Funding for Governor's Perspectives with Kent Manahan is made possible by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, committed to helping Americans lead healthier lives and get the care they need.

Additional funding provided by Seton Hall University, Seton Hall School of Law, Connell Foley LLP, and by the Jon S. Corzine Foundation.

[Music] In New Jersey, the governorship is a power post, with much more power than governors in other states.

Here, it's an office that comes with what some historians describe as extraordinary powers.

New Jersey's Constitution gives the chief executive the authority to appoint hundreds and hundreds of positions, including all cabinet members, Supreme Court justices, and Superior Court judges, prosecutors, and all, literally hundreds of state board and commission members.

It presents extraordinary veto power and emergency powers to the governor, along with the ability to craft priorities for what has grown to be an enormous state budget.

All of that power, in a wide-open election, because incumbent governor Phil Murphy can't run again after serving two terms in office, has many coveting the job this year, from both sides of the aisle.

We haven't had a competitive primary election statewide like this in New Jersey, on the Democratic side and Republican side, in decades.

Name recognition is really a good measure of how good a job that Canada has done at getting their name out to the people who might vote for them.

So, if we know your name recognition among the voters of your party, we have a pretty good idea of what the absolute ceiling is of your approval among that party.

We know that turnouts can be higher than the 20% we get normally in one of these primaries, but we don't know if it's going to be 30% or 40%.

We really have absolutely no idea.

And that's a problem.

There are six Democrats on the party's primary ballot next month vying for the nomination.

A couple of mayors, Steve Fulop of Jersey City and Newark's Ras Baraka, two members of the U.S. Congress, Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer, head of New Jersey's Education Association, Sean Spiller, and former New Jersey Senate President Steve Sweeney.

Baraka is promising economic growth and educational opportunity for all students in the state.

Gottheimer has a plan to reduce taxes in New Jersey.

Spiller wants to make the state more affordable.

Fulop wants to make it easier to buy a home.

And he wants to invest more in public schools.

Sherrill is promising to lower energy and health care costs.

And Sweeney wants to increase opportunities for students all across the state.

On the other side of the aisle, in a wide-open race, Republicans see this election as their opportunity.

You have to appeal to the base.

And Trump right now is very, very popular with the base.

It's no different than on the Democratic side.

I mean, they're hopping over each other to prove who's the most progressive, who's the most Andy Kim-like.

And I think both parties have to be a little bit cautious in a purple state like New Jersey, because once you make it through the primary, you still have to be palatable to the rest of the population at large in order to win.

That's what the Republican candidates are counting on.

There are five GOP contenders in that party's primary race.

A current state senator, Jon Bramnick, a former assemblyman, Jack Ciatarelli, a former radio show host, Bill Spadea, former mayor, Mario Kranjac, and later add on the ballot, contractor Justin Barbera.

A sixth candidate, former state senator Ed Durr, dropped out in March and threw his support to Spadea.

What do the Republican candidates stand for?

Ciattarelli wants to cut government spending and lower taxes.

Bramnick is running as the only GOP candidate who doesn't always agree on issues with President Trump.

Spadea wants to take back New Jersey from liberal Democrats and weak Republicans.

Kranjac wants to enact term limits and fight party bosses.

And Barbera wants to draw attention to health care and prison reform.

The Republicans held their first primary debate at Rider University earlier this year.

The hour-long exchange was sometimes difficult to hear answers to reporters' questions.

Jack's talking about two-time losers?

The people that know him best.

Political analysts describe the event as a food fight, short on specifics and long on attempts by most GOP contenders to try to outdo the other on claiming true allegiance to President Trump and his policies.

I choose to listen to the President of the United States, Donald Trump, who told me privately and publicly that he knows I've had his back from the beginning at the escalator.

With regard to being with Donald Trump from the day he came down the escalator, if you go to phonybill.com, you're going to see a video from a podcast in which this guy says that Donald Trump was beaten.

He was tired, lacked courage, lacked commitment, didn't want him to run again.

He endorsed Ron DeSantis, and he also suggested that Trump should have resigned.

The Democratic candidates held their first primary debate earlier, described by one political analyst as a calmer exchange.

You guys are being so kind to each other.

We like each other.

I'm helping him out.

We like each other.

But one that sometimes came up short on current policy specifics by some of the candidates.

Every $5, $10 and everything at a time.

>> I don't want to get rid of the king and make another king.

I'm opposed to kingdoms.

We won the war.

>> When we're trying to represent.

It's an open gubernatorial election year, and many of these candidates, Republicans and Democrats, have long planned and long hoped to be their party's nominee, and then, of course, to be elected governor.

So many candidates, so much more possible confusion for voters, so many choices.

With us now to talk about the upcoming gubernatorial election in New Jersey, not the former governors, as you usually see on this program, but two political observers who have seen their fair share of gubernatorial elections in this state.

Micah Rasmussen, director of the Revovich Institute for American Politics at Rider University, and Brent Johnson, senior political correspondent for The Star-Ledger and NJ.com.

Welcome to the program.

It's so good to have you here to get your views, your perspective on the election coming up.

Thank you.

Micah, to start, 11 candidates running.

Give us your observations on a public interest scale.

How are the candidates registering with voters?

So we're at a time where candidates are appealing to their supporters.

It's very much -- there's not as much of a broad level of interest across the board in New Jersey.

We don't all get to follow the same news anymore.

We're all not following the same media markets anymore.

So everybody's appealing to their pockets of support, and the question is, who can amass the biggest group of supporters before Election Day?

You have some candidates who have organizational support, strong organizational support.

So they've got a little bit of a head start, but you also have outsiders, people who are going without the organizations and trying to build it from scratch.

