Welcome to Party Politics, where we prepare you for your next political conversation.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina, a political science professor at the University of Houston, and I'm Brandon Rottinghaus also a political science professor here at the University of Houston.

Thanks for hanging out and talking politics with us.

We're going to kind of deviate this week, as we sometimes do, to dig into a big picture topic that isn't topical as such for today, but really actually for like tomorrow, right?

And really for the next decade.

So Texas is going to turn 200 years old in 2036.

And our kind of question for the week, our exploration for this show is what it's going to look like.

What kind of challenges did the state confront?

What are the kind of big hurdles that it faces in terms of population changes, in terms of policy changes, in terms of political changes?

And maybe if we have a few minutes about sports predictions, my friend, because there's lots going on and it's fun to speculate about what might come.

So yeah, look.

I know you have your favorites.

And so.

I have no idea what you're talking about.

But.

Okay.

Yeah.

Well, you know, I have some ideas.

Yeah.

Let me get there.

So like, the biggest, I think, kind of conundrum the state faces is, kind of potential problem, but also potential opportunity.

Right.

The state's booming.

We don't have to tell people this.

If you drive around anywhere in most other big city and you see that the state is absolutely booming.

If you look in rural areas, though, the story is much different.

And so that divide is really important and has implications for how the state functions.

If you think about the kind of history of the state in the 1850s, Texas had like 200,000 people, like the whole, right, land mass, which is obviously really small.

Fast forward to today, where the state has hit 31 million people and most of them are living in these urban areas.

So the obvious kind of implications to this is that population change is going to have an effect on what kind of policies the state engages in.

So what are the kind of challenges that come with that fast population growth the state has seen in the past even decade?

Right.

So I think there's two very important things.

The first one is, as you say, the rural urban divide and that rural urban divide is increasingly worrisome in terms of, rural counties, rural areas being depopulated.

Yeah.

But still needing, labor force to continue and continue.

Basically.

What are you going to be founding?

There is, farming, agriculture and obviously livestock.

So that has very important implications because these are three of the most important industries in the state.

Yeah, like multiple billions of dollars.

Absolutely.

So that's a very important and not only for the state, but it also has implications for the rest of the country.

So that's that's one one important thing.

The other thing is the way that we develop here in Texas, that, you know, we do communities, so on and so forth, varies by county to one extent and two the next one, and obviously is a let's put it this way, a disorganized chaos, right?

Disorganized?

Texas?

Like a little bit in terms of that that needs to complied with certain laws.

And last but certainly those laws are not projected into the future.

Yeah.

And issues like for example, I don't know, the size or the width of a sidewalk.

Yeah.

Right.

Yeah.

Even communities need to have, for example, issues regarding walkability, like younger generations, believe it or not, they like to do stuff.

Yeah.

Walking distance.

Yes.

So, obviously weather in Texas maybe, sometimes a little bit.

That sounds fantastic.

Yeah.

Right.

I mean, but that requires, for example, planning, planting trees, not just going into a new area, get rid of all the trees and then plant little trees that are going to take 11,000 years to grow.

So there's a lot of, of, of, of those issues that need to be, concentrated and especially with two of my favorite, things that had to do.

Infrastructure.

Yes.

Water.

Yeah.

And power.

Yeah, totally.

And these three are the most important things in terms of the future growth of the state, of the state, in terms of of, education, labor capital, in terms of investment and in terms of continued sustainable growth.

Yeah, that is paramount.

And sometimes I wonder, where are we going to be in 2036, in these big three domains?

And that's the question that the state continues to confront in some ways.

And baby steps.

Right.

They kind of take these little half nods towards it.

The state has invested money in these entities.

So transportation infrastructure and water.

Right.

But the amount of money they're putting in is kind of dribbles compared to kind of what might be needed.

The state's population is projected to be, almost 20 million more people by the like 2036 era.

And that's a tremendous number of people.

And at this point, the state is not able to sustain that.

So that growth has to be managed properly.

So you're exactly right.

Transportation is a huge issue.

The problem is the way the transportation is funded is that it's a combination of state fuel taxes, vehicle registration, toll roads, which are becoming kind of more constrained in terms of their ability to operate, by the 2036, the estimated toll like road use is going to grow by 200% in Texas.

That's a lot of wear and tear, right?

Yeah.

Like, I mean, the traffic is one thing, and just the loss of time, which is definitely like an economic indicator, but also the wear and tear on the roads.

