Narrator: Presentation of Idaho Reports on Idaho Public Television is made possible through the generous support of the Laura Moore Cunningham Foundation, committed to fulfilling the Moore and Bettis family legacy of building the great state of Idaho.

By the Friends of Idaho Public Television.

And by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

Melissa Davlin: Week two of the Legislature kicked off with the Budget Committee approving billions of dollars in spending.

Tonight, we'll talk about that flood of appropriations and the real flood risk to Idaho communities.

I'm Melissa Davlin.

Idaho Reports starts now.

Hello and welcome to Idaho Reports.

This week, we hear results from the ninth annual Boise State University Public Policy Survey.

Then Kevin Richert of Idaho Education News joins me to discuss the week that was.

But first, no matter where you are in Idaho, you likely got hit by winter storms this week.

But how did those storms affect Idaho snowpack and what can we expect for the coming year?

David Hokema, chair of the Idaho Water Supply Committee, joins me to discuss the statewide outlook.

David, thank you so much for joining us today.

So what what is the snowpack like statewide right now?

David Hoekema: Well, a lot of people, Melissa, have especially in this valley, got hit hard by snow and we're seeing school closures.

You know, a lot of things are impacting us because of the depth of snow.

And the snow in Boise has already exceeded what's normal for the year.

But that's not the case as you go northward up into McCall.

I was up in McCall this weekend for some skiing, and the snow there is really low compared to what it typically is.

Part of that is because we started off with a really abnormally warm winter, especially the month of December.

And so we had the warmth.

It was also pretty dry in December.

And when you're warm and dry, it's really hard to build snow.

And when these storms came in, they hit mostly to the south.

So right now, all the basins along the Idaho southern border are loaded with snow.

They're over 100% of normal.

Some of them are already up to 70 or more percentage of the typical annual peak, which the typical snow peaks around April 1st.

So if in January, you're already 75, 80% of the way there, that's pretty spectacular.

But when you go north of us, we're looking at maybe 30% of the typical peak snowpack.

Davlin: When you say north of us, you're talking northern Idaho?

Hoekema: Yeah, northern Idaho.

From where we're at here, all the way up to the border.

We're looking at 70% of normal for this time of year.

In the Boise Basin.

And that corresponds to 48% of the typical peak.

So we've got about half of our snow that we need so far for the year.

So we've got another half to go, but we're not keeping up with climatology at this point.

We've been catching up, but we still have a little ways to go.

We've got at least another inch of water in the snowpack we need, which is about equivalent to another foot to get back to a normal snowpack.

And our probability of getting there is about a 30% probability at this point.

But the good news is we don't need to get all the way up to a normal snowpack this year because of reservoir conditions in the Boise.

But as you progress further north into northern Idaho, they were coming out of drought last year.

They have really low base flows and the snowpack is even lower up there.

It's in the 30% of maybe approaching peak.

And so on the clear water basin, they just came out of record breaking low snowpack, but they only have maybe a 10% probability of getting a normal snowpack.

And there they really need that snow because they've got the low base flows, they got the drought from last year.

Davlin: So it really varies depending on where you are, region by region.

Looking forward, especially when we're talking about North Idaho, is it possible for them to be able to make up that ground this year and get out of that drought that they're in and get to normal or close to normal snowpack levels?

Hoekema: Yeah, the chances are about 10%, like I was saying.

In the clear water basin, it's a little higher at the border, but the probability is pretty low of them coming out of drought, especially with this being a strong El Nino year.

And there's a pretty strong signal, relatively speaking, with El Nino and northern Idaho.

Davlin: That's a lot of precipitation, right?

Hoekema: That tends toward drought.

So El Nino's tend to be drought in northern Idaho.

They tend to be really wet in the south western United States and sometimes that impacts southern Idaho as well.

So we don't have an El Nino signal in southern Idaho.

Davlin: When we're talking about drought in southern Idaho, Magic Valley, we're talking about a lot of times the impacts on AG and the reservoir levels.