And because there are so many candidates, there's more of an opportunity to perhaps win this race.

The barrier to winning the race is lower.

The number of votes you need to win the race is lower.

And so it really is anybody's race at this point.

Well, that's interesting.

Brent, so many campaign ads already on the air and have been, mailings.

The candidates have debated.

They've done interviews.

We've seen and heard a lot about their issues and what's important in their campaigns.

What are you watching in terms of gauging voter interest at this point?

It's a really fascinating race because there are so many people, and there's many lanes that people are trying to get.

The candidates are all trying to appeal to different people, and there's a lot going on.

If I'm a voter, I might feel a little overwhelmed.

And that could be a good thing for the candidates if you're trying just to get a sliver of that vote to try and sneak in and win the primary.

But, you know, it feels like every second there's a different campaign ad.

And if I'm the voters, I might not know there's 11 people running.

And, you know, there's still time in the final weeks to get that message across.

But it's the biggest race we've had since 1981 in the state for a governor's race.

You mentioned that in 1981 there were 21 candidates vying for the governorship of New Jersey.

Why do so many covet the office?

Well, we have the most powerful governorship in the nation.

There is more power vested in this governor than any other governorship in the country.

We intentionally did that because we wanted a strong governor who could stand up to the bosses.

That's really number one.

Number two, I think this year these candidates see an opportunity.

They see an open seat, which we don't always have.

They see not having the barrier of the county lines running against them.

So I think more and more are willing to take it on.

The two members of Congress who are running don't have to give up their seat to run because they run in even years for those seats.

So I think it's almost irresistible this year for this powerful office for people to take their shot.

Brent, from your reporting inside these campaigns, generally speaking, what's going on right now?

Because there are so many other candidates to compete against.

They have to watch, of course, their own elections, but they've got to take a look at what's going on for the others who are competing.

Yeah, and you have two very distinct races that have emerged on the Republican side and the Democratic side.

On the Republican side, it's a battle.

The two top candidates, Jack Ciattarelli and Bill Spadea, are both vying for the affection of Trump voters and even for Trump himself.

The question is, will Trump get in and endorse?

And whoever he endorses will become the favorite because polling so far shows Ciattarelli is far ahead.

And on the Democratic side, it's more of a bunch thing.

You have a third of voters are still undecided, from what we can tell.

And you have Mikie Sherrill is a slight front runner, is a little bit more support than anyone.

Behind her is Raz Baraka and Steve Fulop.

And they all have to watch.

And hanging over that race is Trump as well because they're all trying to show I'm going to be the strongest against Trump.

And you have some of the progressives like Fulop and Baraka trying to get the progressive lane.

You have Josh Gottheimer, who's trying to do the affordability lane.

I'm going to lower your taxes.

You have a bit of that from Steve Sweeney.

And you have more of the anti-Trump progressive stuff from Sean Spiller, the teachers union president.

So the Democratic race is really fascinating because everybody seems to be bunched in one place.

And I can't really say who's going to win.

It's going to be come down to election night, really.

Right to the end.

Yeah.

And your opinion has the organization and it's up and running smoothly, at least at this point in the race.

And who's got the personal appeal, the charisma to appeal to voters?

Because sometimes that's even more important than other factors.

Yeah.

So Mikie Sherrill and on the Republican side, Jack Ciattarelli, clearly have the county, the bulk of the county organizations behind them.

The biggest ones, the greatest share of the primary electorate that we expect to come out.

That doesn't mean that the other candidates are without county organization support.

It just means that they've got the lion's share.

She's got about half of the county organizations in terms of the share of the primary electorate.

But in terms of organizations, that's an interesting word because a guy like Steve Fulop, the mayor of Jersey City, has built his own.

And he's done it very effectively.

Week by week, he's bringing more volunteers in.

He's running more candidates with him for the assembly races, running mates.

He is definitely trying to replace the organization in terms of that outsider support, knowing he's not going to get the insider support.

So they all have their various ways of building their organizations.

Again, Mikie relying on the existing organizations, Fulop trying to do it himself, Spiller trying to do it by running on the teachers organization, the teachers union.

Right.

So they've all got their different ways of doing it.

The interesting thing is Brent talked about the bunching up of the field.

We think if we get half a million voters come out on the Democratic side, we think that, again, Cheryl is a nominal favorite at this point.

But the rest of the pack is between maybe twenty five or fifty thousand votes behind them, somewhere in that range.

And so that is not insurmountable for any of them.

And that's where you get into this personal appeal that you're talking about to Steve, to South Jersey voters.

Steve Sweeney represents South Jersey.

He is South Jersey to teachers.

You can get one of your own, you know, so there are all these different lanes, all these different opportunities.

And maybe Cheryl does the best job right now of overarching all of those different lanes of appealing to the broadest mass.

She's got that fantastic bio with the Navy helicopter pilot and the mom prosecutor.

Exactly.

So she's hoping to bridge that divide across the different lanes.

And how do you see it?

I think that, yeah, the undecideds are really what would get it for me is that there's still a large number of people who told pollsters that they don't know who they're going to vote for.

And depends on how that breaks.

Now, you know, if they go behind who they see is the front runner in Mikie Cheryl and just line up behind her, do they say, you know, I kind of like that full guy.

I like that Baraka guy.

I really don't.

I can't say that this is anyone's race to win or to lose right now.

On the Republican side, it's different.

Jack Ciatarelli really clearly has the advantage there.

But Donald Trump, as he is with everything these days, is the X factor.

And we've never had a president like Trump.

So you never know what's going to happen with him.

And we want to talk more about Trump, certainly in the impact here in New Jersey, which is an interesting story in itself.

And he's a resident here, at least a part time resident.