Right?

Those kinds of things have to be controlled for and have to be able to be sort of thought through in terms of replacement.

Another issue that you I think that is part of this, that in the storyline that you're telling is about affordable housing.

This is something that the state has tried to confront.

And, and affordable housing is part of it.

And also insurance is another.

Right, sort of people able to afford insurance to buy a house and to protect their house.

That's another issue that has to be thought through.

And places like Dallas and San Antonio, it, you know, tops the list in terms of how much money there is, to pay for these houses.

So that I think, is going to be something that the state has to confront.

Water use is a big one, too.

You mentioned this is something the state has tried to put money into, and little by little they're doing that.

And it's just something that is hard to keep up with because the suburbs are so thirsty.

Right.

And you've got rural areas who need that for water.

So there are these battles that take place between suburban areas that are taking the money, you know, taking that water to be able to let people water their yards.

And to have you know, kind of that compared to the rural areas who need it to irrigate, the crops.

But that is the huge, issue that sometimes I wonder if people are significantly paying attention.

What?

So when you're thinking about a public policy, especially let's say, water.

Right.

And the point that you mentioned, water irrigation.

So all the lawns are, super green, etc., etc., because that's a, on the one hand, that is a responsibility of homeowners associations or even POA's, property owners associations, right?

That is a requirement.

Yes.

And if you do not do that, you're going to be in violation and you're going to get a fine.

So from there, right, starting from there, you need to start thinking about, okay, we're not going to be using sod anymore.

Yeah.

Forget about Saint Augustine's or Palmetto mix, or this or that.

Right.

That is gone.

It's going to be like kind of natural.

Natural.

Rocks and.

It's.

Plants.

And you reduce water consumption that that water can be diverted somewhere else.

And municipalities are doing a good job at this.

Right.

Some places are saying like, you can't water on certain days or like your total amount of usage.

Yes.

But when we are on the drought condition, yes, that is not a requirement for every single day you go to certain other places, like for example, when you go to the hill country, to the New Braunfels area.

Construction is different there because they're seeing, you know, for example, Canyon Lake is disappearing and therefore they don't have water.

So the way that there are planning and constructors and homebuilders are doing that, it's a different approach.

But that is not generalized to the whole state.

Yeah.

And the other point is, you know, water obviously it rains a lot, especially in the Gulf Coast.

Right.

So water retention projects need to be a priority for the state, for the cities and for the counties.

And we have experiences in in other places, like in Japan and other, countries where they recaptured that water.

Yeah.

And that water can be used for, you know, other purposes or has to have a different life cycle.

And that life cycle then implies water treatment plants.

Yes.

Like the one in Houston that is 11,000 years old and needs to be basically rebuilt from scratch.

Right.

But that's a lot of money.

Yeah, it's a lot of money.

So when you start thinking about those things and going back.

Yeah.

And following basically the water.

Yeah.

Then you need to make a lot of changes.

And those changes are not going to be solved simply by putting, $1 billion a year over the next 20.

Yeah, of, of the next 20 years, because in a span of, 11 years, we're going to have 20 million people.

Yeah, that's a lot more people.

It is a lot of people.

And a lot of people are not going to come like 1 million today, Yeah, and nothing tomorrow and next week.

No, no.

They're going to come boom.

Yeah.

Totally.

And and as for that infrastructure.

Yeah.

And these problems are magnified when you look at kind of certain key demographics, right.

You've got certain growth in areas that are definitely going to challenge the state in terms of other resources.

So things like health care.

Right.

And the sort of current moment there's about 17% of Texans who don't have health care.

And that's stunning and also has implications in terms of like the financial resources the state can bring to it because it strains all these hospital systems, especially rural hospital systems, who don't have the money to be able to accommodate.

So those kinds of things are really complicated that create this kind of tension the state's going to have to face.

So, let's talk about the kind of demographic changes that are happening in the state.

Right.

This is obviously become, a tremendous political question, but it's also a lot like a public policy question, because the kinds of needs of certain kinds of groups might be different than others.

So, I want to talk about kind of the aging population in a minute.

But before we talk about that, I want to talk about kind of the the racial and ethnic demographics that are really also kind of changing the way the state is, organized and kind of who is living here.

Right.

So the first thing about that, when you have a different racial or demographic makeup of the state, is that not necessarily the same, policy needs once and preferences are going to be manifested within each group.