When we're talking about drought in north Idaho where there's more forest, for those who aren't familiar, what are the impacts of drought in a forested area of the state?

Hoekema: In a forested area, it can be fire, fire danger.

Also, hydropower generation gets impacted when you have less water in the river.

Davlin: How about flood risk?

You talked a lot about the north part of the state.

In the southern part of the state, we've experienced flooding in the last ten years.

Can we expect flooding in the southern part of the state after now that we're warming up?

Hoekema: You know, especially along the southern border, those basins like the Portneuf river going into Pocatello last year, they had really high flows.

They had some flooding there.

And so the base flows there right now are really high and they've got a high snowpack.

So along the southern border of Idaho, those basins coming out of that area, yes, I would say there's a significant possibility of flood risk there.

On the Snake River itself there probably will be flood control operations, but the flood risk is not that high on the main stem of the river, now.

Now we could get a whole bunch of large atmospheric river system coming in that hits the upper snake system and the flood control issues would go away.

But at this point, we're not seeing a large flooding risk from basically the Snake River plain northward.

That's south of the Snake River Plain.

Definitely.

Davlin: All right.

We'll be in wait and see mode then.

David Hoekema, chairman of the Idaho Water Supply Committee, thank you so much for joining us.

Hoekema: Yep, you're welcome.

Davlin: Back at the State House, the Joint Finance Appropriations Committee kicked off the week by passing maintenance budgets for state agencies, voting on about $12 billion in one day.

Idaho Reports has been following changes to the budget setting committee, including passing maintenance budgets at the beginning of the session, then considering additional requests for agencies individually.

Historically, the committee has passed agency budgets in their entireties in the second half of the session.

Associate producer Logan Finney has more online on those changes, including concerns from Democrats who oppose the move.

You'll find the link at IdahoReports.org Also Monday, the House State Affairs Committee heard testimony on a bill that would allow parents to collect damages from libraries if those libraries allow their children to check out material deemed obscene.

The bill would also have allowed patrons to request libraries to move material from youth to adult only sections.

The bill was similar to one that Governor Brad Little vetoed in 2023, though it reduces those civil damages from $2,500 to $250.

Brian Almon: We're not talking about Huckleberry Finn.

We're not talking about To Kill a Mockingbird.

We're not talking about the Bible, as some have suggested.

We're talking really about a few dozen books, many of which are graphic novels in both senses of the word that include extremely vulgar and pornographic imagery.

Isabella Burgess: Representatives, the homophobia in this bill is blatant.

This bill's definition of sexual conduct is incorrect and does not align with widely accepted definitions in any popular dictionary.

Homosexuality does not equate to obscenity.

It is your choice to sexualize children's books.

Robert Wright: I think the practical part of implementing this bill is problematic.

I work in Idaho Falls Public Library.

We're one of the largest libraries in eastern Idaho.

We can't afford to do this.

We cannot afford to have a separate area for just adults.

We have a ramp that goes up to the third floor where adult materials are.

We have an elevator that's not in sight of any staff members that people that are disabled can use.

So our solution, if this were to pass in its current form, is to bar anyone under 18 from the top floor of the library.

Davlin: Most who testified were against that bill, though the committee voted to advance it on party lines.

But on Thursday, the bill's sponsor pulled the legislation, saying he's working on a compromise bill with the Senate.

We'll continue following this story throughout the session.

The House Health and Welfare Committee voted this week to introduce a bill that would reestablish the maternal Mortality review committee.

This time under the Board of Medicine instead of a standalone entity.

Last year, the legislature didn't vote to renew that committee, making Idaho the only state without a maternal mortality review panel.

Chief Justice Richard Bevan gave the state of the judiciary on Wednesday asking lawmakers to support funding for court technology, saying the current funding model through court filings and fees isn't working.

Bevan also noted that between an increase in threats to judges and low pay compared to the private sector, judicial recruitment is difficult.