It's hard to run for governor, isn't it?

I'll leave that to you.

You know better than I do.

Yeah, it is.

How hard is it to run for governor?

It's tough.

In New Jersey.

Just because of the media markets, you have to appeal to both the New York media market and to the Philadelphia media market.

One, that's costly.

Two, it's tough.

And you never know what's going to break through.

I had a teacher, she teaches in Woodbridge, and she had one of her students, knowing what I do for a living, say to her, "Oh, I saw that Josh Gottheimer guy on TV say he's going to lower my taxes."

So that got, he's not a primary voter, obviously, because he's about 10 years old.

But you never know what's going to break through.

That might break through for someone.

And especially with a divided field like this, it's all over the place.

Yeah.

You've got to raise a lot of money to qualify for the full matching funds.

Now we have the outside money as well, the PAC money.

The inside money is the campaign money.

The outside money is the supporting money that you can raise.

You've got to do all of that.

You've got to become fluent in the issues.

If you eat, breathe, and sleep them every day, the way that the mayors do or the way that Sweeney does, you're conversant.

If you have been in Washington and you've been fighting for New Jersey and Washington, yeah, it is a little tougher to get up to speed.

And I think it shows in some of the forums that we've had.

And there's going to be a lot of media attention on this race because there's only one other race in the country electing a governor, and that's Virginia.

So you mentioned the North Jersey, South Jersey, and the fact that it is almost like two states.

It is.

And you have to run a campaign for the North and the South.

How tough is that?

That is.

And you're seeing that play out in this race because you have Steve Sweeney, who's the South Jersey guy, and then more people like Gottheimer and Sheryl up in the North.

There's more people up in the North, though.

And people are like, oh, Sweeney has half the state to him.

But no, there's a whole other state and a lot more people live there.

And, you know, and plus, New Jersey is an interesting place to live and run because it's so unique and has so many different identities and to appeal to everyone, regardless of your geography.

It's a diverse population with a lot of different people here.

And so it's interesting.

Well, you mentioned Jack Ciattarelli because this is his third time running to become governor of New Jersey.

What impact does that have?

The fact that he's been there before.

What does your reporting show you about him at this point in the race and how he's appealing?

I heard him recently on an interview, and he is very conversant about the issues of this state.

He's had, you know, many years to do this now.

He's been doing this for eight, nine years, and it sounds like he has his talking points down.

Yeah, name recognition obviously helps.

You know, people have learned time to see his name, even if they can't spell it or pronounce it as well as they should.

People now know him because they've had three chances to see him, especially after last time when he came within three points of beating Governor Murphy.

So he's a name now.

And New Jersey kind of has a history of somebody having to run more than one time in order to achieve the chief executive office.

And he never really stopped running.

He kept on getting around the state in between his runs.

Republicans in the state, rank and file Republicans, really feel like they know him.

He was at the rubber chicken circuit all during all this time, every time, and he intended to keep himself out there.

After he came so close in that race against Murphy -- I was just going to say, after he did better in the previous race than people would have thought in this state.

He said right away, "I'm running again."

And it never really -- he sort of left the pack, the rest of the pack behind him, I think, to some extent.

We mentioned the line, and in this election, the county line is not part of the election, per a judge's ruling, to take that away.

What kind of impact has that had for the candidates not to have the party line, this go around?

Party line, the county line, whatever you want to call it, is an interesting thing to describe to people because they kind of know it exists, but a lot of people don't.

They don't realize the immense power the line has had over the last century, that if a county party endorses you, you get the top ballot spot, and it makes it much more likely for you to win, and it keeps party bosses, for lack of a better term, in power.

Out of the race.

Yeah, and it basically helps them choose the candidate that should win.

For years, it was people would get into a diner, the power brokers in the state, and say, "This is who should be the nominee for governor," and that's how it's been.

And this is the first time where that's not the case.

You have people saying, "That's not how it should be done, and I'm going to run differently."

It's Steve Fulop's whole campaign.

You hear a bit of that from Baraka, too.

And, yeah, the county line is, it not being there changes the whole game.

What about then, without the county line, how important are organizational backing for each of the candidates?

It's still very important.

Like the environmental groups in the state, the police and firefighters union, the workers union in the, unions in the state.

Those are still yeah, you still have to put together a coalition.

You want to be without the lines, you want to be the best-known candidate.

You want to be the best-financed candidate.

You can't rely on that county organizational support.

The county organizations are not without power, either.

They still retain all of their knowledge on how do I best win campaigns in the, and the county chairs are still around.

Their neighborhoods, exactly.

They know that the best.

So they still count.

They just, there's an opportunity now for somebody to win without it.

I think that's really what has to happen.

But they have to be the superior campaign.

They have to be able to run better than people know how to run in their own counties.

And so it all becomes very important.

And as we're seeing, interestingly, we've talked a little bit about 1981.

By agreement, there was a law in 1981 that they weren't going to run with lines.

And so that was a lineless primary.

And that was one of the reasons why we had so many candidates in that race and why everybody thought that they had a chance.

It was also one of the first races in which we had public financing.

Again, people thought that there were lower barriers to run.

So it attracted a lot of people.

Well, what happened in that race?

Jim Florio wound up getting a solid south and was able to have a lot of candidates breaking up the North Jersey vote, even though it's far more populous.

About two-thirds of the votes come from North Jersey, but they were breaking it up.

So he wound up winning the nomination by virtue of getting a very strong South Jersey, exactly what Sweeney's trying to do in this race.

Well, we've talked about money a little bit.

North Jersey Congressman Josh Gottheimer has a lot of it.

And there was a time people like you would say that the person with the most cash was the person most likely to win.

How's he doing with all that cash in the state?