You're going to have the basic bread and butter issues that are going to be, cutting across all, all groups.

But then there might be, certain differences.

Nowadays, the demographic change is not so much by, let's call it, international.

Migration is not fueled necessarily by that is more internal migration and internal migration from different demographic groups.

So the needs that you may have, are going to be basically in terms of education and, and, and, and obviously, regarding health care, and that can put the state in a different trajectory.

Why?

Because you mentioned it a couple of weeks ago.

If we don't have the human capital, right, to sustain these growth.

And basically you want healthy workers, right?

And workers are going to be, prepared for the labor force, whether it's a technical, skill, trade, or whatnot or, you know, four year college, it's irrelevant.

You need, labor force that is prepared for the time.

You need kind of all of it, actually.

Right?

Yes.

To settle and solve all these problems.

Yeah, that's a great point.

And I think, too, the one thing the state confronts is a kind of inequality when it comes to these items.

Right.

So Texas is still almost a segregated now as it was, you know, 20 years ago.

Those changes haven't been able to kind of change the way that education functions in the state.

That has to be fixed, because, again, a well-trained workforce is a key to population growth and a successful way.

Incomes.

Another issue to right the income gap between the races is a big enough that it's worrisome.

And obviously, even though the state is booming in a way and the economy is better than in some places, it still doesn't have that kind of parity that it would need to have for kind of a rising economy to lift all the boats.

And so that's one issue.

Another issue is just housing, right?

People have like limited access to housing.

It's expensive to buy a house, the kind of money you need to put down, the kind of insurance you have to carry to go with it.

Those divides in terms of race, is also problematic too.

So again, if we think about, I know you're working on sort of projects related to the sort of American Dream concept.

This to me is a really interesting notion because like, you have to find that solution, you have to figure out a way to make people, you know, give like an open door to the American dream.

Exactly.

And I think that is the real answer to that.

So I don't think it's about it's the difference between quality and quantity of opportunities.

Okay.

So when you look at it from a quantity perspective, right.

It's you want to go to the school regardless of where you live.

Right?

You want to go to an elementary school boom.

You can go to elementary school.

That is in the Texas Constitution.

Education is a right.

Yeah.

Now, the difference between that opportunity in terms of quality, depending on the zip code that you're living.

Yeah, it's night and day.

Dictates like you're your full outcome.

Absolutely.

And where you're born is going to dictate the opportunities, the quality of opportunities that you have.

Yeah, right.

Totally.

And it's not a matter of, you know, people are lazy or anything like that, then you have personal responsibility.

No, he's going to be some limitations.

Right?

We are not going to allow you to fulfill the American dream and fulfill the American dream means that you have the same chance as the next person, regardless of race, color, sex, etc., etc.

to to to go for it.

Yeah.

Right.

To go.

Let's say I want that I can go and I can achieve it.

Yeah.

So to me, in terms of public policy, what we need to start thinking about is how we make these system in which the opportunities are the same quality, regardless of who you are, where you come from.

Yeah, I just like that.

Yeah.

Just make it in that way.

Finance schools the same way, give the same opportunities to kids so they can go fulfill their dream.

Yeah.

And then get back to society.

Yeah.

And I mean, Texas has always been a magnet for people who wanted to try to find a better life.

I mean, this is true historically.

Oh, yes.

You know, the kind of origins of the territory, but also even true today.

Right?

You've got more than 2 million, the.

No, sorry, more than 5 million foreign born individuals in the state who have come here from all over to find these tech jobs and to be able to kind of find this place and, help to boom the economy.

You know, there's this sort of controversy about the sort of how much immigration is too much.

That's a conundrum that the state has to face.

But it's a state, of course, the nation has to face, too.

Yeah, but that's a big engine of economic motivation.

So that has to be something that the state thinks about.

The other is, of course, about sort of people who are undocumented who come here right.

And that's a different conundrum.

Like that's been used as a political story.

We've talked about this ad nauseum, right, a few years, but that too is, driver of economic costs and, possible benefits.

Right?

A lot of, individuals who have come here illegally have basically, you know, given, resources to the state and to the nation that they're never going to use.

Right?

You're going to pay for security and stuff.

You're not going to ever use that.

Yeah.

You're paying into local economy, right?

You're you're not, you know, going to use those sales taxes as much as other people.

So there is sort of a plus there.

But there's also a minus.

Right.