Chief Justice Richard Bevan: In 2022.

We average just five applicants for each of our district court openings, a number I previously described to you as inadequate and one which is almost a 50% decrease from just seven years ago.

Last year that average dropped below five.

And for openings in our sixth and first judicial districts, only three attorneys applied.

The minimum number that the Idaho Judicial Council is now required to provide the governor for his selection.

Davlin: To watch the full state of the judiciary, head to YouTube.com/IdahoReports or hear highlights on the Idaho Reports podcast.

You can listen wherever you find your podcasts.

On Friday, lawmakers heard testimony on a bill that would establish a mandatory minimum sentence for fentanyl trafficking.

The committee will vote on that bill at a later date.

The bill's journey through committee brought up another issue though, sometimes the legislature fast tracks bills.

The committee introduced the bill on Wednesday, and the bill text didn't go online until Thursday, meaning the public had almost no time to review the legislation or schedule time to come testify.

The abbreviated process drew criticism from the Mountain State's Policy Center.

In December, we discussed the center's recommendation that the legislature have a three day notice before a public hearing on legislation.

You can find our archived episodes at IdahoPTV.org/IdahoReports In other Justice news, on Friday, the Idaho Commission on Pardons and Parole held a commutation hearing for Thomas Creech, Idaho's longest serving death row inmate.

In October, an Ada County Judge issued a death warrant for Creech, who has been on death row for more than 40 years.

The request for a commutation delayed the execution.

Idaho Reports producer Ruth Brown was the pool reporter for the hearing.

For her coverage, visit IdahoReports.org We know what's on lawmakers minds, but what about the average Idahoan?

This week, Boise State University released the results of its of its ninth annual Public Policy survey.

I sat down with Dr. Matthew May and Lantz McGinnis-Brown of the Idaho Policy Institute to discuss what Idahoans are saying.

Thank you both so much for joining us today.

Dr. May, I'll start with you.

You surveyed about 1000 people representing every county in the state.

What was your overall takeaway?

Dr. Matthew May: I think the main takeaway from the survey this year is that for the first time in our surveys history, more Idahoans feel that the state is off on the wrong track rather than headed in the right direction.

This is the first time in the nine years of our survey and even going back so far as 1998 with our school's predecessor survey, this is the first time the negative response has been the top response, which indicates to us that Idahoans have a lot of concern about the overall direction.

Davlin: Did that vary based on who you were talking to.

May: It did.

Republicans generally had a more positive conception of the state's direction.

Democrats had a pessimistic perception.

So did independents.

And newcomers also were generally more positive about the overall direction of the state.

Long time residents who are seeing this growth come in were generally more pessimistic.

Davlin: Oh, that's interesting.

Lantz, I wanted to ask you about legislative priorities that Idahoans have.

What do Idahoans want their lawmakers to be doing while they're in Boise for the next three months?

Lantz McGinnis-Brown: Yeah.

So we asked two separate versions of this question essentially.

We ask overall legislative priorities, and on that list, education tops out as it has many years in a row.

Followed by Sorry, Matthew, I'm forgetting.

May: Budget priorities.

McGinnis-Brown: Followed by budget priorities.

And then housing has come in third.

And housing has been rising over the years.

And those priorities are pretty similar across parties.

Davlin: Well, when we're talking about education, what specifically are people concerned about?

Is it funding?

Is it quality school choice?

What's on their mind?

McGinnis-Brown: Yeah, this time around, if somebody said we ask folks what they think about the quality of Idaho's K-12 education system, and if somebody said fair or poor this time around, we asked why.

And largely their responses revolved around educational quality, quality of teachers, teacher support.

And.

May: Academic quality and teacher support, and then policy and programmatic changes.

McGinnis-Brown: Policy and programmatic changes.

Sorry.

Davlin: No worries at all.

We talked about library bills earlier in the show.

This is the third session in a row that we are talking about how libraries deal with materials that might not be appropriate for children.