Is his campaign catching on with voters?

I think I wrote about him in a recent newsletter that he raises more money than God.

And it's true, that's his reputation, is that he can-- and that's what makes it valuable.

In the final days, if you want to put your face on television in between every commercial during Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune, Josh Gottheimer can raise the money to do that, which is--that's something polling doesn't pick up, that you don't know.

In the final days, Josh Gottheimer can spend a lot and get his face on TV.

So even though he may not be registering major in polling early on, you never know with him because he can spend.

And there's still time to go in this race.

The uphill climb for him, I'm sorry to say, is that he's a little more conservative than Democrats generally are.

So he's got an uphill battle as far as trying to say to Democrats, I'm still your guy, even though I've been very moderate in my congressional voting record.

What about the issues?

What's resonating with voters?

What are the top three, four issues that are important in this race for voters to decide?

Well, Trump, Trump, Trump is in both sides of the race.

You hear--because on the Republican side, you say, like, you know, I'm the Trumpiest because they're all trying to get Trump's attention, Trump voters' attention.

On the Democratic side, I'm going to fight Trump.

You hear that from almost every--I think most of the campaigns have some form of I'm going to fight Trump, and Elon Musk is also a boogeyman now.

So that's--and then affordability, because right now what's going on is, you know, you have the governor's proposing tax increases, utility hikes are about to go up, which Democrats are not happy about.

And the state is always expensive.

You know, ask anyone who's watching this right now.

They know how expensive their bills are and their homes are.

So those are always the big deal.

And you're not hearing as much about abortion as you have in past years.

Immigration?

Immigration a bit because of what's going on with the Trump administration, but it's all funneled through the prism of Trump.

Everything is kind of like the catch-all, whether you're pro or anti-Trump, but Trump is the face of all of it.

So affordability and Trump, those are the two top.

And third, I guess, immigration, if you want to break it off.

Well, I said we're going to talk about Donald Trump, and we are.

But I have one more question about affordability, because it is such a huge issue, not only here in New Jersey, but across the country for races.

So here in New Jersey and for governors in general, how much impact can a governor really have on affordability?

It's a good question.

You'll often hear governors say, "I don't set the property taxes."

That's something you should talk to your local school board about.

But we all know that New Jersey state government sends about half of the money back to school districts in the form of school aid.

It sends an enormous amount of money back to towns in the way of municipal aid.

And so, actually, the state and the state budget has a lot to do with how much property taxes you pay or how much of an increase you pay.

There are a lot of districts in this state right now that are having to face decisions about closing schools or shutting down athletic programs.

And that is something that could be a problem for Democrats.

Affordability, let's face it, the party that's been in power for the last 25 years probably has to answer for that, and that's been the Democrats.

However, they're probably feeling the wind at their sails a little bit at this point because even though they thought they'd be on the defensive, now you've got a whole host of affordability issues related to Trump and the tariffs and how the party that maybe was going to be in the offense has some defending of their own to do this year about affordability.

A lot of unknowns for voters.

Well, Donald Trump, the president of the United States, a part-time resident of this state in Bedminster where he has a golf club and spends a lot of time in the summer months here.

Who's he going to endorse?

Is he going to endorse?

What is your reporting showing you?

What are your expectations?

I write a weekly newsletter, and one of the things I check in on every week is where is Donald Trump on the Republican side so far.

That's been the underlying situation in the Republican primary is is Donald Trump going to jump in and who's he going to back?

And both of the main top rivals, Ciattarelli and Spadea, are both working behind the scenes and have Trump allies working for them.

And have been with Trump recently, posing for pictures and using those as part of their campaign.

Jack Ciattarelli took a helicopter from Atlantic City to fly to take a picture with Donald Trump and meet with him.

And the next day, Bill Spadea met with him in Bedminster.

So that's-- because that could make or break the campaign-- make or break the primary on either-- if it goes to Ciattarelli, that pretty much puts the race away.

And that's exactly what happened two weeks ago when President Trump endorsed Jack Ciattarelli, calling him a terrific America First candidate for New Jersey.

Polls show that Donald Trump is very popular in the Republican Party and with Republican primary voters, and that there's been specific questions.

If he endorses, will it help you make a decision in this race?

And people say yes.

Trump is also important on the Democratic side because those campaigns have to argue how anti-Trump they are, and they are doing that.

Right.

So this is where the two members of Congress, Gottheimer and Sherrill, have an argument to make.

I have stood up to Trump already in Washington.

I'm going to do the same thing from here.

Phillips got a novel way to do it.

He can point to a building in one of his commercials where he says, I stopped the Trumps from developing this building.

And so they've all got their novel ways of saying that they're going to stand up to Trump.

And immigration is very important because you have to remember, right now they are trying to appeal to Democratic voters, and Democratic voters are very predisposed to stand-- you know, who can best stand up to Trump?

And so they're all trying to lay the most claim to that at this point.

What are the issues, the policies that are most appealing to voters here in New Jersey who are Trump supporters, to Republicans and maybe some moderate Democrats?

Well, immigration is maybe the one that Trump is retaining the most support for right now.

We're in a time where his support is rapidly eroding.

He had a big advantage on the economy after the election and going into swearing in and passed that.

But now that given all the uncertainties he's created in the economy with his tariffs, his support on the economy has turned around.

And so his big remaining strength among his supporters right now is immigration.

And so you will hear a lot of talk about this from the Republican field.

They'll talk about it in terms of a crime issue.

They'll talk about it in terms of a border issue.

And so this is the one that you're going to hear the most on because it's the clearest advantage for Trump still at this point.

We should point out that Donald Trump did much better in the '24 election than he did in 2020 with New Jerseyans.

