna look without the convention center, which is typically home base?

- Yeah, it's gonna be dispersed more around downtown for the Film & TV festival, it means our sessions will be coming closer to the street closure, and the Paramount right behind in the Omni, all of our sessions will be taking place, except for the keynotes and the featured speakers.

- And on the Innovation Conference front, a lot of similar venues we've used in the past; we're using the Hilton, that'll be one of our main hubs this year, we're also using the JW Marriott and the Marriott Downtown.

One of the bigger changes is to the music conference footprint, that's gonna take place at the Downright Hotel and that'll run Friday, March 13th, through Wednesday the 18th.

The Downright, it's right there on Red River, it's a real hub and it's gonna get the music community closer to the clubs and venues that Music Fest takes place and to create a nice ecosystem for those folks.

- And we'll touch more on the music side of things in a second, but with these changes with the convention center and the abbreviated dates, are you guys at all concerned that there might be fewer people coming for the festival this year?

- I think it's gonna be even better than it's ever been, because we're sort of leaning into the neighborhood vibe.

So we're having a clubhouse right across from the Paramount, we'll have... Actually, that street closure is gonna be three blocks long this year, and it's open to the public, so it'll be more of like a festival street.

We're using the estate again, so we'll have two theaters within that closure, and then just half a block away, all the sessions.

So we'll be actually more compact for a lot of our parts of the event for the Film & TV festival, and I think it'll actually help all of the different groups, 'cause they're programming the hotels the same way.

- Mm-hmm.

- And I do think having music festival and music conference running throughout, alongside Film, alongside Innovation Conference, it's gonna be really powerful, and I think it's actually gonna be a really big positive change because there's more convergence collaboration of different industry types.

And that's what South by is all about, it's bringing people together who might not go to the same event circuit.

- Exactly.

When also for like compressed days, it's easier to get, you know, time off for, you know, a week- - Exactly.

- Absolutely.

- Than like 10 days.

- Yes, so if you love music and you don't have to stay till later, it all is starting on Thursday.

So it's also our first time starting on a Thursday, so I keep reminding everybody about that.

- Yes.

(Claudette chuckles) - Yeah, because some people were concerned with the loss of the second weekend that, you know, how that would impact the music festival side of things, but it seems like, you know, from what you're saying, you think it'll be even better for music in a sense.

- Yeah, and also because they actually have extra days than what they used to have by starting on Thursday.

So the music, the film, and TV festival is a little bit shorter, but we've actually ended up being able to program the same number of films, we squeezed them in, and the music festival actually gets more days, so they're able to, you know, capture that audience that's there the first weekend.

- Yeah, absolutely.

- And now let's talk about the most exciting events and things you're looking forward to at South by this year.

Films, panels, popups, we just learned that Steven Spielberg will now be speaking, everyone's talking about that, what are you excited about most?

- I was gonna say that's my number one!

We just announced that, and really, really excited to be working with Universal, to have Steven here to talk about his new film, "Disclosure Day," and also, you know, his illustrious past, because he's such a legend.

So very excited for that.

Also, opening night film, "I Love Boosters," if people don't know about Boots Riley's earlier work, he is very much a visionary, and it's gonna be one to check out for sure.

- Oh, I'm personally excited for, you know, Keke Palmer, also- - Oh, yes, yes.

- Coming to town.

I love her.

- She's gonna be doing everything, she's doing a lot.

- Oh, yeah.

- It's gonna be great.

- And on the Innovation side, really excited for Tom Sachs' keynote.

He's a brilliant artist and creative, and he's gonna be really talking about his creative process.

We also have Aza Raskin, who's the Founder of the Earth Species Project, he's looking at using AI to communicate with animals, which is something that has always seemed like the future, and maybe the future is here.

So those should be really two cool sessions.

- Okay, I'll have to make a note of that one 'cause that sounds really interesting.

If I could talk to my chiweenie, Mr.

Wiggles, there's a lot I would really like him to know, "Please don't pee on my floor anymore" is top of that.

But when all these big names come to town, what are the popular Austin things they typically like to do?

What's the advice also you might give some of these big names on what to see, do, or eat that's quintessentially Austin.

- I mean, for me, a lot of those stars love to go to Barton Springs, it's like- - Really?

- Even though it's cold, it's the start of the year, I think it's one of those iconic things that they always think of.

So if they can get away, they always try to do that.

- I think everybody's looking to have barbecue.

- Oh, yes.

- Of course.

- I feel like that's the number one question, is like "Where can I get barbecue?

Where can I get it easy?"

I always try and push people to Tex-Mex, because I feel like that is also a very quintessential Austin thing to go find.

But barbecue's always the number one question from every speaker we have.

- Yeah, it's true.

Oh, and last year at the premier of "The Rivals of Amziah King" with Matthew McConaughey, apparently the cast went to White Horse- - They did.

- To go two-stepping, which was great.

And then Dua Lipa also, when she came for ACL one year, went two-stepping at the Broken Spoke.

So maybe we'll keep our eyes peeled for some celebrities two-stepping.

So the festival runs Thursday, March 12th, through Wednesday, March 18th, we'll be out there, we're excited, and we'll hopefully see y'all around.