Where are Idahoans on this Dr. May?

May: Generally, so we asked whether Idahoans trust public libraries and librarians to make the decisions about what books are offered and available in them.

When we combine those that have a lot of trust or some trust.

Over 60% of Idahoans say that they trust the libraries and librarians to make those decisions.

Even when we break this out by party, it's over 60%, regardless of party identification.

Now, the one thing that we will say is that the Republican support is generally a little bit softer in that only about 28% said that they have a lot of trust compared to 40% of independents or 58% of Democrats.

Suggesting that Republicans are the ones that generally have more concerns.

But still, trust is kind of high across the board.

Davlin: Probably not a surprise there.

You know, speaking of Republicans, the presidential caucus is coming up in less than two months.

You asked Idahoans how they feel about primary versus caucuses, where what did you hear from them?

May: Overwhelmingly, Idahoans say that they prefer to have a primary over a caucus.

About 74% of Idahoans said that they would prefer a primary.

And then when we followed up that question by asking, would you prefer that these be held on the same day, or on separate days, to try to get at that March primary versus May primary issue, again, a similar majority of Idahoans, about 74%, said that they would prefer them to be held on the same day.

So Idahoans favor a primary and they favor it being held on the same day as state primary.

Davlin: Did that vary based on whether you were talking to a Republican or an Independent or a Democrat?

May: Very little.

Across the board, all party identifications favored a primary and holding elections on the same day.

I think Democrats were the highest on a primary.

Republicans were second highest on the primary.

Republicans were the highest on same day and followed by Democrats and independents.

Davlin: You also asked about top four primary versus ranked choice voting versus our current system.

What did Idahoans tell you?

May: So we took pains to explain to them exactly how a top four primary system would work and a ranked choice ballot system would work, and then ask them whether they would favor or oppose such a system.

A majority of Idahoans said that they would favor a top four system.

A majority of Idahoans said that they would oppose a ranked choice system.

The ballot initiative currently under consideration would kind of implement both of these together.

And when we looked at the two questions to see what proportion of Idahoans favored both.

That was about 29%.

About 6% favored just the ranked choice system.

About 29% favored just a top four system and about 23% opposed both systems.

Davlin: Did you ask specifically about the the ballot initiative that is being circulated right now, though?

May: We didn't ask specifically about the ballot initiative, we just kind of separated out the proportion that would or the portion that would affect the May primary and the portion that would affect the general election.

So that's the top four system in May.

And then the ranked choice system in November.

And we wanted to see if Idahoans felt differently about the different components and our results suggest that, ye Davlin: Lantz, one of the policy considerations that Idahoans want lawmakers to talk about is housing.

What specifically did you hear when it came to housing?

McGinnis-Brown: Yeah, we asked a pretty good battery of housing questions this time around.

We asked folks if housing has presented some kind of financial strain for themselves or their households.

And overall, a little bit more than half of Idahoan's said that, yes, housing has put some kind of financial strain on their households and that number rises to more than 70% among renters.

And when we also asked even to an increasing degree, if folks have had to move out of their housing due to financial strains, 9% overall said that they had had to move out and that number boosts to almost a fifth of renters overall.

Davlin: So very different viewpoints based on whether you're talking to an Idahoan who's a homeowner versus whether they're renting.

Did you see that in any other questions, that renter versus homeowner divide?

McGinnis-Brown: Well, one thing we also saw is that younger Idahoans are more likely to be housing insecure, and that may also tie to that renter divide, more younger Idahoans rent than those over 45.

May: I'd also just add there that renters were also 15 points more likely to think the state was headed in the wrong direction than homeowners.

Davlin: How about abortion?

You asked survey respondents how they felt about the current law.

What did you hear?

May: About a third of Idahoans say that they favor the status quo and keeping Idaho's law as is, which bans it after six weeks, with very few exceptions, about 58.

Davlin: Total ban.

Total at this point.