A big surprise that even impacted Governor Murphy's race for re-election.

We would say, is this a test then for Donald Trump, this race in New Jersey, and will there be close attention paid to it because of that, because of what you're saying, Micah, about the concerns of what he's deciding on now in terms of tariffs and so forth?

Yeah, usually New Jersey and Virginia, the two off-season gubernatorial elections, are a litmus test for going into the next midterm, which is next year, and especially for Trump because, yeah, he performed a lot better in New Jersey than expected and Kamala Harris did not perform that well, even though she won the state.

It just wasn't as big as they thought.

And so people are going to look at this and go, like, especially in the general election, is Trump still as viable as he was last year?

And that's a sign that Republicans should be worried next year going into the midterms.

Have you seen a change in New Jersey's demographics in terms of Democrats, Republicans?

It's a Democratic state, has always been a blue-leaning state, but more Republicans are now registering to vote than Democrats, but Democrats still hold the lead.

Of course, independent voters are very important.

Have you seen a change in what does your reporting show about that in the demographics of New Jersey?

Especially they're feeling bullish in Hudson and Passaic County where he made major inroads, especially among Latino voters.

So you're seeing that there.

Then he always has, you know, the northwestern part of the state.

And if you drive through Ocean County, you certainly see your share of Trump signs.

So he does have pockets of support here, but the really heavily populated places have always leaned Democratic.

And that's what made Hudson and Passaic so interesting because you'd think those are heavily Democratic areas, and they're not.

I don't know how well that's going to translate in November.

We're a whole year away from when he said he was going to fix the economy.

So that's the big question.

Republicans are month by month, week by week, out registering, out working.

And Democrats are, you know, this is a long period of time for Democrats to have been in the majority.

I think a little bit decadent, a little bit resting on their laurels.

And so Republicans are hungrier for it.

They definitely have a sense of enthusiasm, and they are working as hard as they can.

Are the party labels now in New Jersey a difficulty perhaps for, particularly on the Democratic side, for the candidates who are running, in that typically Democrats have a liberal, more liberal leaning, and Republicans more conservative?

Do you see any impact in that on the candidates and how they're running their races?

That's a great question.

And they're identifying.

Yeah, I mean, and also because the second largest voting bloc after Democrats in the state are independents, or unaffiliated voters.

So, you know, those may be people that don't fall in either.

I know plenty of those type of people who don't identify with the party.

So, yeah, I guess you kind of have to appeal to everyone these days to run in a state like New Jersey, which everyone is saying is getting more purple.

So maybe the D and the R before a name or after a name who's running isn't what it used to be, even here in New Jersey.

It's a fair point.

I think particularly in South Jersey, South Jersey for a while Democrats were really cooking.

At this point.

More liberal, more woke, if you want to use that word, more progressive, gotten to be a little bit of a dirty word in blue collar South Jersey.

And Jack Ciattarelli sensed this in the last election.

He spent an enormous amount of his energy in South Jersey and his time, and he struck gold.

That was the area where Governor Murphy was struggling the most.

He was doing much better in more progressive North Jersey.

And so I think there is ground to be made up.

The South Jersey Democrats are not on the expanse the way they once were in South Jersey.

And so I think that'll be an area we'll see Jack spend a lot of his time in the fall again.

So has it been a good idea for New Jersey to hold a gubernatorial election a year after the presidential election?

Most states don't do that.

Obviously, Virginia is the only other state with a gubernatorial election.

A good idea.

Maybe not if you're if you want to have party power, like if you're the party in power, the party not in power.

But for independent voters and for.

Yeah, it means it brings attention to your state.

You get to have most of the microscope on you.

And.

You know, I think that's a good thing.

But, you know, if you're hoping to have coattails or not have coattails, then, yeah, it's not a good idea.

But I think about this a lot because New Jersey very deliberately set out the odd year elections to not be under the influence.

Whatever was going on there to get a lot of attention.

Absolutely.

But we definitely get a lower turnout for our odd year elections.

We will have, if we're lucky, about 40 percent turnout this fall or that's what we had at least in 2021.

And that's kind of poor when you think about electing our most powerful governor in the nation.

And so there is thought sometimes not serious thought, not a concerted effort in any way.

But could we have more voter participation if we were in those even numbered years the way everybody else is?

Governor Murphy, two terms in office.

I would expect the Democrats are looking for his endorsement.

Not going to happen in the primary, but in the general election.

How do you see that working out?

He's a tough one.

Murphy has been a relatively popular governor.

Polls show that he's in he's, you know, in the in the higher end there.

But he's you know, he's a very dirty word for Republicans and Republicans use him as a cudgel whenever they can.

So I certainly think whoever is the Democratic nominee would take Murphy's endorsement.

I don't know how close they want to run to Murphy's name saying I'm going to be Murphy 2.0.

But, yeah, they'll take it.

You know, you don't turn down a sitting governor's endorsement unless he's a toxic, toxic figure.

And he's not in the Democratic.

And who would you expect?

Can you speculate a little bit on who that endorsement might be?

Yeah, I mean, I certainly think if Mikie Sherrill wins the nomination, he will very much support her in the general election.

It'd be interesting to see if Steve Fulop wins the nomination because they don't have.

That's what I was looking at.

Yeah, I mean, he unendorsed his wife when she ran for U.S. Senate last year.

And Fulop is has not been very pro Murphy during this primary.

So that would be a very fascinating situation to see.

Yes, they all recognize, though, I was surprised in the first debate, which was held in February out of the gate.

All of the candidates tried to strike a difference with Murphy, the Democrats.

And this was a recognition that New Jersey doesn't often give three terms in a row to the same party, that there wouldn't be a lot of support from voters for a third Murphy term.