Claudette Godfrey and Adam Wode with South by Southwest, thank you so much for joining us today.

- Cool, thank you.

- Thank you.

(bright orchestral upbeat music) - Politicians talk a lot about immigration, it's a big issue here for sure, but the rhetoric often fails to convey the real-world impact of the current enforcement environment on families, especially children in Austin.

Our Senior Multimedia Journalist, Blair Waltman-Alexin, from our community journalism project, Decibel, is here.

Blair, the fear is there, and the impact is certainly big, but sometimes it can be hard to track.

Can you explain?

- Yeah, that's right, Laura.

It's very obvious to the teachers and counselors in these afterschool programs in Rundberg where our reporting is focused, what you can't actually see are the absent kids.

- There's like a way though, you can't just cut it.

Hey, y'all, come on, it's all good, you're not interrupting nothing.

Y'all gotta come sign in.

- Yeah, come in, come in, come in and sign in.

- So here at Gus Garcia, we have like all of the youth sports and all of the out-of-school-time camps.

(knife clacking) Make sure you keep your fingers kind of back like this, so you don't... And then also the day to day, like after school, every day program.

(intriguing bright orchestral music) - Here at the Teen Tech Center, we provide free access to state-of-the-art technology and creative technology and crafting to 12 to 18 year olds.

- So you wanna be on the sternum.

- The program that we have after school is ACE.

(teacher chattering) We have a cooking class, we do STEM, we have a medical academy.

- We have more when it's a Medical Academy Day, 'cause they get so excited about it.

(students chattering) - But with everything going on right now, our enrollment has dropped.

- The numbers have just been way, way down.

- The community definitely is going through a lot.

- We have seen a drastic decline with ICE.

(wind whooshing) (wind whooshing continues) (attendees chattering) (attendees chattering continues) - You know, we would have 50 to 60 teenagers here a day, I'm lucky if I get like a solid 25 to 30 kids a day.

It's like drastic decrease.

(students chattering) - It used to be like our slowest day would be maybe four kids or five kids, and then now it's like one kid on a slow day.

(students chattering) - February of 2025, we had around 160 sign in and sign outs, but then this year, 2026, we have had probably about 40.

- It's definitely something that is present, like this fear, like this boogeyman that's out there that's keeping everybody inside.

- We're trying our best to reach out to the community, but with everything going on right now, that is the real reason why our enrollment has dropped.

- They're worried about deportation and incarceration.

(intriguing melancholy music) - [Elizabeth] Some of our students have witnessed parents being taken away.

- Some of them are worried about if they're gonna go home to parents or an empty apartment, you know, like that's really real for them.

- There's teachers in the area that have been detained.

- We've had a episode last year where ICE actually pulled over a family because their light, tail light was out; and our students saw that, they saw firsthand ICE take away a parent.

- Today, we had some kids voice concerns from their family about like whether they should be in the protest or not, because whether or not it would be a risk for their family.

- Our kids are very vocal, they're aware of what's happening, they want to be here, but they feel like they're not safe.

- All right, here we go.

My husband, he said that there have been these 3D whistles being made to alert other people if ICE is in the area.

But he said, how wonderful would that be because we have the 3D printers to print these.

If we can do just a little thing in here, in our Teen Tech Center, for the community, then we're gonna do it.

(mellow intriguing orchestral music) - You're supposed to like love, 'cause love beats hate, and, yeah, that's... I show love by keeping my rage invisible.

(chuckles) Like, I show love just by not reacting or responding, 'cause it's heavy and it's hard to see every day or to hear every day or to, you know, to live through this particular period of time is very, very heavy.

(students and teachers chattering) - I mean, it's heavier for the kids, like, it's their real-life now I worry about, like what are the kids gonna experience?

(whistle blowing) - It works.

(chuckles) It breaks my heart, it does.

It makes me really emotional actually.

And they don't deserve that.

- Put your name on there.

We wish we could do more, we wish we could protect them more, because we've taken that oath as educators to do that.

It's not just the ACE program, it's the connections that we've lost along the way because of ICE.

(melancholy orchestral music) - And, Laura, a lot of these counselors are really concerned about the long-term effects, they're worried about decreased funding that might decrease these programs, or make them go away entirely.

- Certainly many challenges to come, Blair, and I know you'll be out there reporting on these.

Thank you so much for your story.

(bright orchestral upbeat music) Before we go, it goes without saying, it's been a tough week for our city.

We wanted to take a moment to send our support to everyone hurting in the aftermath of the shooting.

As a UT grad myself, I'm especially heartbroken for our Longhorn community.

The new cycle may move on, but we won't feel normal for a while.

But we can take comfort in how our community always comes together in the face of a tragedy like this.

That's our show.

Thanks so much for watching.

You can watch our stories in the Austin PBS YouTube channel, or watch full episodes on the Austin PBS app.

We'll see you next time.

(bright groovy orchestral upbeat music) (bright groovy orchestral upbeat music continues) - [Announcer] Support for "Austin InSight" comes from: Sally & James Gavin, and also from Daniel L. Skret.

(bright melodious instrumental music)