May: And so about 58% say they favor changing Idaho's existing law, but they disagree on exactly how far or what those changes should be.

I think it was about a quarter favor expanding exceptions to include the health of the mother in non-viable pregnancies.

Then I believe it was another 20 some percent that favor expanding exceptions up through the third trimester.

And then about 19% favor no restrictions of any kind.

So there is a majority that wants to see change, but they're just not in full agreement on how extensive those changes should be.

Davlin: We have about 30 seconds left.

Friday saw a lengthy hearing on mandatory minimums for fentanyl trafficking.

You asked about mandatory minimums for drug related offenses.

What did you hear?

May: About 48% of Idahoans say that they would favor mandatory minimum sentences, in some cases, drug cases like fentanyl and heroin.

Less say that they would favor it in all cases or no mandatory minimums at all.

So there does seem to be large support for at least mandatory minimums in certain cases.

Davlin: All right.

Dr. Matthew May, Lantz McGinnis-Brown, Idaho Policy Institute, thank you both so much for joining me.

May: Thank you for having us.

Davlin: We have the link to that survey on our website.

IdahoReports.org Here to discuss that and so much more on education as Kevin Richert of Idaho Education News.

Kevin, you were at the press conference where the Idaho policy Institute researchers unveiled their findings.

What stood out to you?

Kevin Richert: I was really surprised by the support and the interest in trying to address workplace housing and affordable housing.

I mean, you had respondents say that this is the top funding priority that they see in the 2024 legislative session, even as respondents said, as they have for years, that they consider education to be the most important issue in the state.

I was really surprised by that.

Davlin: Yeah, absolutely.

They also I'll note, we talked about this with with Dr. May the library bills people generally trust their librarians to steer children toward appropriate material.

Richert: Very strong support for librarians and the work that they do.

And it'll be interesting to see how that survey response informs or doesn't inform the the debate that we're going to see about library bills.

That is really the debate just beginning.

Davlin: Well, let's chat about that a little bit, because this is session number three where we are talking about libraries and content that is appropriate for children and what to do about it.

We know that the bills that have already been introduced aren't going anywhere.

We know there's a compromise that is in the works.

Where might that debate go?

Richert: I'm going to be very interested to see what that compromise bill turns out to be, if indeed there turns out to be a compromise bill.

Because the two bills that we've seen so far on school libraries especially, very different emphasis.

Jaron Crane, as he did last year, is really focused on content.

Davlin: And he's the house sponsor.

Richert: He's the house sponsor.

He's the sponsor of House Bill 384.

That's the bill that passed out of House state affairs earlier this week.

Despite a lot of testimony and opposition.

Jaron Crane's bill focuses on content and focuses on harmful materials.

That's the phrase that gets all people very excited about this bill, the bill that we saw on the Senate side, which evidently is going nowhere, focused much more on process.

It focused much more on how do school libraries deal with questions about content.

And it calls for creating committees to deal with content.

It addresses the process of how do you address an objection from a parent or student.

Much more focused on process than material.

So do you put together a bill that addresses both and combines elements of both or do the the various sides in this debate, do they not find a compromise?

I would be interested to see what they come up with.

I'll be interested to see how it how it plays with the Idaho Library Association, which right now was kind of noncommittal.

A lot to see.

But the difference you mentioned third year of this debate.

The first two years, though, this was the last bill the legislature dealt with.

This year it's one of the first bills they're dealing with.

So at least they're taking their time anyway.

Davlin: That tells me that lawmakers are, Republican lawmakers who support this are very serious about getting some version of this through.

Richert: They want to get something done.

That much is clear.

Davlin: And I'm curious about the subjectivity questions about what constitutes harmful material.

So, as always, we'll keep following this.

Other news in the legislature this week, your colleague Ryan Suppe at Idaho Education News wrote about the Blane Amendment.

Can you talk a little bit about what that is and why it matters to lawmakers so much?