You've got to strike out a different path.

And so on issues like New Jersey transit, they've said, well, we would give Murphy struggling marks there.

You know, we would do something completely different.

And so I think they will do their best to try to distinguish themselves.

So I hear a little bit of history here and in a possible prediction that this is a Republican's turn to become governor.

History is because of the history.

And, you know, I mean, the only person who's defied that historically is Governor Hughes, was the only time where we went from two terms of governor minor to two terms of Governor Hughes.

Other than that, New Jersey has always swung back and forth.

And so checks and balances.

Absolutely.

Voters tend to self-balance.

You're absolutely right about that.

And so Jack will have that on.

Chitorelli will have that on his side for sure.

Democrats will argue we can handle it.

We can be different.

We can give you a contrast.

We can give you something new.

Do you see, Brent, the issue of the state budget becoming an issue for both sides, Democrats and Republicans, Republicans making an issue the size of the governor's newly proposed budget since Murphy has taken office?

It's grown by over 20 billion dollars.

And the Democrats, will they have to defend that?

And the Republicans, will they make that a real issue?

Yes.

Run on.

How do you see that?

You could do a whole show on the state budget this year, which is next year is going to be a whole nother story.

But but yeah, it's because everyone's worried the funding funding cuts from D.C. could cause the budget to blow up.

Murphy wants a certain number of tax increases, although I don't expect him to get many of them.

And then there's the utility hikes, which don't directly tie to the state budget.

But that's all people if you're thinking about fiscal issues, that's a sore spot for Democrats because Republicans will hit them.

You know, they're going to tax more.

You can see the commercials now.

You want more years of Murphy tax hikes.

Elect Democrats.

How does a candidate pivot once they win the primary?

How do they pivot into a general election to run against either the Democrat or the Republican?

Whoever on the other side.

Boy, oh, boy.

It's going to be very much dependent on which nominees get chosen.

Right.

I think in the case of Baraka, there's a lot of talk about whether or not he is he's very progressive voice.

He has absolutely excited a lot of Democrats.

But is he New Jersey's moderate cup of tea?

We typically vote for the more moderate candidate in the fall.

And he's sort of the word you hear again and again is unapologetic, progressive.

So he would have a lot to figure out as far as how that goes.

There are other Democrats in the race like Gottheimer to some extent, even Cheryl or Philip, who certainly Sweeney, who are more moderate as well.

So they would have less of a pivot to make.

I think in the case of Ciattarelli, it will be very interesting to see how he if he's the nominee navigates Trump.

He has definitely he supported him early this time.

In other cycles, he did not come out so early.

He opposed him or didn't endorse him in other strongly.

He's been there.

Absolutely.

Absolutely.

In this time out, equally strong for him early, consistently through.

He's going to have a lot to answer for this time if Democrats have their way and and Jackson nominee.

This time there's a photo, too, meaning he took a helicopter to fly to be with Trump and Ben Minster.

There's a photo of the two of them together.

You didn't have that in the past, which works well in the primary because you can you can show, hey, I'm Spadea says he's the Trump candidate.

I, I appeared to Trump and spoke with him for 20 minutes in the general.

You're going to be like, look, Donald Trump's guy who who went to bed Mr. Meet with him is trying to be your governor.

And it depends on what segment of the population will will be against that or for that.

But he's definitely a more Trumpy candidate this time than he was last time.

So that's it.

But the flip side of that, you'll hear people say, well, they were going to tie him to Trump anyway.

So this is no matter who, you know, John Bramnick was running a campaign willing to criticize Trump in the Republican primary.

Even if he gets through, people say, well, they're going to tie him to Trump anyway.

Often candidates bring in another group of people to run that general election campaign because that pivot is so important.

And there's a whole lot of strategy that has to go into it.

Right.

Yeah.

The it's it's like running two very different races, especially in a state like this.

So it's going to be very interesting to watch what happens come November.

It'll be a whole different election for more things for people to watch, but no longer 11 candidates just to at that point.

Well, Governor Murphy is winding down his two terms in office.

What do you see for Governor Murphy next?

That's a great question.

I had him come in and speak to class recently, and I tried to get him to answer that question.

I have always believed strongly that no matter what it is, it will involve sports of some kind.

I think that's his great love.

I think he will take his time to figure out what it is.

And so whether it's professional sports, whether it's soccer, whether it's a commissioner spot that comes open or an athletic conference, I do think that the next thing we see out of him is going to be something involving his great love of sports.

And how do you see it, Brent?

That's fascinating.

I talked to him not that long ago and I asked him that question.

I said, so what are you going to do?

And he said, well, I'm going to take a vacation first.

I saw Christie take a vacation.

You know, there's always talk.

Could he be a leader of the party in some way?

There was talk maybe he would have been the new Democratic national chair.

And he basically said no to that.

And he said no to being Rutgers University's president.

And there was thought that if Harris had won the presidential election, maybe he'd become ambassador to Italy.

He used to be ambassador to Germany or maybe his wife would become ambassador to Italy.

That didn't work out.

So it's kind of a question mark.

But sports is definitely something.

I mean, the World Cup's coming here.

I don't know if he'll be involved in that.

There was even I think Steve Pelletti, my column, the sports columnist for my organization, asked him, what about being Rutgers athletic director?

And he kind of laughed.

It's like, ah, but that's not out of the realm of possibility.

You know, he's an interesting he's got a lot of different backgrounds.

So he can do a number of things.

In the time we have left, just very briefly, the legacy of Phil Murphy as governor of New Jersey.

I think very, very clear in his mind is writing the state's finances after many, many years of not making the pension payment, of bond rating downgrades.

He's very proud of the fact that he made those full pension payments.