And that they're taking resources in some cases that could be complicated.

So I guess my question to you is sort of what's the balance here that the state has to try to find because that problem is not going to go away, right?

I mean, we know that it kind of moves in cycles, right?

I mean, there are times where it's really high and you have a lot of people who are coming here, you know, with an undocumented and you have some times where people like don't come as much.

And so those are driven by all kinds of factors, by international factors.

So what's the right balance for the state here?

And how do you sort of solve that problem?

I mean, it seems like the look a wall is not doing it right.

Oh no absolutely not.

But you know, the first thing is, is that in order to understand migration, is a push pull, effect.

Right.

Countries push people out and we pull people in, one way or the other.

Yeah.

And also is about management.

It's about management.

Or managing migration flows.

It's not about control, because certainly you cannot control migration as we have seen since the 1800s.

Right.

And it's something that doesn't, doesn't, doesn't is is not going to happen.

The other point is that and I know you're going to say that I'm not wishy washy typical academic.

Yeah.

But we have to get rid of the politics.

Yeah.

And just focus on the policy of immigration.

Right.

Because you're 100% right.

Immigration has benefits.

Immigration has cost.

Yeah, right.

The real trick here is to find a balance.

In Texas, Remember?

What was that in 2015?

Maybe ten years ago?

State comptroller did a report saying, you know, undocumented migrants give the state about $5 billion or something like that.

Yeah.

And he's like, we we didn't have to.

And I'm like, shut down pretty fast.

Exactly.

Like.

And then nothing like nothing.

Why?

Because the politics of immigration outweighed, you know, perhaps some of the benefits.

But obviously dependents received.

And in terms of the rural urban divide that we just said immigration fuels.

Those rural counties.

Right.

Because that's it.

People that are working the fields, that's the people that are taking care of ranches etc., they're starting.

Small businesses and.

Those and then starting those exactly right.

And revitalizing the economy of towns are basically going to die in the next couple of years.

Yeah.

So it is very tricky and also is a very emotional issue.

Yeah.

Right.

Yeah.

It's we are a country of immigrants.

Right?

Right.

I mean, the Statue of Liberty.

Yeah.

It's it's right there.

Give me you're poor, You're tired, Your huddled masses.

Right there.

But then he's like well.

Yeah but not too many of you also.

Yeah.

Exactly.

Yeah.

And please have a PhD.

When you come in.

Don't bring $2 million or something.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

You can pay for it if you get it right.

So that is the trick.

Yeah.

But I think it's a must that we must focus on.

And trying to get rid of all the politics surrounding immigration.

It's really a challenge, right?

Because so much of the way that the kind of parties are organized now is fought over these issues, and it's something that's a national issue, not just a Texas issue.

But, look, Texas has its unique problem that's different from Arizona or Colorado or California or Florida.

So it has to kind of treat these things as separate and unique.

And that's something that really they're not doing right.

It's kind of following this national model, which is only going to get us so far.

So I think the frankly, the state's been lucky about how it's been situated.

Right?

I mean, it has sort of these functional elements in place that give the economy a pretty good boost and keep it pretty stable, but that might not last.

A couple conditions fall out of place.

So the worry is that that's what's going to happen.

And that as the population continues to grow and now you have these asymmetries in terms of outcomes, it could become an issue.

Another issue is about just the aging in the state.

Now, Texas is still a pretty young state, driven in part by people who are coming here from other countries.

But it also has a significant number of people who are 65 plus.

In fact, it's got more than 3 million people who are 65 plus.

This is called the silver tsunami, right?

The kind of growing number of people who are kind of aging in place.

So by 2036, almost 20% of the state will be over 64 years of old.

That's a lot.

That's 10%, though, that live in poverty.

So that's a lot of people who have to be cared for in particular ways.

So you're talking about strain on that kind of care provider system on the hospital systems, on doctors and health care providers that, that.

Does not exist.

Yeah, exactly.

Yeah.

And there has to be structure has to be built to accommodate the people who are poor and aging those two things together is a kind of, you know, Venn diagram nightmare that the state is going to have to confront.

It could, you know very well, bankrupt many different county hospital systems.

Oh, absolutely.

Because the infrastructure that exists now and is insanely, insanely expensive.

Yeah, yeah.

Only very, very, very few can afford, that kind of care.

Right.

The rest of the people will have to rely on counties.

Yeah.

Social services, you will have to rely on family.