Richert: First of all, what Ryan did was some great reporting and really goes back to the history of the Blane amendment, which is a part of our original Constitution, something I didn't realize until I read his story.

The Blane Amendment, in a nutshell, is a constitutional prohibition against using public dollars to support religious enterprises, including religious schools.

Almost, I want to say about three dozen states in the union have very similar amendments in their constitution.

There have been moves to try to repeal that amendment for years.

We've had a constitutional amendment already introduced in the legislature this year that would aim for repeal.

It's tough to repeal something because, again, you need two thirds support in both houses.

Then it needs to go to voters.

So it's an uphill battle.

But it all ties into this debate about school choice, for lack of a better term.

About putting money into education, savings accounts or tax credits or whatever vehicle you want to use to try to get public dollars into private education.

Davlin: And this is, you know, decades of this conversation.

You know, you mentioned that Ryan wrote that this was in the original Constitution in Idaho specifically.

This is not a new debate.

Richert: It's not a new debate.

And going back to the Boise State survey, one of the things I thought was really interesting about the Boise State survey, they asked a question about the idea of whether voters support the idea of moving public dollars into private education.

Pretty close split, slight lead, slightly in favor, but not by a great majority or anything like that.

And the difference is along party lines.

And differences when the researchers asked, how do you feel about this kind of a move if it compromises public school funding?

Then you get a different response.

So a deep split within the electorate about this issue.

Davlin: Absolutely.

Well, and a deep split too within the Republican Party.

This isn't just a partizan issue, there are different sides, even among conservatives.

Richert: And different perspectives between the Senate Education Committee and the House Education Committee, both overwhelmingly Republican, very different views about these types of bills.

Davlin: We've got about 2 minutes left.

Can you update us on empowering parents and what the governor is recommending for the program?

Richert: This was one of the surprises of the week.

Alex Adams, the governor's budget guy, spoke to the Joint Finance Appropriations Committee earlier this week and said if the legislature, if JFAC specifically, goes along with a more conservative revenue estimate, one of the ways they're recommending trying to fit the budget under that more conservative revenue estimate is to get rid of empowering parents.

Davlin: And empowering parents is a grant program to address learning loss and helping students, helping families with learning costs at home.

Richert: It's a $30 million a year micro grant program that puts money into families hands to pay for a laptop or pay for better Internet access or whatever they feel like they need at home.

This has been one of Governor Little's pet education projects for several years in different iterations.

It was only in December, right before Christmas, that the governor released an independent audit of the first year of empowering parents, which had some problems in the first year.

The audit was generally clean.

It kind of downplayed the number of errors and improper purchases, and at that time, Governor Little declared the program a resounding success.

That's a month ago.

Now it's on the chopping block.

It's a very interesting turn of events.

Davlin: it's interesting.

You know, and disclosure.

I have a student who benefited from empowering parents and received a grant, and the families I talked to who have received empowering parent grants, it was it was a pretty popular program.

It is, continues to be a pretty popular program.

Right.

Richert: And they're getting thousands of applications on this next cycle of empowering parents right now.

Davlin: Any indication what else education related might be on the chopping block?

We have about 30 seconds left.

Richert: Right now, that seems to be the issue that is most in jeopardy.

But, you know, long legislative session to go.

And, you know, we don't know what's going to happen with Idaho launch.

We know there's going to be a scrutiny over that.

We haven't even seen the first contours of what a school facilities bill or school facilities proposal might look like.

I mean, it was just barely, you know, less than two weeks ago that we were hearing about this $200 million a year proposal from the governor.

Davlin: You know, lots to keep an eye on.

Kevin Richert, Idaho Education News, thanks for joining us and thank you for watching.

We'll see you right back here next week.

Narrator: Presentation of Idaho Reports on Idaho Public Television is made possible through the generous support of the Laura Moore Cunningham Foundation, committed to fulfilling the Moore and Bettis family legacy of building the great state of Idaho.

By the Friends of Idaho Public Television.

And by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.