He's gotten New Jersey's bond ratings up.

New Jersey is credit worthy again.

And I think historically that's important because New Jersey historically has been a very careful place with our money.

And we did get that out of whack for a long time.

And so I think that more than anything else, there are a lot of things you can point to specifically cannabis or the minimum wage, all of those big policy achievements.

But I think more than anything else, that's the difference between before and after.

And there's certainly time left in the governor's term.

What do you see for Governor Murphy's legacy?

I think it's like a tale of two terms.

The first term, he was very progressive.

He said he wanted to turn New Jersey into the California of the East.

And in many ways, you saw that.

He instituted a millionaires tax hike in minimum wage.

Marijuana became illegal under referendum.

And the second term, he kind of pulled that back a bit.

He almost lost the Jack Ciattarelli last time.

And you certainly talk about affordability, and that's where Republicans have hit him.

They'll say that's the budget's gotten out of whack and gotten more expensive.

And he will say he spent that money on pensions and schools and things that have mattered and getting the state back on financial footing.

So I think you'll hear more about his first term a little bit as we look back at the Murphy history and the things that he did to make New Jersey a different place under Democratic rule.

But again, his polling has always been it's never been 70 percent.

It's never been 20 percent.

He's always been kind of in the middle when it comes to polling.

So, you know, if you're a Republican, you certainly think the last eight years were terrible.

If you're a Democrat, I think you're fairly happy.

Well, Micah Rasmussen, Brent Johnson, thank you so much for sharing your perspective on this important gubernatorial election year in New Jersey.

We appreciate your time and your views.

>> Thank you.

And now let's take a look at the history of the office of governor of New Jersey.

So what makes New Jersey's governorship so powerful and why do so many seek it?

Well, the office comes with a great deal of authority as laid out in the state constitution.

And it was New Jersey's 1947 constitution that sealed the deal.

That document was actually the third revision involving the power of the office.

The process happened gradually over the centuries.

William Livingston was the state's first governor.

He was elected not by the people, but by the legislature and actually had the longest tenure of any governor to date from 1776 to 1790, serving during the Revolutionary War.

But Livingston had very little power.

The framers of the state's first constitution in 1776 wanted to be sure no one person would ever be as powerful as a king.

The position had stature, but limited responsibility.

After all, the United States of America was now an independent nation recognized by Great Britain through the Treaty of Paris in 1783.

The groundwork for that new republic was getting underway.

But while the new governor had stature, he had limited responsibility.

In 1844, the second constitution was drafted to shift governmental power, which had been vested primarily with the legislature, over to the executive branch.

As it turned out, though, the powers of the office only modestly improved the governor's authority.

Leading the state had its challenges, and over time, even that limited authority competed with New Jersey's long history of corruption.

Political bosses, people hiding in the shadows of government, went way back in parts of the state.

These political power brokers weren't elected.

People didn't even know their names.

And that was the point.

They controlled the vote, and they worked to appoint corrupt judges, prosecutors, and legislators.

There was lots of money to be made staying in the shadows.

It was all about taxing railroads and corporations.

In turn, those railroads and companies were shielded from prosecution.

What developed, according to historians, was a kind of culture among New Jersey residents that people didn't have to pay for things, that special interests would foot bills.

And all of that money being spread around kept politicians beholden to the political bosses.

And that, in turn, kept the people happy and fostered an atmosphere in which voters didn't want to or even bother to ask questions about accountability and who was in charge.

The political party's county chairman in the 21 counties really ran New Jersey.

The strengthening of the governor was, I think, an effort to undercut their power, undercut the power of the political parties, and run a much more effective government.

To give an historical perspective on the state's evolution of gubernatorial power, we rely on a series of interviews from a previously produced public television documentary examining how New Jersey's governorship evolved over time.

In 1947, there was a third revision of the state constitution, dramatically reversing course, bringing more transparency to government under the authority of a new constitution and a more powerful chief executive.

Governor Alfred E. Driscoll believed the time was right after the Second World War and that the people and lawmakers would agree to the need to create a more powerful executive branch.

As a result, a new state constitution was considered and studied.

And finally, what was created was a document that still guarantees the authority of one of the most powerful governorships in the country.

It laid the groundwork for a new kind of governor in America, one that many states still look to with awe.

This person gets to appoint all the judges, other states elect judges.

Not here in New Jersey, they all get picked by the governor.

Every cabinet officer, every judge, literally thousands of members to boards and commissions.

Being able to appoint judges and appoint commissioners and all the other people you can appoint in New Jersey was always looked on with great envy by most of the other governors.

Other governors would just shake their heads and say, "You get to appoint all those people?

Boy, I wish I had that power."

When you say, "Yeah, all the prosecutors, all the judiciary except for one level that the chief justice gets to appoint," they just were amazed at it.

In New Jersey, the governor can serve two four-year consecutive terms.

In many other states, the governor only serves for two years before having to campaign and raise funds for a second two-year term.

In New Jersey, there are no competitors in terms of a state elected position because there is no elected lieutenant governor.

That person runs on the same ticket with the governor.

And there is no elected attorney general, secretary of state, or treasurer.

Those cabinet positions are all appointed by the governor.

Here, the legislature can't really get anything accomplished without the governor, who has to approve and sign laws, and who can even rewrite lawmakers' proposed legislation.

The governor also has the extraordinary power of crafting and submitting the state budget, not the legislature, as is done in numerous other states.

You present the budget.

It is your budget.

In some states, it's not.

In some states, the lieutenant governor puts it together.

In some states, it's the legislature that has the initiative on the budget process, not the governor.

When you begin the process, you say, "Here's how much money we expect to have for the coming fiscal year."