And sometimes you cannot rely on family.

Right.

And you will have to rely on the state for social assistance.

And we know that Texas is not, a state that has a very robust social assistance, network.

So the real question here is if you need to incorporate people.

Right.

Because eventually these people will have their own Social Security, checks coming in.

So the people that are coming, especially those are contributing.

And, Alan Greenspan say that many years ago, undocumented migrants contribute to Social Security and they will never see a cent but have that has been keeping it afloat.

Right.

And getting more money, money, money.

So that is going to be very important to see and have the infrastructure for these folks, right?

Yeah.

To be taking care of eventually.

It's a great point.

And two, I mean, on the kind of intercom security issue, if it's the case that Medicaid, Medicare are cut or trimmed or some of those burdens are thrust on to the state, the state may not have the money.

They may not have the desire to pay for all of these different changes.

So that could really trim back services, which exacerbate some of that problem.

And income insecurity is still a huge problem.

Oh yeah.

And so I mean, among the elderly, about 11%, are live in a place where they're totally income insecure.

So some are truly in poverty as designed and defined by the federal government.

But, in many of them are just simply income insecure living, you know, on Social Security, which isn't a lot of money, despite the fact that it's, you know, something you paid into.

It's not going to keep you in a kind of, you know, robust standard of living.

And the poll after poll shows that there are a lot of people out there who can't come up with kind of emergency money.

If you need to come up with $400, like a significant portion of Houstonians in particular in the kitchen may say, I can't do it right.

That is a that is a that is a disaster waiting to happen.

Economic crisis, in waiting.

And think about it.

Right.

And everything is tied to everything, right.

Unfortunately.

Oh fortunate.

Yeah.

You pull the string and all of a sudden it's like your sweater is gone.

Exactly.

But it's it's the development issues.

Right as news.

Are these new areas are becoming more and more developed or urbanized or whatnot.

Right?

Or gentrified or whatever it is.

Right.

You're pushing people out?

Yes.

Where are these people going to go?

Yeah.

I mean, yeah, they don't have anywhere to go.

Yes.

Right.

And most of them are going to be unhoused or having, significant issues in terms of housing instability.

And that housing instability has to do with how affordable is your housing, if you have a stable occupancy of the Housing and Safety and decency.

Yeah.

So all these things can create a huge, huge problem.

Yeah.

Especially when we are.

And have given money for stuff that already is in the credit card.

From past years.

Yeah.

Property taxes.

Paying for.

School Vouchers, etc., etc.

that we're just.

Like, yeah, we're going to pay it off eventually maybe.

Yeah.

Or I don't know.

The same is true for energy, right?

I mean, Texas is a huge consumer of energy.

We're also a huge producer of energy.

Right.

But the kind of political crisis about kind of how much energy to produce from each different element is also something that the state has to consider.

Right?

So over time, this is going to be something that has to be addressed.

Now, of course, the kind of, you know, the kind of grid failure from a few years back definitely kind of created impetus to sort of make sure that there's some kind of a solution to this.

But all the patches have been just that have been temporary.

So those kinds of long term concerns also have implications to what kind of businesses come here.

You know, what kind of businesses stay here?

How many people move here.

Right.

Those kinds of things get around.

Right.

People are looking for retirement and, you know, they end up sort of choosing North Carolina because, well, at least you've got energy.

You know, you can keep your house warm or cold as needed.

So.

Well.

And that has to do.

Also, for example, in terms of investments with permitting at the county level, at the city level, it has to do with grid operators, right.

Do you really have or do we want a competitive a market has to do with the new, reintroduction of nuclear energy.

And the governor has had some important aspects into, into into that evolution by type of, energy generation.

That is a thousand years completely different than you know.

Chernobyl, Right back in the 80s.

Or 90s, not like it.

Was.

It's not a nuclear reactor.

It still evokes that kind of concern.

And that's going to be.

I will take, you know, a lot of education because these things are safe.

These things are small.

These things can be deployed in two seconds.

So you can, not two seconds, of course, but so you can increase production of energy, bring business etc.

etc.

etc.. Yeah.

Smart growth right.

Yeah exactly.

It's smart growth.

It's smart responsible growth.

Yeah I like that.

That's good.

Yeah.

Cortina 2026.

Exactly.

But we will take this topic in ten years.

Revisit.

We'll revisit this topic in ten years.

But for today that's it.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina.

And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus.

More Party Politics next week.