And in New Jersey, that number is the sole possession of the governor.

And this is my plan.

Thank you very much.

[applause] The real secret power the governor has is the governor gets to certify the revenues.

So at the end of the day, the governor can make up out of whole cloth, or can talk to economists, talk to the treasurer, and say, "I believe the revenues of the state of New Jersey will be, for the sake of the story, $30 billion, and not a penny more."

The powers of the New Jersey governor are broadened further through the ability to conditionally veto legislation and to be able to line item veto appropriation bills.

That can be done in whole or in part to any single item in a piece of legislation that appropriates taxpayer funds.

The New Jersey legislature's got to have a two-thirds majority to override.

And that is very difficult to pull off, and in some states it's rarely pulled off, and it's not pulled off often in New Jersey.

That is something that makes the governor very, very powerful, particularly when exercising the conditional veto.

Our president of the United States can't conditionally veto things.

The governor of New Jersey can.

In 1977, then-governor Brendan Byrne tested the powers of the office, taking extraordinary action to curtail what was then expanding development in the southern part of the state.

Byrne became a champion of protecting a huge expanse of forest land, spreading over seven counties in that part of the state.

He issued a far-reaching executive order with no legislative authority.

That essentially stopped all building, and he said at the end of the executive order, this executive order will stay in effect until the legislature enacts a statute which substantially accomplishes the goals of this executive order.

He sat down and signed a piece of paper that took something like a million and a half acres of New Jersey.

People were stunned.

Some were appalled, not only that he did it, but that he was able to do it and get away with it.

The Pinelands comprises over a million acres of the state's ecosystem, about a quarter of the state, and is a necessary water supply for a vast region.

It's the largest forested area on the eastern seaboard between Maine and Florida's Everglades.

All building permits ceased under Byrne's order, and developers sued the state.

But eventually, it was realized the state Supreme Court would uphold the governor's order.

The high court made it clear that the governor's executive order was constitutional, and in the end, 1.1 million acres in the southern part of the state would become preserved and protected land for the good of future generations.

The legislature eventually gave in, and in 1979 passed the Pinelands Protection Act.

That has been commented on time and time again as the most extensive use of an executive order in history.

Along with all the executive branch's power comes tremendous responsibility and opportunity.

In every state, a governor has responsibilities.

But there's historically been a divided nature in this state between North Jersey and South Jersey, a feeling that divides the state into two New Jerseys, one part close to Philadelphia, the other close to New York.

That can be challenging and requires a strong chief executive to lead and to bring about consensus with the people and with the legislature as an equal branch of government.

Proposing initiatives on tax reform, school funding, mass transit, and environmental protection does require some degree of intestinal fortitude.

At the same time, there are some built-in limits to the powers of the office in this state.

It's called "home rule," and local rule is key in New Jersey.

It can be an impediment to what a governor wants to try to get done.

There are some 564 municipalities, local governments, and for what's considered to be a small state by any measure, that's a lot.

Each town has its own power, and that can put some restrictions on a governor.

Mayors and local governing committees finance their own schools and police and fire departments, all of which are property tax-dependent, paid for by local residents.

Home rule enables you to have another big dividing line between rich and poor.

It's a system based on financing your activities, your schools, your police protection, through local property taxes.

We have so many layers of government that it's really extraordinary, and we don't need them all, and they cost money.

And when you're responsible for the budget and people look to you for taxes, they often forget things like property tax are, the state doesn't collect it, the state doesn't spend it.

That happens at the local level, yet the governor's the one who gets blamed when property taxes go up.

You can reduce income taxes, sales taxes, even corporate business taxes, but the tax that everybody feels, that everyone really thinks about, is the property tax.

And governors are simply unable to dramatically impact that.

A governor can have great connection with the people.

A governor gets attention through the media.

That gives the governor a bully pulpit.

The governor is responsible for assuring the state's laws are faithfully executed, and that the operations of the executive branch are carried out.

The governor can declare a state of emergency, can call in the National Guard.

The governor can grant pardons and call the legislature into special sessions.

The governor is the chief executive officer of the entire state.

In New Jersey, that's nine million people.

During his term, Governor Tom Kaine looked to preserve land through a statewide policy in the sensitive wetlands, a huge vital watershed area in the northern part of the state.

Kaine issued an executive order ignoring the legislative process.

He realized the importance of protecting this unique ecosystem, a valuable natural resource that provides essential benefits for the people, for animals, and the environment.

The builders immediately went to the Supreme Court and asked for an injunction, which I knew they would.

And I didn't know whether I'd gone too far or not.

I really didn't.

Because that's really stretching the powers.

And the court refused to give an injunction.

They said, "We'll take it to trial."

But the builders couldn't wait.

Time is money for a builder.

And they came into my office and said, "You win."

In 1987, Governor Kaine signed New Jersey's Freshwater Wetlands Protection Act into law.

The action made the state one of the first in the nation to assume oversight for statewide freshwater wetlands.

Governors can't be expected to solve all of the state's problems during their terms.

Times change.

Needs change.

Tax revenues change.

But a governor is elected to take care of the state to the best of their ability.

That's a responsibility that doesn't change.

The 1947 Constitution is a clear and resolute path to power for the chief executive.

As former Governor Jim Florio once said, "A state must look to its chief executive, the governor, to enact change for the good of the state."

And as former Governor Christy Whitman has said, "The 1947 Constitution gives the state a center, a place to look at where the buck stops."

Funding for Governor's Perspectives with Kent Manahan has been made possible by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, committed to helping Americans lead healthier lives and get the care they need.

Additional funding provided by Seton Hall University, Seton Hall School of Law, Connell Foley LLP, and by the Jon S. Corzine Foundation.

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